Pete Alonso, 1B
Player Data: Age: 28 (12/07/1994), B/T: R/R
Primary Stats: 154 G, 658 PA, 568 AB, .217/.318/.504/.822, 123 H, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 92 R 21 2B, 2 3B, 4 SB
Advanced Stats: 121 wRC+, 22.9% K%, 9.9% BB%, .205 BABIP, .370 xwOBA, 2.8 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR
2023 Salary: $14.5 million
Grade: B+
2023 Recap
Pete Alonso can be a streaky hitter, and 2023 was his streakiest year.
He started the year with 10 homers in his first 21 games and looked on his way to another career year. Over the next four weeks, though, Alonso produced just 17 hits in 27 games. Though seven were still home runs—he ended with 46, after all—he was struggling to do any damage outside of his dingers. But just as he started to heat back up, Charlie Morton hit him in the wrist with a fastball. (Braves fans cheered. It wasn’t the last time.) He spent 10 days on the injured list. It took a while for Alonso to get hot again.
Still, Alonso ended the year with 46 home runs—his second most in any season. But he also had the lowest batting average (.217) and on-base percentage (.318) he’s had in five seasons (four of them full). Most of that can be chalked up pretty poor luck. It’s easy to say, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) stood at just .205. In three other full seasons, his BABIP remarkably landed between .274 and .280. That’s over 1,700 at-bats, and his batting average when he puts it in play was… basically the same! But in 2023, that dropped 75 points. That will plunge your batting average.
Other baseline metrics—his hard-hit rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate—were all pretty similar to past averages, though he hit more fly balls. (Partly why he hit more home runs, and partly why he hit fewer balls for doubles.)
But the end result—bad luck, be damned—was still pretty solid. His .822 OPS leaves a bit to be desired, but Alonso tied Howard Johnson for fourth all-time in Mets homers in just four-and-a-half seasons. He’s been the anchor of the Mets’ lineup since his rookie season in 2019. He’s been the most consistent power hitter in baseball over five years. His defense at first base remained playable—and, at times, good.
Those are all of the signs of a franchise player, right?
2024 Outlook
But there lies the rub.
Alonso is entering the final year of his team control in 2024, and he’s projected to make $22 million. Proactive franchises would’ve locked Alonso down a couple of years ago, but with the Mets’ front office turnover, the last half-decade has made that tough.
His final month-and-a-half of the season was mired with buzz of trades that never happened. His leadership was oddly questioned by people who don’t spend a minute in the clubhouse. Reporters asked if he wanted to stay in Queens. Of course, he does.
But that will be up to David Stearns, the new president of baseball operations. One of his first big moves will be negotiations—or lack thereof—with Alonso. Could he trade him this offseason? Well, at his press conference, he said he expects Alonso to be the Opening Day first baseman next year. That’s most likely to happen. But will he be hundreds of millions of dollars richer? Or will we have this conversation again when Alonso reaches free agency with Scott Boras (like Brandon Nimmo)?
If he’s in a Mets uniform, he has a chance to pass David Wright for second all-time in Mets history. David Wright! He’ll need to hit 51 to do it. But the big question the next couple of months—and throughout next year—will be: Will Pete Alonso be a Met for the long haul?
