When Sandy Alderson made his 90 win challenge earlier this year, the inference was to make the playoffs. Getting 90 wins almost assuredly gets you into the playoffs.
Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 80 teams that have reached that 90 win mark. Under the current playoff format with two wildcard teams, 78 of those 80 teams would have been in the postseason. That’s a 97.5% clip. The only two teams that failed to make the post season were the 2013 Texas Rangers who fell short with 91 wins and the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays who just missed with 90 wins.
From 2004-2011 when there was only one wildcard in each league, there were six teams that achieved the 90 win mark and came up short. Three were exactly at 90 wins (2011 Red Sox, 2010 Padres, 2006 White Sox), another two were at 91 wins (2004 Giants and A’s). The 2005 Cleveland Indians won 93 games and didn’t get into the dance. Under the current playoff format, all of those teams would have made the postseason.
As I previously wrote, the Mets Math doesn’t add up for them to make the playoffs. Have teams that started poorly made the playoffs? Yes. Can the Mets go on a stretch and get themselves back into playoff contention? Technically, yes. But that’s not likely.
As of end of play on May 28th, the Mets would need to go 66-44 through the final 112 games and play at a .600 clip. That’s the equivalent of 98 wins over a full season. They need to play like a 98 win team the rest of the way. This isn’t going to happen.
What kind of team does the rest of the National League need to play like to reach the 90 win mark? (Through games played 5/26)
Braves – They need to play like a 90 win team.
Marlins – 93
Nationals – 95
Phillies – 97
Brewers – 88
Cardinals – 91
Pirates – 97
Reds – 98
Cubs – 102
Giants – 85
Dodgers – 91
Rockies – 92
Padres – 99
D-Backs – 103
The Mets are struggling. They’re not the only ones that are especially in the NL East. There are only two teams that don’t need to play like a 90 win team the rest of the way to make it to 90 wins.
Nobody in the National League is running away with it at the moment. 90 wins wouldn’t be needed to make either of the two Wildcard spots that are up for grabs.
The Mets not out of it yet… but the time is slipping away fast.
They need to make a turnaround, and they need to do it fast. 90 wins? Unlikely. But 90 wins may not be needed this year.