22
2013
Who Will The Mets Get To Fill The Rotation?
An article by 
The Mets have had two things on their agenda this offseason. One of them is acquiring one more rotation arm on a one-year contract.
Right now, the Mets starting rotation looks something like this: Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, and Dillon Gee. The Mets’ goal is to get one more short-term pitcher until they can bring up pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.
Two names that have been thrown around to fulfill that role are Derek Lowe and Carl Pavano.
I’m not a big fan of Pavano, but he can serve as a stopgap for 2012. I can see the Mets grabbing him on a one-year deal. The problem is that Pavano, 37, had a bad year in a pitcher’s park. He went 2-5 with a 6.00 ERA in 11 starts for the Twins last year. Pavano also missed some time with a shoulder injury. Pavano’s best season was eight years ago when he went 8-0 with the Marlins (ERA – 3.00 / WHIP – 1.17 SO – 139 / BB – 49 / IP – 222.1 / WAR – 5.1). He’s averaged a 4.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 106.3 IP and 0.8 WAR per season with the Yankees, Indians and Twins since then. Maybe playing in the National League will get him back on track, but for one year, the Mets don’t have to gamble on whether or not he will.
Lowe is someone that I don’t expect to be brought back to the Yankees. He can be a possible interim arm for the Mets. He’s a groundball pitcher that experienced flashes of success last year with the Yankees and Indians. Lowe has played a lot of postseason baseball (26 appearances to Pavano’s 10). If anything he’d be a veteran that can help out a young Mets staff. He’s a durable pitcher that’s averaged 166.1 IP his entire 15-year career. At 39 years old, I can see the Mets bringing in Lowe at a low price and one year. That’s just the kind of situation the Mets are looking for.
I like Lowe over Pavano. The Mets can get more out of Lowe. He’s a low-risk sign. Both are for one year, but I think Lowe has a better chance of outlasting Pavano in 2013. Lowe has also seen more of the current NL East players than Pavano has (583 AB vs. 241 AB). The stats against them are similar, but here they are in that sample size:
Pavano – .320 BA / .343 OBP / .415 SLG / .759 OPS
Lowe – .298 BA / .336 OBP / .455 SLG / .785 OPS
Who do you think would be a better fit for the Mets?
About the Author: Daniel Nelson
Dan Nelson is a junior at San Francisco State University majoring in Journalism and minoring in Economics. He was born in Fair Lawn, New Jersey where he grew up watching the Mets. Dan was also the recipient of the 2013/2014 Otto J. Bos Memorial Scholarship, the largest scholarship the SF State journalism department has to offer. You can follow him on Twitter @pacific_theme
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You should know that the 5th starter is already on the Mets (jenrry mejia, Collin McHugh, Hefner, etc.) The Mets have no real intention of bringing anyone in, except Chris Young for the vet minimum.
I do not want to see hefner nor mchugh starting any games… At all!!!!!!!! long relieve when the game is a blowout either way, not starting games… Get me mejia or familia (Growing pains)
Alex while I agree with your sentiment on McHugh, Hefner, and lets throw schwinden in there as well…
If it means we spend the money on a decent OF and live with them until Wheeler gets his chance I really can’t complain TOO much….
I would much rather have Jenrry Mejia and/or Jeurys Familia fill out the 5th spot
It would not surprise me if they didn’t sign a 5th starter and rolled with what they have.
entirely possible they will add 5th SP to the list of positions (which should pretty much be almost all of them!) up for grabs in SP. Entirely possible that if they do bring in one of these retreads on a guaranteed deal/spot in rotation, they will be outperfomed by someone in ST anyway.
Niether? If you intend to bring up Wheeler by may or june why bother signing any of these guys? With rainouts and off days you don’t use a fifth starter that much the first month anyway!
What do you do when Wheeler is ready in a month or two if he doesn’t have a great spring
training and forces the mets to bring him north to queens? I’ve read that SA is promising the
fifth spot to who ever signs but when Wheeler is ready (and he will be ASAP) what do you
do with Lowe or Pavano?? I know Lowe can pitch out of the bullpen but if he signed because
SA promised him the fifth spot that will create more problems and if it blocks Wheeler from
coming up ASAP I’m really against it!! I would rather see Hefner(who pitched well at the end
of last year) and the other in house options compete to plug the hole till Wheeler’s ready!!
Kind of where I’m at too Craig….
I get the whole clock thing (don’t agree it’s all that important but I get it) regarding Wheeler but it makes little sense to get a pitcher for 4 months when we need an OFer all year….
If they wish to pinch pennies then get an OF with the pennie they claim to have left and lets give guys like Mejia and Familia thier chance to start and failing that get moved to the pen when Wheeler gets here.
If the assumption is we are not playing for anything in 2013 then why buy something for just 2013….
You do realize that Santana is gone by the trading deadline, right?
Only if he is actually pitching well enough for someone to want him….
any hint of injury or struggling and there could be no takers…
I would prefer Chris Young over both Pavano and Lowe, he pitched better last year and was coming off of surgery. I will assume he will be better this year, I will also assume Young will get hurt and that is when Wheeler would come up, if stars aline properly.
Shaun Marcum would be the best haul in terms of upside and production, but it would have to be on a one year deal. I would much rather Marcum over Pavano or Lowe.
If Santana gets traded which I think he will, then Wheeler takes Santana’s spot in the rotation. Marcum would provide more depth and possibly better production for a full season. There is always injuries as well so they really should sign a veteran that can give them innings. Also if they sign Marcum and he returns to form, they can possibly flip him and Santana at the deadline adding to the system and possibly getting a young controllable outfielder for 2014. So Marcum offers more in terms of trade value and a more productive full season, of course if he stays healthy, he is a walking band aid as well.
Also I would hope Wheeler is not rushed and stays down till July. There really is no need to rush him up. Darnaud should be here in May if he hits, but I think Wheeler can be held back till July. He only has 6 triple A starts.
I would hope we have a fifth starter among our pitchers until Wheeler is ready to come up.
Neither of the above, though I think Pavano would be worth the flyer of the 2. My guess would be Chris Young gets the call, Familia & Hefner in the BP, Mejia at AAA.
When Wheeler’s ready he will come up! You can’t stop a speeding train and you can’t stop
Wheeler either! The Wilpons need to give the fans a reason to come to the ball park and fill the seats and with there offense, bullpen and Dicky gone Harvey and Wheeler are there best reasons!!
Don’t waste the money or the roster space on filler. Use the arms we already have. We are a fourth place team. Are we trying to surge to third?
I personally think this season would be a good one to audition potential replacements for Santana next year.
We all so worried about filling Dickey’s spot but Wheeler will eventually do that.
What we need to determine is who is going to take over next season when we cut that 25 Mil because most of that is going to have to go to the OF if they spend it at all.
and when I say audition I’m talking internal candidates…
No one believed Gee was ready when he came up either and he surprised us…Pays to know what we have.
Agreed! With our pitching pipeline from the farm; why clog it up with filler. We have guys who once were prospects and are now aged out. It is time for trial by fire. Give them a chance to have a career.
And what doesn’t work as a starter will go towards filling the Pen problems.
I get they want to give Familia a bit more time in AAA (not that pitching in Vegas is going to help him at all, more likely hurt him)…
So start Mejia and if he can’t cut it move him to the pen, by then Familia will have some time and get his shot….
Same deal with him, if he can’t hack being a starter you have the option of putting him in the pen as well.
No need to fill a space that gives you fewer options to try out what you have only to have to do it next year anyway.
If we truly have a glut of Pitching then use it!
Yes, and it is cheap too! 500K per pro rated. Schwinden is filler. Let him fill the role that Acosta, Batista and Beato once filled. That of designated forfeitter.
JM,
I disagree on this. Alderson needs to come up with the 10-12 game established MLB starter that he referred to when he traded RA primarily to protect the young pitching. Yes, it may help the team compete for 3rd instead of 4th, but that is secondary. Right now, they have two guys – Santana and Gee – returning from significant injuries. Santana is a big unknown, and he can range from 1st half 2012 form to washed up. Also, he will be gone July 31 if pitching well unless the Mets are in a playoff spot, which is unlikely. Harvey will be on some type of innings limit this year. McGugh and Hefner are emergency guys at this point, not someone breaking camp with a SP spot. They need to give Wheeler, and for that matter Mejia as well, as much time in AAA as needed to refine secondary pitches/command. That can be 6 weeks, it can be 4 months. By signing a vet, in the worst case scenario, which would actually be the best case scenario, the kids push their way into the starting 5, and the Mets can shift SP(s) to pen or deal SP(s) to make room.
Well I wouldn’t call Gee’s injury significant…
It was a blood clot and while the solution was significant the issue that caused it is not.
It is treatable via medication (not a physical problem) but it can be a chronic problem if the medication doesn’t work well.
And who can say it may even have been an isolated freak incident that never happens again.
Santana I agree with you that was a significant injury and there are still questions about his durability and even to some degree his effectiveness….
Niese had some issues also. This staff has question marks. I would love to see us use a six man staff. This is audition year. Plus we are selling pitching: why run up the innings?
Niese’s is a bigger concern than Gee’s I agree with that…
I don’t have an issue with them going to a 6 man…But I’m not one that thinks it actually has the desired affect…
It may keep them healthier but will hurt thier endurance in the long run.
And it will be a problem when they get into a situation where you can’t take them out like it was when Johan pitched the No NO and was never quite the same….
In a six man rotation, I would think that we would push them deeper into the game. Less lefty righty stuff. More letting them work their way out of trouble. More mental toughness. More use of third and fourth pitches. More rest between starts. I wonder how many bullpens are worn out by always warming up?
Maybe but 99.9% of the time they pull him based on the score and situation, not because he hit his pitch count.
Sure they could increase the Pitch count for all but I saw no evidence of them doing that last year when they had the 6 man rotation going….
And in the end that 6th guy hurt the pen more than the other 5 saved it.
Cause that 6th guy rarely ever got past the 5th or 6th and blew out the pen for the rest of the 5 Man rotation….
But what you say is theortically possible and logical.
Just not sure they actually put the two together that way.
There must be a reason that the Majors don’t use the 6 man. Young was at best good for 5 innings. A spring training duel starter game may have saved the bullpen.
Same thing was said back when they used a 4 Man rotation about the 5 man! LOL
1 – Lack of Pitching, Hard enough to find 4 good starters for a rotation with some unproven or average pitcher as your 5th let alone find a 5th AND 6th starter…
2 – No one has ever really gone a whole season doing it and had success so no one else has really tried it. So they are not sold yet….
3 – The three games series! You want to have your ace pitch once in at every series. By having a 5 man if he starts the first game/series he will finish out the second series for you. Go to a 6 man and the top of your rotation pitches one series and the bottom of the rotation pitches the next one.
So the rotation of 5 helps you avoid the sweep in every series and you hope one of the others can win and win the series for you.
Great idea provided the ACE wins every game but doesn’t always work that way.
It still comes down to keeping your best players on the field.
I don’t want the Mets to waste resources on a starter that isn’t that good, we’ve already got the young guys who need a chance to prove themselves and Wheeler will be up before too long. Instead I want to see a solid addition to the bullpen, more a need in my opinion.
If they are going to add anyone else it should be a topflight outfielder but that isn’t going to happen unless they give up prospects and I don’t want them to do that either.
Rediculous to say on one hand we have a lot of young pitching in the waiting that just isn’t ready yet so we are going to buy Pitching when you have NO OUTFIELD in waiting OR on the MLB squad and you won’t sign anyone to play there….
Use what you have and BUY what you don’t.
Instead we trade what we have and then don’t buy!
I very much expect Chris Young to return on a 1-year contract, somewhere in the 2 to 3 million $ range with a few incentives eventually. He seems like a better bet than Pavano & Lowe who are more hittable, older and probably closer to washed up. Any of the three would suffice though as we´re merely looking at a placeholder for 3 months if all goes well who can later be “disposed” if no longer needed.
Wheeler – Mejia – McHugh should all get half a season, starting games at AAA. None of the three has more than maybe 10 starts at the AAA level thus far. And at least Wheeler & Mejia have well below 400 pro innings under their belt for now and should at least go over that figure.
McHugh looked tired late last season but certainly has solid potential in a Dillon Gee sort of way, so I wouldn´t write him off. However, he´d also benefit from a bit more time at AAA.
Hefner is a nice long reliever / spot starter who throws strikes – but probably not good enough for a permanent spot in the rotation. Neither is Laffey.