Jose Quintana’s Struggles Run Deeper Than Just His Last Start

Entering the season, arguably the biggest question mark surrounding the New York Mets was their starting rotation. After beginning the season strong, the unit has regressed mightily to where several feared it may project to be prior to the season. Specifically, prior to Saturday’s game, the unit ranks 21st in staff ERA (4.34) and 20th in staff WAR (1.8). Earlier on in the season, these numbers ranked near the top in the major leagues.

One of the main contributors to these struggles is veteran Jose Quintana. The Mets’ Opening Day starter owns a 5.20 ERA after seven starts. He has tossed 36 1/3 innings allowing 40 hits, walking 16, and only striking out 25. His most recent start was a disaster where he allowed eight runs and 10 hits while lasting only 2 2/3 innings in a game the Mets eventually lost 10-8.

Quintana did have an eight inning start just one game prior to Friday’s disaster where he allowed only one run, however, a deeper dive into that start does paint a picture of some luck. He only generated nine swing-and-misses across 24 outs and allowed nine hard-hit balls. At the end of the day the actual results are all that matters, however, signs of impending regression peaked through during that solid start as well.

Overall, thus far this season, Quintana’s analytical profile stacks up as one of the worst in the major leagues. Of 129 qualified starting pitchers this season, Quintana owns the fourth-highest xBA (.317), 16th-highest xSLG (.480), and is generating swing-and-misses at the ninth-lowest (17.8%) rate. All this has culminated in an xERA of 6.00 (ninth percentile) and 4.49 xFIP.

After getting stronger actual results than expected for most of the season, that regression reared its ugly head big time in Quintana’s disastrous last start against Tampa Bay. Maybe not to that extent, but those kind of results resemble much more the results Quintana has deserved from his pitching this season.

As far as his pitch profile goes, two of the four pitches he throws at least 10% of the time has an xBA above .300. His sinker, which generated a batting average against of only .196 last season (.236 xBA), has an xBA of .302 this year. Meanwhile, his curveball has been one of the worst pitches in the big leagues this year, generating an xBA of .391. Another pitch that has regressed big time for him.

For comparison’s sake, manager Carlos Mendoza announced earlier in the week that starting pitcher Adrian Houser, who has struggled mightily (8.16 ERA) is being moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen. His analytical profile matches up very similarly to the struggling Quintana:

	xERA	xBA	Avg. Exit Velo.	Strikeout Rate	Walk Rate
Jose Quintana	9th percentile	3rd percentile	52nd percentile	10th pecentile	10th percentile
Adrian Houser	6th percentile	14th percentile	4th percentile	2nd percentile	9th percentile

Quintana is now 35 years old and is on pace for once again seeing his expected numbers take another step back from where they were in the previous season. Back in 2021, Quintana had a disastrous season posting a 6.43 ERA across only 63 innings. He figured it out in 2022, putting together arguably the best season of his career (2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 165 2/3 innings). The Mets then signed him in 2023 where he missed a majority of the year with injury before coming back and put up so-so numbers. Now, he is looking more like his 2021 self.

If New York is serious about contending for a playoff spot this year, they need Quintana to find some of the form he had last year. Albeit, the results on the surface last season were much better than the expected statistics (3.57 ERA versus 4.55 xERA). However, that would be much more serviceable than the pitcher has shown to be through seven starts this year.

If not, and these type of results keep coming, would the Mets remove another starter from their rotation? The 35-year-old veteran is slated to be a free agent at year’s end and New York suddenly has a surplus of potential replacements on the horizon. Namely, Christian Scott just made his debut while Joey Lucchesi has put up strong results in Triple-A (2.25 ERA through six games). Not to mention, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Tylor Megill are all nearing returns from injury.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Savant and Fangraphs.