2
2012
Digging Deeper Into David Wright’s New Deal: Is It Actually a Bargain For The Mets?
An article by 
At first glance, the eight-year, $138 million deal David Wright signed early Friday morning didn’t appeal to many. Originally, reports indicated that the Mets wanted to offer a little less than $120 million, and the Wright camp started out well above $140 million, so I was very surprised that the two sides settled for such a high amount. However, when you dig deeper into the deal, it looks like more of a bargain than I, and many other fans, thought it was.
Let’s start off by giving you some background information. One win last season (1 WAR) cost teams an average of about $5.5 million. Now, that number is going to rise dramatically over the next few years as more multi-billion dollar television deals keep rolling in and teams have more money to spend. We have only really seen the beginning of what could be a huge increase in player salaries over the next ten seasons.
Wright over his career as a full-time third baseman (2005-present) has averaged about 5.5 WAR per season, including last year’s 7.8 mark. Bill Petti of Fangraphs did an experiment to predict the value of his contract in dollars using his projected wins above replacement. Here’s what Petti projected:
There are two things that we have to consider here. One, we don’t know exactly how Wright is going to decline. My guess is he will decline much slower than this data suggests, mainly because of the exceptional durability Wright has shown over the years, playing over 155 games in five separate seasons. The second is, as I mentioned earlier, the rise in price per win. Petti projects the increase to be about five percent each season. I think it could grow even faster as the television deal boom continues, which would mean that this deal will look better over time.
Out of curiosity, I wanted to look into how players who put up similar numbers to Wright compared in the twilight of their careers. For that, I used Baseball-Reference’s similarity score. I looked at five of the top players (three of them third basemen) based on these scores through the age of 29. Below is a chart depicting how these players declined from the age of 30 onward using fWAR (Fangraphs’ version of WAR). Here it is:
Unless Wright is the next Del Ennis, who at age 33, just stopped being productive and was out of baseball one year later, these projections look almost conservative compared to the other declines. Is David Wright worse than Scott Rolen? I think there just about on par with each other. Petti is using a standard approach to a player’s decline, but I think Wright’s decline could be slower than it is projected to be.
One aspect that I haven’t talked about yet, something that you can’t put a numerical value on but is certainly something to consider, are the intangibles Wright brings to the team. Those can’t be measured like wins above replacement, but when you’re talking about intangibles, Wright definitely helps the team. He is reportedly a great leader and role model in the clubhouse for younger players. And with the Mets getting younger, it’s important to have at least one steady veteran around. Plus, the PR factor that he will bring to the team now that he is a “Met for life” is incredible. (I would finally be comfortable buying an expensive David Wright jersey.) He is now the undisputed face of the franchise. Wright is everything that can be asked for in a role model and captain of a team. You can’t put a monetary value on that but regardless of what you think about the idea of having a leader or captain, it certainly at least adds some value.
Right now, it certainly feels like Wright got paid way too much in this deal, but there’s another side to it. When it’s all set and done, Wright may have been worth $20, $30, or even $40 million more than what he signed for if he stays healthy. So say what you will about the risk involved in terms of health, contracts similar players signed, or the finances of the organization, but this deal looks like it will be looked at very positively down the road.
About the Author: Connor O'Brien
I am a very young, but passionate Mets fan who has blogged about the Mets for three years. I hope you all enjoy the unique perspective that a fan like me can bring to the table. More about me... favorite Met- Johan Santana... favorite food- Citi Field burgers and hot dogs!... favorite musician- Mos Def... favorite Mets moment- the no-hitter of course, but I also attended Game 1 of the 2006 NLDS as well as Johan's three-hit shutout in late September 2008. Follow me on Twitter @UpAlongFirst
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Nice job, Connor. Must have took some effort to come up with the data and graphs. Who the heck was del ennis?
Del Ennis played for the Phillies when I was a youngster. I recall his name but don’t remember seeing him play. But for the purposes of this article, he was not a third baseman, he played the outfield. His production fell off at age 33, because at the time that was about the norm. Probably not comparable to today’s athlete in terms of conditioning, but his career stats are pretty good.
thanks hey batter, Probably should have went with jim fregosi instead?
Or to get more modern, How about Jason Bay? I would love to see his graph.
remember those cartoons when someone is driving along and goes out over the end of a cliff, and immediately points straight down?
something like that.
Yeah oops just realized that
Tremendous job on this. Appreciated the research and effort. +1
All things considered, I agree that history will look favorably on this deal. It has to be looked at also in contrast to what his contemporaries get paid like Zimm and Longoria. Taking all of that into consideration with the other intangibles you mentioned, this deal has considerable value and upside for the Mets. Not a big fan of team ownership, but Wilpon hammered out a nice deal here.
Great article.
Great job. I don’t subscribe much to WAR, but this was a very well though out, well written piece.
Are we really using such a FLAWED stat like WAR to value players contracts?!?!?!
Thats not how things work….When i go to the store to buy shoes…I compare them to other shoes…Quality,Style,Comfort and PRICE!!! etc etc etc…..as I and most people do with all products we invest our money in/on.
We grade on a curve we also SHOP on a CURVE…So does the MLB when it comes to signing players they sign them based on a CURVE so to speak….
Joe schmo paid only $20 for his allstar 3rd basemen he is younger than my 3rd basemen produces more runs than my 3rd basemen and chances are he will be more successful over the same length of that $20 deal as my player…So now I have a reference point I know the market price for my 3rd basemen.
Thats how you decide whether you have a bargain deal or not. Not by some stat thats ridiculous…I applaud your efforts but I STRONGLY DISAGREE!
The whole point of this article is yes, it may look too expensive now and may be slightly more expensive than other third basemen, but in the future, it has a chance to be looked at as a great deal. It will look better over time as the price per win shoots up.
Connor,
I understood clearly what you were trying to do…
When the Nats signed Jayson Werth they couldve made the same claim. After-all he was coming off of 2 MVP type season (2009 finished 17th,2010 finished 8th in MVP voting)
Som people want Gucci shoes not Tom McAnn.
Using the same analogy if you wear Gucci shoes the rest of you wardrobe better have a ROLEX watch and a a bunch of $2,000 custom made suits. The shoes are importortant and the watch are important but they are accessories to complement the suit. After all the suit makes the man, Metro or not.
LMAO….What about underwear can I buy all those things and wear Old navy or Fruit of the loom boxers???
When folks cant explain stuff with stats…they make up stuff that can never be proven
“Those can’t be measured like wins above replacement, but when you’re talking about intangibles, Wright definitely helps the team. He is reportedly a great leader and role model in the clubhouse for younger players. ”
Dont bring up the fact that in 4 consecutive seasons, Wright has declined in his 2nd half performance
2009 – http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2009&t=b#half
2010 – http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2010&t=b#half
2011 – http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2011&t=b#half
2012 – http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=2012&t=b#half
Signing Wright to the mets is sorta like Universal Studios signing Arnold to be the star in their movie End of Days.
Arnold sucked but got paid because he drew in crowds with good performances in the past
The movie sucked…and lost money….but they had no idea how to create a good movie, so they just signed a star to sell one.
NY = results oriented town.
If it sucks, we aint coming…
Great post.
Hi Connor,
Always appreciate the detailed research you put into your writings and enjoy reading them. And as before, I am not saying this to embarrass you but for one your age, you are way ahead of the curve in skill and a mature approach than many others much older than you are. So even though I disagree with you about the way you look at David’s contract, know that it is with respect and not in the manner in which Joe D. has often had to address.
As I wrote before,contracts are business deals in which lucrative offers are made with the understanding by the owners that they most likely would create more in profit for them in return. The contract agreement is about the business aspect of baseball and how it will yield a healthy return of an investment and nothing more.
Players, of course, are initially pursued by clubs that could afford them based on how they could help the team in victories and, in the case of some, the extra drawing power and increased television ratings having that marquee name could yield. But never is the FINAL AGREED UPON CONTRACT FIGURE AND LENGTH based based upon WAR. That is for the fantasy leaguers. The final contract offer is based on what the player can – or cannot – command in the open market and how much a club can afford to spend.
And the bottom line is when a team pursues a certain player, the owner isn’t interested in what his WAR stats show, he or she is going to ask to be told in plain English how much is the agent asking for, what they think they can they hardball the figure down to and if the agent would be amiable to a certain type of salary structure and/or bonus incentives, etc. – and if there are others that would cost less that could help the team just as well (which is basic economics and not a new revelation ushered in with money ball). And often, he or she would just say get him at almost any price for there is potentially more money to be made with a marquee player.
The Yankees deciding it was worth it for them to sign Andy Pettite for $12 million was ridiculous in itself but reflects the reality that certain owners look less at the roster budget ramifications in the overall scope of operating expenses than others.
And as we know, franchises without those same type resources can be quite successful with less expensive quality players (rather than top echelon ones) that blend well together as a unit and thus are less costly overall. That still has little to do with WAR as it is baseball people using their instinctive skills in evaluating the intangible talent one can bring which cannot be seen on a chart.
Then there is simply the case of the David Wrights and the R.A. Dickeys – players who have become symbolic icons for their clubs with the fans. Even if their value to the team regarding their performances by most of the fan base is overblown (thus the argument for many that the Mets would be actually better off trading David), owners also know what the effect of that illusion means not so much in wins or losses but in the box office.
“owners also know what the effect of that illusion means not so much in wins or losses but in the box office”
so how did the Mariners do after they traded the MOST POPULAR PLAYER in the history of their franchise? Ken Griffey Jr?
They replaced him with Mike Cameron, signed Suzuki, and had the 2nd highest attendance in baseball next to the Yankees
so how did the Cardinals do after they traded the MOST POPULAR PLAYER in the history of their franchise?
They replaced him with Carlos Beltran, and had the 5th highest attendance in baseball
Sorry bud….but the mets WITH David Wright and RA Dickey have had DWINDLING attendance
resigning them is putting bubblegum on a flat tire
Hi Just,
Remember that I was putting that into context of the Met situation and not as a general thesis. Other franchises haven’t created the disillusionment with the fan base that this one has in what it’s priorities are. They do not have it where the players feel the team front office not having faith in them hurt and/or kicked in the teeth. They don’t have it where it’s two top free agent stars openly question the front office’s sincerity in building a competitive team.
Even if the Wilpons’ are not responsible for the financial hole the Mets are in, they are certainly responsible for creating the financial hole that made it difficult for the average family to go to baseball game, etc. And they haven’t helped themselves with the double-talk given of their general manager and the outright dishonesty (i.e., the Reyes non-talks). No need to further delve into this point further.
So had things been different, had this been an organization that had been making attempts to field a good club in lieu of only being interested in signing “inexpensive” players the past few years then maybe if we made a trade that included David and/or R.A. fans might be upset at first but that all change with the team as it went on winning as you point out happened with other teams.
But this is not other teams. The Mets put themselves into so much damage control that the situation has become so much bad that this “illusion” many of us fans hang onto is about all we have got left to feel good about. You see, we never bought into the “illusion” that the team Sandy inherited was so bad hat it had to be dismantled and rebuilt in the first place but since that was the “illusion” Sandy Alderson as the spokesman for the Mets was giving us, we have no “illusions” about his “vision” going beyond saving the ownership from declaring bankruptcy.
Had things been differently, we could look at trading both these players with remorse but with enthusiasm at the same time. That is why this situation is so unique and cannot be compared to the circumstances faced with other players on other teams.
The mets have been in damage control mode since the late 80′s.
the wilpons aversion to criticism ironically creates more criticism.
trading away kevin mitchell because he was a “thug”
trading away lenny because he was a head-case
trading away david cone because he was a head case
then trading away jeff kent because he was a head case
the last time our farm system was churning out great players, our overly sensitive front started putting “character” ahead of performance.
the wilpons in 1987 and in 2007 and in 2057 will always put nice character guys that lil Timmy from Mineola can have on a poster vs a Barry Bonds
As a matter of fact, I’ll go on a limb and say that if the Mets had a chance to get a Keith Hernandez type player…
in other words a controversial outspoken 1B on the outs with his manager for being lazy, snorting coke in the dugout ( aka those “crossword puzzles” ) , and being hugely unpopular among teammates, I think they would pass.
If the wilpons were majority owners from 1980-1984, we probably never draft a ghetto kid from Compton, LA
or take on a former coke-head
or Kevin Mitchell, former gang-banger
the 1986 team that we love so much, was constructed with only winning in mind.
Once the Wilpons bought in at 50% in 1986…and started sticking their nose in day to day operations, this team has been absolutely horrible in drafting and development. That is NOT a coincidence.
Fred Wilpon being a former failure as a pitcher
Jeff Wilpon being a former failure as a catcher
Both of these guys have been trying to compensate for the fact that they both failed in sports
I can forgive the use of the horrible WAR stat since it’s about the only attempt at an all encompassing metric anyone can look up because the premise of the research is correct and the flawed stat itself was merely used to create the chart.
The premise being that a guy signed LONG term today will usually be a bargain salary by the time the contract ends because during the course of the contract, other FA players will continue to raise the bar on what top earners make.
The top Salary today is Alex Rodriguez @30M per year. He is the one guy who has pretty much owned the top spot in most years due to how early in his career he started off making the most of any baseball player. SO take him out of the equation as an anomoly and look at what salaries were in 2004 compared to 2012.
#2 in 2012 is Vernon Wells @24.2M per year
Thats roughly 2 mil more per year than the top two guys in 2004 Ramirez @22.5M and A-Rod @ 22M
Carlos Delgado was the 3rd highest paid player in 2004 @19.7 Mil
Jeter made 18.6M and Bonds @18M
A salary like Delgados in 2004 would be what the 15th highest paid player gets in 2012.
David Wright just signed an 8 year deal that comes out to roughly 17.25M per year.
That would make him today somewhere around the 24th highest paid player in Baseball
By the time his contract is over (the year 2020) I doubt he would even make the list of top 25 paid players.
Yeah Metsie,
You are my boss and I’m going to suggest you sign a player for 140 million dollars and the only data i’m going to bring to your office in order to try and convince you to spend 140 million dollars out of your companie’s funds is WAR. Forget the humanity of the player and what he brings to the game as an athlete.
Forget real life, just sign this guy based on WAR and F-War lol.
I have a feeling i’d be leaving your office not only be flying headfirst completely planking through the door i probably would lose my job.
As I said you don’t need WAR all you need to see is how the Salaries increase over an 8 year period.
As I also pointed out Wright isn’t getting paid more than 23 other players in the league.
Being the second highest paid 3B is not as telling as being the 24th best player in the league is it?
The bottom line is the guy who get the contract last usually makes more than the guy who signed earlier. And by the time that contract is at the end he will likely be the 4th or 5th highest paid 3B with no evidence that he will actually be worse than those 4 or 5 that get paid more than him.
Stop focusing on the stat used and focus on the premise that used the stat to illustrate the premise.
Players who get paid LAST get paid more regardless of how good they are!
Salaries always rise but performance doesn’t really matter when it rises. And whatever Wright gets today for his production some kid with LESS production will wind up getting just as much if not more 4 years from now.
Because Salaries are never based on production they are based on availability of players and supply and demand at the time he contract is agreed to.
In the 4 previous years to being a free-agent Delgado avg 41 HR and 128 RBI
In the 4 previous years David Wright has avg 22 HR and 91 RBI…
David Wright is the HIGHEST PAID 3B not named Alex Rodriguez
Adrian Beltre ( that guy everyone accused of turning it on only in contract years ) just won another gold glove, hit 36 HR and 102 RBI…and for the 3rd consecutive year placed in the top 10 of MVP voting
Like I said…
David Wright = Allen Houston in a Met uniform
Yeah and what makes you think Salary is based on performance?
Did Jason Bay or Jason Werth put up the same numbers as A-Rod did in 2004?
If you think the salary is based on what they did then it’s obvious you have no clue how business works, no concept of supply and demand and think everything works the way it does in something like Madden GM mode where the money the computer GM generates for a player is based on the stats in the program.
It is not what happens in reality!
I know Metsie,
and that is why I wanted Connor to know I had the utmost respect for his opinion even though I disagreed with it. Connor is still young and not yet familiar with the corporate world. But that is not an excuse for others who think executives and agents look at WAR as anything other than an inside joke – and I am sure that includes Sandy as well.
Sorry but you’re plain wrong. I think I talked about this awhile ago, but there was an article on Baseball Prospectus that had quotes from anonymous front office people saying that WAR is huge in evaluating players for front offices. Too bad I can’t find it again…
Agreed I was shocked to hear the guys on MLBN some former Gms all say that War is huge. I Still say that teams most likely Have their own version.
Is it the war you guys use?
I doubt it highly!
I’m sure there are at least 100 metrics that all attempt to do what WAR does and maybe 10% of them actually resemble Tango Tiger’s, Fan Graphs, Baseball Prospectus etc etc etc, calculations for it.
Hi This,
Now there, we all know by now the unreliability of things said by “anonymous sources” – or at least most of them.
WAR is not an economic tool in the world of sports business. I also doubt it’s analysis is a determining actor on which players to first pursue. Those decisions are based on both the instinctive judgement of the baseball person involved and the budgetary considerations of the chief financial officer. Whether a team has the money to pursue a certain player or decides to pursue two or three players it is based on who is out there and what the team can afford. That’s all it is and that’s all it ever was. If it is known that a few teams actually rely on WAR to help make their bid considerations, then all it means is that other teams might analyze WAR just to get an idea the amount those GM’s might be thinking of.
I also came across an article quite a while back where general managers were saying they also had analysts provide them with detailed saber facts not for themselves but to get an idea of the type of play some other club might be thinking. That is more the gathering of counter intelligence than intelligence planning.
Yes, if they think they see something in a player that others either don’t or have given up on, they might use him as the financially lower cost alternative. But again, that is based on baseball insight and how much or how little they think they can get the player based on his market value – which also depends upon how many others are in the bidding process.
And if the ownership wants to go after a big name for what he can also produce in terms of increased attendance, television ratings and merchandising, that CEO is going to look at projected marketing charts and figures, not one of WAR.
I really don’t believe even Sandy Alderson takes that methodology or the concept of money ball so seriously. When interviewed by FOX News last December, he was talking about the financial situation the Mets were in and how that limited them going after certain type free agents that he felt could help the club along with the risk of being burned by a long-term contract (citing examples of other teams though not Bay, Castillo or Perez). But when money ball was raised, Sandy smirked and gave a chuckled as he was uttered “money ball” as if he was either embarrassed or thought the question ridiculous. That could have been a Freudian give away.
1. Big names barely have an effect on attendance-http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/big-ticket-signings-dont-drive-attendance/ and I’m sure the same goes for tv ratings and merchandise. If a team wins, attendance ratings and merchandise profit goes up and vice versa. Teams probably have people doing studies like this so they know.
2. I agree about the moneyball thing. It’s not really a good term. Its basically a fancy way of saying logic.
Again, people who learned the game through saber paint everything with one broad stroke of a brush. Like I said before this rigidness is bad and completely leaves out the human and organic part of it.
Not ALL big names don’t increase attendance. Some do and some don’t. Some do in a BIG way too. In the Mets particular situation (not any other team’s cuz all situations are different) If the Mets shocked everyone and signed a big ticket free agent attendance will go up big time and I think you guys should be able to figure out why.
Forget the WAR metic….
If you had a GOOD metric for overall contribution of a player that was ACTUALLY all encompassing the graph he made would look pretty similar and the conclusion of the premise would be about the same.
Because the decline of a player is never as much as the affect of Inflation on paid salaries.
What gets paid 18 Mil today would get paid 23-24 Mil 8 years from now.
And the extra you get from that guy is not really worth the extra 5-8 mil per the one good guy who declined is getting.
Yes players decline but a superstar who declines is still a hell of a lot better than an average player in most cases.
So why does this logic not apply to Jose Reyes ?
In 2012 – he took a 6 mil PAYCUT, making only 10 mil
In 2013 – again, he took a 6 mil PAYCUT, making only 10 mil
In 2014 – he makes exactly what he made in 2011, 16 mil
now the savings are over…
In 2015 – he makes 22 mil
In 2016 – he makes 22 mil
In 2017 – he makes 22 mil
I get your logic, and I said the same thing last year…
Im just wondering how this just hits met fans now
DUH Reyes was a mistake….
Your attempt at getting REVENGE at the white guys and screwing up the Mets by making the same mistake two years in a row is not the answer!
We get it you wanted the latino guy…
So did a lot of us!
Doesn’t mean that because we passed on the Latino that we should get rid of the White guy who is JUST AS GOOD as the Latino guy was!
well when it was time to defend the logic of giving Reyes a 106 mil contract…
none of you folks on this site were talking about how it would look like a bargain 5 years from now
any reason why?
Your so full of shit it’s almost explosive!
Go back and read my posts regarding Reyes at the time and tell me with a straight face NO ONE claimed he would be a bargain by the time his contract was ending…
I made the same arguments for Reyes that I made for Wright against you guys!
But for some DUMB reason you guys decided to flip flop on what you BELIEVED back when it was Reyes we were talking all because the of the skin color of the guy we are talking about now is lighter!
It was DUMB to say it about Reyes and it’s JUST AS DUMB now to make the same claims about Wright that were made by the idiots who said it about Reyes!
This Race related tit for tat is just stupid and I wish you guys would stop it already because it hurts your credibility on every other issue that we will be talking about for the next few years!
‘This Race related tit for tat is just stupid and I wish you guys would stop it already…’
Amen.
Com’on SRT that at least deserved a THIS… no? LOL
O.K., I’ll give it to you, Metsie – b/c basically I think the whole argument about Latino vs white players is crap. It’s about talent and nothing but talent. No one should care about the nationality, least of all the owners and FO.
This Race related tit for tat is just stupid and I wish you guys would stop it already because it hurts your credibility on every other issue that we will be talking about for the next few years.
Wow, the day that Metsie, Srt and Trs are all in agreement, when was that Mayan end of the world date?
I have to join in here. Stop it Just!
We have about 18 days to live there TRS….LOL
Jessup ready to give up on Sandy if he doesn’t do something good
Sandy signing someone to a long term second gen contract
Fonzie agreeing with me on Pagan
Us agreeing here on this…
We are frikken doomed come the 21st!
Whats worse is some calendar from the currently latino part of the world predicted it!
LOL
Not trading reyes was a mistake
Not signing reyes after not trading him was a disaster
Not signing one of the draft picks you got for him was the cherry on top
If the mets would’ve traded Reyes to the Blue Jays for Gose + Travis D’anard ( neither are latino)
I can totally live with that
A top CF and top C
they flipped Beltran for Wheeler…
ok, I can live with that
then since we are rebuilding, lets trade Wright for a package, flip that package for Myers or Stanton…
awesome, now we have young CF, C, RF
Lets complete that and trade Dickey for Jurickson Profur or Andrus, move Tejada over to 2B
Now we have a young SS, 2B, CF, C, RF, with Ike, Murphy and Duda being the oldest guys
we have Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, and Gee as your front 4
sounds like a nice YOUNG core to build around
and NOW we have all the cushion on earth to sign the supplemental veterans we need to take the team over the top
Its not about the ethnicity for me…
its all about winning.
If Im trading for a catcher
I prefer Travis ( the white guy ) over JP Arrenciba ( the latino guy )
If Im staying internal
I prefer Centento ( the latino guy ) over Maron ( the white guy )
I really dont give a flying f*ck about where they are from
you need to reserve that sh*t for the folks who say Cam Maron can throw out 18% of baserunners, play DH for 30% of the season and still miraculously rank as a better catching prospect than the guy who throws out over 40% of baserunners, plays good defense, calls a good game and hits near .300
“sounds like a nice YOUNG core to build around”
Sounds more like Jessup last year when he was outrageously pushing Sandy’s Moneyball/Saberetric/No One over 29 Mantra as the only way to build a team…
SO I guess you have had a drink from the Sandy KoolAid and want to see him continue what he did when Reyes was the question and NEVER pay more than 5 mil to a player, Never sign a guy past 29 to anything more than a year and sell off all your best players to make the best MiL team you can while the MLB team sits in the basement and plays carpet to the rest of the league!
All because you didn’t get your Latino SS signed…
Once reyes went down with a bad hammy at the beginning of July, and came back obviously still hampered by it, his trade value took a massive hit. No team was giving up 2 top prospects for a speed guy that looked like he was about to head back to the DL every time he ran to first.
the numbers support it too. in the first 2 months back (7/19 – 9/20) he was not very good. .701 OPS, .280 BA, 7 RBIs and only 6 steals. He was pretty much a non factor that whole time. Both his power and speed dried up, certainly consistent with nursing a bad hammy.
Especially since he was headed to FA at the end of the season and was only going to be a 2-3 month rental. Teams looking to acquire help at the trade deadline for a post season run want a healthy player, not one just coming off the DL and/or is one race towards first to landing back on the DL.
He was removed from that Yankee game on 2 July. Unless the FO had a crystal ball and traded him before the beginning of July – once he was hurt that seriously hampered the chances of making a good trade after he got hurt. It’s not like he broke a finger and went on the 15 day DL. He had a hamstring problem that clearly wasn’t healed even when he returned.
Agreed and I think factoring in the low offers, the ticket sales of keeping him during a batting race and the thoughts of re-signing him trumped all of it.
Yes Metsie. It’s not about the metric. Replace WAR with whatever you want it doesn’t matter.
Well not really with whatever you want but any metric that could be considered an overall performance metric.
WAR is one of the worst stats going and yes some teams use some form of it but everyone who uses it has a totally different way of measuring and calculating it.
No one agrees on the one way of doing it so it’s a stats that should be avoided at all costs.
I understand why you used it and don’t have a problem as t’s probably the only metric thats publicly posted that at least claims to be all encompassing.
the WAR in this case was merely a benchmark for the purposes of graphing and the graph wouldn’t change all that much if the PERFECT METRIC for something that WAR claims to do would give pretty much the same graph.
It’s just that anytime someone mentions WAR, heads explode and I don’t blame them for that cause it really is an awful metric that unfortunatly gets published because no one is interested in fixing it or coming up with a better one.
“Yeah and what makes you think Salary is based on performance?”
and exactly why do you think players get paid their salary???
if Mr. Gritty Jason Bay did not perform in Pitts + SD + Boston, he doesnt get the 66 mil contract
If he performed in 2007-2009 the way he did in 2010-2012, Jason Bay would be playing for the Long Island Ducks
only over-grown fan boys who have a “connection” to players they idolize think differently
the wilpons have forever catered to those folks
this is why they traded Lenny Dykstra for Juan Samuel…a career 2B they moved to CF…
when asked why they did that move…
they said they wanted to connect with the booming Hispanic population in NYC
I am HISPANIC and that trade was one of the lowest points of my being a fan of this team. Lenny was my 2nd favorite player on the team ( after Straw )
It is insulting to think that we root for anything other than the front of the uniform
than again…Met fans were all over the radio complaining their team had a bit too much rice and beans and not enough apple pie…so…
-Rod made 30 Million…Is that in line with what he produced?
Jason Bay made more than Wright, did he get it based on outperforming Wright at anytime during his career?
Or did he get it because he was FA in a year where no one was really any good and everyone was bidding on the same lesser players?
A-Rod made 30 Mil in 2012 how much of that was based on his performance?
So in a weak year for free-agent LF, can you explain why Jason Bay got a 66 mil contract…Holliday got a 120 mil contract…and Ryan Ludwick got a 8 mil contract?
and David Wright earned less because he signed an extension in 2006 that had 2 option years.
I have the sneaky suspicion that if he never signed that extension…he would’ve been a free-agent in 2009…
and he probably gets a bigger contract than the 2 year 31 mil he earned in those 2 years
Ahh so you agree the only reason Wright got less was because he signed a few years before they did…..
David Wright coming off a 4 year stretch…from 2005-2009, at the tender age of 27, would’ve easily gotten the 8 year 138 mil deal…and I would’ve been ok with that…
thats a GOOD DEAL
David Wright getting that deal after the next 3 seasons
2010
2011
2012
at the tender age of 30
is more based on marketing than production.
Most teams sign players based on production
The mets are not most teams
LOL for a guy that is always foolishly saying that Wright was only good b/c the players around him made him look good…. heaping the praise upon Beltre is pretty funny.
Beltre more than almost anyone has been a guy influenced by the lineup he is in and the ballpark he plays in. Beltre when he hit in mediocre lineups and a tough ballpark in Seattle was much worse than Wright has ever been. Beltre over the course of 5 years in Seattle put up a .101 OPS+. That is barely league average and significantly worse than Wright was even in his worst season.
I also said Wright performed well when the rest of the team sucked, and sucked when the guy in back of him hit more HR than anyone in the NL in the 2nd half
Wright hit more HR in 2010 in BIGGER dimensions than he did in 2012 with SMALLER dimensions
and Beltre hit over 25 HR in 3 of the 5 years he was in Seattle, along with winning 2 gold gloves
Beltre in Boston was the ANCHOR of that lineup, he usually was the guy who hit with no protection in back of him
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=beltrad01&year=2010&t=b#lineu
Wright hit in front of one of the best power hitters in the 2nd half this year and SUCKED.
You have no logical explanation for that
bad back? nope
dimensions? nope
pitchers pitching around him? nope
care to explain?
are you done embarrasing yourself ?
Yep he’s so good you don’t want him anymore…
How did Reyes do in comparison to Wright?
You didn’t seem to mention that did you?
No, because they play 2 different positions and hit in 2 different spots in the lineup.
But comparing Reyes to Tejada might make more sense
Did we compare Wright to Beltran last year?
Of course not, that would be silly…
if we did…I think we all know who had the better year…
but we’re not going to…since Wright and Beltran play different positions, hit in different spots
But since we’re making retarded comparisons…
Guess who has more rings between Angel Pagan and David Wright?
Yep we do know who would have had the better year….
And now you are making the same case for letting Wright go as Sandy made for letting Beltran go!
I guess you are in total agreement with Sandy and his letting go of Reyes because your using HIS philosophy to justify letting Wright go!
SO you think Sandy did the right thing then and wish he would do it again now with Wright.
Are we clear now?
You agree with Sandy you like what he did with reyes and Beltran and wish he would have done it with Wright….
Is that accurate there JDD or do you only agree with that philosophy when its a white guy being talked about?
Genius,
THE ONLY right thing he did was trading BELTRAN
Had he gone ALL THE WAY, he would have traded Reyes….in June…when he KNEW that the Mets were NOT going to be able to afford him.
Letting Reyes go for nothing was absolutely the WORST thing to do
As I said before, resigning Reyes >>>> trading Reyes >>>> letting Reyes go for nothing.
Now that Reyes is gone…and there is a huge defensive issue at 2b as a result…
Trading Wright for a SS would help alleviate that issue.
Freeing up salary in RF, 3B, and SS would enable the mets to have the ability to extend and cost-control the young players they have on their team and later supplement them with the veterans they need to go over the top.
I’m thinking the Braves with Terry Pendelton and Sid Bream and Lonnie Smith and their relief crew..this is sustainable.
Not the 1996 Yankees surrounding 4 rookies with the 1992 All-Star team and acting like they are a home-grown team, thats not sustainable…unless you are the yankees
Letting Reyes go created a domino effect both in the lineup and defensively, this domino effect in my opinion warrants trading for a SS,
I believe trading Wright could’ve landed them that top SS and probably more
thats all
“Trading Wright for a SS would help alleviate that issue.”
no it would just move it to 3B instead….
SO the only right thing he did was tade Beltran….
Should have traded everyone else….
Ok Your a Moneyballer and thats all we need to know!
Aside from a short term option like Mark Reynolds, There were 2 other INTERNAL options to consider in Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores.
David is only getting you 20 HR a year…and if he is tanking in the 2nd half, Id rather pay Murph or Flores 410K to give me 10 mil in production.
Not a Moneyball fan, but im not a Pom pom waver either. I want the mets to win a WS, I dont care if Snow Wright and the seven dwarfs are on the field with him
So the guy who is “THE HOLE” at 2B is being moved to 3B….
As I said all your doing is MOVING THE HOLE!
You didn’t replace the guy that IS the hole you just moved him from one position to another and now have TWO HOLES the one at 3B and the new one at 2B!
Flores isn’t ready yet!
So you are not getting anywhere by mentioning him until he is.
If he’s that good then trade him to improve the 2B spot your so worried about!
Murphy at 3B >>>> Murphy at 2B
So nope, ur not creating a “hole” per say, you are downgrading 1 position ( 3B ) to upgrade 2 others.
The best of all scenarios WOULD HAVE BEEN
Wright
Reyes
Tejada
Ike
“you are downgrading 1 position ( 3B ) to upgrade 2 others.”
But your downgrading more at 3B than you are upgrading the other two positions combined because GMs don’t give you more talent than you gave away.
By moving Murphy to 3B you’d have a worse fielding 3B and would go from a Top 7 offensive 3B to a top 15 offensive 3B.
Why would you do that?
It’s adorable that people like you are still coming up with ways to chat about the Mets and find ways to have a new 3B. At some point you’re going to have to wake up and realize that contract was not signed in invisible ink and he’s the 3B.
I don’t see what any of that has to do with anything I said.
And actually bringing up Wright’s 2010 is a perfect example of how homeruns aren’t the end all be all. Wright’s 2012 was much better than his 2012 despite him hitting more HRs in 2010.
You want to laud Beltre and hate on Wright. I was just pointing out that Beltre isn’t exactly Mr. Perfect. Beltre was mediocre at best offensively during his time in Seattle despite hitting the “magical” “25″ HR plateau a few times. His average line over his full FIVE YEARS there .266/.317/.442/.759 is nearly identical to the 2.5 bad MONTHS (.258/.334/.416/.750) Wright had the second half of last year that you can’t stop crying about….and routinely cite as a reason to get rid of him. If Wright put up Beltre’s Seattle numbers he’d get absolutely slaughtered by fans
Adrian’s War in the last 4 years
7.4
5.6
6.7
thats an avg of 6.5
David Wright’s WAR for the last 4 years
2.5
1.6
6.7
10.8
thats an avg of 3.2
You probably want to pick another 3B to compare David Wright to…
Yeah but you added a year where he was hurt to the average and totally ignored the fact the WAR is trending UP not down!
Nice research on this.
IMO, most of these salaries are ridiculous but it is what it is. The market usually sets the price. Sometimes teams get a bargain and more than sometimes teams give out back contracts. Time will tell on Wright’s.
We won’t really know for quite awhile if it’s a “bargain” or merely a good deal for both sides that needed to get done. But I’m glad they came to terms with Wright. If you’re going to hand out the big bucks like that, Wright is certainly a deserving player. I’m glad they didn’t raise their initial offer to Reyes last winter as that would have been too risky. I think Wright’s skills have a better chance to stand the test of time, not to mention his health.
Winning will dictate what this contract is worth. Nothing else.
So … if the Mets lose a lot during the contract but Wright performs as well as he’s done over his entire career then the contract is not a bargain? But if the Mets win a lot during the contract but Wright tanks badly for most of it then it is a bargain? Huh? That is very convoluted and not a good way to judge the value of a contract.
I’d rather the Mets win and Wright does not perform to standards. Waste of money but it’s only about getting into the playoffs and winning, nothing else. When you win everything else is overlooked and you deal with it in context. But if you lose AND he does not perform well I don’t even want to think about it.
If Wright excels while the Mets are putrid for the next few years then it’s still a waste of money because by then it would’ve played out that the Mets did make a huge mistake after all.
And if Wright excels AND the Mets compete for the playoffs then you hit the lotto practically. This is the most unlikely case.
Well, I wholeheartedly disagree. The value of a contract is not dependent on whether the team wins or loses. Those are two different things. IMO, it’s extremely silly and illogical to link the two.
Money is never wasted if it’s allocated with good intentions and the player performs at least close to expectations. It is NEVER a waste.
Now you may waste a player’s talent during years where the team does poorly, but the money that went into the contract is not wasted.
well in that case i disagree again because in my opinion this was money wasted on an over-rated player who cant come up big when it matters, jogs in infield groundballs, stands at bat and does not run to 1B on dropped 3rd strikes, at 3B is avg and relies heavily on the defense at 1B because of his arm. He’s a good hitter but a lousy competitor. I may hate Ryan Braun but i’d give that kind of money to him before a Wright because Braun is a winning player on my mind and doesn’t spend more time patting opponents on the behind instead he kicks them there. That’s my kind of player.
This is a gigantic waste of money and was better served to acquire other ballplayers, preferably major league ready talent as the prime acquisition.
Well great. I disagree back. Because bottom line — when all is said and done — Wright is still one of the elite players in baseball.
He comes up big when it matters as often as the next guy, his defense is at least average — and MANY infielders rely on good first basemen to save them from errors — and year after year is one of the better offensive players in all of baseball considering the parks he’s played in.
“I may hate Ryan Braun but i’d give that kind of money to him before a Wright because Braun is a winning player”
Now that’s funny. Braun is a cheater who got off on a far-fetched technicality. And what gives you the impression he is a “winning” player compared to Wright? Have anything to back that up?
As much as you have to backup that Wright comes through in big spots as well as the next guy which is a complete falsehood and a complete LIE.
I’ve watched Braun perform, watched how he HR’d to lead his team into the playoffs in 2011, is known throught the game and his peers as a performer who comes up big in big spots. Wright is NONE of that and the money spent on him was a WASTE of money. I watch these guys and I know what i see, i’m VERY comfortable in my judgement of talent and baseball as a whole.
True Braun got off on technicality but i’m discussing performance on the field and he’s a PROVEN winner. Wright is a PROVEN choker.
Anyway nobody here is going to convince the other of anything you’re just lucky i wasn’t the GM because Wright would be an ex-Met by now and as long as the team replaced him with hard-nosed talented ballplayers who play the game with more substance than the empty, shallow padded numbers Wright provides then the team would be better off for it
“Braun is certainly no stranger to performing on the big stage and coming up with big hits when the Brewers need them. Just a week ago, Braun delivered a no-doubt, three-run, go-ahead homer in the bottom of the eighth inning to help Milwaukee clinch the NL Central title. ”
http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111001&content_id=25415430&vkey=news_mil&c_id=mil
That’s all i’m going to look up on the web cuz i’ve very busy and don’t have to prove anything as I’m very confident in my judgement of talent.
“Braun is certainly no stranger to performing on the big stage and coming up with big hits when the Brewers need them”
When/If David Wright ever gets that reputation then get back to me. Until then is a over-rated stat compiler that disappears when his team needs him the most. And i’m not talking about getting a big hit for a 4th place team in June.
Well I’ve watched baseball just as much as you and haven’t seen anything about Braun that makes him a “winning” player vs. Wright. In fact, the statistics say just the opposite.
According to Fangraph’s CLUTCH stat, for their careers, Wright is slightly above average in clutch situations and Braun is a LOSER:
Braun -1.10
Wright 0.03
Now who’s telling the lie?
And cheating certainly matters. I would be very reluctant to sign any player long-term who has come up dirty like Braun did. He’s lucky he signed his lucrative contract before he flunked the PEDS test. He’s also lucky he plays in a bandbox.
There is no ideal clutch state, but Fangraph’s is the best
i knew it.
Oh, because Fangraphs and some non-belief in clutch says so.
Got it.
You never stepped on a field in your life
I’ve stepped on many fields in my life. Have you?
And one big playoff hit does not trump a career of being a loser in clutch situations. Braun quite frankly is a loser.
actually Wright is more of a loser.
I’m confused. What exactly has Braun ever won besides a tainted MVP award?
No. Braun is the loser. His failure to hit in high-leverage situations and his failed drug test prove that much better than simply your opinion on Wright.
Hey Metro12! I’m not a Wright basher but to be honest Brauns high leverage numbers are slightly better than Wright.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=wrighda03&year=Career&t=b#lever,
Wrights High LVG OPS is 911
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=braunry02&year=Career&t=b#lever
Brauns High LVG OPS is 925
I know Braun plays in a banbox and got caught using his ass as a pin cushion but his numbers on the road are nearly the same as in Miller Park. He never tested positive before 2011 so who really knows when he started with that and if you take a look at Wrights arms when he’s not wearing a baggy jersey he’s packing some big arms. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s dabbled with that himself. Again I’m speaking objectively. I’m not on the Wright Bashwagon like a lot of people here. You would think with the lack of star quality players the Mets have developed in their history Wright would be a little more appreciated.
Fonzie, I suggest you take a closer look at the BR stats, and you’ll find they actually confirm Fangraph’s “clutch” stat which says Braun is pretty poor in high leverage situations and Wright is better.
What stat you use to define “clutch” is very important. In Fangraph’s case, they use a stat which compares performance in high leverage situations to how the player does in neutral situations. This, IMO, is the best way to assess clutchness. And Fangraph actually calls the stat “clutch” so there is no mistake what they intended it to define. The stat on BR which is analogous to that is tOPS+, which you’ll also find in the “Leverage” section (look at the end of the row). tOPS+ is also adjusted for park factors, the only fair way to assess two hitters who have played in vastly different types of parks. So then what we have then for tOPS+ for high leverage situations is:
Wright: 105
Braun: 97
This just confirms Fangraph’s finding. Wright is better than average for high leverage situations and Braun is a “loser” or does worse in such situations. Braun is actually below league average here.
Even if you look at just the raw numbers, Wright has a higher BA and OBP in high leverage situations than Braun does. The small edge Braun has in the raw OPS is solely because of SLG, the number most impacted by park factors.
It’s pretty interesting that Fangraphs and BR agree with each other here.
Fonzie, it’s also totally unfair to Wright to point fingers at him for PEDs. There is no evidence for it, and he’s always had big arms.
Braun, OTOH, was caught in the act, so there is no question that he did cheat. His entire record now is in question.
If you are doing steroids in any quantity necessary to gain a competitive advantage, you are most likely going to be caught these days as MLB’s testing program is pretty rigorous. Wright has never failed a test for steroids.
“If Wright excels while the Mets are putrid for the next few years then it’s still a waste of money…”
Not really cause how bad would they have been if they hadn’t signed him then?
Only thing he would have cost you is moving higher in the draft and I don’t take you as a guy who thinks sucking is a good strategy just to elevate your draft position.
Put it another way….
If it’s a waste to have given him that contract well then use him until the guy you thought you would replace him with (if you hadn’t signed him) comes around and THEN trade him for more kids.
Trading Wright for a package of players >>>> Letting Wright go as a free-agent
We are assured our spot in 4th place instead of competing for 1st in a few years
Package of playerswill never equal David Wrght!
Cause no GM is stupid enough to give you more than he is getting!
AT BEST you get the SAME spread out over 4 or 5 roster spots which means you have to play 5 players to get the same as you used to get from one!
So lets stop all this talk about packages because you never get more total in the package than you give away.
Sure you get a good player or two but together they never equal the guy you ggave to get him and more often than not everyone player in the package but one busts leaving you with one lesser player in the end.
Right I’m sure David’s play at 3B is more than enough to make up for the lack of a CF, Catcher, and 2B
Face it champ, if David looked and spoke more like Pablo Sandoval, we wouldnt be having this discussion, u wouldnt know his dad was a cop, his brother went to Virginia State, his idol as a kid was HoJo and Cal Ripken, he played with the Uptons and Zimmerman, his best friends were Super Joe then Uncle Cliff…
that connection with the fan base has ALOT to do with this contract
in itself, it creates a built-in double-standard, not anyone’s fault, but it is what it is
good teams dont care about that…
the mets have public relations and image above ALL ELSE
this is why they try so hard and always come up short
Hi Just,
Good actions make for the best public relations and that does not regard simply the players obtained to put on the field. Remember the tenth anniversary of 9/11 and the commemorative hats? The spin about Jose walking instead of admitting the Mets felt more confident in the long run with Tejada at short? The latest ticket gauging attempt to squeeze fans who want to attend the home opener? Sandy admitting that he was signing inexpensive players knowing they weren’t capable of producing (while the Mets were initially helping the media sell it as money ball)? And of course, the over-commercialism of Citi Field.
I think had the Mets been handled their daily affairs with a bit more integrity then they might have been able to trade David Wright without considering adverse ramifications from the fans. Yes, knowing how Sandy Alderson operates, I no doubt the Wilpons were concerned more about it adding to the public relations fallout. I know that even this sentimental fool (me) would have been very upset but at least seen the logic in it had the Mets not already had a credibility problem of their own creation.
Even us illusionists can accept reality under better circumstances….
The problem with this theory is that half of the NY met fan base already has the opinion that the wilpons are making this move ( like most of their moves ) to sell tickets, not win games.
it’s insulting to the intelligence and essentially self-defeating if its followed up with Andres Torres in CF instead of Josh H or Michael Bourne.
the mets do not have the money to supply them with a 25 man roster capable of winning games
the mets DID have several trade chips ( including wheeler and flores ) to make a very good attempt at filling 5 different holes in their team.
Trading David Wright for a package that brings back G-Stanton UPGRADES your offense as Stanton right now is exponentially better than Wright AND upgrades your outfield defense.
Moving a place-holder like Murph to 3B makes all the sense in the world.
Hell if you trade Dickey + Flores + Familia + Murph to Texas for Profur + Olt,
Trade Niese for Travis D’anard – straight up
Your squad now is
1B – Ike
2B – Tejada
SS – Profur/Andrus
3B – Olt
C – Travis
CF – Gose
RF – Stanton
LF – Duda
Rotation = Harvey, Wheeler, Gee, Santana
now you have the money to go after a Greinke, a Roy Holliday, a Cliff Lee or even a King Felix in 2014
Of course you take the hit in year one with fans getting to know the product, but a squad with that much talent will win games and bring in fans in years to come.
Instead we are locked in to mediocrity
“the mets do not have the money to supply them with a 25 man roster capable of winning games”
Which is why Reyes is outta here!
SO you approve of this now?
The article coins the problem with these huge sports contract, some nonner, who doesn’t even play a sport comes up with a over inflated projection of what could happen and now in the press he trying to make it look like a bargain for the NYM versus exactly what it is, overpayment of a primadonna sports player without any guarantees from an already declining performance–GET REAL! $138M/8 yrs and guess what … nothings changed, except now the NYMs have less capital to work with.
Okay. Thanks for commenting.
He seems a bit annoyed doesn’t he?
LOL I guess so
He should be because unless the team suddenly finds a wad of cash in srt’s couch this signing has the potential to be catastrophic to the team. And I remember when you came out here a few years ago and said that you heard that Wright got off HGH before his last appearance in the WBC and if that were ever true than his 2005-2008 statistics are blemished. But i don’t think we’ll ever find a real answer to that.
Or you could say if the don’t find cash the reason the team has none goes away because the Wilpons are forced to sell….
Doesn’t matter how much we are paying Wright what matters is what we intend to pay the guys around him…
If we hire the same scrubs we have been even Bourne will not be worth the money he would get.
Sorry meant Braun
Is that true, Joe D? You said here that you heard Wright took HGH? If so, how reliable was the source? I know you can’t name names, but was it someone who would really know these things? Or just someone prone to wild accusations and speculation.
Actually, I’ve stepped on many fields in my life. Have you?
Has it been confirmed that there is a no-trade clause in the contract? Because until that is confirmed, it’s still too soon to claim he will be a Met for life.
Also, all the charts in the world can’t prove this will be a good contract. All you have to do is look at Evan Longoria who is younger and better, and got a 10 year $100M contract. Longoria is a guy entering his prime and should be getting even better versus Wright who is, according to your chart, on the decline – so how does that make sense?
I just read at Metsblog where Wright has not even gone for a physical yet and is going tomorrow. Since when are contracts signed before a physical is taken? Is the contract binding yet?
It is not official yet until he passes the physical. That’s why Wright and the Mets haven’t commented on it yet, and there hasn’t been a press conference yet. They agreed to the deal, but its not official until the physical is done.
It’s pretty much a moot point, because Wright will be a 10/5 player sometime in 2014.
As for Longoria, he’s always hurt. What good is locking up a player who is always hurt?
Longoria has had a lot of injuries lately while wright generally plays every day so that makes up for the difference in talent between them.
He’ll be a 10/5 guy in July of 2014, so unless the Mets pull a Marlins and trade him after the first year of the deal he essentially has a NTC.
And comparing Wright’s contract to Longoria’s and deeming it not a good contract b/c Longoria’s is better (and technically Longo’s is 100/6, not 100/10) isn’t really fair. That is just one guy…and Longoria was signed a full four years before he was due to hit FA…so the situations aren’t really that comparable. If we are just going to compare him to one player we could pick other arbitrary examples like Crawford’s 140 mil for 7 years or A-Rod’s 10 year 275 mil contract…and use that to conclude Wright’s contract is a huge bargain.
Werent both players on the open market when they signed those contracts?
also, what was the performance of those players in the 4 years prior signing?
I have never seen a position player perform UNDER his career avg in the 4 years prior to signing and STILL get a contract like that.
You guys are acting like Crawford and A-Rod were putting up their CURRENT level of production PRIOR to being signed.
You cant get mad if David hits .295 with 18 HR and 94 RBI 3 years from now…but gets paid 20 mil a year
thats par for the course for what he is doing now