11
2013
2013 Mets Projections: David Wright, 3B
An article by 
A year ago, all the talk surrounding David Wright involved his long-term future with the club. A few down years in a row made people start to wonder if we would ever see the David Wright of old (circa 2006) ever again. Would the Mets re-sign him? Would they sell low and flip him for prospects? Well, a year later, he not only had a bounce-back season, but also secured his long-term future in New York by signing an eight-year contract, the most expensive in Mets history.
Wright had a down year in 2011, and was plagued by a stress fracture in his back for almost the entire season. He had hurt himself in mid-April, and wasn’t really the same again, hitting .231 over the last two months of the season while showing little in the way of power. In all, he finished the year with career-low marks in batting average (.254) and OPS (.771) with just ten home runs and 61 RBI in 102 games. Fans weren’t too high on him as his expectations (and value) hit a career-low. A great season for David was in the best interest of both him and the club. If he had a good season, he could cash in with a big contract, and the Mets would have the option to trade him and get a respectable package in return if they so desired.
Wright started off the season hot, hitting .394 with a 1.064 OPS over the first month of the season. He continued to hit well, batting .347 in May and .340 in June, with MVP talk heating up. Could he stick with the Andrew McCutchens and Buster Poseys of the world and compete for the batting title? The answer was no. Wright’s production took a turn for the worse after the All-Star break.
Over the second half of the season, Wright was far less productive, hitting a shade under .260 with a .750 OPS. His strikeout rate shot up again and his walk rank dipped. He was almost reverting back to his 2009-2011 self. The power was still there, but he was striking out more often. We’ve seen time and time again that if his strikeout rate goes up, his production goes down.
You can see that in his best years, his strikeout rate has been well below 20%. The past few years, however, it’s been well above that mark.
As usual, before I make a projection, I want to put it in context by showing you two other respected projections. One, ZiPS, is a very conservative computer projection. It doesn’t take into account injuries or playing time, but it gives a rather pessimistic view most of the time. On the other side, we have the Bill James projection, which is much bolder. Here’s what they both project Wright doing this season:
ZiPS: .274/.357/.449, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 18 SB
James: .302/.392/.488, 21 HR, 94 RBI, 16 SB
I think we have some reason to believe that last year’s second half for Wright was just a slump, and something that he will get over. He showed last year that he is becoming more selective again and laying off the inside pitch. Check out this chart from Fangraphs, comparing Wright’s “down years” from 2009-2011 and two of his “good years” (2008, 2012):
His selectivity was what made him very successful from 2004-2008 and is still the key to him producing now. The fact that he was more selective last year is a very good sign, and has me optimistic for Wright this season. While I highly doubt he will produce like he did in April and May, he will, in my opinion, have another quality season in 2013.
2013 Projection:
.298/.399/.508, 22 HR, 15 SB 6.9 WAR
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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‘Check out this chart from Fangraphs, comparing Wright’s “down years” from 2009-2011 and two of his “good years” (2008, 2012)’
Dang…for some reason this chart won’t load for me. Tried it in Firefox and I.E.
Anyone else having that same problem – or is it just me?
I’m having the same problem in Firefox.
I don’t see it either but here is the URL.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/david-wright-swinging-off-but-near-the-black/
Thanks!
The chart is loading now. I am using Firefox fwiw.
Ya, I went to the link on fangraphs and now it loads. Must be pulling it from cache.
Connor, before I opened this, I picked right around .300/.400/.500 with 20-25 HRs and SBs. So pretty much spot on what you predicted, and close to james.
Would be nice to see a little more even production this year of course!
If he had those numbers ZIP’s posted, it’s a guarantee then that the mets will lose 100 games, if he puts up the numbers bill james posted, then we’d probably lose from 85-90. which is fair considering what’s our roster.
HOWEVER, for a man that will be making $20 million per year, you’d think you’d expect something better than that no? I think that the pressure to perfome to that contract will make him struggle and he’ll end up with this numbers:
284 16 82 365 458 3.3 WAR
Did anyone see the Top 3B in MLB on the MLB network this past weekend?
If Wright wasn’t among them Kay then the list was a joke. Even during what some perceive as down years he still ranks amogn the best.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ApxE2V-jZhJHdHJuZHh0Mmswcm5iSnIzbjBWU2ZvSVE&single=true&gid=9&output=html
The shredder has him listed as 3rd best, Billy Ripken has him 5th, John Hart had him 3rd as well.
This.
My prediction, this thread will get ugly with multiple references to dimples.
If I was a gambler, I’d take that bet too! lol
Sounds to me like you both lost the bets …. You guys preach people starting fights etc, yet look at you two DA posting stuff to make people come in and get baited.
Grown ups do not get baited on an internet site.
Grown ups are always responsible for their own actions.
How about you read every comment you make, every day and take your own advise.
Have a nice day.
The beauty of the game is that it is played on the field. Not rain or shine like football. But at least we find out who will shine and who won’t. If you shine a lot your a star.
You’re a star.
I corrected it because I have to learn it. Is my “it” a hanging preposition. Now I am getting like “metsblog”. Thankfully no grammar police here.
Wright is a terrific player. His numbers may go up or they may go down but his play will always be good to superb. David Wright is a great representative for the Mets, both on and off the field. Among his attributes are talent, attitude, humility, hard work.
If Wright posts a 6.9 WAR this is truly going to be a nice season for the team especially if Davis and Duda step it up. Think about that offense plus the solid rotation and improved bullpen. 1+1+1 = damn good season.
Great job on this and interesting analysis. Wright was never the home run hitter some thought he was or would be. He gives you everything across the board and is one of the most well balanced players (offense/defense) in the history of the franchise alongside Carlos Beltran.
My prediction, this thread will get ugly with multiple references to clutch and captain.
Maniac, Wrong.. It’s ambassador now.
Did any of these stat comparisons account for horrible fences at Citi Field from 2009-11?? It doesn’t surprise me in the least that David returned to Shea-like numbers last year when the fences went back to average height/distance, just like Shea was.
And stats are great, but The Wonder of Wright was “right” when he alluded to the fact that stats do not account for other very meaningful intangibles for most fans, like character, dignity, etc. I’m MUCH happier rooting for Wright as my third baseman instead of A-Fraud over in the Bronx (who came close to being a Met after the 2000 Series, remember!), even though A-Fraud had better stats for several years there.