29
2012
Thoughts On The Reliever Market, Mets Needs, Spending
An article by 
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Mets are scouring the market for bullpen help. Heyman mentions Jose Valverde, Francisco Rodriguez and Matt Capps as possible players the Mets might kick the tires on, but do we really want to go there?
It would have been nice to get a reliever like Jeremy Affeldt, who will get paid less than our own Frank Francisco next season, but it was clear he wanted stay with the World Champ Giants who signed him cheap. Good job by Brian Sabean.
The reliever I coveted most this offseason was former Royals closer Joakim Soria who is coming off Tommy John surgery that was performed back in April. The 28-year-old right-hander is a two-time All-Star and was signed by the Texas Rangers to a two year, $8 million contract with a team option for 2015. Soria is already throwing and is expected back in the bullpen by May. This young talent might end up being the free agent steal of the offseason and this was a coup for GM Jon Daniels.
There’s really not much left to choose from in the reliever market as we head into January, that much is clear. This is exactly what I knew would happen while we played the waiting game for the third offseason in a row.
Who wants to spend and overpay for any of these scrubs still looking for a job?
Not me… We don’t need another Frank Francisco disaster?
Meanwhile, on the subject of spending, Sandy Alderson said that he may not spend the $25 million or so they have in hand, potentially reducing payroll to under $90 million for the first time in 13 years.
That amount includes the money that David Wright deferred (interest free) to help the Mets sign players this offseason.
Their reasoning? Everyone one that is still available is not worth their asking price.
I asked some of our writers if they were buying that…
XtreemIcon – I feel like there will be plenty of bullpen options and some outfield depth options, so if they don’t add any of those, I’ll question it. but I think the rotation is set, because I think Gee and Mejia need this chance to step up and show what kind of pitchers they can be (figuring Niese, Johan and Harvey are locks) and Wheeler will be only three weeks away at the earliest. As far as the outfield goes, if the Mets say Ludwick wasn’t worth 7 mil a year and Cody Ross isn’t worth three years to hit in that ballpark, I agree with that. I’d prefer to see how Baxter handles a starting roll and if Kirk can make the adjustment. Both are already better defensive players than Ludwick and Ross. Players like Hairston and Austin Kearns (righty hitter that plays a good right field with solid on base skills and extra-base pop) that can platoon if the younger guys can’t handle the starting role on their own should be the target. If that goes unfulfilled, I’ll be a little disappointed.
Craig Lerner - Free agency is much like supply and demand. As players sign and availability becomes scarce at certain positions, salary demands from those players become artificially inflated. I think this is the American way. At this point I’d rather trade to fill our needs than overpay for what’s left in the free agent market. That ship has passed.
Jessica – I think free agency has gotten a little insane in recent years. If Zack Greinke had signed an extension with his former team, there’s no way he would have gotten $147 million. I’m not sure what would have happened if David Wright ever made it to free agency, but he probably could have gotten more than $138 million, because he would have been the biggest fish in a little pond. Some teams want to fill their needs by signing the big names in free agency, the Greinkes and the Josh Hamiltons. But there’s more creative ways to fill our holes. As for the Mets current situation (I’m looking at an outfield where Lucas Duda is your veteran outfielder), I believe that the players available aren’t worth what they’re going to get. But I also have faith that Sandy will find a diamond in the rough just like Omar Minaya did with Dickey.
Rob (Tie Dyed) - I dont buy anything this front office tells me. I also no longer buy any Mets merchandise.
Matt Strachman - Absolutely. There isn’t anybody of substance available, and it is about time we stop throwing money at mediocre scrubs and expecting them to bust out.
Satish – That’s the reasoning? Well, I’ll give them credit. I thought they were just going to ignore us and not even try to make up a reason. I appreciate the lies, guys. But no, honestly, really? No one out there is worth it? I guess you could make the argument that what’s left isn’t worth it now. But there were some quality players out there beforehand.
Drew Staley – I’m not buying anything from this front office anymore. Neither should the Mets buy anything from the dredge left in free agency. If they could bring back Scott Hairston, then fine. Otherwise go make a trade or go dumpster diving. Next season will be our fifth losing season in a row. Why throw anymore money into that?
Joe Spector – I do actually and here is why. Andres Torres just signed for $2 million with the Giants. ANDRES TORRES. If he’s worth $2 million what is Delmon Young worth? $10 million? I think the closer we get to the start of Spring training, the players who are still unemployed will have to either lower their asking price or risk being unemployed. In this case, the market will come to the Mets and every other team as long as owners can not throw money at marginal players like Monopoly money.
Jim Mancari – The remaining crop of free agents is definitely weak. I think I would rather see the Mets sign Scott Hairston to a one- or two-year deal rather than overpaying for the overrated Cody Ross on a three-year deal.
So there you have it. As is usually the case on MMO, it’s 50/50, but we all agree on one thing and that is that the options left are not worth overpaying. As I wrote in a post earlier in the week, that’s the cost of waiting.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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I think the mets need to add two relievers, particularly a left handed option. J.P Howell should be tops on their list in my view, for right handed options there are a few to choose from but Frasor and Capps should be highest on the list, of course I wouldn’t over pay for them. Howell is the one guy I actually think would be a big fit over the next three years.
This young talent might end up being the free agent steal of the offseason and this was a coup for GM Jon Daniels.
- Soria turns 29 in May. I don’t think I’d call him a “young talent.”
I have a question though for those wanting the Mets to go out and buy relievers.
Isn’t that what we did last year? I mean you can say what you want about how it worked out but getting a guy like Soria is not exactly a sure thing either. You’re basically paying for a roll of the dice. No?
You’re seeing more and more that teams are relying on their young talent for bullpen needs rather than piecing it together through free agency.
I think the Mets need to go and get maybe 1 arm and 1 chance like a Brian Wilson type and go from there hoping Carson, Edgin, Familia, Gorski, Hefner, McHugh, Mejia, Parnell, Ramirez and then Francisco can give them quality outings?
You cannot rebuild a bullpen through free agency year after year. It’s basically submitting to paying high for a low value commodity.
Considering that the average age of the relievers left out there is like 35, he’s young by those standards. I’m surprised you’re not a fan of Soria. I thought it was a fantastic signing and I’ve wanted him even before he got hurt. Mark my words, he’s going to the All Star Game in 2014 and 2015.
But I think everyone agrees here that we shouldn’t spend any money on a reliever at this point. Just go with the kids. Consider 2013 open tryouts for the 2014 bullpen.
I have always been very skeptical of guys who close for bad teams/low market and get shipped to large markets.
I think he’s good don’t get me wrong, but he’s also due back at the earliest in May. You gotta figure there will be some rust to shake off…So on a 2 year deal, Texas is basically banking that they will get to use Soria down the stretch.
By that time for the Mets, it could be too late.
Also keep this in mind please when thinking the Mets missed something here
_____
“He had opportunities to close, but the fact he’s willing to come and set up for Joe speaks volumes,” Daniels said. “He’s putting himself second. He wants to win. That’s big with him.”
Why did Soria opt for a setup role with Texas?
“I’ve got my house in Arizona, Spring Training is in Arizona. I’m a family guy, and my parents live close to Texas,” he said. “Obviously, we’ve got a great team over there, and I think we can win the World Series. That’s one of the main reasons I chose Texas instead of other teams.”
____
I can’t look at the health facts, the facts of where the Mets are and then the description that he was able to close elsewhere but wanted to win now and think the Mets had any chance really.
We are not a large market team anymore. So you don’t have to worry about that. Very few people go to the games. With Dickey gone there will be less press. And our 70 wins won’t be putting us on the backpage, we are becoming the Islanders of MLB, so maybe he was Soria’s perfect destination.
On to the bigger question…. If we weren’t going to spend it and as most of you say e financial situation is improved , why did we defer Wright nd Bay to future years???????? That is a oollosalmfaiure of judgement by this management team.
Good point, John.
It’s one thing stretching out contract payments but putting them off for a year does only add fuel to the fire. The same with Wright willing to accept less money at the moment too.
With today’s news about the lower Bond rating for Citi Field, either the Mets are in bad financial straits or that Sandy Alderson is some fabulous contract negotiator!
So much for the insane notion that the Mets dont have any debt.
Do you owe Con Ed Money for next June?
Of course you don’t the Bill hasn’t come in yet….
Neither has what the Mets owe either….
wait, because the bill is not due today, you don’t have to care at all about saving enough money up so that when it does hit, you can pay it?
Quite the interesting concept of personal finance you have. Though you would fit right in in Washington.
How much did you take out of this months paycheck to pay next year’s con Ed bills?
Did you not eat this week, Not pay your cable bill and bank it all to pay some bill next year?
You should not be SAVING to pay bills….
You should be EARNING to pay the bills!
And it’s you guys that think any money saved this year is going to be spent on someone well then explain what happened to all that money they made from 2006-2009?
They have earned a profit every year they owned the team until 2010….
So why haven’t they saved enough to walk through that park huh?
You think saving money means they will spend later….
YOUR WRONG!
They will pocket the money and only spend when it looks like you will go see them….
And since you all will wait UNTIL they win they will never spend and NEVER WIN!
Perpetual Loop of SUCK!
The Mets are still in bad financial straits. Anyone who doesn’t believe that isn’t paying attention, IMO.
It just makes it fit better with the Sandy is the root of all evil agenda to ignore the financial and ownership situation. Remember, the only reason the mets cut payroll and aren’t going to the WS is because Sandy is a small market mentality guy, and he refuses to spend the gobs of cash the owners don’t know what to do with.
How ignorant you are….
You think My agenda is Sandy is the root of Evil?
WRONG!
The root of all evil are fans who suggest a guy who has lost MORE games since he took over and dismantled a team is doing a GREAT JOB!
You think I am against Sandy? Hardly!
I’m against those who jump for joy no matter what he does because they are too stupid to look at the actual affect on the team subjectively….
Just Wave the Pom Poms and Jump for Joy!
You know like you guys did when we traded Pagan for two stiffs?
I’m with Jim @ bringing back Scott Hairston. The theory is that if a player has performed well in a NY Met uniform at Citi Field, then he’ll likely continue to do so in the absence of any intervening or unforeseen adverse influence. At the very least, Scott’s a known quality who produces and enjoys playing in New York. In a world imperiled with false moves, signing Hairston wouldn’t be one of them.
As for anyone else, I’d rather see what we have in-house, or perhaps move Duda or Valdespin with a medium grade pitching prospect for someone like Gorkys Hernandez, Jake Marisnick (now with the Marlins) or Giant’s prospect Gary Brown.
Anything beyond re-signing Hariston or making a modest trade for a young OF will be running a risk the Wilpons can ill afford.
Broski -
I like Scott but only as a platoon. He hit .239 against righties last year with a .281 OBP
His career numbers are about the same against righties – .229 ba with a .288 OBP
That’s really not good enough numbers to be a full time starter.
And 2Cat – while we’re on the lefty/right topic – have you checked out Ike davis versus lefties?
Last year .174 ba with a .225 OBP in 178 PA
Career .217 ba with .281 OBP in 366PA
Those are not small samples – the boy can’t hit lefties. He may also need to be platooned.
In fact we may have an all platoon outfield with a platoon first base.
In fact – can hairston play first?…..
Sure his career Lefty/Righty splits are going to be terrible when you factor in last year, where he was extremely terrible vs LHP.
But since he has only played 2 full seasons in the Pro’s how about we compare his 2010 to 2012
2010 vs LHP – .295 ba with a .362 OBP in 138 PA
2012 vs LHP – .174 ba with a .225 OBP in 178 PA
So to be fair the Jury is still out….I tend to think that 2012 was just a down year where he got off to an extremely bad start in only his 2nd full year in the Majors.
Don’t forget the valley fever. The mets downplayed its effect but I bet it weakened Ike.
Hey BB -
You are right about 2010 – and boy, if he kept doing that we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
Unfortunately, that was only 122 at bats.
SINCE THEN – he has had 43 ab’s in 2011 against lefty which is too small a sample but hit only .163 with a .260 obp
And as I previously pointed out last year was .174 with a .225 obp. in 167 at bats.
And I agree that the jury is still out on Ike. But as of the last two years (well really just last year) he was pathetic against lefties – so it seems that lefty pitchers have found a weakness in his swing…one that even you and I can see. He gets fooled easily on outside breaking pitches. there is a hold in his swing that you can drive a mack truck through.
At times last year he looked like he flat out gave up. So that must be fixed if he wants to be anything more than a platoon hitter.
And the thing that bothered me the most was his .228 ba in september! so much for improving in the second half and I doubt the valley fever was affecting him then – or maybe it was and he’s still sick today.
Bingo. Plenty of rookies have a hot start, and get figured out at some level (see Jacobs). If he started out hitting lefties, of course they were going to change their approach to find his weakness. And for whatever reasons, right now they have it. So, the question becomes, can he make an adjustment to overcome it?
given where he is in his career, unless the injury/illness was the real factor, 2012 is a whole lot more relevant than 2010.
if i remember right, he started off september just fine…then the whole firestorm came out about his midnight movie going habits came out…then he started losing playing time to Duda at 1B….then in the last week of the season he did fine again ( hitting .304 in the final 8 games )
maybe spreading rumors about your young inexperienced players isnt a good move according to the Bill James school of sabermetric sensitivity statistics other wise known as SSSS
BTW – I am hoping that Sandy drafts from the College ranks this year.
You’re not the only one. If we draft one more kid that’s a project or 5-6 years away I may just scream. :-O
So I’m confused. We all want super high ceiling guys (Hawkins as an example), yet you want to see college guys drafted? Wouldn’t you rather see high potential guys signed, college or no?
TX,
I have to agree with you here TX we’ve been down this road of drafting college ready players and the results werent good last couple years of Ike and Harvey were good but besides those 2 look how many talented players we’ve missed out on.
Its just the results of impatient Mets fans whom want Microwave ready players and want to use the Draft to supplement for Sandy Aldersons inactivity on the free agent market.
If we would have selected a college bat in 2011 draft it would either be Levi Michael(who sucks now) or Mikie Mahtook who seems avg at best in A+ ball last year at age 22. Many think we should have taken Matt Barnes but as the Mets stated they wanted to take a bat early because their was so much pitching available and they were high on Nimmo. In there defense the Mets wanted Springer a college bat but he was selected ahead of them.
The MLB draft is nothing like the NBA or NFL draft
Ya, the next Eddie Kunz is what will save us.
At this point there is nothing – absolutely nothing – worth signing. Scott Hairston included, who will be vastly overpaid. Wait until the end of January and offer a bunch of minor league contracts.
Joe,
A few points -
1. Your representation of Affeldt vs. Francisco is not exactly forthright. Yes, Affeldt had a good year in 2012, but the Giants had to plunk down $18 mil over 3 years for essentailly a journeyman middle reliever at age 33. And, Affeldt got a $3 mil signing bonus plus $5 mil in 2013 salary, so “this year” he is costing $1.5 million more than FF. Also, Affeldt has exactly 13 career saves, about 1/6 as many as FF. FF also BB/9 and HR/9 numbers.
2. Everyone seems to be judging the FF signing with only 50% of the returns in. 2012 was not good, but let’s see what they get in 2013 before these declarations of disaster.
3. The Mets definitely need another back end arm in the bullpen, to add depth and closer insurance, but again, let’s wait for the offseason to end before passing judgment. I was disappointed that they did not try or try harder for Soria and Madson, but let’s see where it ends up.
Hi TP,
Francisco is also 33 years of age and one cannot compare five of his last seasons to those put up by Affledt (2010 being his only glitch). Also, one who has pitched his last four seasons with the same club cannot be called a journeyman anymore than Francisco, who spent many years with Texas.
Francisco was also signed to take over the role of a closer while his better seasons have been when pitching middle relief – just like Affledt – which means the Mets are also mis-using him.
Joey D.,
Affeldt has been on 4 teams and to my knowledge, never been defined as an 8th inning guy nor a closer. That is my definition of a journeyman – a career middle releiver.
Hi TP,
Got ya on that. My thoughts about a journeyman player was one that bounced around from team to team never really extended his visit beyond a season or two.. Affeldt having been on the Giants for so many years simply took him off my own journeyman list.
Wishing you and yours a happy and healthy new year.
When I look at the current state of the pen and what’s currently floating out in free agency at the moment, I estimate the Mets need about 3 or 4 more parts to the pen. For what the Mets currently have for the pen, the ones I would run with are Edgin, McHugh, Francisco, and Familia. Parnell? For all the early talk about him being an “untouchable”, it would be best to swap him and a minor league piece like Adam Kolarek to SD for Luke Gregerson, the man the Mets should’ve nabbed back at the trade deadline. Next, kick the tires on a 2-year deal on Valverde, although they missed the boat on Takashi Saito, who wanted to go back to Japan. Brandon Lyon would also be a huge plus. For another lefty, my vote goes to Rafael Perez. I firmly believe a move to the NL is exactly what he needs to revert to the ’07-’08 Perez. Honorable mentions? Kyle Farnsworth and Kameron Loe.
Your other choices are solid minor league deals like Joey Devine, Kyle McClellan, Juan Carlos Oviedo and Peter Moylan.
Wait… Why would they trade Parnell for gregerson? Trading for relievers never works out anyway.
A place like San Diego and playing at Petco would do Parnell good. Would make a great bridge to Street and probably would ascend to look like closer material. Minaya would probably vouch for him too.
Sure it would be good for Parnell. But not the mets… Parnell is better than gregerson.
LMFAO. You’re joking, right?
I guess you were going along with the “lolz parnell has no mental toughness he can’t handle the pressure” thing…
Parnell had a 2.49 era, 20 walks, 61 k’s, and a 61% gb rate last year. (68 innings)
Gregerson had a 2.39 era, 21 walks, 72 k’s, with a 50% gb rate in a more pitcher friendly park with a better defense against lesser offensive teams in the nl west. (71.2 innings)
The park factors, groundball rate, defense, and the offensive talent of opposing teams really makes a pretty big difference. It’s not close.
So what I’m hearing is that fans would rather have ownership pocket $25 million than spend some of that on Bourn? Is he a scrub? Would he be any riskier than David Wright?
Just remember to sign Bourn, you are giving up your 1st round draft pick. So it’s not just the $.
A draft pick is a long shot not a guarantee. Bourn will fill 2 major gaps. A CF which we desperately need and a lead off hitter. This will allow Tejada to feel more comfortable batting 2nd and LF and RF won’t have to cover as much ground. With the extra wildcard, it gives the fans a chance to believe and want to go out to root for the 2013 Mets. Worst case, we can probably trade Bourn mid-season to a contender for more lotto tickets.
So what since we probably wind up losing him for lack of willingness to pay him slot anyway?
And isn’t our 1st rounder protected anyway for being in the top 15 of the draft?
Top 10 are protected…the Mets draft 11th.
“Compensatory picks that one team gave another via this method were the highest available pick that team had, with the exception of picks in the top half of the first round.[33] These picks were protected from being used as compensation. If a team that picked in the top half of the first draft signed a Type A free agent, they would give up their second-round pick. ”
That was last year….Top HALF (pick 16 and lower)
This year
“For the 2012 draft, the previous “Type A” and “Type B” designations remained in place, but the CBA included special provisions that modified the statuses of 11 players who were Type A free agents under the 2007 CBA. Six of these were “Modified Type A”—meaning that the signing team did not forfeit a draft pick, but the player’s former team received a compensatory pick in the same position it would have earned under regular Type A rules.”
SO no we would not automatically lose any picks!
“For MLB teams to obtain a protected first round draft pick in 2013, they will have to finish this year with one of the nine worst records in baseball. Though the top ten draft choices are protected under the sport’s new collective bargaining agreement, one of those selections will go to the Pirates, who did not sign their 2012 first round pick, Mark Appel. This means the nine teams with the worst records in baseball will have protected first round selections in 2013, MLB confirmed to MLBTR.”
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/bottom-nine-teams-obtain-protected-picks.html#h0t81UHCdJh23IiB.99
Yes the Mets would lose their pick if they signed anyone who received a qualifying offer.
To quote your favorite line: YOUR WRONG
Ah I see where I messed up…
Our pick doesn’t go to the team we get the FA from….It just goes away…
They get a Compensatory pick between 1st and 2nd Round….
Still really doesn’t matter because we couldn’t sign our 2nd rounder last year because we couldn’t afford the 60K Slot money…..
So Doubtful we will sign our 1st rounder who will want above slot….
the draft lasts 40 rounds. You are seriously not going to sign a player that would immediately improve your club because you want to draft 40 guys ?!!?
The Marlins signed Jose Reyes…
We didnt even sign the comp pick we got for that…
please spare me your B.S.
If the wilpons save any money…you dont see a DIME FROM IT
Nope they wouldn’t JDD thas the problem here….
They are all about kids and cheap….
But as JoeD points out in another article it isn’t working…..
Forget for a second that signing someone like that could generate enough attendance to offset the loss of Dickey and add 23 Mil on top of that to cover the losses they had last year….
They don’t WANT to win now…they want to win in 4 years when I guess they might have earned enough money to go see them and add to the attendance….
We signed the comp pick for Reyes, Matt Reynolds. It was our own 2nd rounder we didn’t sign.
Is there really a difference Fonz? There were just three picks in between them not 30. lol Point is they dropped the ball. Why try to defend that?
Right it’s actually a flaw in the rule. I actually asked Jonathan Mayo to check for me a few weeks ago.
Technically the Mets are being punished because the Pirates couldn’t sign Appel last year. Thus, the flaw in the rule.
Thanks to the Pirates, who slotted in #10 in front of us for not signing their first round pick last year. Otherwise, we’d have that #10 slot.
And I don’t think that system is fair. Who you did or did not sign the year before should have no bearing on ‘bumping’ a team the following year. They should slot the Pirates in at something like 9a and we pick after at #10, still having that protected pick.
Are you guys kidding me? Are you really whining about the Mets not having a protected first rounder as if that’s what’s keeping them from signing a top free agent? LOL! Well at least this time srt isn’t saying blame Wilpon. Now it’s blame the Pirates.
You should be hoping that wherever we pick we don’t waste another pick as we did in the last two years. So Nimmo is repeating Brooklyn, huh? He’s gone from 18 year old Wonderkind to 20 year old Uh-Oh. LOL
Oh and Happy New Year! Look forward to another year of mostly disagreeing with all of you.
Rangers are now saying they are looking for a DH/1B to replace Napoli’s numbers.
How about a 3 team deal w/Duda going to the Rangers, Craig Gentry going to the Diamondbacks and Jason Kubel coming to the Mets ??
I don’t believe that $25M figure is accurate. Bay’s $15M, which is deferred, helps the Mets for cash flow purposes only. The full expense is apparently booked against the 2013 payroll — i.e., there’s a total of $10M that can be spent (outfield, #5 starter, and whatever bullpen hires are done to split this.)
I bet if the Mets really wanted to sign Bourn they probably get a waiver and not give a first round draft pick. I could see a scenario where Braves would still get an extra first round pick but remember picks are no longer tied to new team so commissioner’s could step in and help here and it would be the right thing to do. Remember that the first ten draft picks are protected and the only reason the Mets are not in top ten is that Pirates didn’t sign first round draft pick last year so is that fair? This is exactly the scenario where the commissioner’s office and the player’s union would agree. I say sign Bourn and just for the hell of it bring back Izzy to help the youngsters.
I doubt that the commissioner’s office has the ability to override the collective bargaining agreement. Perhaps ruling on certain things might be written to be decided by the commissioners office but granting waivers to particular teams isnt likely.
Hi taskmaster,
I don’t think the commissioner finding teams not abiding by the new CBA agreement presents a problem at all. After all, he’s allowed nine of the thirty teams to be in violation of the debt ceiling rule. How could that be under the terms of the 2002 labor negotiations that still apply to this day?
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/02/sports/la-sp-0603-baseball-debt-20110603
Well, you started out right. The commissioner ruling against a team violating the CBA wouldn’t be the problem. Its the other party involved in the CBA that will raise hell.
Rangers are now saying they are looking for a DH/1B to replace Napoli’s numbers.
How about a 3 team deal w/Duda going to the Rangers, Craig Gentry going to the Diamondbacks and Jason Kubel coming to the Mets ??
I’m sure Sandy knows playing the waiting game when it comes to free agency usually winds up playing the crying game instead by winding up with nothing.
It’s not the same as playing macho with a general manager over a trade when one is dangling a star player as bait.
Joe:
Agree about the draft. Lets use the first rounder on a good, right hand hitting, 30 hr projectable outfielder. No more 5 year guys. Hopefully, the plan was to pick those 4/5 yr guys in the first two drafts and then start picking the guys who’ll be quicker now…knowing their plan all along was to have a contending team around the time all these guys would hopefully be ready.
I don’t agree that they waited too long to make roster moves. The market started high as soon a Ghomes and Melky got big bucks…that’s the facts. You can’t keep blaming Sandy for misjudging a market he simply saw start out big.
Soria? I’m with Jessop here. You can’t point to “win now” teams and say, “look, they’re making things happen!” The Mets, despite a no punting declaration decided to do precisely that once RA got dealt for prospects. No team that wants to win now trades their best pitcher for prospects. The mets won 74 games with RA so it’s definately for the best that they were able to dramatically improve their future by obtaining two top prospects for him. I’m thankful Sandy pulled that trigger, because the big market team just doesn’t have the assets to improve their roster enough to compete with just 25 million in today’s market.
Near MLB ready outfielders don’t just grow on trees. Can’t expect the mets to pick these guys when they don’t exist.
Rangers are now saying they are looking for a DH/1B to replace Napoli’s numbers.
How about a 3 team deal w/Duda going to the Rangers, Craig Gentry going to the Diamondbacks and Jason Kubel coming to the Mets ??
If that lock for 30HRs was in the draft, he would be gone before pick # 11 anyway.
Don’t worry about Hairston. At the rate things are going, the FO will mess around until he’s not available and then say thay there’s no one left that’s better than what we have now. I think we might have heard that once or twice in the recent past – like the last 2 years! I’m starting to think that SA can spend as much as he wants, as long as he doesn’t spend any more than the team earned the year before,not including TV rights and any money received from MLB. Oh, and he has to take the blame, not the Three Stooges. By the way, have you noticed how much Jeff looks like Shemp? Runs a team like Shemp, too!
Hey Steve,
Don’t compare Jeff Wilpon to Shemp – my brother will take exception. He’s in the camp that thinks Shemp was funnier than Curley – not just as funny – but actually funnier.
Maybe the biggest structural weakness of this franchise over the past 10+ years has been an inability to come up with solid & cost efficient relief pitching. And if you look around the league, the most successful teams have featured bullpens of mostly young & homegrown relievers. It´s both cost efficient and effective in terms of getting outs. And except for adding an elite closer from the outside when your team is very close to championship caliber contender, handing out a multi-year deal to a veteran free agent reliever almost never is a good idea. The Mets did get some bang for their buck signing K-Rod and “trading” for Billy Wagner in the past. However, beyond that, pretty much every contract to a lesser tier reliever has flopped. Both for the Mets and in Baseball in general. Whether the GM has been Phillips , Duquette, Minaya or Alderson. And it´s pretty much true for every other GM in Baseball. Relievers get (ab)used a lot. Unlike with SP, there is very little routine and often a very unsteady usage, bound to put arms at a higher risk of injuries. And even if not, odds are, their fastballs are in decline.
With the exception of 2006 where almost everything went right, Mets bullpens have generally been areas of disasters – playing a huge role in sabotaging promising seasons along the way.
Of course, there´s a direct link between bullpen follies and lack of developing enough young pitching. Over the past 10+ years, the Mets have only developed a handful of decent relievers:
RH Heath Bell (who struggled in several tries with the Mets and then blossomed in SD where his straight mid 90s fastball was less of a risk to leave the park)
RH Joe Smith (a sidearming setup reliever who has always been tough on righties and just recently has found a way to hold his own vs. lefties – but also got traded away after just 1 year)
RH Matt Lindstrom (also traded very early into his career)
RH Aaron Heilman (who was really good for two seasons when his changeup was a plus pitch before regressing)
RH Bobby Parnell (who has often struggled in high leverage situations but has been quite good otherwise and in 2012 took a big step forward)
If you want to see a big part of the reason for 1 playoff appearance over the past 12 seasons, there you go. And this is true both in terms of lack of quality and lack of quantity.
And since last winter was a good example of why “buying” yourself a bullpen – even at modest cost and without any lasting effects – rarely works, the Mets will have to look to finally do better in this aspect of team-building.
Instead of wasting money on higher end relievers, the Mets should strictly hand out 1-year deals to a couple of leftover free agent relievers this winter – especially with the 2013 team highly unlikely to contend. Signing a free agent reliever to a multi-year deal now in hopes he´ll be around in 2014 or 2015 when the Mets are hopefully contenders again is a recipe for disaster.
And a big key for the Mets will be to come up with fresh young arms from within to finally end the bullpen miseries. And besides providing a pretty good longterm rotation outlook the unusual pitching depth in the Mets farm system today should go a long way towards finally solving this problem.
In 2013, I expect Josh Edgin and Jeurys Familia to see plenty of bullpen action. Recently turned sidearmer Greg Burke also was an intriguing find. Robert Carson and Elvin Ramirez should also get a chance. And even SP like Collin McHugh or Darin Gorski figure to get a shot at a bullpen role in case there´s no room for them in the major league rotation. RHs Jason Fraser and Armando Rodriguez both should be in the Las Vegas pen and get a shot with the Mets at some point in 2013.
Looking ahead to 2014, several promising arms should be close to the majors a year from now and potentially emerge as legitimate bullpen options:
RHs Cory Mazzoni, Jacob DeGrom and Domingo Tapia all have plus fastballs and one good secondary pitch to go with quality command that could get them to the majors in bullpen roles quickly – though I guess each will remain in a minor league rotation to begin 2013 to work on things. Lefties Jack Leathersich & Adam Kolarek have dominated lefties and could advance in similarly quick fashion as Josh Edgin did last year.
So, besides longterm commitments to relievers rarely working out anyway, they don´t make a lot of sense for a likely non-contender in 2013 anyway with a promising group of young arms closing in. Let´s give them a chance and see who can be part of the solution.
What he said.
Agree.
Although I wasn’t very impressed with what I saw of Elvin and Carson last season. I’m sure they’ll be in the mix in ST though. Maybe they learned some about pitching in the MLs during their cup of coffee last season.
Another reason for the Mets’ BP woes has been a subpar SP rotation from about ’07 / ’08 onward. A combination of lack of quality arms & stamina has led to the BP being taxed by about mid-season, which i think explains a large piece of why we’ve collapsed in the 2nd halves of recent Seasons. It’s be nice for the rotation to last into the 7th inning in even 1/2 of their starts.
Another way to salvage the BP over the course of the year would be to have ‘caddies’ ready to relieve ‘certain starters who often have trouble getting through the 6th inning. Guys like Young, & Santana should be relieved steadily by ‘long men’ (and we have a few) like McHugh, Hefner, Familia, Mejia, Gorki to ‘finish’ games and avoid a revolving door BP game-after-game that taxes relievers’ arms in the swoon days of late July / August / September.
I like the concept but you are going to have to kidnap Collins and lock him away for the entire season to pull it off.
Ha, you’re right vanrockin. Most managers do this righty / lefty paranoia to the extreme, TC very much so. The ‘caddy’ idea might work to ‘save’ the BP late into a Season IF ever implemented.
The BP is a prime example of how some want money spend just for the sake of spending money because that is what a big market team does. Well, it is not necessarily what a winning team does. I like the post that mentioned the Mets were already down that road in 2012 by spending big dollars on BP help. What did it get the Mets? Nothing.
Relievers tend to be a quirky bunch. Some come in and do terrific after being garbage for years and some do the reverse. Do you think Miami really foresaw Health Bell ending up as a set up man when they signed him to a 3 year deal? What happened? Typical reliever…he went to crap.
The best approach is to bring in a ton of arms to ST and let them fight it out. Those that stay, keep them on a short leash. If they dont get the job done early in the season, ship them to Vegas (or release them) and bring in someone else. Low price talent can be handled that way. Ironic how the Phillies were able to completely redo their BP midseason because of that.
Bullpen is Francisco, Parnell, Edgin, and Famillia. These guys have spots pretty much locked up. I feel Trusting Carson is a mistake this year when Howell fits what we need. Two solid lefties goes far in this division and Carson would provide even more depth. Although I can see why Alderson would want to give Carson a spot and see if he can be that second leftie they need. He has good stuff, throws hard, and did well stranding runners last year.
Young rotation with a lot of upside but also a lot of injury concerns, need to build a strong bullpen to help them. Mets are a kid 80 win team with a better bullpen last year. Maybe the young kids break out in pen this year, but adding a quality arm or two is a must for me.
I am not putting anything into what this front office says. This is the team that we will have to watch with maybe some minor tweaks, turning into a 5th consecutive losing season, but we will be fed nonsense again about adding parts as they compete in the first half only to flounder after the all-star break with nothing being done. Please sell the team!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJqg_-wXnuU
So you name a guy who you say obviously wanted to return to SF and a rebound guy who won’t be ready to start the season and say now that they are gone not much is left? Seems like plenty is left and with bullpens nothing is certain.
Dont worry yourself, Zack Wheeler, Mike Fulmer and Noah Sindergard is all you need. They will save the franchise. lol Generation KKK
Rangers are now saying they are looking for a DH/1B to replace Napoli’s numbers.
How about a 3 team deal w/Duda going to the Rangers, Craig Gentry going to the Diamondbacks and Jason Kubel coming to the Mets ??
Nobody else sees Jenrry Mejia in the bullpen long-term?
If he can figure out how to command that fastball with crazy movement, he can be a very good reliever.