One of the many questions that faces Sandy Alderson this offseason is who will be at second base for the New York Mets come Opening Day?
The Mets have a slew of good options they could go with at second. Neil Walker seems to be at the top of the list but is coming off back surgery and could become a free agent.
On paper, it would seem like a no-brainer to give a player coming off arguably the best offensive season of his career a qualifying offer. Walker posted a career best .823 OPS in 2016 while tying a career high with 23 home runs and played a solid defensive second base. However, Walker had back surgery surgery last month and the qualifying offer this year is up to $17.2 million. Making it a tough decision for the Mets front office on whether they should risk that much of their payroll on a 31 year old only two months removed from a major surgery.
Not only did Walker tie a career high in homers but he also posted a career high 9.2% walk rate. According to FanGraphs he was also the Mets most valuable position player this year with a 3.7 fWAR, above the 3.2 fWAR of Yoenis Cespedes.
In the absence of Walker came about the solid major league debut by 27 year old utility guy T.J. Rivera. In 113 plate appearances, Rivera hit .333/.345/.476 with four doubles, a triple, three home runs and 16 runs driven in. That’s after hitting .324/.371/.434 during his minor league career with the Mets.
That is the good news with Rivera. The bad is that he swung at 44.1% of pitches out of the strike zone in the majors, the fifth highest mark in the majors last year with at least 100 plate appearances. The 44.1% set a new Mets team record (tracked since 2002), passing Rod Barajas‘ 43.8% from 2010. Rivera tied for the third lowest walk percentage in the majors this year at 2.7%, only A.J. Pierzynski and Gerardo Parra walked less often.
Did Rivera have a great first season with the Mets? Of course, but he’s highly unlikely to repeat having an OPS over .800 while barely walking and swinging at everything out of the zone.
The next option for the Mets 2017 second base job is prospect Gavin Cecchini who went 2 for 6 is in his big league cup of coffee this year. Cecchini struggled defensively for the second straight season at the shortstop position making 33 errors this year after 28 in 2015. He did end the season with a 18-game errorless streak at short.
Cecchini also started the transition to second, playing three of his final five minor league games of the year there. Cecchini is currently playing the Arizona Fall League where he’s played one game at second base and three at short. The value for Cecchini comes from the offensive side, in which he’s posted an OPS over .800 two years in a row while striking out only 110 times compared to 90 walks during that span.
The Mets also have Wilmer Flores who continues to get better as hitter, Asdrubal Cabrera who played almost exclusively second base for the Nationals in 2014, Jose Reyes who could become a super utility guy, and then there’s Kelly Johnson who they could look to re-sign.
What happens at second base hinges on many factors including if Cespedes comes back and whether the Mets decide to give Walker a qualifying offer (and his decision on that). If Cespedes returns they could decide to go the cheap route at second base with some combination of Rivera, Cecchini and Johnson.
Whichever the way the Mets decide to go they should have plenty of options on the bench in case the initial starter falters. Who do you think should be the Mets primary second baseman in 2017?
