4
2012
The Unknown Commodity: Bullpen Arms
An article by 
It seems like year after year the Mets are looking at upgrading their bullpen. Whether it’s Sean Green, Elmer Dessens, Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Schoeneweis, Billy Wagner, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez, Jason Isringhausen, or even D.J. Carrasco.
It never seems like the Mets have figured out what makes for a great bullpen year after year. Sure you can develop arms like Atlanta, but that’s probably even harder to do. Maybe it’s not so much an organizational flaw, maybe it’s that nobody has truly figured it out yet?
What worries me about relievers is despite what people think – they are so unpredictable.
If I told you the Mets could get a reliever who last year had a 2.62 ERA in 68IP with 66K and 26BB with 1.16 WHIP while 10 out of 39 inherited runners scored.
You’d probably say “sign me up!”
Then I call him Ramon Ramirez 2011 and he’s run out of town because he struggled in 2012 and used as an example why our current front office is incompetent.
Yet here we are looking for bullpen help again.
The toughest thing to find in MLB is a good and consistent bullpen. The GM that figures it out will make a lot of money one day
To give you an example:
The Orioles and A’s both had remarkable seasons. Nobody here can deny that. They both had incredible bullpens in 2012.
But just look at Baltimore for a second.
Baltimore scored 7 runs more than they gave up but managed to win 93 Games in the AL. Of the other playoff teams, the smallest run differential was Detroit who scored 56 more runs than they gave up. Detroit won 5 games LESS than Baltimore.
They went 29-9 in 1 run games. Think about that for a second. They won 76% of their 1 run games! The next best in the American League was 66%. The difference between the Orioles 76% and the 2nd best at 66% is a 3 way-wildcard tie with the LA Angels with the Texas Rangers waiting for an opponent in another 1 game playoff.
Baltimore had a Top 5 bullpen in 2012, and finished 27th in bullpen the year prior.
The re-emergence of Darren O’Day who in 2011 appeared in just 16 big league games with a 5.40 ERA and 7 HR’s allowed comes back in 2012 and pitched 67 innings with a 2.28 ERA and allows 6 HRs. O’Day was selected off waivers last November after spending 17 games in AAA due to his struggles in the big leagues.
Pedro Strop who at 26 years old had appeared in 45 games since 2009 with a 5.22 ERA in 39 innings turns into a reliever with 70 appearances and a 2.44 ERA.
Troy Patton who was a Top 10 prospect for the Orioles struggles in 2009 with a 6.45 ERA in 9 AAA starts, then follows it up in 2010 with a 4.43 ERA in 25 AAA starts. Then in 2011 he gets moved to the bullpen in AAA, turns out a 1.83 ERA which leads to 54 MLB appearances and a 2.43 ERA.
Then you add Jim Johnson who in 90 games from 2009-2010 had a 3.92 ERA in 96IP with 105 Hits allowed and a 1.38 WHIP. Now in 2012 he appears in 71 Games with a 2.49 ERA, 51 Saves, and a 1.01 WHIP.
Then at age 34, Luis Ayala who we all remember is signed and appears in 66 games with a 2.64 ERA.
So as I read reports of the Mets interested in this guy or that guy – I take it with a grain of salt for now because I do not think anybody can explain to me why suddenly the Orioles bullpen clicked.
Is it Bill Castro who took over their bullpen coaching duties? Perhaps it’s Rick Adair who went from bullpen coach to pitching coach after Mark Conner resigned in June 2011? There could be a hundred different hypotheses on the subject.
To me, I think a player like Ramon Ramirez could have been a success here just as easily as he failed. Prior to 2012 if you were to evaluate Ramirez you’d say over the last 4 years he pitched in 276 games with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.77 ERA and of the 169 runners he inherited, 38 scored (23%). If your team needs bullpen help – you’d love to add those numbers to your roster.
It has nothing to do with who signed whom, or sabermetrics versus traditional. To debunk that theory, just look at Baltimore and Oakland. It has everything to do with the unpredictability of building a bullpen.
If prior to the 2011 season, the Mets signed Luis Ayala who spent the entire 2010 season with 3 different AAA squads to the tune of a 6.42 ERA, whoever the GM was at the time would have been publicly bashed. Then in 2011 for the Yankees, Ayala appears in 52 games with a 2.09 ERA. Go figure.
The problem with acquiring any type of bullpen arm outside of a closer is that you never truly know what you’re going to get.
I know there are some stats to determine luck versus skill, but the truth is you just never know. The best a General Manager of any team can do is acquire the best talent he can find and hope for the best. If the Mets were to acquire a pitcher like Vinnie Pestano, they are acquiring a 2.45 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 137 big league games. If he fails then what?
The Orioles this year are in a unique spot. Their starting staff was in the bottom 10 in the sport. Their offense was 15th in baseball, but their bullpen caught lightning in a bottle. If I was a fan of the Orioles, I’d be very cautious heading into 2013 because a great bullpen arm can turn into an average arm in an instant.
The Mets have possibly 3 or more bullpen slots to fill before Opening Day. What they acquire on paper could be drastically different than what we see on the field.
If you have any doubts about the unpredictability of bullpen arms, simply look no further than 33 Games, 29IP with 24K and a 1.24 WHIP with a 2.12 ERA. I give you, Oliver Perez.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
22 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Saturn: on Braves vs Mets Preview: Amazins Have Tough Assignment Against Medlen In Opener: Hahaha :) A secret Society of polite...
- Saturn: on Braves vs Mets Preview: Amazins Have Tough Assignment Against Medlen In Opener: Hahaha. Come on Mets fans, lets have...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Braves vs Mets Preview: Amazins Have Tough Assignment Against Medlen In Opener: Lmao!!! Wow the Mets suck....good job LaTroy!!!
- Connor O'Brien: on Mets Will Need To Overpay To Attract Quality Players, But Will They?: "Question is would the Rangers. Doubt it.' If...
- RandomGuy: on Braves vs Mets Preview: Amazins Have Tough Assignment Against Medlen In Opener: And.... so much for Hefner getting a...
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5393 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and hard to predict production out of. Just acquire talent and keep your fingers crossed.
hey Sane – thanks for reading and commenting here!
So if bullpens are hard to predict and fickle…does Omar get a pass for the 2007 + 2008 bullpens ?
good piece. And a big reason I like the idea of collecting as many live arms as possible and letting them fight for a job in ST. Better shot that way of latching onto th eguy who is goign to have his miracle year than by anointing all the spots before ST even starts.
thanks for the comment! It’s funny because a guy like Parnell for instance, he could go somewhere else and dominate in 2013 for all we know. He has the talent, but bullpen arms seem to figure things in an unpredictable manner
You know why you can’t find the key to getting good Bullpen arms?
Because you keep looking at the stats and a good bullpen arm isn’t about his stats but his stuff.
What type of pitcher is he?
High Heat K machine?
Finesse GB Pitcher?
Those are the only two types who consistently perform out of the pen you should be looking for.
If the guys your looking at do not fit one of those two then he is not a good consideration for the pen.
High Heat K machine?: 168K in his last 246 innings of work
Finesse GB Pitcher?: GB/FB ratio of 0.89
“If the guys your looking at do not fit one of those two then he is not a good consideration for the pen.”
Now tell me over the last two seasons that Luis Ayala isn’t a good fit for a bullpen.
That’s nice that you don’t want to look at stats. It’s completely unreasonable and illogical to do that though. How do you know if somebody is a K machine or a GB pitcher then if you don’t see actual results?
There are exceptions to everything of course….
But now list all the other guys who don’t fit my parameters and are any good!
Does the stats you looked at tell you what type of pitcher he is?
Does it tell you if he is a guy who comes out of the pen and gets it done quickly?
Does it tell you if he is good at holding runners?
Does it tell you anything like that?
What Pitches does Ayala have in his aresenal? Do you even know?
I bet you don’t just as you didn’t know when it was Ramirez with the numbers and fooled you into thinking it was a good day!
But forget all that….
Look at the MET situations and the ballparks they have played in.
List all the best relievers in Met History and tell me what the most successful guys threw.
Ayala’s mostly relies on a sinker almost half the time with slider and changeup splitting time with an occasional 4 seam fastball
Ahh so he fits EXACTLY what I said …..
Sinker=GB Pitcher!
And if his stats don’t reflect that then obviously he didn’t use it properly and could have been much better!
Where does injury fit into all of this as well? I think it’s common knowledge that Ayala was injured while with the Mets as was FFF and Ramon. I guess you could get on the GM’s for getting damaged goods but that’s hard to predict as well.
So Ramirez with 66 K’s in 68 innings and 50% GB ratio in 2011 wouldn’t have been someone you would be interested in.
Again your looking at stats not the scouting report.
And I guess you think one K per inning makes you a K type pitcher…
What are the K/IP ratio for guys like Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen, and Axford?
For GB Pitchers look at guys like Ziegler, does Ramirez have numbers like either of those guy I mentioned?
LOL, damn me for looking at stats but yeah those same scouts I am sure would have also looked at his stats.
However, you are the one that said K rate and GB rate.
And does he fit the K Rate of the guys I mentioned?
Does he fit the G0 GDP rate of the other guy?
NO!
No the scouts would look for the type of pitches he throws, where he throws them and how well he gets it down and keeps it down.
Something You ignore because you and Jessup don’t have the scouting reports and rely TOTALLY on stats which is why you Fail thinking Ramirez’ numbers fit the bill of what I am speaking about!
Can you send us scouting reports from 2011 on Ramirez? I can’t seem to find mine.
You shouldn’t need them as you (if you are an actual Fan) should have seen enough of him pitching to make your own scouting assesment….
During 2011?
Yep you saw him Pitch does he seem like a guy who works the low zone or K’s a lot of guys?
Or is he just a failed starter whose stuff is not good enough to do multiple innings and only works when you limit how much a team sees him?
Is he a McDowel type?
A Randy Meyers Type?
Is he even John Franco type of Pitcher?
He doesn’t have the stuff that gets you out of innings quickly either via striking out a key batter or forcing him into a GDP.
Aren’t you then basically saying we fans should have 0 views on any player acquired? None of us have the scouting reports.
If you’re telling me everything you need is in the scouting report then aren’t you saying you know more than Jim D’Aloia or are you saying D’Aloia’s job is a scham and they don’t listen to him?
No I’m saying Fans who don’t have what is needed to make a good decision should not assume stats are a decent replacement for your own ignorance.
Did you look at all the available pitchers and what types of Pitches they threw, how they worked the zone, all those things that would be in a scouting report when you thought Ramirez was a good pick?
Or did you do what most ignorant fans do, Look at the player recieved and then ran to his stat sheet to find a reason to like it?
I’m POSITIVE (with what you stated above) the latter is what happened and thats why you failed in heralding the trade.
This is a classic case where SCOUTING is more important than Statistical analysis and why Stats can NEVER be a substitute for scouting cause they are incapable of actually telling you what role a pitcher is best suited for.
Ramirez is not a high K or High GB pitcher at all…He is a very average guy who is only in the pen because he is no good as a starter.
100% correct, I thought we stole Ramirez