Dec
13
2012

Talk Of Mets Dealing Niese Absurd

jon niese

Anybody who believes the Mets are serious about trading Jon Niese is either: a) nuts, b) misinformed, c) clueless, or d) all of the above.

I’ve heard reports the Mets will trade either R.A. Dickey or Niese in their effort to acquire a power-hitting outfielder.

They seem almost desperate in their attempts to trade Dickey, but Niese isn’t going anywhere for a multitude of reasons.

Although Niese’s career high is 13 victories, he’s more potential than production at age 26. He’s young, left-handed, throws hard, has had success on the major league level, but most importantly, is inexpensive considering the market.

Cheap, actually.

Niese, in one of the few smart contract moves we’ve seen from the Mets in recent years, is signed to a five-year, $21.5 million contract. In short, the total value of his deal is less than what the Mets are reportedly willing to pay Dickey.

If Niese were in the NFL or NBA, he’d be holding out this spring. As it is, he’s locked in through 2016 with club options for 2017 and 2018.

In looking at the big picture for the Mets, Niese has more value than Dickey, and assuming he stays healthy and continues to improve, he’ll be here longer than the three years Dickey originally sought. If things progress, the Mets will have won the first Niese contract.

For all their talk about pitching depth, the Mets have issues that seem to be ignored by GM Sandy Alderson that can’t be overshadowed no matter how big a bat they get.

Yes, there’s a lot to like about Matt Harvey, but his showcase window is small. Ten games won’t make him Don Drysdale, no matter how impressive he was in that span. A bright future? Yes. A proven commodity? No.

This is Johan Santana’s last year with the Mets. Regardless of how well he pitches, he’ll be gone by 2014, and it looks the same for Dickey. That’s two holes in five spots. Any guess on how they’ll be filled?

Dillon Gee is coming off an injury and is unproven, as is, ironically enough, Niese. But, of those projected to be in the rotation after 2013, Niese would be the de facto ace as he’s shown the most in his short window. There’s an upside to Niese, but the fact remains he could be their No. 1 starter despite his limited resume.

So, if the Mets trade who will arguably be their best pitcher in the future for a power bat, how does that make them better than they are now?

It doesn’t.

Pitching is more important than power. Always has been; always will be. If it was my money, I’d keep Niese, pay Dickey what he wants, and look at signing a bat next winter as it is clear they won’t spend for one now. If the choice is Scott Hairston or Cody Ross, the Mets should hang onto their pitching and try again later.

It’s not as if they expect to win this year, right?

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About the Author: John Delcos

I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.

7 Comments + Add Comment

  • Agreed, but in hindsight if they where offered a Gio Gonzalez type package for Neise you at least have to consider it. Doubt that happens anyway, Neise should not be going anywhere.

  • i agree Niese should not, in a perfect world, Niese should not be traded. He’s a young lefty with some MLB credentials and is still peaking. But in Mets Land, this is a very imperfect world. So, i’d consider trading Niese for a passel of top prospects, bats, catching, up-the-middle defensive IFs with good OF potential…TX has a bunch of ‘em beyond Profar…Sardinis, Odor, Garcia….
    If we could get 1 or 2 of those thrown in with Olt for Dickey, i’d do that deal in s micro-second.

  • Niese & Wright have come a long way since last year. At one point it was about the Mets trading Niese because they were not going to pay him what he would earn in arb. The Mets trading Wright cause they were not going to pay him 9 figures. Today both are here. Course this was before the Picard settlement so that might have played a part.

  • Agreed. Trading Niese makes about as much sense as trading Matt Harvey, who like Niese is under Mets control for the next 6+ years at very manageable cost.
    Obviously, if the LA Angels call tomorrow and offer Mike Trout, either of them is gone.
    But trading Niese who has established himself as a fine # 2/3 starter and is signed to a very friendly longterm deal, especially considering what established back of the rotation SP are getting these days, makes very little sense.

    He also is the only LHP in the entire organization who seems like a good bet for 30 major league starts not only in 2013 but also 2016 – with all due respect to Steve Matz & Darin Gorski who either seem brittle or likely to be in a starter / reliever role longterm.

    For whatever reason, Matt Cerrone on Metsblog has constantly claimed that Niese could or even should be traded. For whatever weird reason.

    If the Mets have core players right now, Niese along with Wright & probably Harvey certainly is one of them.

    RA Dickey is 38 years old and has battled leg problems at times over the past couple of years to make him somewhat of a risk looking 3 years down the road. For Niese, besides the risk that pitching is hazardous to your health, there´s no such worry and thus no such reason to trade him, barring someone grossly overpaying.

  • “That’s two holes in five spots. Any guess on how they’ll be filled?”

    BINGO!

    Which is why I have taken the stance that signign Dickey for 3 years is the best way forward.

    Santana is gone this year and if we are lucky it will be at the deadline (good performance required) where we can get some kid instead of draft picks which will take far longer to contribute than some kid we get in trade.

    Luckily Wheeler (also unproven and unknown) should have enough AAA under his belt to come up at the deadline to replace him in the rotation.

    Strong Potential in our starting 5 there….

    But let Dickey go and now your talking about possibly bringing Wheeler up to start the season essentially rushing him a bit. And when Santana leaves we are back to the Hefners of this world unless Mejia and Familia actually start convincing someone they are actually starting materia.

    But Sign Dickey for the 3 year, let Wheeler take Santana’s place and you have two to 3 years to see if the guys like Mejia, Familia, Fulmer, Montero, Tapia, Mazzoni, and Urbina can be the guy to take Dickey’s place or if going year to year on Dickey is required until some other kid we get via draft or trade comes through to take him place.

    If we want guys like Niese, Harvey and Wheeler to thrive we can’t force them to be the #1 guy before they are ready for it and they will be well served by having a Vet who IMO is the most levelheaded and even keeled influence you could ask for in Dickey.

    Those Guys have the stuff already what they need is the never quit, Smart thinking, attitude that turns a good thrower into a great pitcher…

    Dickey CAN give them that!

    So I say sign Dickey, the risk is low, the gain is beyond just what Dickey gives you and it takes the stress off the rotation for the next three years while we figure out who the next kid is who deserves to be in the rotation.
    The rest who can’t break in can be used to rebuild that Pen without having to trade good pieces for cheap pieces of crap!

  • I’d entertain the thought of dealing Niese ONLY for the right price: ML or near-ML ready players consisting of a catcher, 1st baseman (it’s wise not to go overboard on Davis and see which Ike Davis we’ll see over a full, healthy season in 2013), and a top SP. On those needs alone, a team like the Seattle Mariners is a good fit.

  • Delcos, didnt you just a day or 2 ago blast alderson for doing nothing? maybe youve had second thoughts then. Yeah SA is probably going to re-sign Dickey. He said all along he will trade RA only if he gets a difference maker. teams are more willing to part with cash than prospects these days so short of trading niese there is no way they get back what they are needing. As you say that would be foolish.

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