4
2013
Should The New York Mets Pursue Jair Jurrjens?
An article by 
Picture Courtesy of USA Today
Question: How many free-agent pitchers are 26 years-old, have had two seasons at the major league level with sub 3.00 ERA, and were named to an All-Star game?
Answer: Jair Jurrjens
There has been little to no talk about Jurrjens hooking on with any teams this offseason.
The question is why?
Granted, he is coming off an abysmal year that saw him sent down to the farm to work out his issues at one point. But is one season really enough to pull the plug on a pitcher that looked to be headed towards becoming the next legendary pitcher in Atlanta?
Apparently for the Braves, what they saw in 2012 was enough to send him packing. Could the fact that the Braves gave up on Jurrjens so quickly be what is scaring other teams away?
At this point, the Mets should be all over this guy. They should buy low on Jurrjens and see if he can regain the form that once led him to be an All-Star. They need to fill a hole in the rotation that was left behind when the team traded RA Dickey, so why not take a shot on a young pitcher who has had success at the major league level?
Jurrjens is not a power pitcher, but even after his 2012 campaign where he posted a 6.89 ERA, his career ERA is still a respectable 3.62. It would be smarter for the team to take a chance on a young pitcher, with a high ceiling, than a pitcher like Chris Young at this point (who is rumored to make a possible return to the Mets).
The Mets could sign Jurrjens to an affordable one-year deal, and if he performs well, they could potentially flip him at the trade deadline. They could also determine if they want to keep him and if he fits in with the team’s future plans. If he performs like he did in 2012, they could just cut him loose like the Braves did at the end of the year. Seems like a no-lose situation for the Mets.
Maybe with the added incentive of staying in the NL East and getting to play against the team that cut him loose, after just one subpar season, will light a fire under Jurrjens again.
About the Author: Mitch Petanick
Mitch is currently an Editor and Minor League Analyst for Mets Merized Online. His baseball experience includes being a former All-Conference collegiate baseball player who had numerous professional tryouts, and he is currently a hitting instructor. He has been involved with the game of baseball for over 30 years now as a player, coach, and consultant. Mitch is also a former Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @FirstPitchMitch.
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It would not be a bad idea I guess depending on how much he wants.
Agreed.
He is definitely worth going after but I read where he wanted a multi year deal. His medical lproblems that led to his high era was not an arm or pitching shoulder problem but a leg problem. I don’t think he’d love anything better than to take the mound against the Braves and prove them wrong. This guy is a mature pitcher and if on could give us 15 wins with an era below 4. Go after him if the price is right.
Yes the Mets should go after him. But with all the injuries the mets training and medical staff have had should we roll the dice on his leg. Withthe training staff history.
Hi Mitch,
Good thought. That’s what I meant about taking a chance of a young pitcher discarded by other teams in lieu of fill a roster space with an aging veteran for a fill-in. If it works out, the Mets could have another young – and proven – arm in the rotation, depending of course if Sandy wants to spend money. It all depends, of course, if the Mets saw in him the same thing the Braves did when they cut Jurrjens.
Just the fact that I’ve heard nothing about a team taking interest in Jurrjens makes me very suspicious. I know his velocity has dipped the last few seasons, his command was off, and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but here’s a 26 year old pitcher who’s had some good seasons under his belt, the Mets have been saying they’re looking for another starter, and they’re not taking a risk on him? You know how they love those “low risk, high reward” type of deals.
I think the reason teams are shying away as I said previously is that I read where his agent wants a multi year deal and teams aren’t willing to take that gamble. Tough call here.
I’d give Jurrjens a 2-year deal as long as the money he wants isn’t ridiculous with the way he’s performed the last few seasons.
I haven’t seen a single thing about him since early December – it’s very strange.
Incentive laden contract? Go for it. I said in another post that they should consider Branden Webb under the same conditions.
I say give him a 2 year deal, I rlly think this guy can turn it around. He is still so young and is definitely a better choice than any other low pay pitcher in the market. If mets land a deal with him, I will be very happy.
Yes. Worse case scenario he’s a two month place-holder for Wheeler. Best case scenario, he bounces back and gives innings to a rotation that will need solid innings because of the eventual injuries or struggles. The only question really is cost. Which seems to be the only thing our organization cares about these days. Is this guy a fit?? Doesn’t matter…what does he cost? Do we think he’s healthy and capable of bouncing back…it doesn’t matter…what does he cost??
His agent could deal him right out baseball with such demands. I wouldn’t go more than a single year contract simply so we don’t get stuck with a spot being taken up on the 40 man roster for one who might indeed be washed up – unless eating up the contract is of lesser concern if the Mets think he still has something.
See if he is still available toward the end of the month, then offer him a one year incentive laden deal, with an option for another year, if that type of contract is allowed. Best case he wins games and provides innings. Worst case he flops, Mets are rebuilding are they not?
I’d love them to take chances on guys like Jurgens, Young, B.wilson, etc.
At the very least, one of them does great or even good and there’s another trade chip in July when the Mets might very well be out of it.
no. He is not an AAAA player.
Since he became available I thought the Mets should try to sign him. They don’t need to spend big at this point. Really, as if Delgado, Beltran, Reyes, Wright, Martinez and Santana won the Nets a championship….all the money spent there. Looking forward to some of the young minor leaguers and once Santana is off the books.
They didnt win anything for the Mets, either.
yes Mitch they should but only if they sign him to a minor league deal this way people can still complain
nice…that was a lol
Come on…you have to admit not signing a single major league free agent is kinda nuts.
The last time the Mets signed a player to a major league contract, Gary Carter was still alive. Fact.
No, no, no. They need to do better.
Example?
Marcum (if healthy), Capuano, even Harang and Young. JJ is potentially better than all, bt too risky given the loss of his fastball combined with the uncertainties of Santana and Gee returning from the DL.
Here’s what I don’t get: Even if Jurrjens lost the velocity of his fastball, he still can find a way to be effective and take on a different approach as a finesse type of pitcher, like Dillon Gee. I saw it in him when he came back against Boston last season. I’d be more concerned about how Santana performs than Gee. Recently, it’s been reported that Gee feels great with a better blood flow and the throwing program in his recovery is going smoothly. With Santana, is the ankle 100%? Most importantly, can he repeat the type of performance he did pre-no hitter? The answer is an obvious one to me.
Harang & Young= Pass.
Capuano & Marcum= Yes. Been pushing for Marcum for a while now, being that like Jurrjens, is the type of guy the Mets like in those “low-risk, high reward” type of deals.
The issue with that is that they won’t be in position to develop that…
They are looking for a guy who can come in and eat up innings not someone who could become a great pitcher by them developing him.
But I agree just losing a fastball is no reason to say a guy is no longer able to be successfl…
By the way has anyone else noticed the grip Jurrjens has in that picture…I can’t figure out what the heck he was trying to throw. Maybe that’s why his walks and ERA was so bad last year!
Mitch, it looks like a palmball. His version of the change. Trevor Hoffman used a palmball for his change, which was one of the best in the business. Jim Palmer threw a palmball, too.
Tough for me to make it out without seeing his bottom two fingers. He almost looks like a sidewinder in that shot and from that angle.
Looks like the bottom two are just curled up on the side of the ball. It’s a two-seam fastball grip, but that deep in his palm looks like a palmball that’s designed to fall off the table and bit in a RHB and tail away from a LHB.
Hi Guys,
I notice you’re looking at the way he grips the ball – not at his statistics – for some answers.
Shows you know what baseball really is. And good observations too!
Joe D, it does look like the only way to throw that pitch would be from a side-arm angle from where his thumb is placed on the ball.
That’s what I figured – some sort of palm/change. But with his thumb on the side of the ball instead of underneath that has to be nearly impossible to control.
We probably have heard absolutely nothing about Jurrjens for a reason. Either his asking price is unreasonable, he want several years, or his medical reports are omenous. If it is one of the first two, I am sure Sandy will be all over it when the time is ripe. If Sandy is nothing, he is patient. And his patience is often rewarded. He may wind up getting outbid if the final price exceeds what Sandy thinks Jurrjens is worth, but he will not lose him because he didn’t try.
Several of Sandy’s retreads have redeemed their careers. Several had bad seasons. The good ones just walk. I’d like to see Sandy sign some of these value players with team options for additional years. The option buyout should be low, 100k or so. A player looking to stay in the game is not in the best negotiating position. Give them non guaranteed contracts. Just like football.
At first glance, Jurrjens looks like an intriguing option for the # 5 spot in the rotation, considering his rather young age. However, over the past 5 years, he has lost 4 mph on his fastball – from 92.6 mph when he entered the majors in 2007 to 88.6 mph in his dreadful 2012 season. And this has been a constant regression, not a sudden dropoff you can relate to a certain one-time injury.
Not sure that a pitcher like Jurrjens is really a better option than one of the other retreads being discussed – be it Young, Pavano, Saunders, Stauffer or Marcum.
The Mets should definitely sign one of them to have some depth and options – as Wheeler, Mejia and McHugh all haven´t made more than 12 starts at AAA each so far and could use a bit more time there.
Should they? Yes
Will they? No.
As we have seen sandy doesn’t like to spend money, and when he finally does is on POS’s like rauch and francisco, so not only he doesn’t like to spend but when he does he then procees to batch that as well. The man is unique in terms of mediocrity so, don’t expect guys who are actually GOOD to walk in trough the mets door.
The mets keep letting players slip right through their hands because of the wilpons and sandy. Let’s face it they won’t do what’s in the wright of the team. The time is now and the future is now so they need to stop playing games with us fans. We need to get in gear and make our mets contenders not for one year, not two but for years to come they owe it to us fans. The games need to stop and finally get serious. Sign these players to two year deals at at 12 mil. let’s win win win, do u get it wilpons.
I’d bring him in for a 1 year deal,maybe with a club option for a 2nd year as long as he doesn’t want an outrageous number of $’s.
[...] a post to Mets Merized Online, Mitch Petanick explores the possibility of the Mets signing RHP Jair [...]
The only way an organization such as the Braves lets Jurrjens walk (and for him to subsequently receive no interest on the market) is if he’s hurt or something. He’s obviously hurt or something. If he’s healthy, I’d be open to a minor-league deal, but there’s seemingly a problem.
I see on the right here that SNY has picked up on Mitch’s post.
Chris Young seems a much better option of all the remaining free agents. His productivity this past year through the first 5 innings is really above average. His third time through the lineup caused his ERA to skyrocket. One more year removed from surgery should alleviate some of these problems. Also, he has proven he can pitch in New York. Hear that, Carl Pavano apologists??
The reson why his ERA sky rockets after the 5th inning is because the major league hitters adjust to the slower speed of his fastball and it turns into batting practice. Young is a drain on the bullpen if he can only last 4-5 innings in a game before he gets shelled. The Mets bullpen has enough issues. There is so much more upside with Jurrjens if he can get his act together.
Calling Young’s fastball a fastball is an insult to the fastball. If it went any slower it would be going backwards.
[...] a post to Mets Merized Online, Mitch Petanick explores the possibility of the Mets signing RHP Jair Jurrjens. “At this [...]
Well I’m not sure but he does seem to fit this FO’s penchant for shopping in the Damaged Goods, Returned and Opened Merchandise and Bargain Bins they seem to love to look in.
He is awful and has nothing to bring him back. Every projection on him justifies the Braves dumping him. We don’t want another Perez right?
The problem with projections on a player like Jurrjens is that they are based on numbers but doesn’t look at why numbers are declining. A simple fix in mechanics (if it’s a mechanical issue) could blow up those projections. They assume he will steadily decline over time due to previous seasons, and they may be right, but at 26 years old, unless its an injury, he definitely can turn this around. The problem is nobody an put a finger on why Jurrjens has been off so any projection is based on the assumption that he can’t be fixed which makes it a flawed projection.
Hi Mitch,
That is why I gave kudos to you and others who were looking at the way he was gripping the baseball instead of his stats. That’s how it’s done, not through a computer.
You must have forgotten who I am and what my reputation is on this site.
Hi Xtreem,
Technically your reputation is not at stake – after all, you were looking at that picture through a computer monitor!
But recalling how Palmer and Hoffman gripped the ball and what such a placement causes the ball to do makes me also believe if asked in the broadcast booth you would have been able to point out some things Ike Davis was doing differently with his mechanics instead of saying you were just an “observer”. l
Don’t you know Joey?
X is the lord High Priest of OBP!
And Statistical Analysis….
He has 30 Years of research under his belt…It all came to the wrong conclusion and was showed to be wrong in about an hour but he has that 30 years of work in you know…
LOL
Hi Metsie,
Came across this interesting article from a Phillie writer trying to contend a correlation between run scoring and PPPA. He uses a few years to show run production going up with higher PPPA with certain players. However, when he came across a period when the Phillies were scoring more with a lower PPPA from certain players he excuses it by saying “if they were seeing more pitches, they would likely score more runs.”
So when a statistical correlation shows an opposite affect has it now come down to the addition of a disclaimer in order to dismiss it? I can imagine Sandy coming on television to downplay the Mets scoring more runs by saying they could be scoring even more following his methodology. The other side of the coin – saying maybe they would have scored less by taking more pitches – would never enter the conversation.
Bottom line is an average of four could be result in a 2-2 count as much as a 1 ball 3 strike plate appearance. It’s a stat but is really a quite useless piece of information
http://ianriccaboni.wordpress.com/tag/pitches-per-plate-appearance/
No it’s more like….
These stats show you the story I want you to believe and if they don’t tell you that story they WOULD if that team had done better in the category I say is important….Because they would have been better statistically…
It’s a pile of crap….
Here is something I cooked up to twart X’s 30 years of research about how High OBP relates to HIGH RS…
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/does-ops-correlate-better-to-runs-scored-than-rbi.html
Truth is most statistical analysis isn’t done to find truths about baseball…
They are used to prove theories people have about baseball and the problem with that is the analysis is usually created by the thought and as a result the equations and weights used are a product of the bias and constructed to come up with the answer they WANT to see not the answer that the Stats really tell.
You cooked it up, but you’re still and always will be wrong. Factually 100% wrong.
Agree. There is some benefit to statistical analysis and modeling, but the game is still played on the field and the human element can never be accounted for by computers.
The real problem with Stat Analysis is the guy who is making the analysis usually puts his own bias and beliefs in creating the math that constitutes the analysis….
So he gets the answer e was looking for not really the story the stats tell him…
This is exactly why you can’t be trusted at all. You say this guy’s a Phillie writer? Blatant lie. It’s clear you didn’t read the article or didn’t understand it. I actually read this guy’s article. And understood it. As PPPA went down from 2010-2011, so did the runs scored. He wrote it on June 13th, which was 66 games into the season and they had scored 267 runs. After 66 games in 2010, the Phillies had scored 307 runs.
I think it’s a very weak correlation and I would contend the decrease in runs is due to a team decrease in on base percentage and slugging percentage, but that’s not the point. The point is, the author was mistaken is his findings, which would have lended itself to your ridiculous assessment if in fact he was right. They weren’t scoring more with lower PPPA, they were scoring less, which agrees with the general principle. But you think that gives you license to undermine anything you don’t agree with or understand. In other terms, you’re agreeing with a factually incorrect statement.
Sorry, this was in reply to Joey D.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/01/should-the-new-york-mets-pursue-jair-jurrjens.html#comment-334656
You read it did you?
Guess you missed this then….
“Through this, the Phillies have done more by seeing less over the last few seasons”
No, I read it. You must have missed where I said that was wrong an they’ve actually done less with less. Which is 100% accurate.
Minor league deal with Spring training invite. You can see what he has in Spring Training and let him go if he shows nothing or maybe goes to minors for awhile.