23
2012
Flores Vs. Nimmo: Who Is The Better Mets Prospect?
An article by Craig Lerner
I’m busy working on MMO’s official Mets Top 25 Prospects list. I should start rolling it out in reverse order beginning next week. As I near the completion of all my research and start to fit in all the pieces of the puzzle as best as I can, I’m finding it so interesting to see how much things have changed from just one year ago.
So many prospects have fallen out off last year’s Top 25, while many new rising Mets prospects replace them. Several players who were near misses last Winter, have had breakthrough seasons in 2012 and locked up spots in the MMO Top 25, while others saw their stock fizzle. While ranking all of these players, some of the decisions are obvious and easy, but then you come to some choices that are much more difficult to assess and require a more thorough examination.
There’s a nice battle shaping up for who the Mets’ best hitting prospect is between Wilmer Flores and Brandon Nimmo. The winner will get slotted in the No. 2 spot behind what we all know will be my No. 1 Mets Prospect, Zack Wheeler. I still have about a month before I need to make my final decision, but I thought it would be something that the MMO readers could debate between now and then. So I invite you to examine these two talented prospects and give me your closing arguments on both of them.
Brandon Nimmo will be 20 years old when next season begins, and right behind him is 21 year old Wilmer Flores. Both are very exceptional talents, but one already has over five years of professional experience under his belt and has sped through system like a bullet – that would be Flores. Nimmo, on the other hand, got his first real taste of pro ball in Low-A Brooklyn in 2012 where he posted a .248/.372/.406 slash in 321 plate appearances.
At 16-years old, Flores had already raced through Kingsport, Brooklyn and finished the season in Single-A Savannah in 2009. Between all three levels he posted a .307/.347/.468 slash in 308 plate appearances. But last season was the breakthrough the Mets had been hoping and waiting for. After dominating the Florida State League in St. Lucie, Flores was promoted to Double-A Binghamton where the young infielder held his own against much older competition and surprisingly his numbers got even better. Flores finished his 2012 season with a .311/.361/.494 slash in 275 PA for Bingo, and hit a combined .300 with 18 home runs and 75 RBI in 493 at-bats between both levels with only 60 strikeouts.
Nimmo has shown an enormous amount of patience at the plate in his first taste of regular playing time for the Cyclones, walking 78 times in 266 at-bats. But that was offset by a high propensity for strikeouts and the Cheyenne, Wyoming native whiffed an alarming 78 times. When Nimmo did make contact, he showed an ability to drive the ball to all fields and 28 of his 66 hits were for extra bases including six home runs and 20 doubles.
Neither Nimmo (1 SB, 5 CS) or Flores (3 SB, 2 CS) did much in the way of stolen bases last season, though Nimmo does have much better speed.
Deciding which one is the better prospects is a nice problem to have, because which ever way you go the Mets win. So while I deliberate over my final decision, have fun debating this among yourselves. Only one fot these Mets prospects can take the No. 2 spot. Which one will it be?
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Well, maybe both will make it, especially since we won’t have to hear they’re 5 tool players.
There’s a battle brewing between who is the better prospect between a guy who has yet to play upper A ball and a Wilmer Flores? Really? Since when? I never heard this debate..even though there is NO debate. This is just silly and I swear when I saw the title of this i knew who the writer was.
Thanks for commenting.
^ Awesome.
The comparison between Flores and Nimmo is inapposite. Flores is gaining momentum in the Venezuelan League and damn-near knocking on the ML door. He might be one of the hitches in the DW contract negotiations.
One can deduce very little from the small sample that represents Nimmo’s body of work. The ML roster is nowhere near the horizon.
I’d have to agree with you n this one!
I guess the next comparison’s will be about guys playing in Little League!
I guess your bracing us for what will be a terrible decision on your part? Nimmo shouldn’t even be in the top ten, let alone number two. Let him work his way up to a top spot the way Flores has. I’ve never heard Nimmo being compared to Miguel Cabrera the way Flores has. So far Nimmo is looking like Jay Payton Lite. I hope that next season he comes to play a full season and shows he can hit. And by hit I don’t mean walk.
Met Maniac: I have no real opinion on who is a better prospect because they are so different and at different stages of development but can you answer me this please:
“Let him work his way up to a top spot the way Flores has”
True or False: Wilmer Flores was listed as the #2 prospect in the Mets organization in December 2008 after 68 career minor league games with 59 of them taking place with Rookie League Kingsport?
True or False?
Flores batted .310, not .240 like Nimmo, true or false? Flores played SS at the time not OF, true or false?
So you equate Rookie ball Kingsport batting to NY Penn League batting?
You understand 1 level is different than the other right?
My point which I know you understood was – Flores was a top prospect after 59 games of Rookie ball. Yet you have a problem with Nimmo being a top prospect after NYPL games?
Well why don’t you tell us what about Nimmo’s league makes it more difficult to hit in than the one Flores is hitting .300 for power in….
You need me to tell you how stats in Rookie Ball are slightly less valued than stats in NYPL?
Should I also explain why AA stats are valued more than the Sally league?
You can only compare Nimmo’s ACTUAL stats to Flores’ based on levels. You’re not gonna compare Flores AA to Nimmo NYPL. It doesn’t make sense
If you’re asking me is Nimmo’s NYPL season more impressive than Flores’ 2009 Sally league season, I’m gonna say yes but with the caveat that Flores was younger.
They are 2 totally different scenario’s and paths to the bigs to be honest.
Yes! You need to explain to me and everyone why a kid whose stats suck vs lesser competition is better than a guy whose stats are good vs BETTER competition!
Knock youself out and put on a pot of coffee because your going to have to work pretty hard to find one without the entire site laughing at your explnation!
Do they matter much? Of course they don’t because they are compiled vs mostly scrubs who have yet to get promoted out of what is essentially a college plus league.
But if your not doing well then your certainly not a better prospect than someone who is a league above you and doing better!
Okay.
The NYPL average player hits .246/.319/.346, so Nimmo’s .248/.372/.406 is very impressive. You are talking about a kid who never had everyday baseball experience (coming from Wyoming where there are no HS baseball programs), and immediately performing at an above average level in the NYPL, where his competition is either older or more experienced.
But really my point is this: the reason why someone may look at Nimmo’s numbers and be more impressed is because of context. In a league where the typical hitter was .248/.372/.406, you have to adjust for that.
Personally, I think Flores is the better prospect at this moment. But You really have not an idea how the minors and development work if you are going to blindly compare Flores’ work in R ball, A ball and AA to Nimmo’s NYPL campaign without making the proper adjustments or looking at them in context.
You win the thread. Great post.
I’m not discrediting Nimmo, but let’s look at Flores’ numbers in context too.
In the Appalachian League in 08 the average player hit: .262 .331 .387
Flores hit: 310.352. 490
The average player in that league was 20, and Flores was only 16. Now that’s VERY impressive.
the reason they don’t bring that up even though they have the same access to those numbers that you do is that this is more about Nimmo being an Alderson pick. It’s that simple.
..or an Alderson regime pick. Gotta point that out or else they go off topic and make that the argument instead of the original point.
This year in the Eastern League, the average player was 24 and hit .260/ .330/ .392
Flores was 20 and hit .311/ .361/ .494
Now that is what I am talking about. Very good.
Hmmm Average is also IMPRESSIVE….Who knew?
Yes a kid who never had everyday baseball experience and because he hits as good as the average player he must be destined for the Hall right?
Please thats just such a rediculous statement….
Tell me whats the average BA where Flores is? .350?
Wilmer at age 17 had better numbers in Savannah ( a higher league ) against much older competition
Wilmer at age 18 had better numbers in St. Lucie ( a higher league ) against much older competition
Wilmer at age 19 had better numbers in Savannah ( a higher league ) against much older competition
Wilmer at age 20 had better numbers in Binghamton ( a higher league ) against much older competition
Nimmo is 20 and barely handling the NYPL
Wilmer is 20 and is handling AA ball very well
Not to mention WIlmer has had to learn 3 different infield positions in 3 years b/c genius in the front office doesnt know where to put him…AND HE STILL HAS BETTER numbers than Neemo
Let Neemo play SS, then 2B, then 3B and try to keep his numbers up
This isnt even a debate
Again – I said I think Flores is the better prospect. I think you and some of your friends above do not WANT to see Nimmo succeed though. That’s the difference. You don’t want Flores to be a better prospect because it’s good for the Mets – you want him to be a better prospect because it’s bad for Alderson.
Stats in the minors are great. I appreciate them but every situation is different. You and I do not know if Nimmo’s coaches had him work on certain things that may have impacted his performance. It’s the same thing with pitchers, just because they have worse minors stats doesn’t mean they are terrible – it could mean their pitching coach has them working on weaknesses more.
Here’s an example as to why I cannot hold minor league stats of Flores as end all be all.
An 18 year old rookie ball hitter hit .230 in 57 games with a .695 OPS in 2001 compared to Flores’ .310 with a .842 OPS.
That 18 year old turned out to be Robinson Cano. Now Flores could one day turn into a Cano type hitter, who knows – but I’m not gonna look at those two comparisons and say “Flores is gonna be so much better than Cano!”
Again let me make this clear for you – I think Flores is a better prospect right now. But I also think you’ve “seen” Nimmo in 79 games and you seem to have your mind made up that he’s no good.
Imagine if Jeter’s first 58 games in the minors in which he hit .210 were what decided his future?
Nimmo is 19 not 20.
The Difference is Flores did it at age 16! Nimmo is already 20! Flores should have been playing against HS players.
at age 20:
Flores had his first overall .800+ OPS season since rookie ball. He had an OPS of .855 at AA for half the season.
Miggy was 5th in the ROY voting.
It is time to start comparing Flores to someone else since the Miggy bus just left the station.
It’s Flores…shouldn’t be up for debate
I love how Flores has developed. What a season he had and he’s still hitting the daylights out of the ball in Winter Ball. Nimmo has been underwhelming so far. The walks are great, but we need to see some hits. Flores will make his debut next season. If we don’t sign Wright, to be honest I wouldn’t sweat it that much. I expect Flores to be a star when he hits the majors.
If you go by who is more ready, than Flores hands down. If you go by who will have the best career than I say Nimmo. It’s a choice between who is ready now and who will have the higher ceiling.
Brian, do me a favor and try to convey that to Fonzie.
what you clowns are trying to put over is that Nimmo’s potential down the road has the possibility to just as much of an impact as Flores who is more major league ready and that’s bad way to do this.
It’s not about saying just because a Timo Perez is more major league ready means he’s more of a prospect than, for example, a low a-ball Bryce Harper. It’s about being able to judge a Nimmo by the time he reaches the level of a Wilmer Flores. Nimmo may not even do that! He may or he man not.
So in essence you want to compare the fantasy of Nimmo being as good as a Flores..and that’s what it is at this time – a fantasy….to the reality of what Flores really is
And as for wanting to win and that’s what this is always about in the end..and not stupid statistics and walks…then it’s about Flores. He realistically can be a guy that can replace Wright and do a better job. you HOPE that Nimmo can be that good but let’s just wait and see if he can succeed at the minor league levels that Flores has.
And that being said makes it even MORE ridiculous and prejudiced what you’re writing about here. For a clown like you this is about your love of Alderson and sabermetrics more than anything else than reality and what’s best for the Mets as a team in regards to putting a winning lineup on the field sooner rather than later.
How did this debate over Flores’ and Nimmo’s prospect rating turn into an Alderson thing??
BMF….why must it always turn into this with you? You are really obsessed with this.
Actually it’s a trick bag type of question when you take into account that Flores has already proven everything that Nimmo hasn’t. And saying that Flores is the better prospect with any kind of affirmation is almost like cheating to me because of all we know about him already.
All I’ll say is that Nimmo as a high first round pick was a tremendous risk….a real roll of the dice. But sometimes thats how you have to roll.
Tell us why Nimmo is going to have the better career. I think Flores is going to be the same type of hitter that Edgardo Alfonzo was with maybe even more power. What have you seen from Nimmo that says he’s going to have the better career? I don’t think there’s a person in baseball that can say he’s going to have the better career. He’s as raw as anybody in pro ball right now.
Are you on crack? Alfonzo was a gold glover and a complete player. Flores is Daniel Murphy’s clone.
He said that he views him as a similar hitter, not a similar overall player.
Justin you should learn how to read before you accuse someone of being on crack. Way to make a total ass of yourself.
There are different ways to go about making a top prospects list. What is your criteria? Is it based on tools, performance, readiness, projectability, ceiling, etc. Depending on your preferences it could be Nimmo or Flores.
Hi Roxio, I always make my top prospects list based on tools, ceiling and projection. I subscribe to the John Sickles way of creating a prospect list.
Is there nothing else to write about? Your trying compare a near ML ready player with 5 years pro ball under his belt to a kid who not only just finsihed his first season at short season A ball but didn’t even play HS or College ball. Nimmo should be compared to guys like Phil Evans not guys like Wilmer Flores. Flores should be hands down the number 2 prospect in the system.
Ever make a top prospect list Fonzie? So was everybody nuts when Bryce Harper was ranked No. 1 in the NL over the prospects with more experience? Or Trout in the AL? You don’t know what you’re talking about. So where did you have Nimmo at the start of the year? Unlisted? Gimme a break.I urge you to make and post your own Top 25 prospects list complete with your own analysis. Was Flores your hands down #2 last year or are you just Monday Morning this?
Hi Craig,
Sounds as if you are talking not in terms of being ready but in terms of potential and who might in the long term have a more successful career and contribution which is quite a logical way to approach it.
No it’s not logical. This is probably the same type of thinking that probably justifies signing beer league players like Fred Lewis and Brad Emaus. These guys think that with their statistical analysis they can turn water into wine with players who are not major leaguers and they’re wrong. If you can’t hit major league pitching you can’t hit major league pitching no matter how much they try to rationalize these untalented player’s OBP.
And I think that’s kind of what this saber clown is trying to do. Just because Nimmo has a good eye he thinks that can translate into actual major league ready talent. And that’s why he’s attempting to compare him to an ACTUAL player who WILL make the major leagues.
I agree with Fonzie in this particular instance that Nimmo should be compared to his contemporaries. Wilmer Flores is not a contemporary of Nimmo, Flores had proved it already at higher levels while Nimmo has not.
Hi Bayonne,
I wasn’t commenting on the methodology Craig used or the conclusion he made, only that the concept that one having the more experience and being ready doesn’t make one the top hitting prospect in the club makes a lot of sense.
I do believe, however, that when it comes to making projections, one who observes often is usually the more reliable than one who doesn’t, as we can decipher from the attached. With that in mind, Nimmo needs more time to really be evaluated and as such it is hard to rank him one way or the other at this point. Perhaps comparisons should be made between players based on their level of development to date, not pitting rookie players against those with a few more years of minor league experience under the belt but against each other and so forth.
http://metsminorleagueblog.com/brandon-nimmo/what-theyre-saying-about-brandon-nimmo/
The best part about this rant is that you don’t even realize you’re siding with more of the “new school” thought with regard to prospects while you try to trash that school of thought.
New school relies on performance and information we can see in performance…. which is why many “saber” GMs were preferring college players instead of high school….
Old school GM’s rely on projecting “tools” and saying they project high ceilings in spite of what they see right now.
In fact your point of view Bayonne is EXACTLY why Billy Beane started to think the way he did. Because HE was the “tools” kid that OLD scouts LOVED. They projected based on what they saw in off-the-field activities what he could turn it into. But he couldn’t hack it. Which is basically responsible for how he handled young players in the book you hate.
I prefer to see performance also – but I don’t call people names for thinking that way. In your case though, I’d like to introduce you to kettle. Pot, meet kettle.
i have my own way of thinking when it comes to baseball. Sometimes it may be up for interpretation by one side, another time it may lean towards another. I really don’t give a shit how it’s interpreted. I’m traditional, i have my own views on what i think it takes to win and however double-talking, word-twisting shitbirds like yourself interpret it is your deal.
I think you need a bit of ExLax there dude because what you said is so full of it your about to explode…
NEW SCHOOL vs OLD SCHOOL?
And NEW SCHOOL is all about performance?
Complete and total bull!
OLD SCHOOL the guy wouldn’t get to the MLB unless he had great numbers in the Minors therewas never any he came up because he was PROJECTED to be good or because he had been in AAA for a year and now he gets promoted like they do in School.
The only difference in NEW SCHOOL is they make up metrics to say good things about a kid as justification for bringing him up despite the fact he doesn’t have the stats an OLD SCHOOL guy would wait to happen before he got promoted!
And why is that so?
Same reason why you love and justify every move Sandy has made…
MONEY, YOUNG CHEAP!
Note GOOD is missing from that list….
Thats NEW SCHOOL who needs good as long as he is young and cheap!
Lets make Metrics up that we can use to make BAD players look good and hope the world buys it.
Can people please stop saying that Wilmer Flores WILL make the majors, he might, we hope, we wish, but there is no way in hell that he’s played 66 games in double AA and your saying he WILL make the major leagues. By that logic you’re arguing that playing in a small sample size in a league, whichever league, means you can have continued success in that league. Lets test your logic, in 2009 the Mets had a player which in 75 games hit .311, hit 10 homeruns, 20 doubles, and had a .836 OPS. By your logic this is a guy who can have continued success in the majors, most likely making a few all star teams throughout his career, and possibly winning a silver slugger. By my logic he’s Jeff “freaking” Francoeur. Moreover, your saying he can not only keep up his level of production in double AA, but your also saying it will translate to the majors, yeah because that alway works out *cough* *cough* Fernando Martinez. Yes, Wilmer Flores is a great talent to have in your farm system, but this is the first year he’s had an OPS over .800 since he was SIXTEEN. Finally, yes it’s completely valid to compare two people who are in different levels in the baseball chain because prospects are based on POTENTIAL. Not their body of work, not how well they’ve done, but their freaking POTENTIAL.
Well Leo while you have a point… that point seems to be lost on all those who want to say Nimmo is better because they all feel he is a sure thing MLB player in time….
I just wonder how much of that has to do with who took him which is the only reason to ignore the .240 in A ball when compared to .300+ in AA.
“because they all feel he is a sure thing MLB player in time”
Metsie…..just who are ” they all”? Who is saying this?
Everyone who wants to put Nimmo ahead of Flores on the prospect chart!
I think saying a player should be rated higher than another, and saying he’s a sure thing are not one in the same. Only a fool would say Nimmo is a sure thing at this juncture. Sounds to me like you’re putting words in peoples mouths again…..but you’ve proven to do that well!
Neither player is a sure thing.
Flores is ranked higher in the org than Neemo
We all pray that they both turn out to be Hall of Famers who start and finish their careers as Mets
The End
But Francoeur DID make the major leagues, so it’s a bad example. You may say he’s not a good major leaguer, but Bayonne didn’t say anything about Flores being a good major leaguer – He just simply said he will make the majors. And at this point, I would be shocked if he’s wrong.
Oh okay, I see your point now. Nevermind my post above.
But anyway, how could Flores’ season be a small sample size when he destroyed minor league pitching in BOTH A+ and AA for 130 games? And not to mention, he was playing against older competition in both leagues too.
Anybody who knows Flores would tell you that he does have a lot of POTENTIAL, and could very well be a force in the middle of the Mets lineup for years to come. So, when you take into account his POTENTIAL, his age, and his production against older competition, he’s almost a lock to make the majors at some point.
Probably because Harper destroyed HS competition, and the junior college competition…
I’m just hoping Brandon doesnt turn into the Frederic Weis of draft picks for us
But at some point you have to take the PROJECTED tools for what they are (Guesses) and use some semblence of real data instead.
If it was a case where Nimmo was hitting .300 and Flores was hitting .240 at the levels they are currently at well then YES you might have some argument that both are in the same running because the tools of one didn’t translate to the stats as much due to the higher level of competition.
You cite Nimmo’s great Eye yet he strikes out a lot which I assume is one of the tools your using to “PROJECT” him yet Flores is a much harder K to get so doesn’t that show his eye is better than Nimmo’s at this point and better vs better pitching?
In the end it really doesn’t matter how many tools you have it’s how those tools translate that is important.
Flores plays the infield so his glove tool has to be better than that of an OF.
He hits for Power and Average and strikes out less so his Bat TOOL is obviously better as far as the data is concerned.
His Arm is certainly not a tool that is going to make him a better baseball player than an IF who really doesn’t need all that great of a arm to begin with.
So what tools could you possible see as being better to project Nimmo even in the same league as Flores at this point?
What is the upside Nimmo would have over flores?
Better Bat? Not apparent by any means…
Better Eye? Not apparent so far…
Better Power? Certainly not the case at all…
Better Glove? By what criteria does the glove of an OF outplay the glove of an IF unless the IF truly sucks?
Better Arm? How many people make the allstar game , Win ROY, Make the HOF based on thier arm?
Better Speed? Is a leadoff hitter really more valuable than the guy who drives him in?
I mean tools are great to have…But they only important to a player when the performance isn’t there as it just buys him a little more time to show he can do something with them.
Since Nimmo hasn’t done that yet there is no reason in hell he should be competing for the same prospect spot as a guy who has showed he can do something even if he has less tools than the other guy!
FMart had a ton of tools and how did he work out being our top prospect?
Metsie, reading your post made me come up with an interesting scenario. Instead of comparing Brandon Nimmo to Wilmer Flores let’s compare Brando Nimmo to Fernando Martinez instead.
I think it’s common knowledge that Flores is going to make it and be a major league player, how good he will be we don’t know. And even though they aren’t contemporaries who do you think will make it to the majors and stay there? Nimmo or F-Mart?
True Nimmo is in low ball and F-Mart has already tasted the majors but a lot of people are counting him out and I’m not. I bet there are even people here who would say it’s ridiculous to compare the 2 and that Nimmo will have a career and F-Mart will not. I’m not so sure about that.
Well the comparison would quickly turn into a conversation about health and nothing more if we did that.
FMart is a cautionary tale about cielings and tools being relied on too heavily and offsetting performance.
A guy who gets taken in the top10 of the first round always has a higher cieling than some guy taken in the 23rd round but that doesn’t mean he is a better prospect than Pujols who was that No Cieling player when he got drafted.
All this talk of cielings are the rantings of people who think they know the secret of baseball and know EXACTLY what is going to be a great MLB player…
If those guys were so smart or really knew the SECRET then players like Pujols and Piazza wouldn’t have fallen as far as they did.
And there would be no busts in the 1st round.
Thats hilarious since F-Mart just turned 24, and did pretty well after he was called up again in August.
Curtis Granderson was drafted at age 20, had his first cup of coffee at age 23….did not get crack the starting lineup til age 25.
Fernando hit .314 with 13 HR and a .814 OPS this year.
Craig where in my post did I say that Nimmo shouldn’t even be considered a top prospect? Tell me how saying that Flores right now is the better prospect is a knock on Nimmo. Flores at 16 was the same raw, high ceiling projection that Nimmo was at 18. It has nothing to do with the year Flores had.
Are you seriously trying to compare the tools of Harper and Trout to Brandon Nimmo? Tell me what you see that puts him in that class. Is Nimmo a top 100 prospect like Harper and Trout were?
Nimmo is a top Met prospect not a top 100 in baseball. And you have the nerve to say I don’t know what I’m talking about? I know more about the history of the Mets minor leagues than you could ever dream about.
Tell me what you see in Nimmo that would make him the 2nd best prospect in the system? If you knew anything about Flores you’d know he’s not the better prospect because he’s close to being major league ready. He’s the better prospect because he was the same raw high celing prospect Nimmo was that has already proven himself at the higher levels.
Did I say that Juan Lagares should be the higher ranked prospect because he has more experience? Did I say Den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis are better prospects? Give me a break. Write about something else. You have no clue about prospects.
Let me know when Nimmo makes consistent contact like Flores and drives the ball gap to gap like Flores does. Your post wasn’t about projections it was about who was the better prospect. This is not even debatable. I don’t even rank him in the top 5.
Wheeler
Flores
Montero
Mateo
Fulmer
Nimmo
At before the start of the 2012 season Flores was sliding faster than you can say Fernando Martinez. Nimmo was the best hitting prospect on just about every list last year including Mayo, Sickels and BA. Did Flores pass up Nimmo because he finally flashed some muscle? Or does he have to do it again in 2013? Meanwhile Nimmo didn’t get off to the best start either. It should be Number 2A and 2B.
Right now Cesar Puello is a higher ranked hitting prospect than Neemo
The only people that have him ranked high were folks reading scout PROJECTIONS based on their PERCEPTIONS of his tools.
Scouts also compared Lastings Milledge to Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr and Hank Aaron
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2003-05-24/sports/0305240245_1_tigers-strike-zone-bases
I want Brandon Neemo to be the next Hank Aaron just as much as the next Met fan…but right now Jose Fernandez is making Depo, the genius who ran SD’s draft’s, look like a COMPLETE idiot
In three years at Alonso, Fernandez, who courageously defected from Cuba at age 15, went 30-3 and struck out 314 batters in his 3 years of playing HS ball and was ranked one of the top HS pitchers in the whole country
We picked a dude who had arthoscopic surgery a year before he was drafted than during the draft workouts he could not complete some of them because he had tendinitis in the knee he had surgery in..
AND WE STILL DRAFTED HIM
and in his first year of pro-ball…he had sub-par production…
and this is the guy you think is better than Flores
LMAO
ok
Let’s forget the comparison and move to each player:
Flores: Might be a ready bat searching for a Glove////I believe he’s a Major league hitter before the end of the 2013 season—-I even believe he could win a job (Left Field?) in Spring Training.
Nimmo: YOUNG, YOUNG Hitter— forget the BA…forget the K’s—a young hitter who controls the strike zone and shows generous secondary power along with some primary pop can be a GOLD MINE—the walks and power define the upper end. Throw in the good speed and generally good grades with glove—-he could be a very nice player—He’s FAR away—-RUSHING would take two years.
My view is really based on your expectation.
It makes sense that Flores is more ready than Nimmo, but he’s also a little older and has been in the Mets org since 2008.
Potential? Who knows. We absolutely need to see more from Nimmo. So I’d have to say it’s Flores because he has proven for 66 games he can hit in AA. Nimmo hasn’t gotten there yet.
Agreed, that’s why you dont make prospect lists based on readiness the way 2-3 people here suggested.
That’s the worst way to rank prospects.
That’s like saying Timo Perez was a better prospect than David Wright because he was more MLB ready.
I guess the difference for me would be fielding then. If you’re going on tools and projecting them, Nimmo likely would get the nod. Flores’ fielding has to hurt his stock – especially in the NL.
It’s tough though, they are in different places and you’ve seen way more of Flores than Nimmo. If I was doing the list, I’d say Flores right before Nimmo
Does anybody care about Miguel Cabrera’s fielding?
When you win the triple crown, nobody even cares if he wears a glove in the field.
Are you trying to suggest fielding isn’t important?
How is it possible that you and Bayonne both accidentally showed signs that you believe in key aspects of the book Moneyball in 1 blog post?
Bayonne doesn’t like tools, prefers performance in young players.
Now you are minimizing defense?
What’s next? Alex68 suggesting bunting is giving away an out?
But, wouldnt you think it was fair to use readiness as an element? No one in their right mind would have said Timo is better simply because he is more ready. However, if you had two prospects that had similar abilities, even the one with the slightly higher ceiling could take the lower spot to someone who is more ready. Leaving the readiness out of the equation is to ignore something important: that player’s floor or the likelihood that the player actually makes it to the big leagues. I thought this was part of the rationale that people had ranking Harvey ahead of Wheeler. I don’t think this is ridiculous.
Do you?
This is all water under the bridge once we trade Wright for a package of prospects and Flores takes over at third base by the ASB and stays there for the next ten years. The best part will be if he gets voted in over Wright all those years.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1419315-if-david-wright-is-traded-is-wilmer-flores-ready-to-fill-his-shoes
Hmmmm .240 vs .300+….Let me see….
I don’t like the fact that Nimmo strikes out as much as he does. He still has a lot of work to do before he can surpass Flores as the top position player prospect. Nimmo will be the number one prospect once Wheeler and Flores clear the path for him.
As per who will have a better career I still give the nod to Flores at this point.
Flores.
While I can understand the argument saying that progress in the system shouldnt be a criteria, it does have to enter the picture. But even going with that argument and presuming that Nimmo has a huge upside, the fact that Flores is compared to Miguel means he much also have a pretty good upside. Plus, their ages are close unlike trying to compare a 24 year old to an 18 year old.
Brandon from 90210 will have a better chance of cracking the Met starting lineup in 2014 than Brandon Neemo
Weird post…shouldn’t even be a discussion at this point. Flores is beyond Nimmo in the development stage and although in ten yrs Nimmo might be the Mets best player, at this point it’s unfair to both to have this discussion.
Right now though, Flores may be the best hitter behind Wright in the entire Mets organization.
Prospects are ranked on their ‘tools’…their ‘ceiling’…but for every Bryce Harper, there’s an Albert Pujols, selected in the 13th Round by St. Louis. So, ranking prospects on their tools to me is pure speculation. Who the hell knows?
i’d rather rate a prospect on their performance over a couple of seasons, weighing competition, age vs peers, et cetera. And then, it’s still who the hell knows?
But at least, one has a basis for for both making the case and for being wrong.
Since there is so much uncertainty with Nimmo, I can’t see him being ranked higher than Flores. He’s a good talent, but he is a raw talent. He’s only played 80 minor league games against weak competition, and his high school didn’t have a team.
I totally get the upside argument, but I don’t think there’s enough of a difference between Nimmo’s upside and Flores’ upside, to make up for all of the uncertainty surronding Nimmo.
Flores is on a different level than Nimmo, and I don’t think this is even a debate.
BTW, where’s Petey Pete, and what happened to the MMO radio show????
I would love to hear Petey Pete’s opinion on this silly, contrived comparison
Petey Pete?
The same guy that same Cam Maron was the best catching prospect in our org !
camden maron seems to have a good bat…have no clue how good / bad of a catcher he is…but he also seems to have a little pop in his bat and ‘some’ speed for a catcher…
Catcher is not where you put a defensive liability.
This trend of forgoing defense and rating a catcher higher because he has pop started and ended with Piazza…
actually…thats a lie….
Piazza during his monster years was also ranked in the top 5 defensively among catchers…he just had a wet noodle for an arm
Okay, you know more than i do about Maron. He had 6 errors in 93 games–more or less on a par with other catchers in our organization. But i’ll concede to you. You must have seen him play.
A curious tidbit: when you punch of LV, you get last year’s AAA team for Toronto…and their catcher was Travis d’Anaud…now he’s got sweet stats!
I’m upset he’s not doing the MMO’s top prospect list this year because he did a great job with it last year, and he did an outstanding job covering the minors during the season.
Flores. But Nimmo should be right behind him. Flores’ bat is way ahead of nimmo’s ( for now) but Nimmo’s glove is miles ahead of Flores’ and he has more power potential and better plate discipline.
I watched Nimmo this summer. He definitely has a good batting eye, but I’m not sure he’s even a top ten prospect yet. Never seen Flores, but I’d say its a no brainer that he’s the higher ranked prospect.
For me it would be
1. Wheeler
2. Flores
3. Fulmer
4. Montero
5. Nimmo
Your list is close to mine Matt. I have Wheeler, Flores, Montero, Mateo, Fulmer, Nimmo
Hes been in the system 5 years and has rocketed through like a bullet (to AA) yeah like greased lightning. the fact that Nimmo is even the second best hitting prospect at this point shows that this system is still pretty barren.
I’m actually offended by this question. I really am. In my book, Flores is by far the number two prospect in the system. You know how Wheeler is light years away from all our pitching prospects?? Ya. Flores is light years away from all our “hitting” prospects.
The only thing Nimmo is better at than Flores at this point is that he’s the kind of player Sandy Alderson likes. The thing with Flores is that he is the kind of player EVERY GM likes. I think people forget how young he still is because he’s been around forever. Baseball in Wyoming is exciting as ever, but Flores was playing pro ball when Nimmo was looking to play ball at all. If the question is who will have a better career, then it’s all opinion. If it’s who’s the better prospect right now, then we face the facts, you go with the guy who’s hitting better at a higher level, closer to the majors, and has a bat that might force arguably the organization’s best developed hitting talent….out of town.
Wilmer for president.
I think the article speaks for itself. Flores looks like a better hitter. Nimmo a better defender, according to the article, Flores has better hitting stats, on the other hand, Nimmo has only played 1 year of pro ball.
[...] Flores vs. Nimmo: Who is the better prospect? Mets Merized Online [...]
Wilmer is David Wright replacement so i hope he does well.
The answer to this question won’t be known for quite some time, it could be 3-4 years. For now, Flores is closer to the majors and and has handled the bat extremely well in the minors. Nimmo on the other hand has yet to even show any signs of being a consistent hitter in parts of two years. He is already being mentioned in the same sentence as bust by his detractors. I thought those who ranked him over Flores and even Nieuwenhuis last year were getting too ahead of themselves. Nimmo will definitely slide down everyone’s rankings for 2013 and he won’t be on BA’s top 250.
Paragraph two highlights the difference between ranking prospects strictly on production vs. potential and how close they are to being ready to contribute at the ML level. Since Wilmer does not have a clear cut position (1b, 3b or dh) I think it lessens the excitement or expectations I have for him. For the last 3 yrs all reports have all indicated he is physically incapable of playing SS and now we keep hearing he cannot play 2b or OF. Do you want a guy who turns triples into doubles and doubles into singles playing 3b or 1b? Hopefully they dont ask him to audition for the Murphy-Valdy role where you defensively look terrible at four different positions and change spots every other day.
That would totally suck, but I can definitely see it coming. We’ve see this too many times before and this smells like it.
It’s like it is has become the teams operandus modus / philosophy since Jefferies irritated the vets with his attitude. Seems like with the last two drafts they are trying to bring in some guys who are truly middle IF’rs – if they dont work at SS they can move over to 2b.
Well, if you are torn between the two players, shouldn’t that mean Nimmo is the better prospect for the simple fact that he has a defensive position?
Defense matters guys. The fact Flores has played four different positions in three years means more than some of you are willing to admit. 57 errors in 375 games is pretty worrisome. Nimmo just got his first taste of professional baseball, his numbers in Low A-Ball only matter to the ignorant. It wasn’t about his numbers. Nimmo is a five tool player. Flores is a station to station player, has no arm and terrible instincts. He should be traded to a team in the AL where he might find a place to DH.
“57 errors in 375 games is pretty worrisome”
Not when you have played 4 different positions in 3 years it isn’t…
What’s worrisome is that immediately after year one there was talk about this guy is clearly not gonna be a ML SS. And the only drawback to his game is that he very slow footed, which doesnt really play anywhere except maybe C & 1b. And we have been told that he doesnt appear to hit for enough power to play a corner IF position. Generally if you cant cut it in LF, you are relegated to DH or PH… but usually this happens in the mid 30′s, not the early 20′s. Hopefully he can hit enough to justify playing a position on the field.
I saw Nimmo play at Brooklyn last year. I was not that impressed. I’m an optimist when it comes to top prospects, but he looked very overmatched. Maybe I caught him on a bad day. However, considering what I saw + the fact that he has very little experience playing organized ball in high school, I’d be surprised to see him in the majors any time soon.
I wanted to weigh in on this, but it’s not an easy question to answer. There are many things to grapple with and I totally understand the writer’s dilemma. But reading the comments here shows just how divided everyone seems to be. There is no consensus. Like somebody already mentioned here it might be more of a tie for best hitting prospect. My only contribution is to add this, by definition prospect relies on potential not what a player has done already. That’s why when you make a top prospect list, the best ones often rely more on a player’s ceiling potential rather than any accrued minor league experience and performance – especially if that performance was at the lower levels which is the case with Flores.
It seems to me that the Mets have a challenge with developing young minor league hitters who “own” a position in the field. Flores is an up and coming example of that…Duda and Murph are present examples. .300 hitting is nice yet in the NL the .300 hitter also needs to be able to play a position in the field. Not sure where the break down is here in our minor league system.
I’m not sure who the better prospect is – all I can say is that I hope Nimmo is given one OF position and fully taught how to play that position as least average. To me, winning teams are built on strong fundamental defense and Flores is lacking there with certainty just as other recent farm products have (Ike aside).
Nimmo may have a higher ceiling through this analysis.
If the Mets re-sign Wright, Flores wont even have a place on this team. That’s why his defense makes him more suspect than prospect.
So a prospects value is only related to his ability to play a position on YOUR team?
Isn’t he a PROSPECT if he is good and could fit a role for some OTHER team as well so he can be traded for something you DO need?
Who would get you more back in a trade right now?
Nimmo or Flores?
If the answer is Flores then there is your better prospect of the two!
How do you know who is worth more in a trade? Have you shopped them?
Have you?
If not then whatb exactly do you think is your point? Because I don’t know something and YOU don’t know something your right about Nimmo?
Why is Nimmo worth more?
Elaborate and explain without once using the word cieling which is usually a spot in any room NO ONE ever touches with a ladder to help them…
SO knock yourself out tell us why someone would give you more for a .240 hitter in A ball than they will for a .300 hitter in AA
We await your response.
For what it’s worth we have Flores #2 and Nimmo #3 over at the NYFS in our community poll.
Thanks for your comments everyone. It looks like some of you clearly understood the complexities involved in comparing the two, and all the things one needs to consider when ranking prospects based on the longer view. It’s easy to take 5 names based on the 2012 season and go from there. That’s how Fred and Jeff Wilpon decide their Sterling Award winners. But that doesn’t necessarily make them the organization’s top prospects. That’s the simpleton approach. I will consider your great feedback when I end up making my final decision. Again, thank you for your thoughtful comments.
So everybody who projects Wilmer Flores as being the better ballplayer is a simpleton? I know you are trying ever so hard to push your Alderson/sabermetric agenda with your rationalization of Nimmo’s potential but does anybody else outside of the Mets organization project this kid to have a major league career? I’m curious about that.
And like Hank said, Flores is the type of prospect that every GM wants. He doesn’t have to be a specific type of ballplayer that fits a certain GMs philosophy.
Also from the minors to the majors it’s always about winning. And right now the Mets have some young talent that in my opinion if the right parts are added can begin the foundation of a team that can compete for the post season. Ike Davis at 1B, Tejada at SS (or 2B), their young starting pitching and Flores is not far behind at all.
And no, I don’t see Brandon Nimmo making it to the majors one day and passing Wilmer Flores by. That’s what you’re hoping for and anybody who doesn’t see it that way is a simpleton to you i guess.
I said no such thing. Please dont put words in my mouth. I said the Wilpons way of doing things is a simpleton approach.
Unlike you, I will consider all opinions. That is why I decided to share my decision with our readers in the first place, something most others wouldn’t do.
I remain open-minded and not the closed off Neanderthal you and your CORE members choose to be.
Do me a favor and stay off of my threads. According to you, all I have to do is ask right? Don’t bother replying. I only choose to discuss things with people who can remain civil and speak respectfully.
I get it,
Your built-in excuse for Sandy’s horrendous job so far is already there – blame the Wilpons. But when Omar was here it was blame Omar and not the Wilpons. Got it.
What’s your problem? Jeez.
the double-standards met fans have in judging a GM
“I always make my top prospects list based on tools, ceiling and projection.”
+
” It’s easy to take 5 names based on the 2012 season and go from there. That’s how Fred and Jeff Wilpon decide their Sterling Award winners. ”
and yet you still say “I will consider all opinions”
- Craig Lerner
lol ok
My definition of a prospect is a player most likely to contribute maximum value at MLB level. Trade value is not primary but is a function of the above. As such, best prospect is one with highest ceiling with stick and glove. To me, Flores’ value is greatly discounted as he has no position that he has laid claim to and I fault the Mets development system for that.
I’ll say the better prospect would have to be Nimmo for the fact that he plays at a premium position. Flores, on the other hand is a toss up as to what position he would end up playing. Flores is the closest to ready to contribute at the major leagues. A big year by Nimmo can potentially soar him to AA, with an estimated arrival of 2014. Again, my choice is Nimmo.
The only reason Flores is a toss up is because the genius’ in charge have yet to decide where to play him, not because he has no position he can play.
And should they find a CF in the years between Nimmo coming up he will get a new position too so using thier position is really not a good barometer for anything regarding prospect status.
and some would say 3B is as much a skill position as CF is and some would say maybe even MORE skill is required.
It’s very easy to say that Flores is the better hitter, and he is, but I’m gonna keep a close eye on Nimmo over the next 2 years when he takes on the levels of Savannah, PSL, and Binghamton. I believe he can blossom to be a .285-.290 hitter should he refine himself at the plate, put some muscle on that lanky 195 lb frame (put on about 25-30 lbs of muscle) and use his patience to his full advantage. For his first pro season, I liked what I saw from him. If anybody paid attention to the Cyclones’s season, a notable trend was Nimmo being hot & cold. At one period, I recall Nimmo hitting below the mendoza line (I think it was .195), and then the next thing you know, he was hitting in the .280s. I’ve heard some compare his play to Hunter Pence. That .248 BA doesn’t tell me the entire story.
Well,it’s a rather unfair comparison. Flores is nearly big league ready,while Nimmo hasn’t played any higher then NYP. BUT… If Nimmo uses his tools and develops right,he’ll be as good as a player,if not better then Flores currently is. I think the only reason they were compared anyway was because of their ages.
If Nimmo wasn’t a #1 pick, you’d be confused as to why you’d even want to consider him to be Flores’s equal given his numbers. As it is, you’re just confused.
Both are very good prospects with a ceiling of above average Major League regular. Flores is far more advanced and one & a half year older than Nimmo. One is a RHH contact hitter who needs to draw more walks and has untapped power potential. One has an unusual ability to get OB but needs to make more contact and also has untapped power potential.
I like both but Flores is closer to the majors, so he gets the nod.
Of course, imho one could also make a good case for Michael Fulmer, Rafael Montero and Domingo Tapia in this conversation who all had very good seasons in A Ball and have legit SP upside.