3
2012
MMO Monday Musings
An article by XtreemIcon
The Wright Amount
When Evan Longoria inked his contract extension last week, many thought that the new money of six years and one hundred million dollars set the market for David Wright’s extension. Longoria’s obviously more talented and younger. So based on that, Wright at most should get the same extension, right? Wrong. Longoria set the market for Wright, but not the way you think it did. Free agent contracts (and also extensions that avoids free agency) are not given based on future potential production. I wish they were. We all wish they were. They’re offered more as lifetime achievement awards. Do you think Albert Pujols got his ten-year deal based on what he’ll produce through age 41? No, he got it based on what he did produce through age 31.
For Longoria’s career, he’s put up a .276/.361/.516 slash line against Wright’s .301/.381/.506 line. Advantage Wright. To put it in further perspective, Wright’s one of only five players to maintain a .300/.380/.500 slash line with a minimum of 2,500 plate appearances since his debut in 2004 (Longoria has 2,726 career PAs). The others are Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and Matt Holiday. Any way you slice it, that is pretty incredible. Manny Ramirez also satisfies the criteria, but he tested positive for PEDs. Twice. Ryan Braun falls just short with a .374 OBP, but his statistics are in question, as well.
Wright also has an element of speed to his game that Longoria does not, which offsets Longoria’s defensive edge. There’s also the playing time factor. Wright’s been a workhorse. With the exception of his broken back in 2011, Wright’s played at least 154 games in all but one season since his first full campaign in 2005. That exception is his 2009 season, in which he played in 144 games after missing time late in the season due to his beaning. Longoria, on the other hand, has missed significant playing time the last two seasons, missing 117 of his team’s games. Durability is a question.
I have no doubt Longoria is a better player than Wright, and I’d be comfortable saying he’ll have the better career from this point forward. But based on the way MLB hands out contracts, Wright deserved more. Longoria’s deal did set the market for Wright, but not the way you think it did.
Life After R.A. Dickey
It’s been reported that there’s a significant number of teams interested in trading for Dickey, and some of those teams have some very interesting pieces that would help the Mets. I’m on record saying that I wouldn’t think twice about offering Dickey a $36 million extension over three years and would even add a fourth option year. The Mets seem to think that they won’t need to offer as much to get a deal done, which would be even better. But we all need to consider the rotation without Dickey if he is indeed traded for catching and outfield help.
About a month ago, I e-mailed some MMO colleagues to gauge their interest in Dan Haren for the Mets as part of a potential Crossfire piece. No one disagreed with me, hence, no article. Haren was, up until last season, one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. From his first full year in 2005 through 2011 he averaged 34 starts and 226 innings, pitching to a 3.49 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 4.3 K/BB ratio. He did that splitting time between the American League and a hitter’s haven in Arizona. But in 2012, the last guaranteed year of his contract, lower back issues led to his worst major league season. The Angels tried to trade him to the Cubs, which fell through, and then they declined his $15.5 million option.
Haren’s been on my radar for years. I was very vocal about the Mets trading for him when he ultimately ended up in Anaheim. Despite his injury and down year last season, there’s a lot to like. Firstly, he’s 32, so I can’t believe he’s already washed up. The injury is significant, and I’m not suggesting a long term deal, but his track record is enough for me to believe there are no arm or leg issues that may surprise me. Secondly, the back issue was with him from the beginning of the season, and he pitched through it before finally landing on the DL. Upon his return, he made every scheduled start, and over those 13 starts, he looked like the old Haren. He posted a 3.58 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 4.0 K/BB ratio. His final eight starts of the season looked like a return to the Cy Young contender he’d previously been (2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41 Ks to only five walks!).
He finished the year on a very encouraging trend and the fact that his option was declined pretty much ensures he’d make no more than $12 million in 2013 and probably slightly less, which is more or less what the Mets would be paying Dickey. If Dickey were to be traded, I’d love to see Haren on a one year deal with an option, which gives the Mets sole discretion on whether he’s part of the team in 2014. If his back proves not to be problematic, his 2014 price could be very appealing on an exercised option. And if he flames out, he’ll put no more strain on the 2014 payroll than a measly $2 million or so buyout. If Haren were agreeable to, say, a two year deal for $20 million, I’d be inclined to guarantee that second year only because of the way he finished 2012, and even add a third year via option.
Scratching the Free Agent Itch
The Mets are in need of some outfield help, and names such as Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross and Angel Pagan have been bandied about. But I think the most appealing option may not have to travel far to Citi Field. Most recently a Yankee, Ichiro Suzuki provides just about everything the Mets are looking for in one player. A defensive standout in right field, Suzuki would allow Lucas Duda to play left field and give Kirk Nieuwenhuis a break covering center, and would provide a traditional leadoff bat with very good speed and off the charts baseball IQ.
Ichiro comes with the stigma of being a significantly below average hitter overall the last two season, but did show new signs of the life with the Yankees, putting up numbers more in line with his career norms. The change of scenery did him good. Ichiro is old, has lost a step and is not a long term solution, but neither are any of the other outfielders not named Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn. And none of the other options provide Ichiro’s defense, speed and leadoff capability. Ichiro could be signed on a one year deal for around $7-$8 million. There’s the chance that the Mets might have to up it to $10 million to convince him to sign with a team whose playoff hopes in 2013 ride on too many “ifs,” and that would give me pause, but it’s certainly a situation worth looking into and pursuing.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
27 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 28 | .600 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 35 | .493 | 7.5 |
| Phillies | 34 | 37 | .479 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 40 | .385 | 14.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 47 | .319 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/18/2013
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i think it’s Niese that gets traded, not RA. But i like your Dan Haren idea regardless.
The years are off because of Longoria already having 3 years on his current deal, so the same way Wright signed for 8 in reality, didn’t Longoria sign for 9?
And Longoira has much bigger injury issues.
Still, it seems that Wright is getting what, 500K-750K more per year?
Just to me it looks like when you shuffle all the cards they are very comparable players, and are getting paid right about the same amount per year (the $ that actually counts, not the total on the deal since that depends on years).
I don’t agree with trading Dickey or Niese at all!
Yes it’s logical to trade your strength to fix your weakness but Pitching is the exception to that rule as it is at a premium and you can never have enough of it.
Just look at the deadline deals and what are the teams in contention always looking to get?
PITCHING! Starting Pitching!
The Yanks, Braves, Phillies, and hell even the Nats now have done what they have because of the strength of thier pitching.
We are a year away from Santana leaving and we can get through that because we have Wheeler to take his place. But trade Dickey and your going from a Cy Young guy to Hefner. I don’t think you can get enough back to make up for that disparity.
If you are a team who has it’s Rotation set and locked up for the next 3,4 or 5 years only THEN do you consider trading a Starting Pitcher to convert your strength to needs.
Only other scenario is when you have a Full rotation but also have a kid that is good enough to promote but you have no room for in the rotation. Then you consider trading one of your rotation arms for something somewhere else since his replacement is already on the roster.
But we are no where near that yet. And whatever we think we will get for a trade of Niese or Dickey could just as easily be acquired by spending some money in FA to fill those holes without weakening the rotation.
Better to keep Dickey for the next 3 or 4 years as the Vet Mentor, That give Niese time to become more seasoned and perhaps a potential ace (if Harvey or Wheler don’t surpass him) and take over that Vet spot.
And hope that by then our draft has produced another kid to take over when Dickey retires.
We can get what we need (mostly OF) via FA provided we stop trying to build without spending.Spending doesn’t mean you have to give out 200Mil contracts but spending 8-15 Mil on a good OFer is certainly not going to break the bank. If they can’t make 115M in attendance doing that they can’t possibly turn a profit trying to get people to go see 1-3 Mil scrub signings either.
Normally, i agree with the “you never have enough SP” mantra but these are very atypical times in Metsville. IF by trading eirher Niese or RA and it’ll bring in a prospect the size of Myers + maybe a Perez + other top guys, including an SP prospect like Zimmer, i think we have to do a trade like that.
It fills 2 starting holes in the lineup that should / would be mainstays for years.
Prospects? Unproven!
Hey we had a lineup that consisted of Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, Wright and Santana….
What was the result and WHY was it the result?
PITCHING!
You need at least three top rotation arms to win, look at all the winners and they all have it.
In our case we have two kids that look good but are not yet proven. Guys who had as much promise as Generation K (remember them?)
Your not going to get enough back to offset the loss of the pitching and in the end your going to have to go back a get pitching for those prospects to win.
I suggest you just keep the pitching and go after the proven guys to fill those holes.
Then if you want to replace them with PROSPECTS go draft the kids to do it instead of trading trying to correct your past mistake in not doing so or getting them when they were IN the draft.
Have to agree about you can never have enough pitching. SP seems to be our only real strength right now – hence the reasons trading Dickey or Niese are even being discussed.
I’m hoping neither Niese or Dickey are sacrificed to make up for the fact that we don’t have an OF or real catcher but I can understand the argument being made to do just that.
SRT I understand the argument but the argument made is not as effective as keeping the Pitcher and just going out and spending 10-15M on the OFer and imrpoving from where you are WITH Dickey/Niese as opposed to hoping you get lucky and just marginally improve due to the loss of the Pitching offsetting whatever it is the new guy brings.
Dickey is a three year (4 the most) signing. Sure you might get a kid who lasts longer than that but while your waiting for him to be all he can be in the meantime he is not making up for what you lost with Dickey.
If we signed a OF to a 3 or 4 year deal then that gives you the next two drafts to go and get your OWN prospect to develop while still giving you a comptetive team while your waiting.
This is why I say spending doesn’t hurt your ability to draft and build from within. It actually HELPS you do that provided you don’t give out stupid contracts.
And even more so now that the CBA has changed and not every FA signing results in losing picks.
If I’m not mistaken this year is the perfect time as our first rounder is protected.
Doesn’t mean you have to raise payroll to 200M but somewhere around 115-120M is not something that should bankrupt them and if it is then buying a few hairstons is not going to help them either and neither is trading for some kid who has’t proved a thing.
Metsie, I think you should be more open to the idea of trading Dickey. It seems as if you think it’s Dickey or bust as far as pitching goes. Let me ask you if I have this right. You want to keep Dickey and spend $12 mil or so on an outfielder, right? What about this: trade Dickey for young players/prospects that can help for years and use the $12 million to sign another pitcher?
The way I see it is this. The outfield prospects via FA are not very enticing. The Mets also have a dearth of outfield prospects right now. If one can be had, along with other pieces at the expense of a pitcher, then you have to do it, because that pitcher can be replaced right now (FA) and also later, because what the Mets farm does have is plenty of pitching.
Obviously I’m on board with signing Dickey because I never really thought the Mets can get a huge haul for him and according to reports I got that one right. But you never know what the trade market will be for him once Greinke signs, right? Is it impossible to win with a formula of trading him and signing another pitcher? Should the Mets just not consider that as an option?
Where you goin to get a Pitcher as good as Dickey for 12 Million?
I’m open to trading him but I don’t think your going to get enough to make it worth it.
Even if you got EQUAL back your still left with the same problem we had from 2006-2008…
NOT ENOUGH PITCHING!
We had players and good ons everywhere else yet the Pitching wasn’t enough.
And to think that our projections regarding Harvey and Wheeler will definitly hold true is just wishfull thinking on everyone’s part.
Santana is gone at the end of the year if Dickey goes before then what have you got left?
Generation K the sequel, No Vet leadership on the mound and you will be putting the NYC Anvil on the chect of Harvey and Wheeler in what would be not much more than thier sophmore year in the league.
If I thought for a second they would spend the money elsewhere and get as good as they would if it was spent on Dickey then it would be one thing.
But if they won’t spend it on the myriad of available OFs that are out there today I see no hint that they would spend that 12 Mil on someone tomoroe or even FIND a Pitcher that would win 20 games for the price you would have payed Dickey.
So I’m open and said as much. Sign Dickey and let the calls come in and deal from actual strength.
You will get a better offer for a 3 year rtental on Dickey than you will on a one year and you STILL will get that 12 Mil to spend if you actually believe they will…
I personally don’t believe they will though…
They signed Wright for all the reasons people have suggested…
Ticket sales, Media/Fan Pressure, Mass Apeasement, which is why they are entertaining trading Dickey becauase they have spent more than they wanted to already and are still looking to catch cheap lightining in a bottle.
You know and I know they will never go get a pitcher like Dickey for 12 Mil and all that will be spent on 6 or 7 Hairstons and Bullpen.
Which won’t matter because on days Hefner and Schwinden go in to replace Dickey we will blow out that pen on overuse so they suck when the other guys are pitching as well.
Yes Dickey and Wright are treading water which is why if you really want to fix the OF quickly keep them and stay where you are and get your improvment by spending on the OF you need, that IS available and will be 100% plus to your team as it is now.
As opposed to the 10% Plus you MIGHT get if you make the trade.
And I don’t know that you have been listening but Sandy isn’t looking to get prospects for Dickey he is looking for two MLB ready players….
That means he is going to get average players at best which will never be enough to offset what you lost from Dickey and could just as easily be gotten via FA for a measly 10-15 Mil increase in the Payroll.
Average OF is easy to get so why trade value to get it?
You make great points, but after viewing our holes, i’ve gone over to the dark side (!) because IFfor an RA or a Niese, we can get back a Myers + a Perez ++, in Myers we’d get just about ‘as can’t miss’ as you can get and in Perez a starting catcher with promise–gotta do it.
Just over tape that ‘Mets get serious in trading RA Dickey’…KC / TX named…
First off your not going to get prospects for a 38 year old….
Second Sandy isn’t asking for prospects he is asking for MLB Ready talent which translates to Two Average or slightly above average which will not make up for the loss you took on Dickey or Niese.
You’re right as of today, but i think the market’s gonna ripen for RA over course of this week. So who knows? Right now RA to KC likely yields guys 2 – 3 yrs away (Zimmer, Bonifacio, DeShields Jr.), or maybe to Boston for Salty, Bogaerts, Bradley. But RA’s market may heat up.
Niese+ Flores, say, would bring in a robust package of top prospects, including Myers.
Nothing would ripen for RA better than extending him for 3 years at 12-15Mil per and guaranteeing a team that giving away MLB ready AND top prospects will be warranted for the next three years of a potential Cy Young 15-20 Game winner in thier rotation.
But if all they are going to get is a one year rental and the priviledge of paying Dickey a big contract that he has no reason to go cheap on since he will be able to bid up the price with other teams at best you get a marginal kid and maybe two average MLB players you will be looking to upgrade befgore the year is even out.
So yes he could get better offers but Time isn’t going to make that happen extending him will do far more to increase his value and offers than any amount of time or meetings will.
And truth is I doubt highly they would ever get enough to placate the fanbase for losing the first Cy Young Met since Gooden.
We have signed an awful lot of Cy Young winners over the years but the only guys to do it in a Met Uni were Gooden and Seaver (3 times).
well, the Mets are ahead of the curve then. 50 years, and they have 5? so 10% of the time a Met wins the Cy Young.
Well if they ha not traded Seaver we wouldn’t have waited 50 years to see a no hitter…
LOL
I so agree with you on the Haren thing. I was one of those screamers for a tread with Arizona and then as free agent before signing with the Angles. I have made a list of former top pitchers who we might get on the cheap.
Haren, Rich Harden – Missed last year but should be good to go at opening day, Jair Jurrjens – Sealing is still high for him.
I have a question to ask. ill anyone bring back a John Maine to be in the bull pen? and what about Randy Wells who has some ML success?
As for the outfield and catcher….. where is Joe McEwing when we need him
“As for the outfield and catcher….. where is Joe McEwing when we need him ”
Hopefully preparing to be interviewed as the Mets next Manager in 2014
He has the baseball smarts
. would deff make a great utility man instructer.
The full story on Longo still needs to be written as he has been hurt lately so we shall see plus Longo plays in a quiet, underwhelming city here in Florida where he doesn’t have to worry about the press like David plus when he reaches his 30th birthday then we can compare with David as is the story with Zimmerman who is always hurt, can’t throw and is built up the media, Z Pac, really?
Compare them when they all reach the the same amount of games, at bats, etc ; lets not project yet.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…
There is NO SOLUTION to the Catcher issue…
It’s the weakest position in depth in the league!
The BEST players/Prospects all avoid being made into Catcher due to the rigors of the position so that position has been sufferring for quite a while now.
We won’t solve the C position until Plawlecki is ready or we draft someone better and that doesn’t mean you have to play Thole while you wait but to think your going to trade a Rotation arm to get a good OF AND C who will equal what you lost is just foolish.
Forget the catcher there is no solution to that unless Posey makes it to Free Agency or someone else has a selloff the way the Marlins did with Piazza.
Fix the OF and the C position will not matter as much.
And Metsie gets the gold star for today!
I agree on that point. Good catchers are hard to find. But would it be so much to ask for a Vance Wilson type of a catcher? He couldn’t hot much but as catcher he was great and that on a team that had Ray Ordonez who couldn’t hit at all……
Too much to ask? No!
Too much to give away and lose the performance of a Cy Young Pitcher to get? YES!
Especially since the OFer you get is not likely to be enough if you insist on getting that Catcher as well.
If Dickey goes your rotation is:
Niese (Not Ace but maybe)
Harvey (Unproven and under pressure)
Wheeler (Unproven and under pressure)
Gee (Nice back end rotation guy but thats about it.)
Hefner? Schwinden? If your Lucky Familia or Mejia?
Keep Dickey and he can take the pressure off the Wheelers and Harveys and maybe even help them get better as someone to turn to.
Not to mention he avoids you having to start the Hefners of the world unless someone gets hurt.
By the time Dickey’s contract is done we should have some better prospect names to give a shot.
Fulmer, Montero, Tapia, Mazzoni, Urbina are already here and we will have two drafts worth of kids who might be at least AAA ready by the time Dickey is done.
Plawlecki should be ready by then to solve the Catcher position.
And we have a ton of IF kids who could be turned and traded into something as well.
If we really need an OF (and we do we need a Power Hitting RH OF) then just go buy the best you can find in the 10-15 Mil per range, sign him to a 3-4 year deal and hope by then the Nimmos and Lagares or some kid drafted in the meantime fill the CF and C roles you think a Dickey trade will get you.
And if they don’t package them for one player who does!
No reason not to trade multiples that don’t fit to get one that does.
It’s usually better than the trades where you trade a known good for multiples maybes or average at best.
agreed. if you have a solid defensive catcher (glove, arm, calling the game) that is a weak bat, you live with that, but you have to make up for it elsewhere in the lineup. You just can’t have a guy that can’t catch OR hit!
Which is why I mentioned Ray Ordonez. Was a sure out in the line up but we did get production out of C, 1B, 2B and 3B. So now we need a solid outfield bate and maybe we can live with production from 1B, 3B, and two of the tree outfield spots.
you really need to look at the production from the lineup, not the position. Basically write the names down, cover over what position they play, and see what they can do!
that is why in 2000 it did not matter that the OF was weak. When you have a dominant hiter at 2 IF spots not known for it, the lineup still has plenty of firepower.
Agreed.