23
2013
League Source Says Bourn Could End Up With Mets
An article by Craig Lerner
Updated By Craig Lerner on 1/23
The plot keeps thickening as Adam Rubin reports the following:
A reliable major league source with knowledge of the Mets’ plans would not dismiss the possibility outfielder Michael Bourn could end up with the team.
The Mets have a glaring need in their outfield. Currently, Lucas Duda is slated to play left field, with Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Collin Cowgill platooning in center field. Until another addition is made, Mike Baxter and Andrew Brown would appear the two logical candidates to pencil in for right field. Bourn also would provide the Mets with a bona fide leadoff hitter, which they currently lack.
As previously mentioned, signing Bourn would cause the Mets to forfeit the 11th overall pick in the draft. Sandy Alderson all but indicated he was unwilling to do that a few weeks ago. Rubin has tried to see if the Mets GM stance has changed, but Alderson has not replied to his email inquiry as of this afternoon.
Bourn hit .274 with nine homers, 57 RBIs and 42 steals in 624 at-bats with the Atlanta Braves last season. He primarily has played center field during his major league career.
Some of my colleagues raised some good points last night and while I’ve been totally against signing Bourn most of the Winter, if his price were to come down to lest say the three year, $45 million deal that MMO’s Mitch Petanick speculated in the comment thread, I wouldn’t have as much of a problem with bringing Bourn onboard.
Updated by Craig Lerner on 1/22
So if you haven’t heard the latest, here it is. Jon Heyman was on MLB Network this evening and reported that the the Mets have been discussing Michael Bourn quite often lately.
After processing the possibility that the Mets are seriously considering signing the former Brave and forfeiting their first round pick to do so, I’ve come to the following conclusion on the matter….
I hope Jon Heyman is wrong!!!
Updated 1/20
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says this morning that “the Mets are not out of the picture if the price and length of commitment come down” on free agent outfielder Michael Bourn.
As you can read below, I don’t see Bourn and the Mets as a match for the reasons I specified, chief among them being that it would cost the Mets their first round pick.
Original Post 1/15
I don’t understand why I continue to read posts and comments about the Mets needing to sign center fielder Michael Bourn. Why?
I look at Bourn’s age (30) and his career numbers, and I don’t see what the fascination is all about.
Is it just the speed?
Bourn, who is represented by Scott Boras, is reportedly seeking a deal worth $100 million dollars as a free agent.
I see that number and it takes me back to the Jose Reyes situation a year ago.
Wasn’t the main reason we didn’t re-sign Reyes due to the fact that his entire game relied heavily on his legs?
Wasn’t one of our chief concerns that speed is usually one of those assets that rapidly declines when you’re on the other side of thirty?
Why would we give Bourn the same deal Reyes was looking for when he is a year older than Reyes and plays less of a premium position than Reyes did?
Honestly, I really don’t see the logic here.
Bourn’s speed is already in decline and while he plays a spectacular defense in center field, his on-base skills are nothing to rave about.
Besides what I already mentioned is the fact that signing Bourn would cost the Mets their first round pick which is the No. 11 pick overall.
Is Bourn a player you really want to sacrifice a high draft selection for and also give $100 million dollars to?
I’m sorry, but I just don’t see it.
You could make a great argument for going after Justin Upton or checking in on the Nationals’ Michael Morse. But I see no reason to make this kind of an investment for Bourn, who is just a mediocre player on the downward slope of his career.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 22 | .511 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 24 | .467 | 5.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 25 | .405 | 8.0 |
| Marlins | 13 | 32 | .289 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/21/2013
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He’s maybe a bit above avg., but as you ably demonstrate, Craig, nuttin’ special.
RUSS, LET’S NOT FORGET ‘A BIT ABOVE AVG. IS CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN OUR PRESENT OUTLOOK
PERSONALLY, I DOUBT THERE’S REALLY ANY INTEREST BY ALDERSON & THESE THREADS TO THE CONTRARY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A BORAS’ SOURCE SINCE FEIGNING MYSTERY TEAM OR A BIG MKT TEAM & ESP A NY TEAM INTEREST IS @ THE HEART OF A BORAS’ PUBLIC PRESENTATION.
To me it is a ploy. Mets have an offer on the table (aka trade offer) and this is being leaked is a tactic to get the other team to accept our offer. No way are do we want bourn. Not worth the money & draft pick. Sandy is too smart to take this guy.
Agree entirely with your post. This would be a signing everyone would regrets in a year or two.
Year or two? I would regret it at the time it was signed, at the AS break, the following year…
Agree entirely with your post. This would be a signing everyone would regrets in a year or two”
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm… sounds like someone who’s also 30 and we gave a sh*8 ton of money as well…
Alex, you never miss an opportunity…
While 30 must always be a concern, I think Lerner was more concerned about the statistical evidence. Sayin’.
never let facts get in the way of a good agenda or rant. Takes all the fun out of it.
And the issue with Bourne per the article is that A) speed (SBs more accurately) goes quick at 30+, and B) Bourne never really was all that good, and pretty much just brought the running to the table, so without that, you got not much.
key being, if you are going to make a big deal for a guy, make it one that was actually a really good player, and not dependant on SBs (or just his legs) for most of his value.
Bourn also plays an excellent CF, hits leadoff well
Not worth 100 mil by any means, bit 5 / 60 is a good deal.
He is a 12 mil per year player
5/$60? What have you been smoking? Even if he is worth $12M a year now, you are claiming that he is going to be that way in a couple of years from now. History is against you 100% on that one. How many GG CF are there at the age of 34? Most are moved to a corner of right at about 30 or 31. Even Andruw Jones, as great as he was defensively, didnt play CF everyday past 31.
So you are going to give $12M a year to an average ballplayer who’s most valuable asset, his defensive play in CF, is most likely gone in a year or two.
But then again, as long as money is being spent that is intelligent to you.
If you’re referring to Beltran you’d be dead wrong there. Beltran is one of the best players that the Mets have had in their entire history. Despite Game 7 of the NLCS Beltran is all-time great Met. People really need to see that.
Id say we can take a chance on him at 36M for 3 years. Other than that, no.
He really isnt all that gr8 of a player.
Bourn is an awful fit for what the Mets need. His numbers will not significantly pass what we have in CF or what is on the way. What they need is a RH power bat, not an LH spray hitter that cost big money and had a career year last year. Seriously, 155 strikeouts from a lead off hitter?
Don’t get me wrong, he’s better than what they got but that’s like saying rotten milk is better than rotten eggs.
TRS86,
I agree that Bourn is slightly overrated, and he isn’t worth anything close to $100 mil, that is Boras garbage. I do disagree somewhat with the skillset. This team desperately needs 3 things that Bourn offers – 1. a real leadoff hitter 2. OF D in CF and 3. speed. Yes, he whiffs a lot, too much, but the fact that he is lefthanded without power does not matter for the leadoff spot. The RH power needs to come from a corner position unless the Mets can somehow clone the 2006 Carlos Beltran (and then get him to agree to sign for $2 million). Tejada is a nice player but not a leadoff hitter, despite his somewhat impressive OBP. I also can’t assume that anyone on the farm projects to Bourn’s MLB production. Den Dekker maybe, but that is a big maybe. Nimmo is years away. Kirk is a nice player but also unlikely to perform like Bourn. I would keep the pick as well given what Bourn will ultimately get, but in a dreamworld where the could sign him for say 3 years $36 mil, I would consider giving up that pick, but someone will give him more as he is a better investmsnt than Victorino and Pagan at this point in his career.
You are right, speed would be nice. What I am saying though is without Bourn the most glaring need is a RH power hitter, with Bourn our most glaring need would be RH power hitter. Considering the Mets lack of resources they can’t go around using what little they have to get something that wouldn’t change the most glaring need. If that makes sense. How many more games would the Mets win with Bourn in CF instead of Kirk and a platoon partner? How many more games would the Mets win with a big RH bopper to hit in the middle of the order?
TRS86,
Yes, a debatable point. I think the only big RH bat attainable is Morse, but who knows if and when the Nats will trade him, if they will deal within the division, or if the Mets will meet the price for 1 year of control. Upton is a long shot but I don’t see him as the big RH power bat even if they get him, he actually strikes me as more of a leadoff hitter in Citifield. I lean towards the CF/leadoff hitter netting them a little more in wins, if they can find a guy that has a legit shot at 100 runs scored and good D, I think they can paste together enough makeshift RH power in the 5 spot by a combination of Hairston and hopefully later in the year D’Arnaud. And, the RH power in the 5 hole is really only an issue vs. LH pitching, as Duda will be counted on to cover Ike vs. RH pitching. They need a leadoff hitter that can play, get on base, and score against all pitching. It’s a close call either way, and I think part of what is taking Alserson so long to do something is that a decision on one front impacts a the other front given the monetary limitations, but more importantly the limitation of how many prospects he is willing to part with.
To me it is a ploy. Mets have an offer on the table (aka trade offer) and this is being leaked is a tactic to get the other team to accept our offer. No way are do we want bourn. Not worth the money & draft pick. Sandy is too smart to take this guy.
“What I am saying though is without Bourn the most glaring need is a RH power hitter”
There was this guy called BJ Upton…but met fans thought he was a bad clubhouse cancer who struck out alot and moonwalked when he felt lazy.
Bill,
You’d offer that much for Bonafacio???? Let’s stay pat. We’re already seceding 2013. Let’s build for 2014 and beyond and wait until we’re a few players away before spending Fred and Jeff’s precious pesos on FAs.
Agree with all your points.
The fascination with Bourn…..I haven’t seen anything from the Mets organization talking about Bourn, only the fans.
I don’t think there has been any fascination on the part of the Mets as they’ve had no connection to him.
Can’t stand what Bor-Ass does for a living.
As somebody who has said they’d take Bourn, I assure you I mean only on a 1-2 yr deal max. It’s mid January and he’s still out there, so the price should come down.
I don’t think any Mets fan is really wanting Bourn if it costs $100m.
I don’t think anyone is advocating signing Bourn for a $100MM offer from the Mets. First of all, apparently the team is broke…which is code for the owners care more about their business than putting a winning team out on the field. Two, if the Mets had $100MM to spend, they could’ve had two starting OFers this offseason instead of Bourn. Three, the fascination comes because: he is better than anything we have out there, by a LOT; he adds speed, defense, and an all-star level talent to a team that has maybe one or two such players in the lineup; the thinking is his price will drop and he will take a one year deal to rebuild value (this may not be true, but this is what people who want Bourn are generally hoping for); and oh yeah, it’s a move that makes the team better NOW. For all the future talk…now matters too, especially when the future of at least two other teams in the division looks much brighter than yours.
He’s a great CFer, but yeah everything else about him (with the exception of his SB #s) is pedestrian. He’s not the hitter Reyes was, not by a long shot. Reyes had some pop. The 100 million dollar talk is all Boras hot air.
The interesting thing to watch in all this is how the qualifying offer stuff plays out. This last contract that was negotiated by the players association and MLB i thought was a huge win for MLB … Selig and his push to broaden his small market paradigm and reduce player salaries succeeded in numerous subtle and not so subtle ways. Punishing teams with real penalties for going over slot, the qualifying offer, status quo with arbitration, it all weakens free agency and consolidates team control of young emerging players. All bad for the big markets and their spending trends. The players gave up all that for fear of a salary cap.
The salary cap though would really only impact 1-2 teams it seems if they just made the luxury tax a hard cap. Though with the penalties, they are making it as close to hard as yo ucan get.
Yeah exactly, in practice it’s like a salary cap. Seems like MLB used the threat of a hard cap to get all manner of concessions from the P.A., tacking on the slot penalties and qualifying offer rules, further limiting free agency and larger markets’ propensity to spend. I don’t think the qualifying offer will hurt the elite free agents — teams will give up the draft pick for them without hesitating — but with teams already valuing their top picks (again because of the slot penalties) they’re less likely to offer contracts to middle tier free agents like Kyle Lohse — those are the guys that will really be hurt. What the players should have demanded is a salary floor — unlike any of the other major north American sports MLB has no minimum dollar amount that teams are required to spend.
In total agreement with you Craig! Michael Bourn is a good player but not for us now. Maybe, it would have been a consideration in the past but that kind of money with our financial situation.
And being that he is a Scott Boras client is another reason to walk away!
Nada!
agreed that if you took say 1/2 of Bournes SBs away, there is relaly nothing that sticks out as being more than a nice player but not a star, with no particularly strong suit (offensively).
And there have been plenty of young speed guys that once they hit 31, and sign their “big” contract to ride off into their elder years, stop running nearly as much. or 1 leg injury, and poof, they stop running all the time.
I actually like the Revere guy that the Phils picked up. Seems like Bourne, lite.
the guy i really would love to see them get is Carlos Gomez. I assume he is tradeable for, but no clue what chance there would be to extend him (since he is a post 2013 FA, and a Boras guy).
if they could trade for him for a reasonable cost, and extend for a few years now, that would be nice to see.
or just (heck, and just) sign Alvarez, and take a shot on the upside.
so for the price Bourne wnats, get Alvarez and Gomez, and see what happens!
Agreed.
Amen , at least Reyes played SS (not to mention being a better hitter) I think Boras finally bit of more then he could chew here, This guy is average at best
The enfatuation associated with Bourn is all because of his speed. The Mets could us a guy like him because he plays a terrific centerfield and can hit at the top of the order. But, he is defenitely not worth 100 million dollars.
If he takes a two year deal with a TEAM option, I’d bite. He’s better than anything we have now, have in 2014 and have in 2015. I also wouldn’t go more than $9 or $10 mil a year.
I guess, but then again if it’s only for two years and you have to give up your top pick and the money associated in the draft while one of those years (this one) he wouldn’t make a damn bit of difference…
I guess if you could do it where you too get to offer compensation and get that pick back eventually but in 3 years what will that qualifying offer even look like?
If the Mets really cared about their second round pick (#75) they would have signed their second rounder last year. It’s a non issue.
they’d be giving up their 1st rounder if they sign Bourn. Not their 2nd rounder
You mean like a Cecchini type? Still a non issue.
maybe, maybe not. Still I’ll take the word of scouts who actually see a High School player with their own eyes over a guy who pretends to know anything about him before he’s drafted.
He could bust, who knows. But I’ll promise you the Mets know more about him than you do.
Says the biggest ass licker for the front office on MMO.
Says an adult who uses the term “ass licker” when somebody challenges their point of view?
Bourn is definitely not worth surrendering your first pick for. I’m really not interested in him, if he could strike out less and had a higher OBP maybe. The 11th pick should’ve been included in the excluded list.
Also when has Carfardo and the Boston Globe been accurate about anything
why sign bourn when u can have open try-outs in CF
virtually guarantees a poor defensive OF on a staff full of fly-ball pitchers !!!
We already have Cf covered defensively by Nieuwenhuiss and Den Dekker that’s not the problem……. we need Offense and speed. Bourn can give you speed and good Defense but at what price?
It’s covered defensively but there is no stability and consistency in that platoon.
And thats what a guy like Duda needs next to him.
saw kirk struggle in CF last year defensively…and playing with Duda in LF and ____ (<<—who knows who will be in RF ) makes the job of the CF that much more important.
Having Duda in LF, Bourn in CF makes it possible to go with the best possible solution in RF
Well not disagreeing with you on the sentiment….
The determination that Bourne isn’t worth giving up our 1st rounder is kind of sorta dependent on these guys making a good pick and actually signing him isn’t it?
Yes with the 11th pick you should be able to get a pretty damn good player…4 years from now!
But considering the guys this FO goes after it’s not a slam dunk we will even get a player…
We took Plawlecki and still had to trade a Cy Young Pitcher to get a catcher…
We took Cheech and with a show of hands how many think he is actually going to be our SS?
So while I agree with your premise on Bourn and the pick potential It’s not so crazy to think what we get with that pick isn’t worth solving at least the CF position and Leadoff spot that helps Tejada get out of leading off and Duda from having to cover Left-Center (so he can cheat the line more where his speed is a liability) and also help the RFer at the same time.
At least then you only have to get one more OF next year to get rid of one platoon…
But I do happen to agree that with the right FO that pick COULD be worth more than Bourn might be. But the timing is better with the immediate help IMO…
I’d have to look at what could be available in that draft slot to make an informed decision but I will say that when looking at his batting splits there’s not much of a difference and his 1-0 & 2-0 counts are Impressive.
He’s a leadoff hiter and we need one….
He is a good CF and we need one….
I’m sure there is a better player than him in this upcoming draft there almost always is…
I just have no faith that this FO would pick him even if he had a SURE THING HALL OF FAMER birthmark running accross his face!
So I get the point about what that pick could get us just trust the FO to get it…
And if they are going to take yet another kid who can’t get past A Ball I just as soon get a guy I KNOW can fill a need on the team that makes next year easier because then we only need to find ONE power hitting RFer to fix the OF.
when Mets scouting director Tommy Tanous described him as an “offensive shortstop” who “doesn’t give away much defensively,” which jives with most reports of Cecchini’s abilities.
thats like calling Daniel Murphy a defensive 2B who doesnt give much up at the plate
Big potential difference in #11 and #75.
Yes big difference between Cecchini and Reynolds. I’d be more concerned if anyone but Depo was in charge.
I can’t change who is in charge Maniac so I see no reason to whine constantly about it, but that aside the principle of signing Bourn to 2 years and giving up the #11 prospect in doing so when he will not make that much of an impact in at least the 2013 season isn’t sound IMO.
“I can’t change who is in charge Maniac so I see no reason to whine constantly about it,”
awesome, we agree DePo sucks, we just disagree on how we handle it
“so I see no reason to whine constantly about it”
This is the problem here….You think we are whining about them being here…
When most of the bitching is directed at those who want to PAT THEM ON THE BACK and claim what a GREAT JOB they are doing!
All anyone has ever done was bitch about moves being made….
Then the FIRM went all out to defend those moves and write pieces to make the moves sound like great things…
How did that work out in the end with Pagan?
So stop trying to make this as we are bitching about the organization as we did not bring them into it others did by making excuses and constantly defending this FO and when the FACT didn’t support the argument they would run to the “WELL BETTER THAN OMAR’S WAY” bull that started all the comparisons of Sandy vs Omar you all say you hate but start whenever you run out of excuses and explanations for the mistakes this FO has made!
Good points, Metsie. If Alderson were GM instead of Omar during the same years, would we ever have gotten Delgado, Santana and Piazza? Of all the prospects Omar gave up for those 3, who would we like to have back?
A prospect is still a prospect, until proven otherwise.
Nope because Sandy prefers kids incomming never outgoing.
Many here try and say no one wants our kids in trade….
Is that because no one wants them or because one kid by himself is not enough to get the player?
This is why Wheeler, Harvey and Niese are always the centerpiece in any deal for a player around here…
They and Sandy want every deal to be like the Beltran for Wheeler deal.
But the best deals and the best players don’t go that way…
Delgado Santana and Piazza are prime examples that show Multiple prospects are traded for great talent and none of them have to actually be any good.
You can rank them based on Cieling all you want but truth is there are no cielings except in domed stadiums of the places this kids perform.
And just because he MIGHT is not proof he will….
Every scout says this kid could be the next _______
One out of 10000 actually ever meets that ceiling!
If we’re gonna give up a draft pick would’ve like to sign swisher(switch hitter,some pop,played in NY) and tried to trade for span or revere OF wouldn’t be so bad.
You a bit late I think Swisher is already off the market…
And Yes Task Phillips credited Omar with coming up with the package and the selling of it that got Piazza….
Omar got Piazza?
If the Mets were a legit contender, he´d be worth a spot based on his plus defense and solid OB skills.
At this stage of their team rebuilding, Bourn isn´t worth giving away a mid 1st round lottery ticket and mega contract.
I also don´t get how anyone would realistically want to give him Upton, let alone Reyes money.
A 4-year, 50 million $ sort of contract looks about right for Bourn. And the Mets certainly aren´t a fit in that regard.
I agree. If the Mets were still 140M spenders and Reyes and Beltran were still around it would be a no-brainer. However, that is not where the team is now.
And never will be as long as we keep purging talent rather than adding talent.
I can agree, that eventually they have to keep their better players. Hopefully that has already began with the re-signing of Wright and the Niese extensions.
Yes, 8 year deal on Wright was definitely a sign of great things to come.
Didn’t say it was a sign of great things, said it was a sign of
“and never will be as long as we keep purging talent rather than adding talent.”
It’s getting hard to discuss things with you Maniac. You are actually capable of a great, intelligent discussion, but everything seems to be rhetoric and talking points now. Seems too political.
I Like Ike
As do I, both of them.
For the record, I also like Mike.
should have kept Reyes..where contracts have gone he is a bargain
I kind of understand why some people want him, I don’t know if those reasons are enough to pay him what he wants, but here are a few of the reasons in FAVOR of wanting this guy:
CF – We are desperate in the OF as it stands. Our projected OF has a Turtle in lF and a myriad of .220 hitters and high K batters in RF in a platoon. What doesn’t play RF will wind up playing CF at this point. The benefit here is with a TRUE CF who has speed to get to the ball and cover lots of ground, he will make up for the speed of Duda in LF and will help bring some consistency to the OF that won’t be there with the conga line of RFers we will be playing.
Speed – The one piece the Lineup is missing is speed at the top of the order. Tejada is a fast runner but not a base stealing threat and a not a true leadoff hitter in any way shape or form.
Leadoff – Add the speed to his OB at the top of the order and you have a good dynamic working for the lineup. Thats one more runner to distract the pitcher for the 2,3 and 4 hitters in the lineup.
HOPE – Certainly not a good reason to like anyone but it does seem to be what most people around here favor at a premium in moves made. By signing him it would suggest that the team is actually willing to spend money to get what it needs and that maybe we have turned a corner from the Pirate/No-Moneyballs methodology we have been operating under to the more reasonable spend when required on players who actually fill an immediate need.
My feeling is if this guy is an answer it’s only because letting Reyes go created a question we shouldn’t have to answer right now. For the Money I would much rather have paid Reyes to do all those things Bourne could add to this team with the exception of the OF which is also a problem created by past moves that CREATED holes we couldn’t fill from within.
In the end, giving Bourne what he wants is nothing more than an attempt to fix past mistakes made and if they were not made we wouldn’t need him right now!
The guy I’d target for leadoff/CF is Bonifacio. Just as fast as Bourn, younger, cheaper, SHer.
.
I was hoping he’d be part of the Dickey deal with the Jays , but it’s not too late.
All good points. But is he available?
I don’t know, but I doubt he’s untouchable. I’d offer a combo of prospects like Kirk, Den Dekker,Flores,Mejia, and let them choose 3 of them.
Never hurts to ask.
Lol how is his speed, “already in decline”? He played 155 games and stole 42 bases.
If he’d sign for a 1 year deal, the Mets need to look at him. His defense in center field would really help the young pitchers and while his OBP skills are, “nothing to rave about,” they’d still be the best in our outfield. Plus we’d finally get to move Tejada out of the leadoff spot.
On a one year deal, we’d forfeit a top pick in a weak draft. Fine. We’d hope that a motivated Bourne has a strong year and try to move him at the deadline for a young, right-handed bat ready to make a difference in ’14. If we hold on to him through the deadline, we’d tender him a contract at the end of the year. He and Boras will decline again and then we let him sign somewhere else.
So we turn a weak draft spot into a comp pick in a much stronger draft. Combine that with one year of defense for the pitchers, a sign to the “miserable for the sake of being miserable” Mets fans that FO is willing to spend money again, and a chance to move him for a long-term piece and Sandy definitely needs to consider.
You’re dreaming if you think Alderson will give up the 1st round pick. That’s not his MO.
If Bourn can be had on a 4-year deal at 10 to 11 million per year, he could be an interesting fit – even while sacrificing # 11 overall.
He’s 5 months older than Reyes, has a .346 OBP over the past 3 years ( while Reyes has a .350 OBP over that span). Reyes has more pop but Bourn plays stellar defense whereas Reyes is fringe average at SS.
Pretty sure someone will offer Bourn 5 years, 70 million $, in which case the Mets better decline.
2 things are not happening, Alderson is not giving up the 1st round pick, even if Bourn agreed to a 4 year $42 million contract. Alderson will ask for a sign and trade where he gives up the minimum.
As far as Bourn getting 5 years, 70 million, 2 words, no chance! No team wants to give up the 1st rounder to sign him and the teams that needed CF’s all got one, (Pagan, Victorino, Revere, Span, Upton etc.) So with less demand there is pretty much not pressure on any one team to cave to Bourn’s demands. in order to land a market or above market deal the free agent has to sign before or right after new years, a this point it’s too late. Bourn’s only real option is to sign a year deal with the Braves and test free agency again next year. At this point he has no shot at getting the contract that he initially wanted.
Cant do an immediate sign and trade in baseball…this isnt the NBA. That is against the collective bargaining agreement. FAs signed by another team must remain with that team until midway through the year (June 15th if I recall).
don’t care for Bourne. not if it will keep us from signing somebody good next year, or losing apotential gem of a first rounder. He just ain;t that good.
For those of you waiting for the 2014 spending spree and plan, take your pick:
Left Fielders
Jason Bay (35)
Endy Chavez (36)
Matt Diaz (36)
Raul Ibanez (42)
Reed Johnson (37)
Austin Kearns (34)
Nate McLouth (32)
Mike Morse (32)
David Murphy (32)
Xavier Nady (35)
Laynce Nix (33)
Martin Prado (30)
Ryan Raburn (33)
Center Fielders
Alfredo Amezaga (36)
Rick Ankiel (34)
Rajai Davis (33)
Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
Carlos Gomez (28)
Curtis Granderson (33)
Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
Andres Torres (36)
Chris Young (30)
Right Fielders
Carlos Beltran (37)
Endy Chavez (36)
Shin-Soo Choo (31)
Nelson Cruz (33)
Chris Denorfia (33)
Matt Diaz (36)
Jeff Francoeur (30)
Corey Hart (32)
Xavier Nady (35)
Hunter Pence (31)
Ichiro Suzuki (40)
Take your pick…
Ok I will take Gomez and Pence. That was easy.
What are you offering? You have some numbers? Because looking at that list I’d say those two are in the top 3 or 4 in the free agent OF market. Lots of competition. That’s why it would have been great to solidify one outfield spot this offseason for our championship run in 2014. There’s nothing in the cupboard in Buffalo or Bingo.
They will pick names but when they hear the price back down from wanting them again and then say punt on 2014 so we can compete in 2015….
Binge, Purge, Rinse, Repeat.
But why would Gomez and/or Pence come here ?
Both will be entering age 30
Gomez doesnt have an OBP to Sandy’s liking…neither does Pence…and both can find much better places to hit, in much better clubs, for more money
You have to have a club that a player wants to go to as well…the only time you dont is when a player looks at you as the last resort to the mexican league
think…when was the last time a player came here that had another option on a better club?
dont worry…I’ll wait…
how come you don’t bring this up every time a player signs with another team, and people start screaming about how come Sandy let him go?
because most of the other teams are making moves every year to improve their club….
Not the point.
you said “You have to have a club that a player wants to go to as well…the only time you dont is when a player looks at you as the last resort to the mexican league
think…when was the last time a player came here that had another option on a better club?”
Now, do you deny that every time a player signs with another team, posters rant and rave about how awful Sandy is, since he did not get player X, Y or Z? So how come you don’t rush to his defense, since it is a 2 way street?
Because….
1 – Sandy chooses to shop only in the Mexican league…the other teams don’t limit themselves to just that
2 – when another team signs a guy from the Mexican League they are for depth and not immediatly penciled in to start!
3 – When someone else signs a Mexican League player before we do they probably got the best of the bunch leaving us with worse crap than we could have had if we didn’t sit at our desk writing jokes abut the internet and went out there and looked for players who could actually help and sign them.
and here is 2015′s free-agent class
position players
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1032868-mlb-free-agency-looking-ahead-at-the-next-3-free-agent-classes/page/6
pitchers
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1032868-mlb-free-agency-looking-ahead-at-the-next-3-free-agent-classes/page/7
( please note, the article was written 1 year ago, the list actually got smaller since then )
Joe D – I’ve been putting this list out there for months …not one member of the FIRM has responded to me with a selection of their choosing.
Honestly, the best options were in this free agent and trade class.
We had a young developing outfielder in BJ Upton that would have solidified one spot through 2017. Denard Span was another good possibility both defensively 2.8 WAR and offensively 2.4 WAR.
I’m still not sure what everyone thinks we’re signing after Johan is off the books?
I think many are mesmerized by the “plan” or the “mystique” of Alderson. That’s cool, but in the end you still need to spend big for quality either in players or money.
Otherwise you still languish in the bottom of the division no matter how good your prospects are.
Exactly !!!!
So trading some of those young prospects to a team that is shedding payroll, which only happens every year, is off the table? Last I looked the Jays have built their team largely by trades, established players for prospects. Why are the Mets precluded from following this strategy when they have the resources to do it?
Organizational philosophy precludes them from doing so. It’s simply not in their DNA.
Maybe, but there’s no evidence to back that up.
The Mets have been following the exact opposite strategy since Alderson took over for the reasons we all know so it’s not like they don’t understand the process. Nobody has yet convinced me that Alderson is a complete bumbling idiot who doesn’t realize what needs to be done to make the Mets more competitive and the options that will be open to him in the not too distant future.
Really?
Name the last time Sandy made a trade where he sent off young prospects to a team that is shedding payroll…
dont worry…we’ll wait…
Exactly how many times does the current Mets situation have to be explained to you before it sinks in? Alderson was brought here to cut payroll not expand it. Is that really all that hard to understand? How was he supposed to make all these dazzling free agent moves and re-sign our own top players to big contracts when he had less money year after year?
Alderson has been trying to rebuild the core of the team with cheap, young talent while at the same time dumping players he couldn’t afford and not participating in FA chases for players he couldn’t afford. Thats the job he was hired to do. If you don’t like it then be angry with the Wilpons or Madoff or the people who put the team in this situation. What’s the point of being upset with the guy who was hired to do exactly what he is doing?
Well Boomer your the one who suggested making a trade for him was NOT off the table….
Which is it?
Sandy values kids much more than any other GM does…..
Only exception maybe Beane who got it from him….
Why is every deal we make involve Harvey and Wheeler?
Because they know Sandy’s answer if they ask for two or three kids like everyone else is willing to offer to get good players.
Sandy thinks every trade should be like Beltran…I send you a MLB All Star you send me ONE KID!
And thats why he hasn’t made any deals with the other TOUCHABLE kids we have…
Because he can’t bring himself to ship more than one kid away to get the player!
So the same guy that says THIS “So trading some of those young prospects to a team that is shedding payroll, which only happens every year, is off the table?”
then says THIS –> “Alderson was brought here to cut payroll not expand it.
How can Alderson keep payroll the same or lower it AND keep the option of trading prospects for an established player who is making money on a team shedding payroll?
Knowing you need to stop smoking doesn’t mean you WILL stop smoking…
Knowing what needs to be done is not worth knowing if you refuse to actually do it!
Sometimes the heart doesn’t listen to the head and just bumbles on it’s merry way!
well u are assuming a few things…
1 – the player u want does not have a NTC
2 – that our prospects are actually what the other team wants at that time
3 – that the available player matches our need at that time
No need to assume anything with that free-agent list though….
“there are known knowns and known unknowns”
- Richard Cheney
Man this commenting format is for the birds. Why is it you get limited to which comments you can reply to?
In any case, JDD, there is absolutely nothing inconsistent to what I said and I think you know that. You strike me as angry but not dumb.
Different times call for different strategies. You know full well that the Mets have been in emergency slash the payroll mode for the last couple years. Thats why Alderson was brought in and thats exactly what he is doing. He’s been trying to build a core of young talent while jettisoning contracts the team can’t afford.
But this is a short term strategy for a short term problem. The hope is that the bleeding stops sometime this season and next year the team can start adding MLB talent to the young core. This has been the subject of article after article after article about the Mets for the last couple years. Its not exactly a secret.
If you want to continue to make posts that posit Alderson is just a dunce that knows less about the game and the issues with his team than the average 5th grader go ahead. But its not real convincing to anyone outside the Core.
Hi Boomer,
Know we disagree about Sandy’s role with the Mets but putting that aside, I don’t see how their financial problems are behind them, at least enough to where they can start re-investing more into player personnel in lieu of having to start paying back their refinanced loans and so much more in projected losses of revenue.
And let us suppose they are – we must keep in mind what finally got them into that position – major cut backs in all areas that have to remain at that level in order for them to be in a better financial to pay off their debts. With the payroll expected to drop by $20 million or so during 2014 and 2015 it is also projected to go back up to almost where it is now in 2016. That means only two year commitments to any outside players for if they spent that $20 million on any combination of players long-term, it means more than a $100 million payroll come the 2016 season.
They have to get the players first before they can get the fans back. It’s not the other way around. Also, the trap the Mets fell into was having to charge way more for tickets and concessions for each individual to make up for the 10,000 seat capacity loss moving from Shea and that has just out priced too many as well.
Since baseball teams are now run like any other business, we have to look at it from the corporate angle, not just that of the quality of the team.
Joe, Challenge Accepted (with some rough estimates).
Chavez (bench) (1/1)
Prado (utility) (2/20.5)
Ellsbury (5/80)*
Gomez (3/30)
Gwynn (bench) (1/1.75)
Choo (3/42)
Pence (4/78)
Ichiro (2/14)
*Depends on what he does this season. If hurt, less years and $$$. I don’t go no more than 3 years.
I don’t see Pence getting even near that. I would think 4/60 tops.
I would be all over Gomez at that price.
I think Gomez is a perfect fit, been saying it for weeks.
Either that or the Jason Bay Special (4/66).
Hi Joe D.,
Instead of free agency, any idea which outfielders will be entering their sixth season in which their teams might be looking to be trade them away rather than lose them? Know that involves the trading of prospects, cash and an agreed upon contract extension which probably then leaves us out.
The Bourn deal would make sense if they can sign him and then at the deadline or next offseason deal him for more than his pick was worth.
You still want more picks?
Please know this.
Of all the picks from number one all the way to Nimmo, he remains the only player who has yet to move past Low-A, with many of the other picks already in AA and two are even in AAA.
Cecchini never got past rookie league even though he signed a day later and started playing immediately. While other high schoolers taken in that round zoomed past him and through three levels.
Why do you still want more picks rather than more proven quality players?
How long do you want this rebuild to last?
FOREVER!
Or at least as long as the Oakland and Pirate rebuild has been going on…
One key change under the current FO has been a massive slowdown of advancing young players. The key is to prepare players as much as possible for the majors, so they can help instantly instead of risking severly hurting their development.
We’ll never know the answer – but would Pelfrey, Kunz, Mejia ( though there’s still hope), C. Gomez, Ike Davis or FMart been better off and better prepared for the majors with more training in the minors vs. being rushed. Heck, what business had Ruben Tejada being in the majors in 2010 ?
While Omar & Co did an underrated job bringing in young talent to the organization, the development pace was way too fast. Players should determine the pace of their ascent by the progress in their game and not based on need. Jon Niese probably is the best player drafted & developed during the Minaya era – and he was a rare case of a pitcher that was given ample time in the minors.
As for the longterm outfield, trades will be a much likelier and more effective way than handing out Shane Victorino type contracts to marginal players.
its easy to slow down talent when your talent sucks
I can always rely upon you for a substantive reply. My problem is not slow development for their top selections, it’s the lack of any development. The players mentioned are not pushing the envelope so logically no advancement. I get that. My problem is that they may have erred when you compare the development of those in the same draft class and round. That’s what my real concern is. As for Minaya, historic injuries advanced the timetables for many players especially Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada, but their legitimate talent kept them in the majors rather than going back to the minors. Within two weeks on the 2011 season it was Alderson who cut Emaus and promoted Tejada and then tabbed him as Reyes’ replacement. As for Kunz, nobody could have saved him, it was a bad pick and one that was forced because Fred had Omar following slot guidelines to a tee.
As for Victorino, I’m glad you brought him up. I wrote a piece about that contract that will post mid week,
Hey, are you getting my emails?
To add to what you said….
Injuries also hurt the valueand development of many players we had in the Minors that were highly rated…
F-Mart was always rated high on BA’s list but kept getting hurt.
Kirk cost himself some development as did Haven who just a year or two ago was going to be our 2B!
Where would Murphy be right now if not for two Knee Injuries, we think more time in the Minors would have helped him?
And Ike looked like a more than ready for prime time MLB player until he had one freak injury, missed almost a year and struggled coming back yet STILL hit 32 HRs…
So all this talk about what these guys might do if they stayed in the Minors is just wishful thinking and excuse making for why guys that were picked should stay down longer…
When your ready your ready as there is nothing else the Minors can teach you that being in the MLB can’t!
Nimmo ( and Michael Fulmer) also are almost among the youngest 1st rounders from the June 2011 draft class. While college picks would be expected to advance more quickly ( Cory Mazzoni has reached Double A with several others like Verrett, Pill, Leathersich and Muno finishing the year in St.Lucie) , HS picks would figure to spend the 2012 season either in Short Season Ball ( like Bubba Starling, Taylor Guerrieri who is a highly touted Rays pick or Nimmo) or in Low A ball ( like Archie Bradley, Fulmer and a buch of others).
The only two HS picks from the June 2011 draft that have reached higher levels are RH Dylan Bundy – arguably the best P prospect in Baseball – and RH Jose Fernandez who is at least 9 months older than Nimmo & Fulmer, maybe more due to his Cuban origins.
When you pick HS prospects in the draft – which the previous administration rarely did – you have to be prepared to wait 4 years or so on their major league arrival. Jon Niese was picked in 2005 and established himself in the majors in 2010 after a couple of cups of coffee earlier. Heck even David Wright who was quite advanced took three full years to reach the majors – which is about the best case scenario you get with a HS pick.
Now, time will tell whether Cecchini, Nimmo or Fulmer will end up being any good. However, all three are still teenagers and they’ll all be among the youngest players in their league in 2013 in spite of their non accelerated progression.
P.S. Haven’t received any mails from you, Joe D. over the past few days…
‘While Omar & Co did an underrated job bringing in young talent to the organization, the development pace was way too fast. ‘
This.
The most glaring example of that IMO was Mejia. I still cannot believe that Omar allowed Jerry to start him in the BP that season. Hopefully the mishandling is just a setback for him.
Now factor in your beliefs on starting players FA clock and signing players to a contract that will take them far PAST thier prime and tell me how well that philosophy of slowing down development so a guy like Ike would not be in the MLB till age 25 works out for you in the end?
A Philosophy on dvelopment must fit nicely with your philosophy of who to sign and how OLD you are willing to make your MLB team….
Otherwise all your doing is wasting 6 years of development on a guy you will refuse to sign after he hits FA because now he is too old to take a risk on playing cause he is close to being PAST his prime!
Here is something lost on most who think rushing kids is bad…..
The YOUNGER a player gets to the MLB they have found the LONGER their career and High Performance lasts….
The Younger a kid breaks into the MLB the greater the chance they will have a long career that lasts well into thier 30′s.
And the later they get to the big show the greater the chance they will play for a few years and then be out of baseball.
Wasn’t he injured for part of the season ? I think I remember something about that
“Of all the picks from number one all the way to Nimmo, he remains the only player who has yet to move past Low-A, with many of the other picks already in AA and two are even in AAA.”
Ya, no that isn’t true. Bubba Starling has yet to get past Rookie ball.
Dylan Bundy signed a major league deal (which I never liked) so he was on the 40 man from day 1.
Archie Bradley is in low A. Same league as Fransisco Lindor, in fact.
Javier Baez and Corey Spangenberg are both still in A Ball. They might…might…start the season in AA.
Everyone else was a college player, so they had a head start. And even then, Taylor Jungmann yet to make AA ball.
Besides, so what? I’d rather develop right than develop fast.
Of course, you should have realized you can’t trade for picks (other than that new comp round) and TRS was in fact saying to trade Bourn for more than the pick was worth (ie more highly rated prospects).
I missed this earlier but that’s exactly what I mean, trading him for either prospects or for another long term solution.
I’m shocked more people do not want him, always hear complaining about no money or not getting a free agent. I agree they need power in the outfield not bourn, although on a 1 or two year deal he is tempting, great defensively and woukd hit lead off, but cost a first round draft pick, I’d say wait
The Braves signed him needing a leadoff hitter. They got that and more and without him they would not have gotten to the playoff game. On base in the leadoff spot and a really good defensove centerfielder with some pop in the bat is what the mets need but he may be asking too much.
The logical place for him to end up is Atlanta—he likes it there, found success, and they’re the only team that won’t lose a pick when signing him. Wouldn’t surprise me if he gives them a discount on a 1-year deal so he’s more signable as a FA after the season (no draft pick forfeit). Or, they can sign him to a 2- or 3-year deal and trade him at mid-season.
But I’d still rather get Bonifacio for the Mets.
they actually do lose a pick. They won’t get the comp round pick coming to them if any other team signs him. So they aren’t short one, but they no longer have that extra one.
That’s true—they just don’t lose their own 1st-rounder.
I just thought of another question here—what happens if no one signs him by OD? Is there an “expiration date” for forfeiting the pick? How about if he only signs a Minor League deal? I have no idea about that.
there is an expiration date, but I honestly don’t know what it is. Opening day doesn’t sound right. Maybe June 1? Someplace before the draft, that is for sure!
No Bourn please ………
I’d rather have Dexter Fowler or Michael Brantley, but that’s just me.
Areed, but what woul willing to give up for each player?
Any second-tier SP from the farm.
I would have asked Toronto for Bonafacio. Cheaper than most .
I don’t like Bourn for the price Boras originally wanted because he’s extremely limited, but if he’d sign 3/45, then I’m all for it. The draft pick doesn’t matter as much as the contract does.
You may remember a few months ago, that was the exact figure I projected offering Bourn. If I’m the Mets, I’d be open to surrendering the 1st round pick. Johan Santana will be on his way out around that time anyway, and switching him up for a big time prospect from some desperate team would supplement the loss of the 1st round pick anyway. However, like I previously said, the first thing I’d do is look for other options within the trade market like I previously mentioned in Fowler or Brantley. If Colorado or Cleveland asks for too much, sign Bourn ASAP.
I’d have gone as high as 4/52-56 but it seems now he’s not even going to get that. I’ve heard that the Rockies aren’t interested in trading Fowler, so if it requires an overpay of prospects, I’d rather just spend the money and one pick. I’m open to Brantley.
I have not really been high on Bourn, but I am starting to talk myself into the idea (and that often leads to bad outcomes!) Just because having a top defensive CF playing every day makes it so much easier to finagle the corners with the other guys we have available (and way easier to envision the next step by next year to make it actually a strength!)
Van, I think Bourn came with a negative stigma because it was generally assumed talks STARTED at 6/100 and he’s very clearly not worth it. But he’s a solid player and if you could cut that contract in half, you might have something. He’s laughable at 6/100 but doable at 3/45.
Craig – At some point you need to take a risk. I am not for getting rid of draft picks year after year or for over the hill players… but Bourn for say 3 years would make the Mets OF significantly better. If you’re building a team for pitching, defense, speed then Bourn has 2 and makes pitching better and also makes the corner OF defenders less of a liability.
I don’t LOVE him but he’s better than Kirk and I don’t see another CF coming to NY in the next 1-3 years…
If he needs a monster contract then no, let him go. But I can’t say I won’t upgrade the team under any circumstances because of a draft pick
Well the Mets would have to give up their first round pick in order to sign Bourn…so let’s look at it this way: let’s say Bourn wasn’t a free agent, and was locked up for the next 3 years at $15m per year. The Braves come around and say to the Mets that all they have to do is give up Gavin Cecchini (2012 first round pick) to get Bourn straight up – then all the Mets have to do is cover three years at about $15m for one of the top players at their position. Should they do it? The answer is: yes, they should probably do it.
Who will get the Mets back to the playoffs faster: a 1st round pick that we nothing about and could be like throwing money into a fire if he doesn’t pan out, or an established MLB player that plays a premium position?
I’m not saying I think the Mets should absolutely do it…but I can dig it if they do.
If it was that easy for our esteemed font office we would still have Reyes.
No,Reyes was clearly a Madoff/money shortage issue. If DW was a FA last year he would be playing for someone else too. They are in much better financial position this year without the $1 billion lawsuit and tapped out credit lines hanging over their heads.
THIS!
I think the issue here is some are so enamour of 1st rounders that they never bother to consider what you actually can or will GET for it….
Taking Omar to task for giving up three 1st rounders when at best ONE of them might have been as good as Wagner, K-Rod or even Alou for the year we had him….
Considering how well these guys have done in the first round the past two years there is no reason to believe that Pick is worth having more than a Leadoff hitter who helps you NOW, Will draw some fans out to the park (paying some bills). and the only thing it really cost you is the chance to look forward to praying a good player falls to you that deserves to be in the top 10 and the FO not blowing the pick.
In the end a 1st round pick is only as good as your ability to evaluate and pick a player better than anyone else and even then you still have to hope all the teams ahead of you are dumber at picking players than you are…
Cause if they are the same or better your still not going to be able to get the best player he will be gone.
1st Overall picks are the truly Valuable, second are the next 4 overall…
Cause at least then even if there are 20 teams who are smarter than picking than you are you still get first shot at getting who you want.
You raise a good point, however:
1) Bourne is really “established”. He’s 30. Not great news for a guy whose game is speed.
2) If that free agent busts (not that we have any experience with that) it does way more damage to the team than a draft pick busting.
That said, if he were into a 3 year deal or such, I’d strongly consider it. We could probably either trade him for decent prospects or let him go and get the pick back anyway.
However I don’t think Bourn is interested in signing a minor league deal so the Mets may be out of luck on this one
I disagree with you guys. This guy is exactly the piece the Mets need to become more productive both offensively and defensively the next few years. This guy is a primo defensive CF- a fabulous 24DRS and 22.5 uzr/150 in 2012. and obviously serve as a much needed top of the order run manufacturer and SB threat which is needed when you play half of your games at Citifield. The Mets never went through such a pathetic offensive stretch at Citifield even with larger OF dimensions when Jose was around with the Reyes runs. I don’t buy him for 6 years and 100MM which is nonsense but I do buy this guy for 3 years and 36MM especially if John Ricco can defer part of his 2013 salary into the future.
Who are you disagreeing with? That seems to be the consensus. Good points.
Vince Coleman deja vu. No. Take the draft pick. Log sub .500 ball in ’13…take another draft pick…+ the pitching cluster coming up…be a dynasty. Who re we…the Yankees?
Coleman wasn’t a tenth the defender Bourn is. Not a legitimate comparison. Draft pick after draft pick won’t do anything to help the club. When you’ve sufficiently stocked the farm, which generally seems to be the consensus with the pitching, you have to go ahead and buy the pieces you’re lacking. Who’s going to provide the offense over the next 2-3 years while the Mets (hopefully) have the lights out pitching?
I lobbed Vince Coleman in because this reminds me of the days we Mets fans screamed to be ‘relevant’ NOW and the F/O inked gnarly / nasty / over-the-hill high-priced retreads to placate us and we were all doomed.
Why sign Bourn or anybody like him or trade for Upton NOW when it’s not going to make a difference? Why not be very aggressive AND analytical and smart, NEXT offseason when more big contracts role off, when the baby hurlers are more advanced, when we know better what we have with some of them, when we may know more about Kirk, Duda, Flores, Puello, Lagares, Havens, Nimmo, Checchini, Evans, Plawecki, Reynolds, et al and make timely decisions that would make a differecne in the F/A market and / or via trades.
How often have we seen teams pick guys in the slots we forfeited that became stars? Enough of that circus. Let’s be patient for 1 more year when we have ideal prospect ammo and $$$$-moola to deal.
CHI, WHAT A REFRESHING CALL FOR PATIENCE; HOWEVER, I WOULD CAUTION AGAINST PASSING ON A POTENTIAL DIFERENCE MAKER FOR THE FUTURE, WHO HAS NO FORSEEABLE COMPLIMENT IN YOUR CURRENT INVENTORY SUCH AS UPTON, WHO PERSONALLY IMPRESSED ME BACK IN ’09 WHEN I WAS SEATED COMFORTABLY IN THE 2nd ROW OF THE PEPSI PORCH IN A GAME Vs AZ WHEN SUDDENLY I FIND MYSELF ON THE TARGETED END OF WHAT APPEARED TO BE A PATRIOT MISSLE HOMING STRAIGHT @ ME; LUCKILY THWARTED IN A HUGE CLANG OFF THE WROUGHT IRON PROTECTION THIS SHOT WAS ALL THE MORE IMPRESSIVE COMUING AS AN OPPO-TACO SHOT OFF THE BAT OF A THEN SUPPOSEDLY SLUMPING JUSTIN UPTON SURELY CONSIDERING THE VENUE, SUCH AN OPPOSITE FIELD JUGGERNAUT WAS QUITE MEMORABLE, AS LONG AS ALDERSON CAN MANAGE TO OPROTECT BOTH WHEELER & d’ARNOUD, I FOR ONE WOULD CHOOSE TO CHANCE AN INCREAS TOE MY FUTURE OUTLOOK BY ADDING THIS STILL “YOUNG” VETERAN ESPECIALLY AS I WOULD ANTICIPATE HIS FERVENT DESIRE TO SUCCEED TO BE INFLAMED BY HIS LONG ESTABLISHED BFF, WRIGHT; ALL WHILE STOKING THE NATURAL SIBLING RIVALRY THAT HAVING AN OLDER BRO. CONTRIBUTING TO THE RESULTS OF A DIVISIONAL HATED RIVAL (ATLANTA).
I WIOULD CAUTION THAT EVEN ADDING UPTON LIKELY HAS ONLY A SLIGHT RIPPLE EFFECT ON THE TEAM’S OUTCOME AS THIS SEASON’S THE IMPACT WOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN AS A MEMBER OF THE FUTURE CURRENTLY OCCUPYING OUR FANTASIES.
WHILE I CERTAINLY WOULD NOT CLASSIFY UPTON AS A KEY CORNERSTONE PLAYER TO BUILDING AN ULTIMATE WINNER, I’D CERTAINLY STRESS THE MORE STABLE OF THESE STRUCTURES TEND TO BE MORE THAN SINGULARLY DIMENSIONAL REQUIRING MORE THAN 1 CORNER WITH STRENGTH. I CERTAINLY DOUBT CASHEN CONSIDERED THE UNLIKELYHOD OF KEITH’S SINGLEHANDEDLY ALTERING THE FRANCHISE’S IMMEDIATE FUTURE; BUT CERTAINLY IN THE CONTEXT OF KNOWING WHO WAS TO COME, SAW FIT TO ADD SUCH AN ULTIMATE “KEY” INGREDIENT WHEN IT WAS WITHIN REACH RATHER THAN ‘HOPE’ TO HAVE A GENERIC REPLACEMENT AVAILABLE WHEN ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED.
128 comments(129 including mine) 171 hits 96 runs scored 274 avg 391 obp and 42 SB’s 624 ab’s and plays a great defensive CF If that’s declining I will gladly take it! 155 so’s means
nobody’s perfect! With our talented young starting pitching and having bad defense in LF & RF
a great defensive CF is just what we need even if we lose a first round draft choice! We don’t
know if the 11th pick in the 2013 draft is going to pan out or not and even if he does it will take years to find out? In the meantime we would have had Bourne in CF all that time(I’m thinking
three or four year contract) or would you rather have him resign with the Braves and be a pain
in our ass! He is a difference maker at the top of the order who will put a lot of pressure on the opposing pitcher with his speed and will be the spark plug we need! There is nobodyelse on the mets who can lead off and create havoc on the base paths like he will!! If the mets
sign Bourne maybe they will feel there a lot closer to being a contender and SA will convince the Wilpons to let him trade for Upton or sign Hairston too!! In any case we would be a better
team and with two wild cards anything can happen!!
Sounds to me that Boras is using Heyman to get other offers for him.
Exactly,
We’re not in on Bourne, not seriously anyway. Giving up what promises to be a strong #11 pick next draft would go against just about everything we’ve seen from this front office to this point.
Wouldn’t be shadiest thing done by a agent or team exec.
I think I said this the other day and its most likely up there in the abyss, the only way this works is if it is for cheep and they can get him and flip him later if needed while netting a prospect better than their draft pick. Before the loser brigade starts, I said if they need to trade him. If he is doing well and we are in it or Kirk and company still aren’t solutions then keep him, but they for sure cant include a no trade clause or backload the contact.
Well, after thinking long & hard about it, there certainly is a case to be made for Bourn – if the market comes to the Mets. Say, Bourn on a 3-year, 37.5 million $ contract or a 4-year, 45 million $ contract.
Michael Bourn, born Dec. 28th 1982 2010 – 2012:
1.815 AB, .279 BA, .346 OBP, .376 SLG, combined “WAR” of 14.3, plus plus defensive CF
Angel Pagan, born July 21 1982, 2010 – 2012:
1.662 AB, .281 BA, .334 OBP, .415 SLG, combined “WAR” of 10.1, average defensive CF
received a 4-year, 40 million $ contract as a free agent, average annual value of 10 million $ per year
Jose Reyes, born June 11, 1983, 2010 – 2012
1.747 AB, .301 BA, .350 OBP, .450 SLG, combined “WAR” of 8.3, average defensive SS
received a 6-year, 106 million $ contract as a free agent, average annual value of 16 million $
If you compare the three players, Bourn is by far the best defender of the three. Reyes has more pop than any of them. Bourn has an OBP barely below Reyes but a bit ahead of Pagan who makes up with slightly higher slugging.
Overall, Bourn is probably worth a bit more than Pagan but a bit less than Reyes – in spite of what WAR says, a number that generally overrates defense, IMHO.
Splitting the difference, the “mid-point” contract between Pagan & Reyes is a 5-year, 73 million $ contract with an average annual value of 14.6 million $. That would probably be “market” value for Bourn and probably about what Boras is looking for (reported at least 5 years, 75 million $).
Now, in the Mets situation and where their team is right now, it´d be tough both paying market value AND forfeiting an early draft choice. However, if the market comes to them at the suggested 4-year, 45.0 million $ or 3-years, 37.5 million, it´s probably worth buying “low” in terms of market value and filling a gapping hole.
Because even if you trade for, say Dexter Fowler a year from now, odds are, the package of prospects you give up is probably worth more than the # 11 overall draft pick.
The Nats just gave up a top 75 overall type prospects in RH Alex Meyer for Denard Span who they control – for I believe – three more years. Bourn is a couple of years older than Span and an even slightly better defender. The # 11 June pick rarely makes a Top 75 prospect list right away. So, the Mets would sacrifice maybe a borderline top 100 prospect (like the June pick), say one of Fulmer – Cecchini – Nimmo – Tapia value wise for Bourn. If he´s signed to a below market rate contract – but for at least 3 and not more than 4 years, it´s absolutely worth it if the average annual value is significantly below “market value” too.
And Bourn would instantly be a major upgrade to the Mets OF defense – and also give them a valid leadoff hitter again. Since he just turned 30 and – unlike Reyes or Pagan btw – hasn´t battled any leg injuries so far, he´s a pretty solid bet to perform at or close to his current level over the next 3 to 4 years. Of course, unlike Reyes, there´s no natural power to really fall back on in case it doesn´t work.
Dr. D,
Excellent analysis, and this is the reason why the Mets are debating Bourn. If his price range is in the neighborhood of your figures, he is worthy of this consideration. Outside of the Ks, and virtually every player has some flaw, he is a perfect fit for the Mets. They desperately need a professional leadoff hitter with speed and major league D in CF. The fact that he hits lefty is no big deal since he will lead off 150 games regardless. He is definitely worth the #11 pick if they plan on competing before 2015, but his acquisition should require other moves this offseason. On the reluctant side, they will most likely be in the market for a FA next winter that will cost their top pick, so back to back years of forfeiting the first round pick may cause them to pause. However, if they somehow managed to sign him reasonably and acquire Upton, sign a vet SP5 and a bullpen guy like Wilson that could close, all of a sudden they start to look like a big league ball club again, and Bourn/Upton would help 2013-2015 minimal and possibly beyond. To dream the impossible dream.
So let me get this straight they passed on a power hitting switch hitter in that POS Swisher who I hate but wouldve taken him over Bourne.
Pass on BJ Upton whom has more power and much younger…and whom also the braves signed instead of Bourne who was already on the team and lost a draft pick to do so.
And even worst the reason given for not re-signing one of the best SS in Reyes was hes getting up there in age and we shouldnt spend that money for a player whom lives off his legs.
With all that said Boras is Bournes agent….the same Boras who states the Mets are thrifty aka cheap and are…same guy who said the Mets need new owners and that they are shopping in the fruits and nuts section lol…..You really think he comes down on the price for Bourne and years??? If Boras cant get his desired deal for his player he encourages them to sign a short term 1yr deal and come back to free agency the next year as he did recently with Edwin Jackson who signed a big deal this off-season although he changed agents this year Boras method worked for Jackson and it works more often than not.
Sandy wont sign anyone this is just to make fans think they are working on something Snady is nothing more than a window shopper who hoards money under his mattress and screams poor
It only makes sense if Bourn doesn´t get paid what he should be based on comparables and a “normal market for him”.
If you take defense into account, Bourn is a superior player to Swisher, at least more consistent than Upton and at a similar level overall, albeit older.
Obviously if both cost 5 years, 75 million, I´d rather have Upton who is one & a half years younger. However, if you can get Bourn for – say – 4 years, 45 million – that´s a lot less than what you´d normally have to pay a player like that, especially in today´s out-of-contol market. In that case, it makes sense to weigh the value of a 1st round pick with the value of the prospect(s) you´d have to trade to land a different outfielder and the salary that outfielder is going to make.
And if you look at Reyes, no, I wouldn´t want Bourn at 6 years, 106 million $ for sure – even if Bourn hasn´t battled as many leg issues as Reyes over the years. When Bourn´s legs go, he probably isn´t a good major leaguer anymore. When Reyes´ legs go, he could still make up for it by hitting for more power and being shifted to a corner OF spot or 3b, maybe where his cannon arm could still play. Signing Bourn now, basically would help rectify the mistake of not keeping Reyes a year ago…
Everything you said is based on the premise that the Mets would give Bourne a long term deal like Reyes or Swisher.
If that were true, someone else probably would have gotten it already. Like Swisher or BJ Upton.
I would not like giving up a 11th pick for Bourne but he would be an upgrade for the next 3 years tops for around 12M per year. I don’t think Boras would do that. It would not be a good idea either to do it for less than three years giving up such a high draft pick.
As Mitch so correctly pointed out…Would you give up Ceccini to get Bourne?
Because thats pretty much what your giving up with the 11th pick considering who is going to make the pick for us this year….
They will not sign him unless they land Upton or someone like that for right field.
I disagree. I think the Doobs put mentioned it above somewhere, but if the money is right (say 3 years, 35-40 million or even 4 years, 50 million), to sign Bourne all you are forgoing is 1 top pick (more on that below). If you are trading for Upton, you are sacrificing some top minor leaguers for roughly the same money and year commitment (3 years, 39-ish million).
Now, as to the forgoing of the pick to get Bourn, I fear that the pick is viewed in this manner. If they sign a player below slot, that adds more money to go over slot on subsequent picks. If they figured they were going to use the whole slot amount in that spot, the point is moot and in essence trading their first round pick this year for Bourn could be worth it to them.
TX, OUR TEAM IS NOW FACED WITH TWO DAUNTING ISSUES BASED UPON LOST IMPORTANT STATS FROM LAST YR. #1, THE 20Ws COMPILED BY DICKEY & #2, THE 20HRs SUPPLIED BY HAIRSTON. OF THE 2 MOST LIKELY OUFIELD UPGRADES, ONLY UPTON SUPPLIES NEEDED ANSWERS. CONTINGENT UPON RETAINING HARVEY,WHEELER, d’ARNOUD AN UPTON ACQUISITION IS SUPERIOR TO A BOURNE SELECTION BY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
Should the Mets lose a draft pick for Bourn? This is a question that the front office will have to think about.
He isn’t worth the money and pick it would take to sign him. Please pass on him.
Just about any 3 year deal makes sense because thats right around the time Nmmo should be ready (maybe with a year of overlap) and if Nimmo IS ready you can then trade Bourne at the deadline for some other kid.
Sorry, nope no way this will happen. In fact I am so sure it won’t happen that if it does Joe D will change his banner to Alderson Avenue for one day.
Joe does need to be held to that…
This is crazy and goes against everything this team is doing, not spending money and hording draft picks. Would I like Bourn on the team, you bet, but CMON this is all BS.
It is a tough call. He makes us better but not good enough to beat the Nats or Braves. So why give up the 11th pick when you can try and sign Ellsbury or Gomez next off season when they are better set up to win.
I really like Gomez, but keep in mind, there is a bird in the hand aspect. You don’t know for sure Gomez makes it to FA (odds are though he does), or how many teams will be in on him, and at what $. So sometimes, you have to take what is on the table, instead of gambling something better comes along later.
Or, if GOmez is there, get him too, and have one heck of a speedy OF! Or trade Bourn off.
Maybe they aren’t that high on this year’s draft class.
Well then pick which one you want to call a mistake….
The fact that this yearis a weak draft or last year when they refused to sign thier 2nd rounder to slot because they wanted to move the pick to this year where the draft class was deemed stronger than last year…..
Pick your poison!
I think they wanted to sign Stanky, but something went wrong. And no, it was the fact that their #2 pick wanted less than the minimum minor league salary added to his bonus. There’s some behind the scenes stuff we don’t see at work here.
Only way i want him is if they sign after draft so don’t loose pick and max contract would b 3 4 30. Maybe 3 4 36 but would feel dirty about that.
You really think Bourn is going to be a FA past May or June?
from what I hear, this years draft is not as deep so I would not mind giving it up to get a 30-year old center fielder/leadoff hitter
“this years draft is not as deep ”
Where did you hear that Dan? (Not doubting it at all mind you…)
Cause for a year now there have been many people (not saying you) here using how much STRONGER this draft would be compared to last year as the reason for punting on half our draft and not signing our 2nd rounder to straight slot offer.
Bourn could be the center fielder and lead off hitter for the next three years I guess.But without adding a right fielder with right handed pop they are still a fourth or third place team with an outside chance at a second wild card. That 11th pick in the draft can be used in a package to get Price, Upton, Stanton, and so on in the near future, near future meaning next off season. For instance they can sign Gomez or Ellsbury to play center next off season and trade for right handed power to play in right field, all next off season. I like both Ellsbury and Gomez over Bourn. And if that 11th pick could be a piece to get Stanton then I would prefer to wait.
My point is with just Bourn we are still evaluating young talent and getting them experience for a run next year. Now if you added Bourn and Upton this year then you actually have a shot this year to compete and the next two years as well. Then the only free agent signings would be for a starter and closer next year. During those three years you can attempt to restock the system after the Upton trade.I am against it with no Upton or Stanton trade now.
You can’t trade draftees for a full year after they’ve signed.
I think you can use them at PTBNLs. The Indians did thst in the Jiminez trade, I think.
Right Pomeranz was a PTBNL and was sent 1 year to the day of his original contract signing.
If that is true that is a nice observation on your part Perseus. Again that eye you stole from the Stygian witches has been put into good use. Until you said it I never considered that a possibility.
That is too funny, but I wonder if this Perseus knows who the Stygian Witches are?
Hahaha if he doesn’t then this should help. Though personally I am more fond of Ray Harryhausen’s version of the film.
http://www.traileraddict.com/clip/clash-of-the-titans/how-do-we-kill-the-kraken
You truly raise the level of discourse around here.
Keep forgetting about Dariel Alvarez.
if it is not overlong or over costly. I am ok with it don;t like him but he is better than what we got
To me it is a ploy. Mets have an offer on the table (aka trade offer) and this is being leaked is a tactic to get the other team to accept our offer. No way are do we want bourn. Not worth the money & draft pick. Sandy is too smart to take this guy.
In the end this is just another story that diverts the attention of Fans to what COULD happen instead of looking at what IS happeneing which is a big fat nothing….
Be honest with yourselves and you realize all this talk of Bourne and Upton is a futile endeavor…
Both cost things this GM does not like to spend…
Money, Kids and Draft Picks!
TO get Bourne you have to pay him and give up a kid…
To get Upton you have to give away a gaggle of Kids and still pay him 14 Mil a year…
A league source can tell me whatever it wants but in the end I know my Sandy and he wouldn’t give up any ONE of those things just for the priviledge of paying those guys.