It’s a WAR: Stephen Drew Vs. Ruben Tejada

stephen drew

By now, every Mets fan in America must be tired of seeing stories about Stephen Drew and Ruben Tejada, and Ike Davis and the first base situation.

I hate to say it, but they aren’t going to go away until the Mets either make a move, or spring training starts.

The latest in the Mets’ shortstop saga seems to be a post that was put up on Fangraphs earlier today entitled The Problem With Stephen Drew’s Market, by Jeff Sullivan. Sullivan does a nice job trying to explain that the reason why Drew is still available is because he doesn’t provide a good enough upgrade over what teams already have in place.

It makes sense. A major issue with Drew is that the teams that could use him, can’t afford him and the ones that can afford him, don’t need him. 

Why spend the money on a player if there is no upgrade? I’m sure people are thinking the Mets are mulling that over right now as we speak.

But they aren’t.

The Mets have made up their mind that they want Drew and it’s just a matter of waiting him out to get a team-friendly deal. If the Mets didn’t want Drew, we wouldn’t be hearing about their discussions with Drew’s agent, Scott Boras, on almost a daily basis. The Mets know what Sullivan correctly pointed out in his article—that the Mets are really the only team out there where Drew represents a good enough upgrade to justify spending the extra money.

I actually stumbled across this quote from the Sullivan article (shown below) over on Metsblog. I was then prompted to click the link and read the entire article on Fangraphs to find out what the rest of the article was all about.

Because right now a claim can’t be made that a team needs Stephen Drew. He’d help the Red Sox a little, but he’d make a very small impact on their overall chances, so there’s no need to pay much for his services. Drew would help the Mets by maybe a win or two, but that might just help them lock up third place in the NL East, trailing the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves in some order. That improvement isn’t valueless, but the Mets needn’t pay market price, since this isn’t supposed to be a championship season. And the difference between Drew and Tejada would presumably be smaller in 2015, when Harvey is expected to return.

I have already stated my thoughts on why the Mets should go after Drew (you can read them here), but I had a major issue with regard to the quote above. The main concern I have is how much weight has been given to WAR when analyzing which players should be signed.

It’s a known fact that many analysts are trying to avoid using yearly WAR when analyzing players due to the volatility in the defensive metric. Drew’s projected WAR for 2014 is 2.0 according to Steamer projections, which is where I assume Sullivan comes up with the idea that Drew would only help out the Mets with a win or two in 2014.

But if that’s truly the case, why go after any shortstops for that matter?

Looking at the breakdown of projected Steamer WAR for shortstops next year shows that only two shortstops have a projected WAR over 4.0—Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez. If looking at WAR alone, I would question why the Mets should go after any of these guys, and should surely keep Tejada instead. There would be no logical reason why the Mets should spend more money on any shortstops, even some of the top shortstops in the game, if they are only going to give about three to four additional wins.

For those that need a quick sabermetric lesson, WAR is a stat that determines how many more wins a player will give you over a replacement player, which is not characterized as an average player. A replacement player, according to Baseball Reference, “are players easy to obtain when a starter goes down. These are the players who receive non-roster invites at the start of the year or the players who are 6-year minor league free agents. Baseball talent among the population is generally distributed normally, but only the very right-end of that curve plays professional baseball.”

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I’m not a big fan of using WAR. I’m not saying it doesn’t have it’s place, but I prefer Weighted Runs Created (wRC+). This stat tries to quantify a player’s total offensive value measured in runs—defense is not taken into account (as stated earlier, defense can alter WAR when looked at yearly). We don’t need a stat that incorporates defense when comparing Drew and Tejada because we already know what we’re going to get from them.

Drew’s wRC+ is practically even across Oliver and Steamer projections at about 92. Tejada’s wRC+ is all over the place, on two opposite ends of the spectrum with regard to Oliver and Steamer projections—Steamer 87, Oliver 68.

The projections from Oliver take into account the past three seasons, so when you see Drew’s wRC+ as a steady number, it backs up what I said the other day when I said the Mets will at least know what they are going to get from Drew. Tejada is a complete wild card, and the discrepancy in his wRC+ projections paints a great picture of how much of a wild card he is.

The Mets can roll the dice and hope they get the Steamer version of Tejada in 2014, or they can pay for who many view as the better ball player in Drew.

We aren’t talking about tools. We aren’t talking about potential. We are talking about who the Mets should have out there right now that is going to help solidify that infield and help the Mets win more games.

Let’s not forget, some things aren’t measured by stats—like the improved confidence of your starting pitcher knowing that there is a solid defense behind them. I’m not so sure that Tejada’s teammates would be as confident in him as they would be in Drew.

Who knows, maybe playing behind Drew for a year or two will help Tejada mature into the Mets shortstop of the future. Maybe that’s exactly what Tejada needs.

Presented By Diehards

  • vigouge

    I would wager the win or two number that Sullivan uses is based on Drew vs Tejada with the projections as a starting point then a little manual guessing given that the projection systems don’t take into account injury.

    Ultimately I think it’s fair to say Tejada has a good chance to be at ~1 fWAR next year and Drew to be ~3. For me Drew would be worth the risk since his floor over the length of whatever deal he signs is fairly high while Tejada could very well be a below replacement player leaving the team in the same situation next year with more competition for shortstops.

  • Throw it another way. Even if Drew gave a 4 win difference (which would probably be ceiling) would that be enough to get out of 3rd place next season? Probably looking at either an expensive one year or reasonable 3 year max on him and next year there are a bunch of FA SS available. For me I want as many wins as possible but feel the better decision is to hold off unless he Drew caves in.

    If there were other options at SS available we no one would want Drew and that is a big reason he is still out there.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    I personally dont like the war stat at all

  • BCleveland3381

    I don’t like the argument that there are guys next year when we need help now. Besides that, Drew’s market is really small. We can get him cheap and on a short contract. Just because there are guys available doesn’t mean we have a better chance of signing any of them. Every potential free agent will be leaving a team that will likely be bidding on other free agents.

    The Yankees, Dodgers, Indians, Orioles, and others may be looking for a SS in free agency. How many of those teams can we win a bidding war against?

  • Is cheap good if he is somewhat injury prone? I am not an advocate for Tejada at all, I just dont want to get trapped in a crummy contract and would rather take a risk next year when new tv contract money isnt floating around and Harvey is back. I his demands are reasonable then fine go for it. The most important thing is to get this team above 80 wins next year.

  • RyanF55

    Not a fan of the WAR metric. I’d generally agree that baseball is such a game of numbers and over-analysis of players based on a particular stat. It’s ridiculous to think that narrowly if teams are in fact basing much of their decision process on it.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    AGREED! WAR is a terrible stat….it is routinely mentioned as being a FLAWED stat by its main proponents.

    WAR stated Josh Donaldson was better than Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis in 2013

    http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/josh-donaldson-has-higher-war-than-miguel-cabrera-chris-davis/204502

    CASE CLOSED!!!!

  • Wow Mitch, nice job. What a very in depth piece. But after reading though every word, your last sentence packs some punch. Like Valdespin, albeit for different reasons, Tejada did alienate some of his teammates sort of like Jefferies did although without the cockiness. He will need to gain their trust back, but that’s what spring training is for.

    Drew on the other hand would have immediate acceptance and to keep it he will have to perform up to expectations and the contract he would get.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    Im working on a pretty detaled post about it now hopefully send it in tonight or tomorrow

  • mitchpetanick

    I love when you guys go nuts about Donaldson! lol

  • mitchpetanick

    Thanks, Joe 🙂 And I totally agree with your comment about Drew having immediate acceptance as a veteran on this ball club.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    I dont see how he alienated them I could see how some would not trust him to produce but we are still talking about a 23yr old kid who had 2good seasons and just 1 season where he struggled after breaking his normal offseason routine[coming to camp early to shut Collins up]

    He had a solid season every year in which he did his own preperations for the season but struggled the season he finally came early to camp to appease Collins.

    Interesting.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    lol…I have to always bring that up because it is sooooooooooooooo GLARING…

    It magnifies the FLAW in WAR soooo much.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    Cant wait to read it….and defend you in the comment section lol

  • jason bay

    Yeah but there are also a TON of SS’s graduating to the Majors next year including Alan Hanson, Hak Ju Lee, Luis Sardinas, just like Bogaerts, Iglesis, Franklin, Gregorious, Machado, Owings, Semein, ect last year.

    Baez, Lindor,, Mondessi Jr, Correia and Russell on the way up. That’s 14 guys whose teams probably won’t be looking for long term help at SS plus other teams that have no need like Milwaukee, SF, ChiSox, Toronto, Baltimore,, Boston, Angles, Texas, Oakland, St. Louis (now)

    Boston and Detroit lost SS’s this year and they didn’t bid on any of them (yet)

    Personally I’m tired of this whole settling for mediocrity in order to get it sooner, rather than later. Mediocrity produces mediocre results and with more losing seasons than winning ones in the last 25 years that is what we have been…..mediocre.

    Lets wait and get the right guy. Probably happen at the deadline.

  • BronxMets

    Total BS…………….12 of the 40 man was brought in by SA its all still BS

  • Super T

    Part of this whole Stephen Drew argument that kills me is the same principle with Ike Davis – Seemingly everyone complained all last season long about these guys killing the Mets. I was in the internet game threads nearly every game last season, and if I had a $1 for every post ripping these two guys last season, I could retire from working right now for the rest of my life.

    Now, it seems like over half the posts I read this off season are about giving Ike Davis and Ruben Tejeda more chances. Mostly, because people say “We don’t have any better alternatives”. Well, we have a better alternative sitting right in front of us in Stephen Drew, but seemingly many of the same fans who complained to the ends of the earth about Ruben Tejeda last season, now for whatever reason don’t want Drew.

    It’s the same thing with Ike Davis who we have suffered through 2 seasons now with. Dude sucks. Mike Pelfrey anyone? It is time to cut the cord with this guy and give him and the team a fresh start. How many times do we keep banging our head against the wall before we FINALLY move on?

  • BehindTheBag

    What in the heck are you babbling about this time?

  • Run Support Group

    A combo of Drew and Tejada at SS could put up a 3.5 WAR.

  • Run Support Group

    2 good seasons? No. He was nice for the 1/2 of 2011 he was up and in the first half of 2012. That really comes out to one good season

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    I just sent it in as a fan shot, hopefully joe puts it up, I think its pretty reveling.

  • Bail4Nails

    That almost brought a tear to my eye. Thank you for saying this. Nobody will listen though. Moths to a flame.

  • I don’t understand what that has to do with anything? Do you root for the team or just part of the team? Which part?

  • Run Support Group
  • BronxMets

    come on are you just going to be argumentative? you don’t seriously understand what 12 out of 40 means?

  • BronxMets

    ok how long has SA been her? answer that. OK 12 out of 40 means the roster only has 30% brought in by SA…ok

  • Ok that is only three less than Omar Minaya’s 40 man roster on Opening Day in 2008. And by Opening Day in 2014, I’m pretty sure it will be either a tie or Sandy will have a lead.

    But still, what’s your point?

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    O think there is a major flaw in the war stat

  • BronxMets

    Really thats how you look at things. So you are saying only 15 out if the 40 in 2008 were omars.

  • BCleveland3381

    In fairness, Sandy was brought in here to cut payroll 50 million in 3 years. He’s basically been dumping payroll since he got here.

  • greg b

    When did S Drew become a star. Everyone writes articles on him. The guy is an average player at best.

  • Run Support Group

    Someone who puts up a .700+ ops At SS isn’t an at best average SS. He’s slightly above average.

  • BCleveland3381

    The biggest problem with WAR is that it’s calculated differently depending on what site you’re reading it on and nobody really understands how it’s calculated.

    If you want to know who has the highest batting average, you know you divide the number of hits into the number of at bats. It doesn’t matter what site you get the information from, it’s all the same. And everyone understands it. Google “Wins Above Replacement Wiki”.

  • Andrew Herbst

    I’m not a big fan of the WAR stat.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    Everyone is confused because you stated a fact, but we’re not seeing the point you’re trying to make with it. Help us out, my friend. 🙂

  • BCleveland3381

    The problem with WAR is unlike BA, OBP, OPS, etc. not many people understand how it’s calculated. Even more amazing, it’s calculated differently depending on what site you’re getting the information from. Baseballreference calculates WAR differently than Fangraphs. That just doesn’t work in my eyes.

    I don’t think WAR is useless. It can be used as a statistic like many others, as part of an argument for or against a player, or as a tool in evaluation. But to use it as your only argument is silly.

    It just reminds me of that moron Ken Davidoff, who omitted Piazza from his ballot because his WAR wasn’t high enough. Then he got on XM radio and got called out and admitted he didn’t understand how WAR was calculated or what it meant. People just see WAR and think it’s the most important stat there is.

  • Captain America

    The split on the 25 man could be almost even this year

  • I’m not trying to be argumentative, believe me. I was just wondering why you replied to me about the 12 of 40. I didn’t understand where you were coming from.

  • SpinalRemains

    We all must remember first, that when discussing metrics and stats, there is a huge difference between the two.

    Stats offer a greater depiction of a players worth because the #s are concrete and factual. A players average or OBP is what it is because that player performed to it. When we look @ metrics however, there are arbitrary numbers out into the equations, thus in my mind rendering them to be misleading at best, and outright absurd at their worst. Case in point would be the WAR as stated above. Why is it that the replacement player is below average with arbitrary stats thrown in? To me, this leaves that metric to have no credibility.

    Piazza having a small WAR seems ridiculous to me. The man for all intents carried the club through many a season and was the definition of a difference maker. (Yes I read the article this morning :-)).

    In short, the WAR stat tends to muddy the waters when its intention is to give a clear picture of a players worth.

  • Frank Francisco

    Lol love the shots fired at Metsblog. I was a faithful reader of Metsblog for a pretty long time but lately they have gotten so lazy with their content that I have crossed over to Metsmerized.

  • Martin

    You certainly could measure the pitchers confidence with a better defense by comparing his numbers with different guys behind him. I doubt it would make much difference, but it could be measured.

  • Martin

    Being liked the clubhouse doesn’t help the team win. Playing well does.

  • Matthew Rapillo

    Tejada is awful and everyone knows it but the Mets are only looking at Drew for a 1-2 year deal. I’m not that fond on giving up a third round draft pick for a short term player either. Trading for a shortstop or waiting until next offseason to sign one is a better bet.

  • KennyandtheMets

    It isn’t even worth discussing. They are both injury prone, so that’s a wash. Drew is light years better than Tejada. Tejada is a fine back up. Drew is a a very solid starter. Huge difference.

  • jason bay

    Teddy Hanson finished in AA last year, will probably start out there and if he does well could very well be in the Majors by the end of this year. Same thing with Sardinas even though he is blocked injuries could have him up in 2014 as well.

  • To me WARs only use is in comparison of players. Using it to actually say how many wins a team would gain for their services assumes too much.

  • A two year deal within option would be the best for both sides.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    Not sure you could effectively separate signal from noise in that analysis.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    I was banned recently. In fairness, it was long overdue.

    I noticed that no one was responding to my comments in the past two days, so I logged out, and could no longer see them as a guest. Every comment, wiped clean. Log back in, and they’re visible. But no one else can see them. I felt like an undead spirit. 🙂

  • Metropolitan

    Never mind Drew .We should have Peralta right now …CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP Wilponzis

  • Herb G

    I said this on fangraphs and I’ll say it here too:

    In theory, I’d agree that an incremental couple of wins are more valuable to the Red Sox as insurance. Even though they are projected as runaway winners in the AL East, you never know, and those extra wins could be the ones that put them over the top.

    In looking at how valuable Drew would be, however, we shouldn’t be looking at WAR. (wins above replacement player) Rather, we should be looking at WAM vs. WAT. (wins above Middlebrooks vs. wins above Tejada) In that measure, Drew would be more valuable to the Mets.

    Regarding the Mets, their story is a bit more complex than the Red Sox. Drew certainly might not giive the Mets the boost they would need to make the playoffs, although, as I said before, you never know. Wilder things than a team like the Mets becoming contenders have happened in past pennant races. The extra couple of games might just be a difference maker for the Mets too.

    But maybe more important to the Mets is credibility and fan enthusiasm. Signing another quality free agent would send another strong message to the fan base that the Mets are serious about not punting 2014 despite the loss of Harvey. That could translate into winning back many of the doubters and increasing attendance this year. It could set the stage for a turnaround in revenues and a return to profitability sooner rather than later. How valuable would that be to the Mets?

  • jason bay

    The argument for re-signing Castillo was that he was better than Anderson Hernandez and Argenis Reyes and there was no one else “available” to play 2B but that signing effectively prevented us from targeting a better second basemen in later years like Orlando Hudson, Kelly Johnson or Marco Scutaro.

  • Hotstreak

    Good point on Drew:

    Better point on OPS its measurable, constant in its calculation for different time periods Miguel Cabrera (.967 at 30 yrs old vs Ernie Banks approximately .900 at 30 years old). Really does it matter which contributes more OBP% or SLG%.

    P.S. If you wanted to know you can easily find out.

  • Hotstreak

    Kevin Mitchell, Jeff Kent and Chris Davis anybody.

  • Martin

    You could if it mattered, which it doesn’t. Pitchers don’t think “I have to strike these guys out because my fielders are incompetent oafs”. You couldn’t measure it because it isn’t there. But if it was, you could.

  • Martin

    Fascinating. I don’t like wheat beers.

  • Martin

    Obp is far more valuable than slg, which is the flaw in ops

  • Martin

    Which is only relevant if you are writing the team gossip column. The game is on the field.

  • Martin

    The biggest problem with war is that it values and incorporates defensive metrics that are largely meaningless.

  • DrDooby

    WAR is a useful tool in evaluating players – but one has to be aware of its flaws. Defense at times gets overly signified even though defensive stats are very imperfect and tend to fluctuate on a yearly basis often and it’s generally agreed that you need a 2-3 year sample to make them meaningful enough to forecast.

    Also, a system like WAR can’t adjust to individual situations. For example, Stephen Drew missed the 2nd half of 2011 and the first half of 2012 with the one same big injury and struggled in 2012 upon his return. That severly hurts his projections even if he was a very consistent player before & after this one big injury. Obviously, this is something that a system that tries to generalize things can’t incorporate.

    That said, the broader the evaluation, the more useful WAR is. Of course, the less proven / younger the team, the more difficult the projection again…

    Overall, it seems reasonable that the difference between Drew & Tejada figures to be worth 2 wins. And also part in this is the likelihood that Tejada is a much better BACKUP to Drew than scrap heap signing X is to Tejada. Depth may be the most underappreciated aspect in today’s game. The A’s and Rays have used that aspect very well and it may well be the one market inefficiency that not all teams have grasped yet. And it appears the Mets are on their way towards using it as well – which is good as the 2007, 2008 and 2010 teams basically were sabotaged due to a lack of depth, most of all on the pitching staff.

    If you have a 2 to 3 WAR starting SS and have a 1 WAR backup in place,that’s worth a lot more than having a 1.5 WAR starting SS backed up by a 0 WAR SS.

  • diehardmets

    Peralta got ridiculously overpaid.

  • diehardmets

    They do this, it’s called FIP (fielding independent pitching). Pitchers with strong defense usually have a lower ERA than FIP, and vice verca for those with weak defenses.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    You could measure the outputs, but I’m not sure you can measure “pitcher confidence.” Do you have thoughts on how this is possible?

  • mikeb

    Good comment on the depth aspect. Arother place I’ve really noticed a lack of depth, other than the bullpen as being glaring is when a pinch hitter is needed. There have been so many games that the Mets have been down 1 or 2 runs in the 9th, let’s say down 2, man gets on, and with 2 down, Quintanilla is due up, and they have no pinch hitter. In recent years, the bench just has had no pop. I was sorry to see Turner going. I thought he represented some of the best bench power they had. It’s a sad comment on their bench, but it’s been that poor. Andrew Brown has helped with some power, but he’s not been that strong overall. Mets over the years have had some lefty power, and recently, just haven’t really had anybody. This year, maybe den Dekker and Eric Young, but not too much power with those guys. You like to have a guy who can tie the game with one swing, and it just hasn’t been there.

    I am not in the get Drew camp. I don’t watch Red Sox games, but his post season play was enough for me to pass. It’s just not enough of an upgrade. That was a pitiful performance. He was clearly overmatched, big time.

  • mikeb

    Good comment on WAM and WAT, and I agree, but I don’t see Drew as a quality free agent. I see him as an overpriced mediocre player. Better than Tejada? Yes, so far, but he is declining, and the injuries in recent years should be considered as to his durability. I’m also not a Tejada fan, and if it’s like last year, it’ll be awful. But I’m happy to go with Tovar. He can certainly pick it as well as Drew. We’ll get zero hr’s, and a possible .220 average, but $12 million for Drew vs. the minimum for Tejada is no contest. I wouldn’t do it, but spend the money on relievers.

  • mikeb

    Agreed. And Marlon Byrd at $8 million per for 2 years looking like a bargain. I bet he puts up better numbers than C Young and Granderson.

  • Hotstreak

    Connor coined the term “Empty OBP”. Costello or even IKE when he came back from Vegas and Duda too have “empty OBP’s. Murphy on the otherhand has a low OBP but very productive with his RBI’s and two out key RBI’s.

    The worst measurement IMO is weighted BA as it is not based on the players performance but league average weights which the player can be way above or way under.

    A two out double in bottom of ninth with no outs is less than 2.0 weight given in SLG%: The Win Probability Index has to be twice that of a single. Why is there a “No Doubles Defense”? Because the WPI is much greater.

    If weights are used it should be base on players performance. Are most doubles hit win trailing by four or more runs or in late innings in close games?

  • MattSzat

    Good point. But I think Marlon is gonna come back to the pack a little this year. Last year he rode a lot of momentum, I’ll be curious to see how he plays. Playing at a little league field might help his power numbers and make him some pretty Interesting trade bait.

    No doubt he will out perform Chris Young. But I can see Grandy and him performing on an even plane

  • Metropolitan

    Yeah by the Cardinals ,a franchise known for making good descions and ….winning

  • vigouge

    I’ve gone back and forth on this type of issue. Going only by impassive logic the best move would have to to punt the entirety of the offseason so as to concentrate resources in future offseasons but we don’t or can’t work that way. Long term brand matters.

    Specific to Drew my thinking is this, he’s going to get a below market deal that covers the next 2-3 years when we presumably will need the marginal wins. The worse case scenario for the team is that shortstop is as unproductive as last year, with only Tejada on the roster that makes the worst case scenario far more probable. Drew would likely provide average production at the worst with above average to good production being a strong possibility.

    Finally we have the longshot possibility. There’s is a lot of potential on the roster for better than expected results. All it would take is 1-2 breakout performances to get the team to that low-mid 80’s win level. What I would hate to see happen is having the team win 83-84 games with a replacement level shortstop especially when there’s a good valued one on the market.

    Drew is pretty low risk given his skill set and the 10m per year deal he’s probably going to get. Even if he’s not enough to push the team over the top this coming year he shouldn’t be too different a player in 2015 when the team needs marginal wins. I don’t know that there’s going to be a better deal next year, I do know there’s a good one this year and I’m willing to bet that if the team goes into next offseason looking for a SS, then it will most likely pay more in the 2015-2016 seasons for that player than Drew and get similar performance. I’m willing to take the risk of overpaying a little at the position this year so as to underpay for the next two especially since there is value to fielding a competitive team even if it’s not likely to reach the playoffs.

  • vigouge

    How exactly are defensive metrics meaningless?

  • vigouge

    Even more amazing, it’s calculated differently depending on what site
    you’re getting the information from. Baseballreference calculates WAR
    differently than Fangraphs. That just doesn’t work in my eyes.

    Why? There are multiple ways to calculate performance.

    People just see WAR and think it’s the most important stat there is.

    Well if your goal is to get a general sense of player performance, there is no better stat. It incorporates every measurable aspect of the game and gives you a nice and tidy, easy to comprehend metric. There are better stats for understanding specifics but complaining that WAR isn’t something it’s not meant to be would be like complaining that where the NASDAQ ended a day doesn’t tell me how Microsoft did.

  • vigouge

    Case in point would be the WAR as stated above. Why is it that the
    replacement player is below average with arbitrary stats thrown in?

    There’s nothing arbitrary about those numbers or about what a replacement level player is.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/

    To me, this leaves that metric to have no credibility.

    You don’t know what replacement level is or what it means because you haven’t taken the time to find out yet it has no credibility?

    Bet those new fangled things called computers really vex you, all their talking in 1’s and 0’s and such.

    Piazza having a small WAR seems ridiculous to me. The man for all
    intents carried the club through many a season and was the definition of
    a difference maker. (Yes I read the article this morning :-)).

    Piazza has the 6th highest fWAR among catchers. It’s not low compared to his peers, it’s not even low compared to all baseball players which is quite the achievement given how short a catchers career is.

  • vigouge

    It isn’t, you could use fip or siera but you just couldn’t isolate it enough to be of use. There’s no possible way given the incredibly tiny sample size one would be working with.

  • BigAl831

    Oh My God…I’ve been stuck on Metsblog and it’s just been so horrible. So, so horrible. The comment section on this site is actually respectable!!!!!!!!!!!! I’m so happy!!!!!!!!!!! Metsmerized has just replaced Metsblog on my bookmarks. Yay!!!!!!

  • vigouge

    I agree to a point though I think it’s more important to realize what WAR is and what it isn’t. WAR is a measurement of past performance. It measures events that have happened, but it doesn’t attempt to predict that they will happen again.

    One of the biggest things about UZR is how it fluctuates and that it generally takes 3 years of data to truly show a players true talent level. The thing is, when a player puts up a +10 uzr, he actually made enough plays that he saved 10 more runs than a replacement level player would have. The same is true for WAR. A player can easily be a 5 fWAR player one year and a 2 fWAR player the next and both will be true but neither number will tell you what he’ll be in the upcoming year.

  • XtreemIcon

    Welcome.

  • I think calculating defense is the biggest joke advanced stats play on us. One how can you actually calculate defense?? they eye test isn’t legit, bot also illegitimate is every defense stat the industry has ever come up with…and then disagreed with. Also, I think offense should dominate WAR more than it currently does if it really wants to determine player value. Yes defense is important, but it’ll never be as important as hitting.

  • Destry

    Tejada getting some starts vs LHP to keep Drew rested and healthy could possible put up a 4.0+ WAR, which Drew has achieved all by himself in the past. I could see Drew putting up 3.5 and Tejada a 1.0. Drew put up 3.4 in 124 games last year, and 4.7 in 2010, the year before his ankle injury.

  • DrDooby

    Defense is a key aspect of the game – something that was underrated, especially with the offensive regression in the post massive “PED-era”.

    Unfortunately, the defensive metrics incorporated in WAR remain somewhat flawed both because of the way they are accumulated and the needs for larger samples. Though the eye-test does show that Stephen Drew is a significantly better defender than Ruben Tejada. So, the difference is a) on defense and b) in about .100 points of SLG PCT and maybe 15 to 20 extra base hits per season between the two. Tejada probably matches Drew in terms of BA / OBP, assuming he can bounce back a bit.

    My main worry about Tejada isn´t so much that he performed poorly offensively in 2013. That should be fixeable back to his previous levels. The much bigger worry was his lack of defense. It´s a lot tougher regaining range than working on your swing. One being a physical skill the other a mechanical fix.

    Just like a pitcher will usually struggle to ever regain lost velocity but can very well improve his secondary pitches and command and thus make up for it. Tejada always was a bit fringy but steady at SS defensively. But if you start with “45 to 50” range and it drops to “40 ” on the scouting scale, you can´t remain a starter unless your offense is so good that it easily makes up for defensive shortcomings. But that´s never going to be the case with Tejada due to a lack of power.

  • Martin

    because defense is too complicated to measure with the current metrics. if i guy doesnt make a play, it may be because he was shifted, or he may be holding a runner or whatever, and of course errors are nonsense because some guys make errors by having a play on a ball another guy couldnt even reach, and there are lots of complexities to defensive positioning and all the choices involved, such that the metrics arent doing a good job quantifying it. just put whatever guy at any position he can barely handle and worry about offense.

  • DrDooby

    True. But basically all stats just measure “past performance” and the question remains what conclusions to draw from them for the future where it´s a mix of eye test and projection.

    And the problem with all projection systems is that they look for similar players in the past statistically (not individually, of course) and try to project a median performance based on that. Useful and interesting but obviously vague. Which is especially true for a team that may realistically feature up to 12 players on its opening day roster (Wheeler, Mejia, Black, Germen, Edgin, Rice, Torres, Familia, d´Arnaud, Lagares, Satin, maybe Flores if he makes it) that haven´t even played a full season at the major league level yet. I don´t think there are many teams in the majors right now with as little track record. The less track record, the more difficult any serious projection is. The Washington Nationals have a very set roster where projections are rather easy – with all caveats of injury, over-/and underperformance.

    It makes 2014 a very interesting season to watch. And the best part about watching these kids is that an entire group of kids is waiting in the wings as a “backup” & complementary plan in case things go wrong, especially on the pitching side with Montero, Syndergaard, DeGrom, Mazzoni, Goeddel, Walters, Leathersich, Puello and others being within a few months of being ready to debut in all likelihood. That´s the HUGE difference between now & past crops of young players.

  • DrDooby

    Turner was a rather tough out in a PH role in the past. But he had no pop at all and struggled vs. LHP too – which you´d expect a RHH bat to hit.

    The bench certainly does need help. Either by Duda & Tejada turning into bench players (say, with Flores or Ike taking over fulltime at 1b and Drew at SS) or by extra bench pieces being acquired.

    The bullpen already has tremendous young depth. A gritty veteran would sure help this group but this is the year these young arms will have to be thrown into the major league fire to determine who is part of the longer term puzzle and who isn´t. Black, Familia, Germen, Edgin and others have nothing left to do in the minors.

  • Martin

    You wouldn’t want to bother, but if you did you could measure fieldable balls hit vs pitcher with a competent defense vs same pitcher with oafs behind him. Obviously this doesn’t measure his mental state but the rate at which he is giving up fielding chances. All of this is pointless though because it is a non factor. Defense in general is maybe the only thing that scouts are useful for. Hey certainly have no use analyzing hitting or pitching.

  • BronxMets

    Put of the 40 man roster only 12 players are Sandys players. In almost 4 years he has had basically no impact on this team.

  • AJF

    lol ! It was only a matter of time before you did I think pretty much whoever is posting here was banned at one point. I was banned twice. Metsblog is becoming the North Korea of blogs

  • BronxMets

    and it really doesn’t tell you how good a player you are especially when you are being compared to ruben tejada.

  • BronxMets

    I don’t know if he will put up better numbers or not Im just still confused why we weren’t in on Byrd. Why did he flee for Philly says more about our current state of affairs.

  • JerseyCityMetsFan

    Hope they offer him 2/22

  • vigouge

    Firstly it’s an old wives tale that players with better than average range will make more errors. Secondly uzr adjust for positioning by comparing not only the plays made in a particular zone by a player against league average, but also against himself. The zone basically shifts or re-zero’s itself.

    Take this example of player A

    …-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3…

    0 is straight up, and he has a range of 2 zones. Now lets say player A is positioned in the -1 zone instead of 0 against hitters who pull the ball 60% of the time and vice versa. Against pull hitters he’ll field all balls from -3 to 1. At the beginning of that type of positioning he’ll see a bonus by fielding balls in zone -3 but that effect fades as he fields more balls there and less in zone 2. The stat reaches a point where it expects those plays while also still expecting plays made in zone 2. Ultimately there is a benefit but only slightly and even in the course of a whole season the effect will be a small amount of runs saved.

    You’re right defense is complicated, but so are the metrics. They’re are ones that measure how well a MI turns a double play, how a corner infielder fields a bunt, how well a outfielder keeps players from taking extra bases either using their arm or the fear of their arm. Even the less thanperfect ones do actually succeed in what they set out to do which is measure what actually happened. That goes hand in hand with what WAR is, a metric that measure the total contribution of a player.

  • Von

    Would everyone still be so non-committal if they knew right now that Tejada will finish the year with a stat line of .250/.315/.300 with 1 HR/37 RS/29 RBI?

  • Mitch makes a good case for the Mets to apparently continue to do what they are apparently doing that is to wait until they can sign Drew at a more affordable price. I am all for that. Two years ago Tejada took one step forward. Unfortunately for him, the Mets and us last year he rook two steps back. Now we are left asking what he has probably, I hope, has already asked himself, “Do I now have it in me to take two steps forward in 2014?” If he does he will be the same SS he was two years ago. In my opinion, that will be difficult for him to do especially with all the focus on him. In fact, two years ago there was a lot of focus on him as well because that was when Reyes left the team. So, if he did it two years ago when he was younger he can do it again because while he is still young he is now, again I hope, more mature than he was when he reported to ST in 2013. Either way, a cheaper Drew or a more mature Tejada, the Mets should have their upgrade at SS for 2014 over 2013.

  • vigouge

    But basically all stats just measure “past performance” and the question
    remains what conclusions to draw from them for the future where it´s a
    mix of eye test and projection.

    I might rephrase my thought as ‘a measurement of past performance but not a prediction of future performance,’ and that’s because of the yearly variances as the sample size normalizes.

    And the problem with all projection systems is that they look for
    similar players in the past statistically (not individually, of course)
    and try to project a median performance based on that.

    I have to say, I hate projection systems and find them nearly worthless. The only time they interest me is when they’re all combined and averaged and thats only if they include a line derived from fans.

    It makes 2014 a very interesting season to watch. And the best part
    about watching these kids is that an entire group of kids is waiting in
    the wings as a “backup” & complementary plan in case things go wrong…

    This is my feeling as well which is why I’m oddly excited about the coming season. For me my expectations on what would have to happen for the Mets to be above average don’t seem too ludicrous. Other than Harvey I don’t see a area where the team will be worse than last year and quite a few positions that can’t be anything but better.

  • BCleveland3381

    From the outside in it looks like he got overpaid. And it made no sense for the Mets to pay that money to Peralta.

    But for the Cardinals, Peralta came without draft pick compensation and didn’t cost them young pitching like a trade would have. So it was only money. Money wasn’t really an issue, because they have the best staff in baseball and none of them are making any money. They could afford to pay over market value to get Peralta and fill their biggest need. The Mets can’t…..and shouldnt.

    Peralta also probably won’t be a SS for the rest of that contract, he’ll likely end up at 3B by year 3, the Cards can slide him over there easily enough, the Mets have Wright there.

    The Cards are a team that made the WS and had one glaring weakness, SS. They did the right thing by signing him. It just didn’t make sense for the Mets, even if they had the money. I’d like them to get Drew only because they could probably get him for a good value.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    Made the switch myself recently I think there will be a lot more from there comming

  • oleosmirf

    The main issue is that although Drew is the better player, he is not good enough to ultimately make a difference in 2014. Not without Matt Harvey in the mix.

    With or without Drew, the Mets and Phillies are still going to battle for 3rd place in the NL East with no real hope of making the playoffs.

    The Mets are probably better off giving Tejada one last chance to see if he can be the SS going forward and if not, the 2015 FA list has much more appealing options than Drew…

  • But you are also using it wrong it is a cumulative stat based by position. Cabrera has sand bags tied around his legs so he gets a penalty for the defensive component (which I don’t like). Going by offensive WAR alone Cabrera is way above Donaldson.

  • oleosmirf

    Well apparently they believe Donaldson’s superior base running and defense makes up for the fact that Cabrera is the far superior hitter.

    Personally, I don’t see how that’s accurate and I believe fangraphs overstates base running and defense, but that’s why Donaldson is ranked higher.

  • oleosmirf

    It simply boils down to the fact that fangraphs believes defense and base-running matter a great deal, but logically speaking, it’s hard to believe that Donaldson was more valuable than Cabrera.

  • mitchpetanick

    So chemistry now has nothing to do with a player’s success or teams’ success? I can tell you first hand that a player’s surroundings do affect their play – coaches, teammates, field, etc. – they all have an impact. If a player is not comfortable they won’t perform at their highest.

  • oleosmirf

    The problem is there are so many factors that go into defense, whereas offensive is very simple. Hitting is so easy to quantify, whereas defense has a million different factors that come into play.

    Again, how do defensive metrics take into account the following scenarios?

    1) Ball is hit to right side and the pitcher is late to cover 1B, so the runner is safe.
    2) Ball is hit to SS and the 1B fails to scoop a ball out of the dirt on a low (but still catchable) throw
    3) Ball is hit to left-center and the LF fails to yield to the CF and they bump into each other.
    4) the RF misses the cutoff man allowing the hitter to move up to 2nd
    5) the LF throws home where he had no chance of throwing the runner out instead of 2B, allowing the runner on 1st to take an extra base?

  • Andrew Herbst

    I don’t think there is as much importance to WAR.

  • Martin

    The players can hate each other, Or adore each other, it doesn’t matter. You should draft arod or bonds even though they are terrible people, because they put up numbers. Drafting people and claiming they are good personalities is pointless. They can be pricks that hate everyone and everyone hates. The job is to hit the baseball.

  • mitchpetanick

    I agree, and I’m not saying that because there is complete harmony a team will be successful. There can be a team of guys that adore each other and still finish in last place.

  • Martin

    So it would be simpler just to stack the team with high woba guys and not worry about who is accepted or who needs to know his role or whatever.

    Your point may be slightly true in basketball where the parts are far more complementary. But baseball is far more individual. Go to the plate by yourself and hit the ball. No team chemistry needed. Hit the ball.

  • Martin

    If you say so, but I am not sold. I don’t trust that the metrics can measure something so complicated.

  • exactly and that is the problem many of the anti WAR people have. They want to use it without any interpretation to demonstrate why it’s wrong. I personally am not big into it just because I feel that ESPN and others use it in a way that is incorrect and make it hard for people that are unsure of it to understand what they are even looking at. So if you are having a discussion and throw the stat out there it completely creates a whole sub-discussion on it’s merits.

    I really don’t like any defensive stats so I shy away from regular WAR, but I do like oWAR and feel there is some value to it.

  • It’s really more dependent on the player and that is why OPS is used like WAR to create a one size fits all value system. For a player like Cabrera OBP is less valuable. His value comes from his ability to drive in runs. EYjr value is in OBP. He does not have a slugging ability so it’s more important for him to get on base.

    This is why with Ike, people are saying look he is getting on base more so he is fixed which to me is a flawed interpretation. His swing is still mangled and his true value is driving in runs. You don’t want your cleanup hitter being passive and taking walks he needs to drive Wright and Murph home.

  • Erin_II

    Believe me, he didn`t understand where he was coming from either.

  • Martin

    Empty obp is rare as almost all high obp guys have power. Anyways, woba is more valuable, for reasons you are discussing.

  • Erin_II

    I saw your post that said something like, don`t tell the emperor he has no clothes on, I loled, and it was taken down. Evidently, that was the straw that broke the camel`s back. For a guy who claims not to care about the comment section, he sure does worry about what we post about him in there. I have been trying to earn a ban over there, to no avail. Only managed a few different deleted comments.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    I’m sure in the Livefyre era, bannings will be much swifter. They’re actively trying to censor criticism, because it damages the “Cerrone as digital media genius” fantasy he’s trying to sell.

    When an entire comments section is raking you over the coals on a daily basis, it means you’re bad at something and need to get better. But talent and effort have never been his strong suits, have they?

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    LOL@ “FIRST PITCH MITCH”

    ~CLASSIC

  • Suffering Mets Fan

    Same here! I made the switch a few months ago and not turning back!

  • Herb G

    There seems to ba a lot of disagreement on Drew’s value. I respect your position, but I see Drew differently. Firstly, I don’t see him as decling when his OBP and SLG last year was higher than his career averages. I think he can hit .250-.260 with a decent OBP and enough pop to hit 12-14 dingers. He’ll field about as well as Tovar, and his offensive production would be much better. Perhaps most importantly, he could lead off, something we don’t have right now unless EYJ plays regularly. To me, he would be worth about $10 million a year for 2 years.

  • Joey D.

    Hi DrD and Vigouge,

    I agree, we could make some noise with a few more well thought out additions. We might not, but we have the potential and should not shun away from taking advantage of a possible opportunity.

    Been thinking (no wisecracks about that being something new! LOL) about WAR. A second baseman with quick hands can get a force at second on those close, split second plays more often than his contemporaries yet also needs a great shortstop as a partner to get the bag quicker due to his own range and fielding smarts to complete the play. He could have that on the team he played for but not so for the team he is going to. Baseball people would understand that.

    So one could athletically be performing the same defensively in the field from one year to the next but not have the same result due to the change of his contemporaries on his new team that affect how he completes the play. Less force outs and more infield hits, less getting the lead runner, less double plays, etc. not due to his efforts but due to the lesser talent of those surrounding him.

    So WAR, even in terms of a defensive stat is nice in the sense that it can serve to point out credit but as a scientific measuring stick for projecting or even calculating the affect one had on wins compared to the average player, it’s no better than the guestimate one makes on his own hunch. Off the cuff, one would think a healthy Jose Reyes in the lineup this year over a healthy Tejada could mean a half dozen more games in the win column – or vice versa – but it’s something that cannot be actually measured – just appreciated in a general sense.

    Perhaps all it comes down to is that we’re saying the same thing but in two different types of languages. As said, my only problem is when it is insisted that advanced stats provides revelations that otherwise would not be seen, understood or appreciated in their importance.

  • Joey D.

    HI BronxMets,
    It wasn’t a matter of Marlon fleeing for Philly as it was us not really looking to bring him back to Flushing.

    And I can appreciate the dilemma the Mets were in. How much did the PEDS play in his past performance and comeback this past season? I’m suspicious not because of his batting average (just five points higher than his career total) but because of his sudden found power. In his 12 year career only once prior to 2013 did he hit 20 home runs. The total he had this year was actually double the amount he had in any of those ten other seasons. Even his road production was more than his total single season amount for ten of his 12 seasons) – and yet we saw him blast some moonshots into the middle deck at Citi Field as well. That newfound power at the age of 35 had to come from somewhere.

    If I was in Riccardi’s shoes, I would not have recommended to Sandy going after Byrd either, despite the temptation to do so. Would say there was something suspicious behind that sudden found power and that we really got lucky not only having that bat for most of the season but also then being able to get a Vic Black in return for one who we signed to a minor league deal with only an invitation to spring training with an outside chance of making it as the fifth outfielder.

    We might have been right not push lady luck too far. We won’t know for another year or so.

  • TimFrith24

    The Mets can’t afford to sign Stephen Drew. The Dodgers will sign Drew to replace Hanley Ramirez at shortstop.

  • kw_all

    wow Martin i agree with you on 2 consecutive posts. Thats a first 🙂

  • tacknaf

    wow, great to see you here Rooster. I’ve been mostly lurking here so far, trying to get a feel for the comments section. I haven’t been to MetsBlog in almost three weeks. I was wondering how bad it’s gotten over there.

  • kw_all

    i realize there may be some math to conclude that OPB is more valuable than SLG percentage, however from my perspective it depends on where one is hitting in the batting order. #1 and 2 need OBP, #4, 5 6 requires SLG percent with RISP, #3 needs both.
    duda and ike are paid to drive in runs, meaning they need to hit with RISP and preferably for multiple bases .. what i mean is this, remember when we had delgado .. reyes gets on in the first, moves to second via SB, or whatever means, delgado doubles him home and there we have a lead, and a runner in scoring position again with 2 outs
    with ike and duda, you get the walk but no run scores and you are dependent on the next guy to drive him in. but given the weak lineup (like satin taking yet another walk) MOST times no runs score.
    i like hitters who can drive the ball for extra bases with RISP, thats how runs are scored.

  • somedude718

    Same here. Their comment system is atrocious.

  • Tommy Med

    At this point Sandy and the Mets have the leverage. Idk what Sandy is demanding but if it’s a One year Deal then it can work out. Drew has been injured the last couple seasons but when he’s healthy he’s a pretty good SS honestly. I don’t expect 21 Homers like his best year in Arizona but the talk of Tejada maybe being better than him in the long run needs to stop. Drew is better and a one year deal should give him an opportunity to show that when he is healthy, he can be a Very solid SS. And he’s not 35, he’s 30 so he can easily return back to form. I’m aboard for Drew to come to Queens.

  • mitchpetanick

    It was my nickname going back to little league because I would always swing at the first pitch lol

  • LastSaneMetsFan

    Yeah Metsblog dropping Disqus and going to a more controlled, less interactive discussion system is ridiculous. If it ain’t broke don’t f’k with it. I’m sure they’ll regret their decision soon enough.
    That being said after finding MMO, the content being put out over here is definitely of a higher and broader quality. 2 thumbs up.

  • BCleveland3381

    Hanley is still on the team and they just resigned Uribe to play 3B. Why would the Dodgers sign Drew?

  • Daniel

    Did you even read your own article? smh

  • Lotus1209

    lol there are some comments that you should just skim over BC… this is one of them.

  • Lotus1209

    Didn’t we both get banned on separate accounts before? I remember saying something about the grammar issues and Andrew Vazzano told me it was because my comment was flagged… but when I saw the comment it wasnt flagged at all. I wonder how many comments he personally deletes.

    Look, I respect what Cerrone has done for the blogosphere… but when it comes to posts and what not… he needs to accept responsibility. It doesnt take a genius to re-read his own posts and search out mistakes and fix’em. Not cry like a b**tch about it. I really wish Toby Hyde was in charge of the whole thing. Toby really is a revelation compared to what they trot out there (besides Maggie and Andrew Wharton AKA DWright_5godsend)

  • joeyd1966

    Wait to you see his trade proposals. Tejada, Fulmer, Nimmo and Edgin for Giancarlo Stanton. Lol..

  • Just_Da_damaja

    that credibility was lost the minute they deemed Peralta “too expensive” at 15 mil and then gave Young and Colon 17 mil for the 2014 season.

    the fact that they are comfortable with giving a rookie catcher the reins with no backup vet to help him tells u everything u need to know about this front office’s baseball acumen.

    Most rookie catchers are groomed.

    Recker is looking to play as well, not be buried on a bench for a losing team at age 30.

    This team is a spaghetti mess with 5 different captains pulling the team in all different directions.

    I’m sure Sandy would rather not part with a penny than give Chris Young 7.5 mil and not even be a full-time starter all year

    And Fred is scared of what the press might say if they dont spend.money.

    And Jeff has his own ideas on how to run the club

    This is why u hear stories of Tejada being lazy from Sandy in November, than in December, the other heads of the snake say Ruben looks just fine at SS

  • jason bay

    I don’t recall Alderson saying that Peralta was too expensive and even people who wanted the Mets to sign Peralta (BBLB for one) didn’t want him for that many years at that cost anyway.

    What everyone seems to forget here is that free agents have a choice in where they decide to play and perhaps he considered St. Louis to be preferable to the Mets.

    As for a veteran backstop maybe Piercynski felt the same way about Boston. Here are the choices for catchers who signed (or will sign) one and two year deals. AJ, Suzuki, Soto, Arencibia, Nieves, Navarro and J Molina, Torrealba, Hernandez, Blanco, Quintero, Olivo, McHenry and we’ve been through Buck and Shoppach. Which one you want blocking Centeno?

    .

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    Yes I read it slappy….

    WAR is an IDIOT STAT…..(Period)

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    Ive heard you explain it before but I just took a glance up and saw it and I busted out laughing.

    I just picture you up there swinging like Jeromy Burnitz from the heels lol

  • vigouge

    How many times do you think those things happen a season? Out of tens of thousands defensive events that happen those types of errors happen a couple hundred times and when distributed among players, a couple dozen times. That’s basically statistical noise, a couple run swing in either direction.

  • vigouge

    Even then it’s not going to be as informative as one would want given the variances in pitcher performance. It would take multiple years to build a sample size large enough and by that time we could very well be comparing a pitchers 26-28 year old years versus his 29-32 year old years.

  • vigouge

    You’re absolutely correct Joey, that’s why it important to use all one’s tools when evaluating players. Scouting and stats need to work in unison to capture the, I don’t know a better word, ‘texture’. In my opinion stats give you the long view where scouting gives you the detail.

  • vigouge

    They are quite possibly the best part of the site. It’s absolutely satirical perfection.

  • R04

    Tim,
    Perhaps you should try to learn about this great game called baseball before posting. Just a thought.

  • Daniel

    One year of WAR is not the end be all. Donaldson being .1 better than Cabrera doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. But if he continues being a very good defender and hitter while Cabrera remains being a statue on defense, he will provide more value. Why do you think the A’s did so well this year? Donaldson was a huge reason for it.

  • Pretty much agreed. Only think I’d add is that his defense regressed enough that he started failing even the eye test consistently.

  • SpinalRemains

    So rather than explaining the merits of WAR, or trying to explain why The Mets should use it when looking at Tejada or Drew, you pout and use straw man that I must hate computers or not understand them, because I lend no credence to the WAR theory.

    That’s what it is, ya know. Its a theory. If WAR was such an instrumental tool for success, then why isn’t there one universal method for attaining its value? I’d love to know.

    As for Piazza having a low WAR, I didn’t know what his WAR was actually. Someone else had stated that he is not HOF worthy due to his low WAR. I was using that as an example of why I do not pay attention to that metric.

    Basing my player value on watching them and using traditional stats, does not a computer or mathphobe that make me.

    Have a little class and try to debate rather than attack like a girly man.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Vigouge,

    I like the word you chose – “texture”. And if I understand correctly what you were getting at, it is in fact that stats can provide a general picture but that scouting and of course that includes the insightful experience of those who actually played and coached between the lines, are the only ones who can provide the more finer and precise detail that is so much required in making a decision.

    Too bad Sandy, it’s not so simple as finding a drop in PPPA and run production and concluding there is a meaningful correlation between the two.

  • Herb G

    I’ll respond to your post despite the fact that you seem like either a troll seeking to merely annoy, or one of the Met loathing, Wilpon hating “fans” who’s sole purpose in life seems to be depricating everything the front office does.

    Your credibility was lost the minute you imply that 4 years/$53 million for Peralta is a prudent signing. You know at the start of the off season, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors said that Peralta “may still manage a 3 year, $30 million contract.” Most analysts agree that it was an overpayment, so the Mets were absolutely correct in deeming it “too expensive”. The Colon signing at 2/$20 ($9 mil in 2014) ia a great deal. Colon alone is more valuable to the Mets than Peralta would have been. I believe signing Young for $7.25 MM is too much, but after what Sandy got by signing Byrd last year when most of us thought he was making a big mistake, I’ll postpone final judgement on Young until we are well into the season.

    Rookie catchers are groomed. Like Buster Posey, who played almost every game from the time he was brought up on May 29, 2010 through the end of the season. Or Matt Weiters, who came up on the same date a year earlier and played almost every game after. Don’t you think d’Arnaud will get sufficient mentoring from former catcher and current bench coach Bob Gerin, and bullpen catchers, Ricky Bones and Dave Racanello? And I guess you don’t regard Taylor Teagarden as a backup vet.

    You make absolutely no sense. Especially when you talk of 5 captains, Sandy not parting with a penny, Fred this and Jeff that, multi headed snakes. Your blind bias comes through loud and clear.

    The talk of Tejada coming in out of condition last year and not working hard had exactly the effect that Sandy wanted it to have. Ruben got the message, worked to get into condition and agreed to attend fitness camp over the winter, Hence the revised assessment of Tejada. But rather than accept the fact of a change in the player, you would rather talk about snakes.

  • vigouge

    So rather than explaining the merits of WAR, or trying to explain why
    The Mets should use it when looking at Tejada or Drew, you pout and use
    straw man that I must hate computers or not understand them, because I
    lend no credence to the WAR theory.

    Actually that’s not a strawman, closer to hyperbole.

    That’s what it is, ya know. Its a theory. If WAR was such an instrumental tool for success

    Found your strawman for you.

    then why isn’t there one universal method for attaining its value? I’d love to know.

    You mean why isn’t there purely one method for measuring the performance of something that includes a fairly massive amount tiny events all of which can be measured in different ways? I’m amazed that the basis of advanced metrics is as uniform as it is. The fact that everyone uses the same run values for each individual event is astounding.

    You can go here to read an old discussion on a similar question to yours.

    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/john_dewan_and_research_assistant_speak/#41

    The basic answer is there is no universal truth.

    As for Piazza having a low WAR, I didn’t know what his WAR was actually.
    Someone else had stated that he is not HOF worthy due to his low WAR.
    I was using that as an example of why I do not pay attention to that
    metric.

    So you have no idea what WAR is especially the R part of it, you have no idea what Mike Piazza’s WAR is only that someone said somewhere that it was low, and you feel you have enough information to make a judgement about it? C’mon, that’s really weak. It sounds like the only thing you know about WAR is that you don’t like it. That’s a perfectly acceptable position but you might not want to jump into discussions that include it because you don’t really have an argument against it.

    Basing my player value on watching them and using traditional stats, does not a computer or mathphobe that make me.

    Have a little class and try to debate rather than attack like a girly man.

    You’re absolutely correct and I apologize.

  • vigouge

    That’s what I’m hoping happens. It settles the position for the team for the near future and I don’t think Drew wants to go through this again. Heck if we guarantee the 3rd year we may even be able to get a lower AAV and have the 3rd year ultiamtely cost only ~1-2m extra vs the 2 years plus option deal.

  • DrDooby

    Tejada will obviously better or rather “less terrible” in 2014 than he was in 2013. He was on pace to be one of the five least valuable players in the majors before his demotion. And Quintanilla wasn´t much better after a solid 1st month when his flaws were exposed the more he played.

    Still, Stephen Drew is a far better player. Offensively (if you include hitting for any sort of extra base power) and most of all defensively where Tejada was scary poor. Both in a small statistical sample size but also according to an easy eye-test.
    The offense should rebound, the defense I´m not so sure.

    And a combo of Drew backed up by Tejada at SS should be a lot more valuable than a combo of Tejada and a scrap heap backup, be it Maicer Izturis, Ronnie Cedeno, Omar Quintanilla or some other scrap heap middle infielder readily available you´d much rather park at AAA though.

    Again, it depends on the price. Drew certainly isn´t someone you´d want to aggressively overspend on or sign to a long term deal of 3 to 4 years at 12+ million per year. But on a shorter term deal of 2-years at a reasonable salary in this market, say 2-years, 22 million $ tha´s a very nice addition.

    Of course, as ridiculous as it is, the Mets may not have the money to sign Drew to even such a contract based on their likely 90 to 95 million payroll cap and pretty much being at 86 million right now before even adding a veteran reliever and a scrap heap veteran SP at the very least. So even if Ike Davis does get traded, I´m not sure the Mets will be able to afford Drew.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    It should be the end all be all for that stat…Any stat that tells you Donaldson is better than Cabrera should be banished.

    And the A’s werent good because of Donaldson it was a total team effort but more important……PITCHING!!!

    Donaldson was on a LONG BRUTAL SLUMP and he was almost benched.

    Also if Miggy and Donaldson switched teams last year the A’s wouldve been WAY BETTER and the Tigers w Josh wouldnt even make the playoffs.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    I also dont recall Alderson ever making a contract offer to Peralta.

    Do you think he could’ve signed Granderson without making an offer?

    and I dont want a vet catcher to start. I want one that knows he will be on the bench and will mentor whoever is our next catcher.

    John Buck has said he is comfortable in the mentor role. Not sure why he is not considered back

  • Just_Da_damaja

    …except we paid 60 mil for Grandy and they paid 16 mil for Byrd

  • Just_Da_damaja

    “Money wasn’t really an issue, because they have the best staff in baseball and none of them are making any money.”

    Who on the mets staff or roster aside from Wright is making any money when Peralta signed????

    Niese at 4 mil was the 2nd highest met in salary.

    So remind me again why we are going to pay Chris Young and Colon 17.5 mil this season, and we have Tejada at SS?

    I’d rather have Peralta at SS. Montero in the rotation, and Eric Young stays put in LF.

    Eric is a better beat to be a good leadoff hitter and spark the offense than Chris Young is in resurrecting his 2008-2010 years, going from a hitters park to a pitchers park.

    and if Eric gets hurt…we got Puello ready to take his place.

    ditto for Lagares or Granderson.

    Colon is dependent on good defense

    Tejada at SS
    Murphy at 2B
    Duda at 1B
    Travis at C ( with no vet backup )

    means u basically just wasted 20 mil on Colon.

    We were better off with a decent SS for 15.5 mil this year, a vet catcher for Travis/Centeno and Montero making his debut.

    Unless ur striking out the world, Pitching is dependent on good catching and defense

    having 3 out of ur 4 infielders bad at defense = ur pitching is compromised.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    that means u would have to know for SURE that those players would be available, wouldnt suffer any serious injuries, would actually still be good players

    Marco Scutaro for example in 2007 was 31 years old, hit .260 in 104 games for Oakland.

    Castillo was 31 years old, and had just hit .300 for the Mets/Twins.

    No GM has a crystal ball, you are doing your typical hindsight act

    As a matter of fact, if I go back, I see you in 2011 saying we should resign Reyes and trade Wright ( coming off a bad year )

    you change names ( t agee to jason bay ) and change stories

    now you act as if you never wanted to resign Reyes for 100+ mil ( which u were onboard with before he signed with the marlins )

    and david wright is now the greatest thing since sliced cheese

    all it took was reyes to have an avg 2012 and David to have a great 2012 for u to flip positions

    You are captain hindsight.

    I’ve outed u on so many occasions as being a flip-flopper its boring now.

    anyways, I’m still on vaca mode

    Hope the snow is treating you well

    🙂

  • Just_Da_damaja

    “I don’t know if anybody was terribly surprised by the McCann contract,” Alderson said of Brian McCann signing with the Yankees for five years and $85 million, with a vesting option for a sixth year. “I think people have been surprised about the Peralta contract.”

    “It’s been very lucrative for players who have signed so far,” Alderson said of the offseason. “Whether that continues or not remains to be seen.”
    Alderson said he and many others UNDERESTIMATED how much Peralta would get.

  • Daniel

    You don’t know that. You are severely undervaluing the importance of defense. Donaldson helps the pitching staff by being a good defender.

  • cjr45

    You forgot he also say the Marlins will be giving the Mets cash in the trade.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    No….you and WAR are severely OVERVALUING defense.

    You know how I know that??? Its easy

    If Detroit called Oakland today and offered Beane Miggy for Donaldson Beane wouldnt hesitate to accept.

    Realistically if there was a trade involving both players Beane would have to give up a LOT of top talent to acquire Mggy….THATS REAL VALUE

    Another scenario…If both players were unrestricted free agents today….Who would receive the most attention and bigger contract???

    MIGGY by FAR!!!And you know it

    That my friend is REAL VALUE!!!! unlike WAR which is nothing more than Fluff

  • Daniel

    Donaldson was like David Wright last year. We understand how important Wright is by watching him.

    Beane wouldn’t trade Donaldson for Cabrera because Donaldson is younger and only costs $500k. Cabrera is an extremely poor defender that costs his team a lot of runs. Donaldson was the exact opposite. Over the course a season, that difference adds up and is calculated in WAR. Defensive metrics aren’t perfect, but the good old fashioned eye test can tell the difference.

    You are probably the same type of person that think Cabrera actually deserved the AL MVP award the past two seasons. Trout has been an absolute monster who is great at everything.

    Of course Cabrera would get a ton of money on the open market because he’s proven himself for more than one season. If Donaldson has a 2013-type season for next 4-5 years, he’s going to get a fat contract too.

  • Thank you again DrDooby. It is encouraging for me to know that someone is not only reading my posts and that they are taking their time to provide carefully considered responses to them. The should, as I suspect that you know as well an anyone, that there are no excuses for the Wilpons not to do what needs to be done when it needs to be done to keep the Mets roster as competitive as the market will allow. It is very much apparent to a significant percentage of the Mets fan base that they are not and their lack of due diligence is reflective of the Mets win and loss records since the 2010 season to say the least. 2009 was the most injury plagued year in at least the most recent history of the Mets as I recall. But Madoff or no Madoff if their involvement with him did not affect the Mets baseball operations as they claim then their poor showing as owners that care about winning is the proof of the proverbial pudding that they are not simply doing their job as Mets owners because it obviously reflects poorly in the product that has taken the field since 2009. Then again if Madoff didn’t affect their baseball operations it reflects even more poorly on them than if it did. Unfortunately, this familiar drum has been pounded much too much by the Mets fan base on blogs like this one for much too long. It is time to turn the corner. If that means signing Drew then they have to do it. If they truly can’t afford him then they have no business in owning the Mets. There is no shame in that. They just owe to the Mets fans to do what is right for this franchise and if that means selling the team then that is what needs to be done. The Dodgers are an example of what can happen to a team that went from bankruptcy to an ownership team that cares about winning. I, as a long time fan of the Mets, am all for what ever it takes for the Mets to become a winning franchise again.