2013 Mets Projection: Johan Santana, SP

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• Metsie February 19, 2013 at 12:05 pm

  I sure hope Santana stays healthy and pitches well but if he does we will only get a half a year of that projection because they will trade him if they can at the deadline if anyone shows the slightest interest….
  • TRS86 February 19, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    I sure hope so.
    • Metsie February 19, 2013 at 12:13 pm

      I think the last thing they want to deal with at this point is trying to deal with another “What will we do with Star Player” in a fourth successive Offseason….

      So I expect even a moderatly successful season means Santana gets traded….
      I don’t expect much back from it but he will go at the deadline and what we get will depend on what else is available in the Pitching dept at that time.
      • TRS86 February 19, 2013 at 12:50 pm

        Nah, I am just hoping that we get something useful out of Johan for the future because I don’t see him as part of it.
        • Metsie February 19, 2013 at 12:53 pm

          When I say not much I’m talking Prospects…We might get a 4th OFer or some BP help maybe but anyone who is going to take the risk is going to want to keep all the good players considering they won’t get any picks for Santana and have to pony up the option money to keep him to get that.
          • TRS86 February 19, 2013 at 2:32 pm

            Just depends on how much of the money the Mets are willing to eat and how well Johan is pitching. Same could be said for Beltran at the time. There was no chance of a pick with him either. Mets paid most of the cash and got a top prospect. Not likely with Johan but still that chance.
• taskmaster4450 February 19, 2013 at 12:30 pm

  Personally, I think the ankle injury had more to do with his poor performance than advertised. It was his landing foot that was affected which, I am sure, caused some adjustment to compensate. Couple that with tipping his pitches and you have a recipe for major league hitters to tee off on. The positive is that Santana, when shut down, has soundness in his shoulder. I expect him to give the Mets a terrific first half and then, as mentioned, be moved to another team in July.
  • van February 19, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    I agree. I looked at the #s at one point, and going into the no-no his ERA was 2.75. Going into the ankle stomp game, it was 2.76. So basically, he was pitching the same.

    Pretty sure in that game he was doing fine, then got trampled, and gave up all the runs (HRs?) after they for some reason did not take him out.

    so MHO is that like you said, the ankle snowballed into the other problems.
  • Metsie February 19, 2013 at 12:58 pm

    The ankle doesn’t explain the 10 ERs he gave up in the two games after the NoNo…

    Maybe Tipping his pitches might but not the Ankle….

    He got shut down due to back stiffness and thats not something the Ankle would cause….
    What is more likely is he overcompensated with his body to protect the shoulder and put excess strain on his back in the proccess….
    • taskmaster4450 February 19, 2013 at 1:17 pm

      An alternative reason for the runs after the no-no.

      He threw 130+ pitches in that game and then had his routine all thrown off kilter by being held back 2 days if I recall. It might have had nothing to do with it but I sense that routine is very important to SPs. Too much rest is often as bad as too little rest.

      Of course, this is all speculation. There is no telling why Johan was so terrible after the no-no. It could have been one thing or a buildup of many things.

      Let us just hope he is much better in 2013.
• van February 19, 2013 at 12:48 pm

  Those #s look a tad optimistic. Mostly the IP, but if he hits that, the others should fall into place.
• Joe February 19, 2013 at 1:22 pm

  “there is some reason to be optimistic that Johan Santana can bounce back, and be effective.”

  Of course theres reason to be optimistic:

  A- Every single MLB player focus’ more & tries harder during their contract year(sad but true)
  B- In his contract year, He WILL find out whats the newest undectable, or not yet illegal, PED, and then use it.
• RandomGuy February 19, 2013 at 1:37 pm

  If Johan, is Johan this year.. pitches to an under 3.20, 170+ innings, do you think the Mets will think about bringing him back to try and lead this group of young players on something like a 2-3 year contract (rip up the extension) that pays him maybe 25. I think Santana would be willing to take that if he knew he had a Legit shot a WS, which I think he would agree with that by 2014 and 2015.. once again don’t count us out of the playoffs just yet this year, we’re gunna have some surprises.
  • Metsie February 19, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    Short answer….NOPE!

    They wouldn’t pay a younger and more needed OFer the money he wanted, there is no way in hell they will take the option @25Mil for a chance to pay him later to a multiyear deal and at CHEAPEST, the kind of money bourn got to a guy who has the injury he had and is significanty older…

    Especially not considering all this pitching in the Minors we keep hearing about….

    I think there are only two ways this plays out…
    He pitches well and he gets something in trade at the deadline….
    He doesn’t and they refuse the Option in the offseason….

    If you want a third option best I could think of he starts off struggling, Making him unattractive to anyone at the deadline and then finishes really strong where he might get traded to someone who will pick up the option late in the season or right after the season is done and the Option decision needs to be made….And thats the least likely to happen becuase why trade for him? Just wait till we let him go and sign him for whatever price you want without giving up a thing except exclusivity and the risk someone else will bid his price up on you.
    • van February 19, 2013 at 3:03 pm

      the option would not exist, unless he manages to pitch 215 innings (and the scenario he laid out was 170). so forget about that.

      the question was, if he finishes the year with the Mets (or actually any team) and becomes a FA, would you give him a 3/25 (2.33 AAV) contract to be the elder statesman in the rotation.

      I most likely would not, since while the $ are not all that high (basically what you would pay for that role on a 1 year deal each year), too good a chance of the arm falling off.
  • Alan from AZ February 20, 2013 at 10:13 am

    An interesting idea about bringing Santana back but if he shows himself healthy and pitches as well as you mentioned he is not going to want to take that kind of a pay cut and with his resume there might well be some team willing to gamble on him…but not us!
    I would say that any thing we get from Santana this year is a plus but it is time to move on!

    Loyalty to a player with his ferocity is great but not a good business practice! When you play with fire…you get burned as we all know too well.
• TJ February 19, 2013 at 5:07 pm

  Mets have a better chance of retaining Marcum than Santana, but I hope he has a great 1st half because that will help the team in more ways than one.
  • Joe February 19, 2013 at 5:48 pm

    Hes not going to go from making whatever millions hes making this year, (is it 28M?), down to something that the Mets will be comfortable with in 2014, NO WAY.

    I hope he goes 14-1 by the trade deadline and we can deal him to a contender, (even if WE are contenders), for a top-tier centerfielder/leadoff man type major leaguer or AAA top prospect. We certainly cant get caught up in the Reyes predicament and keeping him until the end of the season w/o any compensation for him after he walks away.
    Who knows, maybe SF has a SP go down in July, is in contention, & needs to replace that pitcher w/an ace, for Hunter Pence.
• Alan from AZ February 20, 2013 at 9:53 am

  I have a great idea guys…..Let’s spend the next two weeks arguing about why Santana struggled so much after the no hitter…..

  Are we gonna beat this to death too! GET A LIFE GUYS