On April 27th, the Mets had a record of 15-5 and were eight games ahead of the Washington Nationals.
According to the Postseason Probabilities chart on mlb.com, the Mets had a 68% chance of making the postseason, which was their high water mark for the season.
After being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Mets were at their season’s low with now just a 28% chance of making the postseason.
On April 27th, the only two teams who had a better postseason probability than the Mets were the Los Angeles Dodgers (94%) and the St. Louis Cardinals (71%). On June 20th, the Mets were trailing the Cardinals (97%), Dodgers (86%), Nationals (74%), Cubs (65%), Pirates (64%), and Giants (51%).
There is still plenty of season left to go, and with a 36-35 record, just 1.5 games behind the Nationals, the division and postseason is very much within reach.
However, six runs in the last five games, squandering outstanding performances from aces Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, and consistently poor defense isn’t going to cut it. The question is, who is going to step up?
Let’s be clear – the Mets are in a much better place than they’ve been for years. They’re just a big bat away from being very, very dangerous. Their postseason odds are at 28%. Where have they been on June 21 in recent years?
2014 – 3%
2013 – 1%
2012 – 24%
The Mets never reached above 16% during the 2014 campaign. That was their high water mark on April 30 when their record stood at 15-11.
The last time the Mets were above 28% was during the 2013 season when on April 8 they had a 5-2 record.
The 2012 team made it as high as 40% on July 3, when the team had a 44-37 record. They were sitting 3.5 games behind the Nationals in the East. It’s hard to remember that the team was seven games above .500 that late in the season in recent years, but they were.
The Mets eventually ran out of gas in 2012 and finished with a 74-88 record, 24 full games behind the Nationals and 14 games out in the wildcard.
After the collapses in 2007 and 2008 and the freefall in 2012, is it really any surprise that all the fan enthusiasm over this season’s 15-5 start has already been replaced with gloom and the expectation of another deflating collapse and disappointing year?
It’s up to ownership and the front office to change the perception. Too often there’s been a lot of lip service and not nearly enough accompanying action.
The quick answer might be to pull the trigger on a trade, but who are we going to get to spark the offense and solidify the defense? The available options don’t seem to fit any of the Mets’ needs.
And nobody is interested in giving away one of our golden arms just to roll the dice on a one or two year rental.
The odds may not be in our favor right now, but we’re still very much in the hunt. The question is, what happens next?