7
2012
Mets Need Breakout Years From Davis, Duda, Niese And Others
An article by 
Ike Davis needs to pull it all together for an entire season.
Let’s assume for a moment – and this isn’t much of a reach – the Mets don’t do anything for the remainder of the winter. How then, can the Mets be competitive if another assumption that R.A. Dickey won’t be back?
A lot of things must happen, beginning with David Wright regaining his power stroke. If he does, and Johan Santana has a good year, that’s only the beginning. So much else has to happen in terms of their young players having breakout seasons. It could happen. It has before.
JOSH THOLE: I won’t be going out on a limb if I said Thole would again be the starting catcher. As much as there’s talk of the Mets needing a catcher, they have more pressing needs, such as the bullpen and outfield. Those areas must be addressed first. Thole made a good first impression hitting .321 in 2009 with his bat control, ability to work a count and go to the opposite field. Maybe he was corrupted by watching others with no plate presence, but his average has declined every year since and he provides no power. Even worse, has been his defense. If the Mets are to open their wallets after 2013 – that’s what they tell us so it must be true – they will address catching so this is Thole’s last chance.
IKE DAVIS: Davis was a beast in the second half and finished with 32 homers. He must learn to put two halves together, and it begins by being more selective at the plate. His power production could soar if he cuts his strikeouts and increases his walks. Davis can be dangerous, but has too many holes in his swing and goes into long stretches where he tries to pull everything. Since the Mets are void of power, any trade talk involving Davis is ridiculous.
DANIEL MURPHY: Yes, he can hit for average, but where’s the power? Unless Murphy adds power to his game, he’s as good as he’s going to be. That’s fine off the bench or in a platoon, but in today’s game he must have more offensive production. Perhaps dropping him in the order to put him in more traditional RBI spots might help. Ooops, I forgot … there has to be people on base ahead of him.
LUCAS DUDA: This guy is as strong as an acre of onions, but like Davis, he has too many holes in his swing. His patience is non-existent at times and he’s not a defensive plus. Left field might work out better for him than right. So far, Duda is all potential and little production. We know he’s strong enough to hit 30 homers, but we can’t say he’s a 30-homer player until he actually hits 30, or 25, or 20. So far, in three years, the best he’s done is 15 and 57 RBI. That won’t cut it.
BOBBY PARNELL: Will it ever happen for Parnell? He’s shown glimpses, but has never held onto the brass ring. The closer job was his for the taking. So was the set-up role. He spit the bit both times. At the end of last season, when Frank Francisco went down, Parnell gave us a peak what all the wonder had been about. He has the stuff, but his command and secondary pitches needs work.
JON NIESE: When teams call the Mets, Niese is the guy they want. He’s a hard-throwing lefthander with a reasonable salary over the next few years. Throw him into a veteran staff and he’d learn and blossom. That’s the assumption anyway. With Santana entering his last season and Dickey not certain of returning, Niese and his career-high 13 wins becomes the de facto ace. He’s not ready for that role.
MATT HARVEY: Harvey gave us a peak into what promises to be a bright future. However, only a handful of teams saw him and those that did now have a book on him. There will be adjustments made, so Harvey adapt back. Harvey impressed with his stuff and poise that belied his age. The path to greatness isn’t easy and often has pitfalls and obstacles. A lot was projected of Mike Pelfrey, too, if you don’t remember.
How well the Mets do is anybody’s guess, but if there’s to be any electricity this year at Citi Field this young core must stop languishing and start playing to its potential.
That is, of course, if that potential hasn’t already been reached.
About the Author: John Delcos
I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.
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The Mets have lead the league in “IFs” since the early 70s. IF this guy, IF that guy. Yes, IF Duda, Niese and Davis have breakout years, it will be fun. IF Parnell becomes unhittable. IF Wright has a good year. IF Thole learns to hit again. IF the outfield and bullpen gets settled……
Unfortunately, if you look back at the Mets’ record for the last 4 decades….IFs do not win you many games.
These are the Mets. When you take away the “Ifs,” you’re left with nothing. Quite sad when you think about it.
If IF was a fifth we’d all be drunk
Hi John,
In 2011 that was indeed happening – both the young players and the veterans were doing their share – then moves during the mid season (plus a rash of injuries) sealed our doom.
Last year we saw the team again make a run, however, unlike in 2011, it wasn’t so much a case of staying with the players we had as it was not getting them the help they so desperately needed (with injuries again sealing our doom).
Should the team stay relatively healthy, while I hope I am indeed proved wrong I do not think the Mets will start out strong, let alone retain it, due to the reasons that led to our downfall last season. I don’t doubt we can get the breakout performances from the core of players you mentioned but just like last season, this group of young players cannot do it all on their own, even with Santana, David and R.A. still on top of their game.
Sandy has created way too many holes with the moves he made in the bullpen, outfield, bench strength and speed at the top of the lineup.
I’d say Niese had a breakout season last year.
Jon Niese already was one of the top 30 to 35 pitchers in Baseball. A legit # 2 caliber SP and the best Mets homegrown SP since, err, uh, Doc Gooden or if you’re generous, Bobby J. Jones.
What sort of breakout does Niese have to have ????
He’ll never be Clayton Kershaw, I’m afraid.
What the Mets mostly need is
a) an outfield that improves on the combined (!) – 0.1 WAR it posted in 2012, i.e. goes from atrocious to mediocre
b) a bullpen that is average instead of below average
c) Ike Davis to play for a full season like he did since June ans
d) Matt Harvey making 30 starts at a level close to his 2012 performance
If that happens, the Mets are an 85-win team.
And it doesn’t take signing Bourn and Hamilton for the OF to achieve that.
Trading for Coco Crisp and signing maybe Cody Ross easily does the trick…
Ike Davis will be a MVP candidate… Book it! Problem is, you can finish top 10 and your team be like 30 games out of first place and about 17 if the WC spot
Well first off I disagree that Davis and Duda need breakout years…
Davis just needs to be more like 2011 (sans Injury) than 2012 or 2010.
All he really needs to do is get the average up without costing him the HRs he had last year which is quite doable and not what I would consider a BREAKOUT by any means.
.260-.280 and 30+ HRs is more than enough.
Duda can’t possibly have a breakout year because I don’t see them using him as an everyday LFer unless they get a power RH bat to stick between him and Ike. Platoon City for him and he is not the kind of guy who does well without consistent playing time. And if he does have a breakout year the only result will be he gets traded for something, sure won’t be here for our next playoff appearance unless Davis fails miserably.
Niese I agree with he needs to have his breakout year or the story will be all about how we should have traded him when everyone was hot for him and willing to give us pieces we really could use.
Thole is Thole and so is just about anyone else they could get so no point in even talking about the Catcher position.
Murphy had a fine year and I don’t get where anyone thinks he was ever a power hitter.
The most he has ever hit was 12 and that was two knee operations ago!
When his legs finally strengthen he will get back the leg drive that got him all 12 HRs he had (he had 6 last year) and 65 RBI last year as opposed to the 63 he had when he had all that power everyone seems to think he had so it really doesn’t matter if he scores himself as much since others are getting paid to drive him in. Batting 2nd in the lineup isn’t going to help his power numbers.
Parnell had a breakout season for him last year….We just happen to harp on the two or three games where he gave up a run(s) that cost us a game and two of them were due to IF errors that extended an inning he should have been out of with a scoreless statline. If he takes the next step to become a good closer it sure would be another big step forward though. Saves us from having to extend Francisco next season.
Harvey doesn’t need to take a big step just be consistent at what we saw in his short time here.He is not ready to take a step forward what you worry about is a step backwards. The Experience even if he faces some adversity will pay dividends later on.
Even if all those guys have better years the problem will still exist we are a Power RH Hitter away from being a contending force.
Our Lineup is still too lefty hefty and Wright and Davis are not enough by themselves to keep the RS train rolling.
We will have the Pitching to win some games (provided Dickey remains a Met) but those days when the opposition lights them up (and those days will happen every year) you need the bats to be able to make those games winnable, and I just don;t see it happening with a lineup that so far looks virtually the same even with improvement with the players we have mentioned.
They need that Power RH bat!
Well if Dickey isn’t back then there should be an impact player in return. He may not have MLB experience but he should be close.
yeah but who is wiling to give it to you? NO ONE!
Re-Sign the damn guy and the next time they come calling ask for even MORE than you asked for at the Meetings because they don’t have to worry about Qualifying offers or not getting Compensation and know the guy is theirs for the next two years after this one!
Hi Trs,
If you are thinking in terms of a not obtaining a proven major league player in return for R.A., the word “should” shouldn’t be used to describe the player or players we would get in return. More appropriate would be saying “could” be an impact player or “could” be close.
Don’t forget, Mike Pelfrey “should” have been one of our top starters being he was a number nine draft pick and pitched great in the minors. Lastings Miledge “should” have been one of our outfielders being a number 12 draft pick with equally impressive minor league numbers.
Remember, six seasons ago the Yankees were already picking out a space for Joba Chamberlain’s plaque in Cooperstown based on just 24 innings of pitching (maybe it was the mosquitoes that messed him up).
I would also be more optimistic on potential talent if this front office didn’t use advanced stats and curves to judge a player. That was the mistake Bill James made with projecting Lastings would have a career in the majors – apparently he and his people were not aware of Lastings’ ego and immaturity.
Jeff Kent was accused of the same thing in college…in Toronto….in NY…in Cleveland…he fell into the right environment in SF and put it together…
In 1994, Kent’s second full year with the Mets, he opened the season with a hitting streak that got nationwide attention: .375, eight homers and 26 RBIs in the month of April. He was unstoppable, jolting every pitch that came his way. Kent hit .292 that season, clearly establishing himself as a front-line player. But he finished with just 14 homers and never quite recaptured the magic.
“I was ridin’ the fast train,” he recalled. “All of a sudden, the people in New York — especially the media — wanted to know everything about what I did. The ‘how’ and the ‘why.’ And that’s what knocked the train off its tracks. Because I started to think, well, how am I doing this? When you’re in a zone like that, you’re not supposed to think. You just ride it out.”
Kent’s exasperation with the media was the genesis of his now- dubious reputation. Keeping more to himself, he became known as an egocentric, aloof player. “It’s tough in New York,” he says. “When you’re down, not many people will back you up. When you’re on top, they call you Superman or hero. I experienced both of those levels, and in New York, there’s no in-between. You’re either the greatest or the worst.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/sports/jenkins/article/Giants-Jeff-Kent-Not-as-Advertised-3320689.php#ixzz2EQ92jWNb
Davis: .264 34-40 home runs 100-120 rbi’s 90+ runs scored
Niese 15+ wins >4 era
Duda…………DUD!
Niese had a decent season but a 17 or 18 win season will be a breakout season. It would make him consistent for the entire season, not just much of it. Pelfrey had one decent season too–but sucked after it.
Pelfrey never had a season as good as Niese’s 2012 season.
3.40 ERA, .661 OPS against, 21 straight starts of 6+ IP to finish the season.
Basically that’s a # 2 starter type of season.
Not sure how much further Niese can be expected to improve on numbers like these.
I think Ike will have a good year. He had Valley Fever, even if it is a mild case, that can really take the edge off your game. Hopefully he will be fully recovered this year.
The Mets have a pretty decent list of starters on the mound, if they can shore up the bullpen and add a solid outfielder, we should be pleased.
Dick is on my mind, or face rather
Uranus is a dickey magnet…
The jury is still out for Ike Davis. He hit batted .201 pre – allstar game – hit .221 in July and .228 in September. He has a hole in in swing that you can drive a Mack truck through.
Sure he hit 32 dingers for the year but 20 of them came in the second half of the year when the Mets were out of contention.
Will he be a star? Well, that’s the real question and 2013 could go either way for him.
We all know he struggled for the first half of the season but the .228 in September is a bit scary. 25 k’s in 79 at bats – that’s a hole in the lineup regardless on how many dingers he got for the month (6).
People ask where Daniel Murphy’s power is. No mention of the 40 doubles, 3 triples and a .291 ba. I would take his contact hitting over Davis and his 32 dingers, 141 K’s and .227 average any day.