Sports Illustrated released a list on Tuesday about a baseball phenomenon called the “Year-After Effect.” It’s been also referred to by the more widely known “Verducci Effect”, named after the SI journalist. But it was actually based on principles and protocols established by Rick Peterson, the former pitching coach, who was at Oakland at the time along with GM Sandy Alderson. Peterson believed pitchers 25 and under should not exceed an innings increase of more than 30 innings pitched.
The list is not “scientific” nor is it “predictive.” It is just a means of identifying pitchers 25 and younger that may be at risk for injury. It is based on the assumption that the pitchers identified will be taking on a larger workload for the following season. Here is the list that Sports Illustrated posted:
Matt Harvey pitched 59.1 innings for the Mets and another 110 in the minors for Buffalo collectively in 2012.
His workload is expected to increase this season—as he will most likely be a full-time starter in the Mets rotation from the start of the season.
The issue of limiting a pitcher’s innings peaked last season when the Nationals decided to shut down Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals lost to the Cardinals in the Division Series.
I assume the Mets will put a limit on Harvey’s innings again this season. I also assume that Harvey will put up a fight again, but it’s not his choice in the end.
Harvey’s innings pitched will increase a bit, but I don’t see it increasing much north of 169. He’s built like a transformer so he’ll get a little leeway. The Mets are banking on him to be the workhorse for years to come though. I have no problem capping his innings for 2013. There’s no reason to push him to the limit this season when expectations for the team aren’t that high.
What do you think the Mets will do with Matt Harvey in 2013?