Series Preview: Mets Return Home to Greet the Veteran Cardinals

The New York Mets (13-11) are back home after a 3-3 road trip, securing two wins over the Los Angeles Dodgers and one against the San Francisco Giants. Francisco Álvarez did hit the injured list with a torn ligament in his left thumb while the team was out west, but the Metropolitans are finally set to have J.D. Martinez available for their homestand. The Mets will get their first look at the St. Louis Cardinals (11-14), who are currently last in the tightly-contest National League Central. Oliver Marmol, a manager under a lot of pressure, will look to lead the Cardinals to their second straight series win after taking two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this week. Let’s take a more in-depth look at the three pitching matchups in this series.

Friday, April 26, 2024: RHP Miles Mikolas (1-3, 6.49 ERA) vs. RHP José Butto (0-0, 1.65 ERA)

Miles Mikolas was an All-Star for the second time in his career in 2022. Since then, he is 10-16 with a 4.98 ERA in 227 2/3 innings. It has been a difficult stretch for Mikolas, who is giving up more home runs and more hits than he ever has. In 2023, he led the league in hits allowed, earned runs and batters faced. The veteran right-hander gave up a season-high three home runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, a game in which the Cardinals lost 12-5. Mikolas will try to bounce back at Citi Field, a ballpark he has a 5.54 career ERA in.

José Butto has been one of the unsung heroes of the Mets’ early season turnaround, providing critical innings at the backend of the rotation. While he has been very good, his last outing against the Dodgers was stressful to say the least. Butto got himself into trouble with five walks, but he was ultimately able to limit the damage in his 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers only mustered three runs against him (two earned), striking out six times along the way. Butto has thrived at home, owning a 2.67 career ERA in 30 1/3 innings at Citi Field.

Saturday, April 27, 2024: RHP Sonny Gray (2-1, 1.04 ERA) vs. Adrian Houser (0-2, 7.45 ERA)

Sonny Gray was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball last season, and that has not changed with his new team. He gave up no runs over his first two starts, and last time out, he had 12 strikeouts in a losing effort against the Brewers. Gray does not throw a fastball that reaches the upper-90s, but he is able to hit his spots and force hitters to expand the zone. The right-hander was able to record a season-high 93 pitches in his last start, so he appears to be stretched out in that regard. Gray has won all of his three career starts against the Mets, pitching to an impressive 2.60 ERA in 17 1/3 innings.

Adrian Houser has struggled with command throughout his first four starts with the Mets, allowing 14 walks over his first 19 1/3 innings pitched. He worked his way in and out of trouble for a little while, but that luck ran out against the Dodgers last weekend as he got tagged for eight runs on seven hits and four walks through just four innings. If this trend continues for him, the Mets may look to Christian Scott or Joey Lucchesi to give the Mets a new look in the rotation with Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill currently on the shelf. Houser is quite familiar with the Cardinals after spending parts of seven seasons with the Brewers. He is 5-6 with a 3.07 ERA against them in his career.

Sunday, April 28, 2024: RHP Lance Lynn (1-0, 2.81 ERA) vs. José Quintana (1-2, 4.21 ERA)

Many were unsure about the prospects of Lance Lynn returning to St. Louis given his performance over the last two seasons. However, the early signs show that coming back to the organization he started his career with could have been the best thing for him. Over his last three starts, Lynn is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 17 innings. Limiting the home run ball has helped him tremendously, dropping from a career-high 2.3 HR/9 last year to 1.4 HR/9 in five starts this season. Lynn has been a thorn in the side of the Mets previously, owning a 2.33 ERA in nine career appearances against them.

José Quintana has been good in spurts during the early portion of the season, but the walks have really hurt him. The left-hander is allowing 4.9 walks per nine, his highest total since 2021. That has forced him to fight his way through a lot of longer innings, giving him less of a chance to pitch deeper into games. That was on display in Monday’s loss against the Giants, where he surrendered five runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings of work. Quintana has thrown no more than 5 2/3 innings in a start, so the Mets would love to see him complete at least six innings on Sunday. He has made 13 starts against the Cardinals in his career, going 6-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 65 innings.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

J.D. Martinez (NYM)

The obvious choice for the Mets is Martinez, who is set to make his debut for the team later tonight. His presence in the middle of the order is expected to give the lineup a massive boost. Martinez should fit in as the No. 5 hitter, providing much-needed protection for Pete Alonso. The 36-year-old had a fantastic 2023 season with the Dodgers, one that resulted in him being named an All-Star for the sixth time in his career as he put up 33 home runs, 103 runs batted in and a .893 OPS over 479 plate appearances.

Masyn Winn (STL)

The two top prospects in the Cardinals’ system from a season ago have gone in completely different directions. Jordan Walker has yet to find success in the big leagues, but the same cannot be said for Masyn Winn. The 22-year-old shortstop has wasted no time getting comfortable in an everyday role, recording a hit in 14 of his first 23 games this year. Winn leads the team in triples with three and stolen bases with four, getting caught on just one occasion. This is off the back of slashing .172/.230/.238/.467 in 137 plate appearances in 2023.