23
2012
R.A. Dickey vs. Gio Gonzalez: The Stats You Didn’t Know
An article by 
R.A. Dickey. Gio Gonzalez. Both pitchers are gunning for the Cy Young Award. Only one will get it (assuming we don’t have a tie a la the 1979 NL MVP vote that got Keith Hernandez a co-MVP Award).
You can go to any site and find comparisons between the two. Anyone will tell you that Gonzalez leads Dickey by one win and that Dickey leads Gonzalez in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, shutouts and complete games. But what about the stats you didn’t know that should swing the Cy Young vote completely over to Dickey?
Here are those stats. Once you read them, you’ll have no doubt that R.A. Dickey should claim the top prize as the best pitcher in the National League.
R.A. Dickey is a knuckleball pitcher, but is only averaging 1.7 walks per start. Only five pitchers in the National League (Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Harang, Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Zambrano) have walked more batters than Gio Gonzalez.
Despite not possessing a 90-mph fastball, R.A. Dickey has allowed only three stolen bases in six attempts. Meanwhile, opposing base runners have a 92% success rate against Gio Gonzalez, going 11-for-12 against the Nationals’ ace.
Gio Gonzalez has been lifted from three games this year in which the Nationals did not have the lead at the time of his removal, but got credit for the win when his offense gave him the lead in the half inning immediately following his removal. Dickey has only earned one win in this way. If not for the Nationals’ timely hitting after his removal, Gonzalez would only have 17 wins, one less than the 18 Dickey would have if not for the sole occasion the Mets bailed him out.
The Nationals have scored seven runs or more in half of Gonzalez’s 20 victories. The Mets have scored five runs or less in thirteen of Dickey’s 19 wins.
Gio Gonzalez has 21 quality starts (six or more innings pitched allowing three earned runs or less) out of his 31 starts. He has also failed to get through the sixth inning in seven starts. Dickey has 25 quality starts and has pitched at least six innings in all but two of his 31 starts.
Finally, Gio Gonzalez has 20 wins, but he’s done it for the the team with the best record in baseball. R.A. Dickey has won one less game than Gonzalez for a team that has 24 fewer wins. Similarly, Gonzalez has two more losses on a 59-loss team than Dickey has for an 83-loss team.
When in doubt, vote for the guy who makes a Dickeyface when he throws a pitch.
More often that not, the MVP Award goes to a player with the most impressive numbers on a team that’s at or near the top of its division. This is not always the case for the recipient of the Cy Young Award.
Five of the last six Cy Young Award winners in the National League played for teams that failed to make the playoffs, with the sole exception being Roy Halladay in 2010. Two of those five winners pitched for teams that finished with losing records. (Brandon Webb won the award in 2006 for the 76-86 Diamondbacks, while Tim Lincecum earned his hardware in 2008 for a 72-90 Giants team.)
The award is not called the Most Valuable Pitcher Award. It’s called the Cy Young Award. It’s given to the best pitcher in each league. Gio Gonzalez has had an excellent season, one that is usually worthy of the league’s top pitching honor, but R.A. Dickey has been the best pitcher in the National League this year.
Let’s hope the voters consider every bit of statistical information available to them before they cast their votes and don’t turn the Cy Young Award into the MVP (Most Valuable Pitcher) Award. They’re more than welcome to use the statistical facts from this piece to help them make their decision.
About the Author: Ed Leyro
Ed Leyro was hatched in the Bronx, but spent most of his youth in Queens at Shea Stadium. Apparently, all that time spent at Mets games paid off as Ed met his wife (The Coop) for the first time at Citi Field during its inaugural season. Guess the 2009 season was good for something after all. In addition to his work at Mets Merized Online, Ed also owns, operates and is head janitor at Studious Metsimus, where he shares blogging duties with Joey Beartran. For those not in the know, Joey is a teddy bear dressed in a Mets hoodie. Clearly, Studious Metsimus is not your typical Mets blog.
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Great article Ed. It’s not so hard to win 20 when your team scores 7 runs half the time, not so easy to win 19 when your team struggles to score 3 runs a game at home. Dickey is having a once in a lifetime season for a knuckleball pitcher. It’s extremely unlikely that he can duplicate that kind of success, particularly the BB/9 IP ratio and SB against stats, again. It would be a shame if he did not get properly acknowledged for his outstanding season with the Cy Young this season.
Ed, excellent article and extremely informative. Justice says that RA deserves this award.
Great article.
Too bad the majority that have a vote often don’t take into account the entire picture, as you’ve done here. ‘Old school’ indeed.
I especially don’t understand the mindset of leaning towards giving the nod to the pitcher on a contending team vs. a poor team. I think it says more that a pitcher who manages to put up these types of numbers with poor defense behind him and lack of run support can still pitch that good.
I’m still holding hope that those voting remember how the vote went for King Felix. His W/L record was not that great, on a bad tea, no run sport, and they saw through that. Fingers crossed!
Kay, that’s an excellent point. Maybe he can pull this off after all.
think of how sick Dickey’s numbers would have been without that rain game in Atlanta where he was dominating until he had to pitch in a downpour.
Your wish is my command!
Without that April 18 loss in Atlanta, in which he allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings, Dickey would be 19-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.015 WHIP.
Actually, Turner Field has been a house of horrors for Dickey this year, as his second shortest outing of the season also came in Atlanta. (5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB on July 14). In his 29 non-Turner Field starts this year, Dickey has a 2.22 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Great post, Ed Leyro. I can see the reasoning for giving the MVP to a player on a winning team, but you are spot on regarding the CYA which should go to the best pitcher hands down regardless of where his team is in the standings. The fact Dickey has achieved this success with this bad Mets team should count for him not against him. Again, great post.
Nice comparisons. It may not win him the Cy Young Award but it looks like right now, he deserves it. But “ifs” don’t count. The writers don’t look at ifs. We always said if Tom Seaver played for a winner……..
R.A. all the way. Ed’s work proves it. Thanks.
Right on top of it Ed, pointing out the one biggest aspects that separates pitchers – their run support. The really great ones can pitch under the pressure of a close game and knowing he has to be even more careful with his pitches because with the lack of runs given to him to work with, allowing two or three would be enough to lose the game.
In the mid-sixties the joke with the Dodgers weak hitting was that a pitcher needed to toss a shutout in order to tie.
And as far as the awarding of the Cy Young goes, don’t forget in 1971 Steve Carlton got it pitching for the last place Phillies. So perhaps the Mets should let Florida pass them in the standings so R.A.’s pitching performance can stand out even more.
Did you people actually read the article? It clearly states that the Cy Young doesn’t necessarily have to be on a contending team. Great article Ed but I don’t like where you say that Gonzalez was removed and they immediately scored. That’s baseball and it gets a wine nonetheless. Thanks to Dickey for giving the mets fans something to roote for in the second half.