20
2013
If Cubs Eat Most Of Soriano’s Salary, Are The Mets A Fit?
An article by XtreemIcon
According to a report, the Cubs are willing to eat $26 million of the remaining $36 million owed left fielder Alfonso Soriano over the next two seasons, the last of the eight-year, $136 million deal he signed before the 2007 season. The contract includes a full no-trade clause, which Soriano invoked last season when he rejected a trade to the San Francisco Giants, using the negative effect the cold weather would have on his knees. I wasn’t aware the tropic of Chicago was a more appeasing climate. Be that as it may, the “six or seven teams” for whom Soriano says his agent has informed the Cubs he’d waive the clause are on the east coast or in the center of the country and include the Mets. It also includes the Yankees and Phillies, as well as a quick trip to the South Side. So, I guess it’s only cold in San Francisco. But I digress.
Soriano has been mentioned on several occasions as a possible trade target for the Mets in different capacities. He was a change-of-scenery swap at one point for Jason Bay and a plain old salary dump for Chicago at others. But after an off season in which not one veteran was acquired for the outfield, one may have fallen into the Mets lap. Soriano is coming off his best season since 2008. He hit .262/.322/.499 with 32 home runs and played the best left field we’ve seen from him in a long time. You do have to wonder which Soriano will show up in 2013 and even 2014, though. The 2012 Soriano, or the 2009-2012 version that hit .248/.305/.463 and averaged 23 home runs in only 134 games per season and played poor defense.
I would contend that the Mets already have a poor defensive left fielder who’s basement is .248/.305/.463 with 23 home runs (provided he plays every day). He’s also nine years younger and isn’t even arbitration eligible for two more seasons.
What makes Soriano attractive is the possibility that he can put up 2012 numbers again, and from the right side to boot. That’s clearly worth two years and $10 million. I would even explore the possibility of paying the Cubs more in cash and less in prospects, but I have a feeling Soriano’s resurgent 2012 is exactly the leverage Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer were looking for and why they chose now to offer to eat a significant portion of the contract.
They are in a rebuilding stage and Soriano’s value is the highest it’s been in three years right now. They’d probably offer to eat all the money if they could get a better prospect(s) out of it. So it looks like $10 million for two years is what it would be. The hitch is that while the Cubs overall farm system isn’t impressive, they are rich in RHP prospects (sound familiar?). And the highest upside lefties the Mets can offer, Jack Leathersich and Juan Urbina, are both very far away and work in relief. The Cubs don’t have anything in the way of catching on the farm, and 2012 draft pick Kevin Pawlecki has since been rendered somewhat obsolete, but again, he can’t offer immediate impact.
This is all supposition because we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Before it’s decided who the Mets should ship off for Soriano, it should be decided if he can produce more than Lucas Duda. Despite a very appealing 2012 season, and a bargain if it would only cost $5 million a year, my gut says no. Too much recent history tells the opposite story. Stick with the Dude.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
62 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Can he play RF instead? I am not sure. I thought defensively he was shot until I watched him last year. Wonder if he is on the good stuff? Anyway, if he could play RF and you go with a great defensive CF then your offense would be incredibly better.
Tejada, Murphy, Wright, Davis, Soriano, Duda, Buck, CF isn’t terrible at all.
RF at Citi is awful big for someone with two bad knees, I would think.
He doesn’t run very well anymore but he did make a couple of nice catches going down the LF corner against the Mets last year. I think those games were at Wrigly though.
Its something to think about. 20 hour power from right side,someone to protect ike
No thanks.
Well, you should also ask if bringing him in will affect the draft position for 2014. we’re shooting for that top 5 pick… Can’t mess with that either.
I think Duda, if he gets his confidence going again will out produce an aging Soriano any day. Not too mention Citi Field and Wrigley are two very different ballparks, and I guarantee Soriano does not hit anywhere near 32 playing 80 games at Citi! With Duda at least we know if he can get his head straight there isn’t a ballpark in MLB to big for him to hit it out. Soriano would make alot more sense if he could play center field would good defense!
It pretty much depends on what you think of Lucas Duda.
There´s no way that Duda & Soriano can ever appear in the same OF. That would be the worst defensive OF of all time.
So, it´d have to be Soriano INSTEAD of Duda in LF. Which may certainly be worth considering, if you believe Duda´s ceiling basically is a .275 BA / .330 OBP / .470 SLG type of hitter and you don´t like the odds that he´ll even be able to produce numbers like that.
However, if you trade for Soriano, what do you do with Duda ? I don´t see how the Cubs have any use for him. Sure, they can platoon him & Hairston in LF. But they´re set at 1b with Anthony Rizzo.
And I don´t see the Mets giving up any sort of significant prospect for Soriano.
So, to summarize, this seems like a very unlikely longshot.
RECENTLY, ON MLB0-TV I HEARD A CUBS OFFICIAL LAMENTING THE LACK OF AA & AAA SP IN THEIR SYSTEM & I’D CERTAINLY ATTEMPT TO QUANTIFY WHAT IT WOULD TAKE, AS BEHIND WHEELER IS A SEEMINGLY LONG LINE OF CANDIDATES NAMED FAMILIA, MEJIA, GORSKI, HEFFNER, ETC. IF IT TOOK 2 OF THEM, I’D DO IT IF FOR NO BETTER REASON THAN A POTENTIAL POWER PLATOON IN LF, DUDA/SORI. A 5.5M OUTLAY FOR LF IS A BARGAIN COMPARED TO LAST SEASON’S 16M EXTRAVAGENCE.
lol is this serious? It’s one thing swapping him for Bay, but come on?
Huh, where have I heard this before?
From you… You said it donal. You also said that Krod 88% save rate with the mets was terrible but then denied it. since this fits your agenda then this one you remember
I never said his save rate was terrible. I said it was average.
But I will say save rate is a terrible stat.
Whatever donal.. Obviously soriano is a good fit, but hasn’t happened. so calm down..
I wouldn’t say obviously. And last year when I proposed it, we were going with Duda in right and salary vacuum Jason Bay in left.
Do we put Duda back in right and Soriano in left?
Duda is a head case in RF for some reason. As poor as he is in LF, he is worse in RF.
Our defense is gonna suck anyways donal, might as well help the team as much as you can, and whether some like it or not, soriano is an upgrade over anything we have in the OF at this moment.. with him our lineup will look even better
Kirk/Tejada
Murphy
Wright
Ike Benjamin Davis
Soriano
Duda
Buck
Tejada/Kirk
Offensively it will stink but I can’t say that CF and RF defense will stink and the IF defense should be solid.
Why it will stink? What you looking for more OBP guys like andres torres? Don’t you think that having soriano who has power and the ability to drive runs hitting behind ike will help the team?
No you missed it. I am saying the current OF.
Offensively it most likely will be lacking but defensively at CF and RF it should be above average.
That being said, as I said in like the first post if Soriano could play RF it would be much more advantageous because we know for sure Duda can’t.
Duda and Soriano is a tough comparision. Obviously Soriano (if right) is a better offensive player. But, he’s probably far from right.
Duda has three major upsides:
He’s here and we don’t have to give up anything to get him.
He’s CHEAP. Even the $10M left for Soriano is a lot to this team.
He’s Young/Healthy.
The other intangible is that he’s never been rumored to be a knucklehead or clubhouse cancer.
Duda it is!!!
The money is right if the report is accurate. However, I dont see a fit unless the Mets are ready to give up on Duda which I dont get that sense. As it stands, I pass on the deal simply because I believe that Duda will outproduce Soriano. It is true that the scenario might be different if either could play RF but that isnt happening. Soriano is an upgrade over Byrd or Baxter…not sure over Duda. I think Duda will give the Mets at least 25 HRs this year.
He has a career of great power. That said, he goes through long, horrendous slumps, and is a poor fielder–not a good fit for the cavernous CF. He’s only get older, and I don’t see this guy performing well as a Met.
I predict a poor BA for this guy this season. A man in decline for sure.
Soriano is just plain bad news right now. If the Mets would have gotten him a few years ago then it would work. Don’t think its necessary right now. The Mets need to look somewhere else.
No thank you.
You can not give up the Rocket for Soriano. No way no how. Unless it is a bum prospect it is not gonna happen. It is bad enough you have to pay him 5 mill a year in 13 and 14. And in 14 he might be a bench player.
Maybe we could get Marmol and Soriano somehow and then trade Duda to the Brewers in a deal for Gomez?
Bingo! If Gomez will sign an extension.
Then duda can help milwaukee at 1B and LF with the injuries and impending free agency.
Like it.
Alot.
Yeah, it would be nice if Gomez signed an extension but either way you may not be losing much. His agent is Boras so you may not be able to sign him until after the season.
Hi TR,
Soriano at 37? Not much to say about looking for youth to take over. And sounds like Moises Alou as well. If the Mets were not going to punt 2013, that would be another story. But they are punting.
I like the idea better of keeping Gomez in the back of our minds if he shows contiued progress in 2013. This past season was the first in which he carried a decent bat so we have to watch and see. But with Gomez becoming a free agent after 2013 and Sandy’s distaste for long-term contracts, even if Carlos puts together back to back good seasons at the age of 28, I doubt that would be a match
Eh, “punting” is so subjective.
HI Trs,
LOL – not my word – was that of the GM after not re-signing Jose last year and after not signing anybody this year.
Right and in my opinion signing Marcum and Lyon and being in on Bourn isn’t punting. It’s just not going for it on 4th and 21.
Valdespin would most certainly be in the deal with someone like Hefner. Classic salary dump.
If were trading Valdy and Hefner, add another arm or two and get Fowler. The Soriano ship has sailed.
Dexter Fowler’s ship has sailed too. He is no more a hot prospect. He has five years and .271 career B.A. and at best average defense. I hate to say this but he is not much of an upgrade over Torres.
The irony we could have traded Hairston for Soriano last year at the trade deadline.
Regarding the Fowler comment …. his OPS has risen the last 3 years in a row, and last year’s was something like .863. He’s only getting better, and this year the shackles will be off so he will run more. I think your comment on Fowler is wrong.
Oh yeah, and he had a .389 OBP. I’d take him.
First- Rookies are always looking for a leverage trade and he is the bait.
Second: Coors Field
I’ll bet ya Rookies want Murphy for him.
He played in Coors Field 3 years ago when he hit .260, and again the year after when he hit .266. Last year he hit .300, again at Coors Field. Isn’t it possible he just improved? How can you attribute his rise in BA and OBP to Coors, when he played there all 3 years. Plus, you’re living in the past man, the Coors Filed advantage isn’t anywhere near where it was 10 years ago! If the Mets can get him, they should! He’s a big improvement on what they have now.
Look at his spits Home and away from Coors Field.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/29252/dexter-fowler
That’s a pretty small sample size. The year before his batting avg was 50 points higher on the road than at home. Also, he had a great August, when they played a bunch of games at home, which may have skewed the numbers. Plus, most players have better numbers at home than on the road. Here is an excerpt from a study that was done on the so called “Coors effect”:
So has the Humidor worked since being implemented before the start of the 2002 season? The answer is yes. The amount of HRs hit now sits with the rest of the MLB Parks that are amongst the top 10 over the last decade.
As I originally said before “Coors Field effect”:
Why is Colorado shopping him for elite players?
Whoever makes the trade for Dexter Fowler will give up more than they get.
I would worry too much about the splits, most players have home/away splits. Fowler plays a ton of games in pitchers parks in the NL west. Then you have handedness, citi it tougher on right-handed hitters than left, Murphy has huge home away splits to the benefit of home, Hariston had the reverse. Batting wise Fowler’s performance would probably level out.
Although he’s not a center-fielder and might be a better fit defensively in right. Maybe Colvin is available.
What a load of bad baggage. Didn’t want to play for a contender? SF is cold — is he so dumb that he forgot that the Giants play downtown now and not at Candlestick? Cold? No, he just wants to keep his bad attitude in Chicago.
I saw a night game in AT&T Park not long after it opened. Trust me on this one, it gets freaking cold.
Hi Boomer,
It gets cold in San Francisco, even on a summer’s night driving down Lombard Street.
BOOMER, I BELIEVE IT WAS WC FIELDS WHO ONCE OBSREVED THE COLDEST WINTER HE’D EVER EXPERIENCED WAS THAT ONE AUGUST HE SPENT IN SF!
IT’S A LONG ESTABLISHED FACT AS COLD JAPANESE CURRENT ENCOUNTERS SUMMER AIR CREATING THE WORLD RENOWNED SF FOG & FRIGID LATE SUMMER/FALL TEMPS.
No thanks on Soriano. Duda says he finally feels comfortable in outfield (LF) and we are going to move him back to RF? We have to see what Duda can give us for the future. I would think this would be his last chance with us.
Sandy Alderson would definitely make this trade… If the Mets were in the hunt for a playoff spot at the trading deadline. RIght now he really wants to see which of his pile o’ outfielders shakes out.
As for “punting” what he means is, if all things go right this is a team that can get close to a playoff berth!
If a deal requires and important prospect he aint worth it.
He’s #7 is most HR by an OF in 2012
but he is also #7 in most strike outs by an OF in 2012.
He brings experience and can take some of the spotlight off of others
He would also fit nicely in the batting order after Ike, but between Ike, Soriano, Duda there would a lot of strike outs.
DIOUG AS NEITHER DUDA NOR SORI HAS SHOWN ANY AFFINITY TO OTHER THAN LF, I SEE THEM AS AN EITHER/OR IN THE LINEUP MORE PLATOON THAN PAIRING TOGETHER; BUT U R CORRECT AS BOTH K TOO OFTEN & COMBINED THEY’D = A BIG HOLE AFTER DAVIS; BUT ONLY SORI CAN DELIVER THE PROTECTION,IMO.
Why would you want Soriano? With all due respect to Mets fans, they are going nowhere this year. The pitching will be horrendous and the offense mediocre, even with Soriano. Why not just gut the team this year and build towards the next 2 years, when you have Harvey and Wheeler on the mound, and d’Arnaud & Syndergaard et al. up as well. Soriano should go to a contender where he can have 1 or 2 more decent years and then hang it up.
I agree, we should get a young outfielder or give a chance to someone like Andrew Brown or Cowgill. Maybe they take off and produce for us.
Yes. And maybe, if possible, move David Wright for a package of prospects. Don’t think his value is going up from here, and he would still command a good haul in return. Just sayin’, if I was a Mets fan, that’s what I would want to see happen. Target 2015 as the year to start improving big time.
“Just sayin’, if I was a Mets fan, that’s what I would want to see happen.”
Same here…too bad, not that many agree with u
PF?? TRY ROOTING FOR MIAMI OR COLORADO WHERE THEY LOVE REINVENTING THE WHEEL
Miami is a different case. They just clear house completely every couple years which makes no sense. Colorado is different. I like what they have done bringing up and developing their own players. Problem is their pitching has been a disaster, and the good young arms they hoped would develop, never did. So they are a one dimensional team now. The Mets situation is quite different. They haven’t really rebuilt from scratch in ages, and they are at a point now where they have received from very good young talent in deals (like Wheeler), but the process is incomplete. They need to continue down this road, and in 2 years they will be a force in the East. Right now, they are a middle of the road team, with their best players getting older (Wright) and the young guys not ready. Why not just commit to the next 2 years and rebuild and then take a run at it? Makes more sense than continually finishing middle of the pack with no upside ….. no?
PF, WHICH WAS THE LAST TEAM TO CONTEND WITH ONLY PLAYERS OF 1,2Y EXPERIENCE?
HELL EVEN NATS REALIZED IT’S VIRGIN TERRITORY WHEN THEY CHOSE TO GO OVERBOARD ON JAYSON WERTH.
SEATTLE HAS HELD KING FELIX DUE TO REALIZATION THAT A CERTAIN CALIBER OF TALENT MIXED WITH EXPERIENCE IS REQUIRED TOFULFILL THEIR DREAMS OF PERENNIAL CONTENTION SO RATHER THAN NEED TO HOPE ONE MAY BE AVAILABLE WHEN ABSOLUTLY NEEDRED THEY CHOSE TO KEEP THE ONE ALREADY IN THEIR LAPS. THE METS WILL EFINITLY REQUIRE A DAVID WRIGHT IN ORDRE TO MEET EXPECTATIONS FROM THEIR RESTRUCTURING PROGRAM, A CAPABLE, LOYAL, CONSERVATIVE ROLE MODEL TYPE IMMUNE TO NY’s TEMPTATIONS.
THAT MY FRIEND IS A COMPLETE PKG THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE REPLICATED UPON DEMAND. WHILE U BEMOAN THE CURRENT LOT WHILE LOOKING UP RATHER JEALOUSLY @ NATS’ POSITION, DON’T EVER NEGLECT TO ACCOUNT THE PRICE PAID FOR THEIR CURRENT LOFTY CONSIDERATION… 2008 59-102, 2009 59-103 & 2010 69-93 FINISHING DEAD LAST IN ALL 3 SEASONS.
PF, I’VE LONG CONSIDERED OUR ACHILLES HEAL BEING FRED’S MYOPATHY IN NOT WEIGHING HEAVILY CONCERNING QUALITY DEPTH & TOP NOTCH DRAFT TALENTS WORTHY OF LARGE INVESTMENTS PRIOR TO LATEST CBA RESTRICTIONS.
Sorry… ah… NO
I just don’t see them doing it because I don’t think they would put him in RF, and they seem pretty set on seeing what Duda has in left. His bat from the right side would certainly be a great addition to the lineup and really give it some good balance. I can see them maybe doing it mid-season if Duda isn’t working out, if he hasn’t already been traded.