8
2012
Niese Could Be A Valuable Trade Chip For Mets This Offseason
An article by 
Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger believes Mets lefthander Jon Niese could be a valuable trade piece for Sandy Alderson this winter citing that the team is deep in starting pitching and that they may need to deal an established player for multiple prospects in order to improve.
Throughout the industry, opposing clubs have taken notice — which makes Niese an intriguing figure in what could be a tumultuous offseason for the Mets. Baseball officials outside the organization believe Niese could elicit a quality return on the trade market.
“People would be interested in (Niese) because he’s a starter who some people see as a No. 3,” one executive said. “Some people see him a little bit like where they saw Gio Gonzalez last year.”
“You’re looking at about two or three prospects (for Niese),” one executive said. “At least.”
I could see Alderson strongly considering dealing Niese this offseason. He promised wholesale changes this offseason and we know that A) He has no money to acquire any significant or impact player, and B) He has repeatedly stated he won’t part with any of the team’s top prospects.
After some serious prodding during a WFAN interview, Alderson even admitted that those wholesale changes would come via trades and not through free agency.
Last week I said that the Mets’ three most valuable trade chips are David Wright, R.A. Dickey and Jonathan Niese. There is no team out there that will be banging down the doors for the likes of Josh Thole, Mike Baxter, Jason Bay or Lucas Duda. One dimensional players like that are a dime a dozen. So unless the Mets GM was blowing smoke, somethings gotta give and moving Niese is certainly something they will consider if they aren’t already.
Niese, 25, is currently sporting a career best 3.55 ERA and 1.170 WHIP, and in 165 innings pitched he has struck out 138 while walking 41 over 26 starts this season.
It would be the same sort of deal like Alderson’s protege Billy Beane pulled off when he traded 24-year old Trevor Cahill.
Personally, I would hate to see Niese (or Dickey and Wright for that matter) go. But who else are these trade chips he’s using to make these wholesale changes he talked about, that has so many fans convinced he was being honest and forthcoming about having a vastly improved product on the field for the 2013 season?
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
Last updated: 06/19/2013
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They just signed him to that deal which is very team friendly, why would they trade him now after a solid season? I don’t think anyone should be untouchable not when you have a team that sucks this bad. But unless your getting a huge haul, I wouldn’t trade Niese. I think Niese is one of the players we build around. I don’t think there will be any wholesale changes to be honest with you. That just doesn’t resonate as the truth.
ideally you want to keep and build around a guy like this. But, if you have 3 other gaping holes you can fill by trading him, and some SP coming up to replace him, looking holistically at the team you can make it better overall.
same basic concept as getting 3 good FAs for 8mill/each to fill holes vs. 1 superstar at 24mill, leaving 2 other gaping holes.
I don’t expect they trade him. But if they do, go all the way, and trade Wright and Dickey too (and murphy for good measure). because they would be tacitly admitting they were taking a step backwards to go into full rebuild (not retool) mode, and that the new foundation they are building around is still a few years from arriving.
so, guys in their 30s already next season, sucking down real payroll $s, will be useless.
since they also have a dearth of position prospects worth diddle (above A ball level), that might be enough for instant foundation (assuming, of course (and a big assume) that the guys pan out.
The team would take a serious hit to the rotation losing their top 2 starters (Dickey and Neise), and only RH bat, but if they were able to add some just about ready for the majors pieces back (Toronto’s catcher, a CF, maybe a 2B, etc.) they could easily be better in the very near future with those guys and the pitching talent perculating to the top of the minors.
Hey, if you are going to have a few more rocky rebuilding years, might as well have a lower payroll, and all young guys to be interested in!
Anyway, based on recent history, Neise should be extremely valuable as a trade chip, and factoring in lefty, age, contract, he is likely going to get the best return of anyone on the team.
I don’t think trading Niese would mean having to blow the whole thing up. For giggles sake, you trade Niese to Toronto, which gets you JP Arencieba, a mythical OF prospect that is almost ML ready and a BP arm. Throw in Murph into the deal if that makes you feel better. If you re-sign Wright and Dickey and take Niese’s salary to sign a FA SP (back of the rotation type, possibly a recovering from injury type), you’ve upgraded C and the BP, possibly upgraded the OF and down graded the SP some. But there is SP prospects that are close. So really, you would be trading from a position of strength to build up a weakness.
Blowing things up may get you a ton of talent, for sure, but I don’t think trading Niese equals pushing the nuke button, a la Ronald Reagan’s puppet in that Phil Collin’s video.
I guess I could see a situation where they trade Niese but to me that means they believe that Wheeler is ready. Trading him and then having to replace him with some 4M scrub would be counter productive IMO. We need to build around pitching and defense not trade it away unless we somehow have a surplus of it.
Oh, I’m with you. I would prefer not to trade away Niese. If I had a choice, I’d trade RA. Yeah, he’s pitching great and who knows how long you get out of a non-traditional knuckleballer (could be 5 more years), but his contract is way cheap, he could possibly win the Cy Young (talk about a boost to trade value) and he’s a good character guy. I’m sure he would net 2 solid pieces or more in trade. As mentioned below, Niese is young, has a very manageable contract and is good. I would not like to see him traded. (But if he was, it’s not the end of the world, assuming you get a Gio like return with prospects).
Yeah, I guess gun to the head if we assume RA is going to ask for the moon (which I don’t think he will) I would rather trade him. I would think that Texas would be hot (excuse the pun) for RA and we most likely could get some game ready prospects for him.
I agree. You dont do this unless You strongly believe Wheeler is ready. But is a handful of starts in AAA enough to make that determination? Also, we must get back a big-time CF near ready prospect.
I dont see it as counterproductive at all nor do I see it as them being dependent on Wheeler being ready.
Remember last offseason before re-signing Niese Sandy was said to be shopping him to other teams who were interested in acquiring Gio Gonzalez. And he wanted the same kind of return but at the time teams werent as high on Niese as they are now.
The A’s received FOUR of the Nats top prospects 3 Starting pitchers and a catcher(Brad Peacock, Tom Milone, Derek Norris and A. J. Cole.). Three of the Four were major league ready. Trading for prospects is always risky business but thats why the Wilpons made Sandy,DePo,Ricciardi and Ricco the highest paid Front office in the major leagues.
The team cant be built through free agency and drafting players and waiting for them to develop takes years of losing and acquiring top draft choices who may or may not pan out. Niese is a good pitcher not a great one so if they can get a considerable return on him I’m all for it this team has too many holes.
Worst case scenario we trade Niese we can just bring back Young and Pelfrey for cheap(Sandy loves cheap). And waiting in the wing we’ll have Wheeler,Familia, Mejia, McHugh and I’m sure Sandy can get back more pitching prospects in a deal for Niese.
I like Niese and I dont want to trade him but if I can get a return like the one the A’s received for Gio i’m all for it. Besides Niese contract is much more team friendly as well (25Mil to Gio’s 42mil)
The 3 real trade chips are Dickey, Wright and Niese, basis the return they would bring you. I still want to see the Mets hold on to him, basis the friendly contract, his age and his ability. Now, that being said, the strength of the Mets farm system is the pitching, so trading Dickey or Niese would make much more sense than Wright. And, if Niese gets you something near what Gio got the A’s, you certainly have to consider it.
Rolling with Dickey, Santana, Gee, Harvey + someone is not a good rotation, but considering Mejia and Wheeler are close to getting the call up next year, and there is also Familia and others in the mix, it would be worth it to field offers for Niese and see what it brings back.
I honestly think Neise would get a much better return than Wright in a trade this off season. Just MHO of course.
and yeah, if you are going to create a hole to fill from the system, it needs to be pitching (unless you think Flores is ready to take the same leap that Alfonso made back in the mid-90s)
Sign me up for another Alfonso! That would be wunderbar.
My god.. IF that PieceOS even considers this he should be stripped of his medal!
First of all, why trade a young serviceable Left Handed for “prospects”? He’s pretty much still a prospect with Cy Young potential down the road and to even consider doing this is insane.
This FO needs to save face, i don’t think something like thiswill be done. Just be on the lookout for minor deals with oft injure players, small trades for scrubs, kinda like andres torres trade last year and a He had another good day article.
I agree this trade would be pointless unless you could actually get guys that are proven as he is to play other positions of need and someone else was ready to take his place. In other words a need for need trade with someone like Toronto as NJ said, but that’s highly unlikely anyway.
For Who? Arencibia??? Nope thank you.
I agree Alex, it would have to be for a whole lot more than him. The guy will actually be 27 years old already and posted a .279 OBP this year. I am not that impressed.
So shoot for D’Arnaud. I think the names thrown out there so far are just for conversations sake. But obviously, IF Niese were to be traded, he better bring back a haul. That should be the point of the whole shabang.
Different story of course and I get what you are saying.
I give them Thole and Murphy for JP
Heck I would throw in Familia…
Heck I would throw in Familia… and wheeler for D’arnaud and Henderson alvarez.
Done…. I’ll pick up wheeler in Buffalo and drive him to Toronto Myself!
How about we just convince them they are ready to compete and trade them Dickey and keep Wheeler and Familia and go out and dominate?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm……… You’re onto something there… The CORE, Almost, Almost Salute you….
Who else can bring about real substantial change from a trade perspective?
Niese is obviously and easily their most marketable player. A young, left handed starter with a team friendly contract who has shown statistical improvement in every year. Niese should only be dealt for a Gio type package…The problem is when the guy further develops and becomes even more consistant, and he will, you’ll be kicking yourself in the can…he can be that good…
I’m in agreement though with those who say that if you deal him, you might as well admit you are in full rebuild mode and deal Wright and Dickey as well…
I want young MLB ready players. Fill the hole at C, I agree you can deal Murphy in this scenario as well, and you’ll need a ‘true MLB caliber ready 2nd base prospect, replace DW at 3rd if you deal him, and give me outfielders…Real prospects whom are ready, Not this ‘He needs a bit more seasoning type of guy’…
If our FO and ownership aren’t going to spend money-and they won’t-tear it apart, until these “albatross contracts” expire..No more half-assing it…We’ve had that long enough….
It would take a major league ready catcher who can hit a ton and then some. Niese still has upside and is already producing at the major league level.
I’m a fan of Niese, but I try to see the big or grand picture, too. My rule of thumb is that any time you trade a good quality SP, you have got to be able to counter his absence with a hitter that will bolster offense to replace the loss of D, or you diminish a team’ ability to win. There is no reason to doubt Niese has the potential to be even better for the next three-four years.
So I wouldn’t say it’s a matter of inviolability, just that it would have to be for a pretty special player; I’ll do it for Mike Trout
If reports are true and Alderson has about 15 million to spend I would go after Michael Bourne as a FA if I could get him for 12-13 mil a year and then hold out Niese for TOP prospects that can fill other holes. In Burned you have a leadoff hitter with pop and a great defensive centerfielder. He would be a game changer.
I don’t want no… Michael Bourn…. sing it with me. I don’t want no… Michael Bourn…
Guys he is not what we need. He will be an overpriced 30 year old CF that gets lots of steals and caught stealings and this might be the first year he will ever finish with an OPS over .750. Is he an upgrade? Yeah… but that’s a lot of money to invest in someone like Bourn. If you want speed and defense why not trade for Gomez?
COCO CRISP?? Lmao!!!!
Coco I was viewing as a one year stop gap to hope that Kirk or DD could take it permanently and there is no way I would take him for even money. Thus if I could choose Coco at say 4-5M or Bourn at 4/40? Which one you choosing?
That being said I have been campaigning for Gomez for months now. He would be the perfect fit for the short and long term and is very attainable.
Coco will make $7 million next year…. No thank you!!!
Alex, read buddy. I said no way I am taking him even money. Unless they are taking FF or sending cash I wouldn’t be interested either. My point is if you could get him for 1 year at 4-5M wouldn’t that be better than signing Bourn for 3/30+?
No. He sucks IMO. he’d be another andres torres with a little more Pop and a little more speed maybe? No thank you!
Still missing the point. Is Bourn up to 35M better than him?
Carlos Gomez 27: .252 .301 .468 .769 with 16 HR 30/35 steals 36 extra base hits in 364 PA. Cost for 2013: 3rd year Arb after making 1.96M this year.
Michael Bourn 30: .283 .354 .406 .760 with 9 HR 38/49 steals 41 extra base hits in 629 PA. Cost for 2013? Rumored at least 10M for at least 3 years.
TRS, would it be fair to say that Carlos Gomez is your FA man crush? Lol
Actually he is not a FA, that is what is great about him too. We could IMO easily trade one of our guys like Mejia or another young arm and get an answer for CF for now and the future. It just seems to easy to me. Again, he had almost the same amount of steals and extra base hits in about half as many PA.
O_o MEJIA for Carlos Gomez????
The Brewers 4th outfielder for one of our top pitching prospects?!?!
Thats the mindset Sandy has brought to Mets fans smh
Again, built around those guys. I will tell you what though, if a guy like Gomez who’s stats are comparable to Bourn in half the PA is a 4th OF? You either have a loaded team or an idiot for the manager. Now granted to start the year he was splitting time with Morgan but that’s not the case anymore.
WHoa whoa whoa!!!!!!!!!! Mejia for carlos gomez??? Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!! Sorry TRS, but no!!!!!!!
Alex, if I have to trade one of those guys to not see Andres Torres or other scrubs of the like running around CF for the next few years? I have to pull the trigger. I just have to make sure which one of the Fulmer, Mejia or Familia and like I am willing to trade to get it done. Do I think it should cost a top 10 in your organization prospect? Nope. However, the FA market is barren and will be vastly overpriced so it may take that to get a young CF. One thing I did notice is due to him being a super2 he actually only has one more year of arbitration so Mejia for just Gomez would indeed be too much but that isn’t saying you can’t build around that foundation. Maybe they have a catcher, bullpen arm?
Heck if you get creative enough you could have Corey Hart roaming RF beside of him.
maybe a mchugh type instead?
I am not sold on him yet, but sure. Why not? LOL.
I don’t know.. Sounds like you wanna temper with the future.. Mejia can get us something better than carlos gomez…
Depends Alex, what is Mejia? Many said he was really just a bullpen arm but the problem is that he did not adjust well to bullpen life.
Again, if you could get Gomez and additional players in a deal built around those two names? It has to be considered. Besides you would still have the organizational pitcher of the year (forget his name, lol), Fulmer, Wheeler and your boy Familia. For CF we got uh… Kirk and DD.
Wright and Dickey can really help any team to make the playoff or even win the world series. They are at the top of their value right now, and can bring at least two A+ big league ready prospects each. I would trade them now and bring them back when they hit the free market.
Why are we always talking about trading the only decent talent we have?
How are we going to build a team if all we have are unknowns?
Trade Turner, Duda, Bay, Frank Frank, Ram Ram. Leave our rotation alone.
While I understand your point, you couldn’t get Hojo back in that trade. Much less anything usable.
Hawk, it is a philosophical question really.
A debate between treading water (keeping the few good guys, but not being able to add enough to them to put you over the top)
or, converting those couple of guys into multiple pieces that are on the upswing, effectively taking a step back to build a broader and stronger foundation to move forward with.
easier said than done of course.
Yeah you noticed that too right Hawk?
Why Because it’s easier for them to think if they give away thier best player that they are going to get something good. Usually what happens is you get three not so good instead!
LOL the usual suspects all thinking trading Niese would be a good thing I see….
Here is my prediction….
If we trade Niese it will be the trade everyone talks about for the next 25 Years whenever the question of what has been the worst trades in Mets History is the topic!
It might even take over the reigns from the Fregosi Trade!
Who is saying that trading Niese would be a good thing? The usual suspects? I think I agreed with Alex in that instead of Niese I would choose Dickey first. Hopefully they don’t need to trade either.
You did read the article here didn’t you?
You did read the replies?
I know you want to close your eyes to what is going on because you think that is what a GOOD MET FAN does, Hide from events and hope for the best but you should at least open them long enough to read the articles you respond to and figure out what it is exactly your debating here on a daily basis!
“LOL the usual suspects all thinking trading Niese would be a good thing I see….”
Who are the usual suspects?
Read the thread and I’m sure you will figure it out…
Wait for the others to get here and it will be even more clear!
I will comment on only one though NJStuck….
While he is for it he at east is making the case that if your going to do that then you should trade them all and just put this team out of it’s misery…
They do that Sandy will get fired before his contract runs out and there will be no more excuses for deconstructing the team left to make and the only way to go from there is build!
No, it was stick that said if you trade Niese, you might as well trade Wright and RA. I said if Niese were to be traded, that should NOT mean you have to trade away everything else. Again, would all depend on the haul in return, if the players were major league ready, etc.etc.
Now, if trading Niese got you 3 Matt Harveys, but they were 2 years away, well you might as well trade Wright and RA to get some other good prospects that were 2-3 years away. But if, for arguments sake, Niese got you Rosario and Dexter Fowler, well, you just filled two holes at the major league level, so no need to sell off Wright and Dickey.
No use NJ, Metsie is gonna blindly group people. It’s what he does.
AHh your correct I should gie Stick the credit and go back to thinking you don’t know what your talking about! LOL
Go back to where ever you feel the most comfortable. Just get your facts straight. Helps add some validity to your myriad of posts.
Yeah I feel more comfortable thnking you dumb!
I’ll go back to that! LOL
I do find it odd though that your onboard with trading a potential Cy Young winner….
How does that fit into your KEEPING TALENT approach?
You should try reading the discussion. LOL
It was proposed as if you had to trade a pitcher I would rather trade Dickey than Niese and even to do that you have to make sure that a guy like Wheeler is ready to step in. Personally I would rather not trade either.
Yep trading AWAY talent is the solution here!
Makes a ton of sense right?
Lets get rid of a potential Cy Young Winner, first one since who Seaver here? Or did Gooden win one? I forget now!
Yep thats logic and those us us who will complain when that happens are not FANS!
Yeah right…
Still missing the point:
” if you had to trade a pitcher”…
Familia, Mejia, not a Cy Young or guy who has a good shot to win one if he takes the next step!
The premise is just another case of you guys looking for someone GOOD to trade because you can’t fantasize about what the kids we have can get you mostly because of your own self doubt and not anything to do with the actual worth of the kids themselves!
So, if Brian Sabean called and said “Posey for Niese” you’d hang up the phone?
So, if Brian Sabean called and said “Posey for Niese” you’d hang up the phone?”
if he does that he should be checked for drugs immediately..
Metsie, again as usual you are still missing the point. We were talking about trading one of the current starting pitchers and if we had to we would trade Dickey before Niese. I give up buddy.
Yes guive up because you fail to see what I’m saying is I DO NOT ACCEPT THE PREMISE of HAVING TO TRADE a pitcher at all!
You don’t trade the guys who give you the wins you have hoping to get more with lesser pitching!
“There is no team out there that will be banging down the doors for the likes of Josh Thole, Mike Baxter, Jason Bay or Lucas Duda. One dimensional players like that are a dime a dozen.”
Joe D. — I understand most of the names on your short list. But Mike Baxter? Are you missing a few things this guy can do? He is hitting .285, has a .390 OBP, a .444 SLG, runs the bases well (5 SB in 6 attempts), and plays a helluva defense. He’s not a superstar but I don’t think he is just good at one thing. This kid can play the game.
Good team is he a starter or a 4/5th OF?
The Mets not just need to be good to get to the post season, they need to be great to get it, b/c the will have to beat the Nats and Braves, teams that are very good and improving. It would be great to have Wright and Dickey on the team for 2014 (you can forget about 2013) Still they need to fill the holes at second, catcher and the outfield, and i think they niether have the money nor the player in the system to do it.
The Braves are a solid team and were my pick to do damage this year. However, are they really improving or holding status quo with Chipper leaving and McCann and Hudson getting older and some of their pitching prospects not taking the next step?
TRADING NIESE IS A FOOLISH CONSIDERATION ESPECIALLY WHEN SANTANA YOUNG, GEE & PELFREY ARE ALL QUESTIONABLE FOR NEXT SEASON. AS THE ONLY VIABLE, YOUNG LH SP ON OUR HORIZON HIS VALUE TO KEEP IS MUCH GREATER THAN HIS VALUUE ON THE MARKET SINCE IT’S HIGHLY UNLIKELY HE’LL GARNER A TOP HITTING PROSPECT ON LEVEL WITH A HARPER OR TROUT
AS I SEE IT WE’D BE MUCH BETTER OFF WELDING HIM INTO THE MIDDLE OF OUR ROTATION AFTER FIREBRANDS HARVEY &WHEELER PRECEDE ICONIC DICKEY AS A PLANNED ROTATION OF
WHEELER
HARVEY
DICKEY
NIESE
WITH GEE/SANTANA AS ??? TO FILL #1 OR #5 AS SPRING DEFINES THEIR BEST SPOT.
WITH FRANCISCO ALREADY CONTRACTED AS NEXT SEASON’S CLOSER, THE REMAINING BULLPEN SHOULD BE COBBLED FROM THE POWER ARMS NOT MENTIONED ABOVE IN FAMILIA, MEJIA, GORSKI, EDGIN, CARSON, HEFNER, McHUGH.
AS PARNELL ALONG WITH OTHER NON-MENTIONED CAN GET PKGD TO BRING IN NEEDED POSITIONERS NOT AVAILABLE IN-HOUSE JUST AS NATIONALS & BRAVES STITCHED TOGETHER THEIR PENS BY REASSIGNING THE SURPLUS FROM THE AA & AAA ROTATIONS OF THEIR RESPECTIVE FARM SYSTEMS SO WE CAN MAKE EXCELLENT USE OF OURS IN A SIMILAR FASHION.
I’M RELATIVELY CONFIDENT PARENELL ALONG WITH 1 OR 2 OF OUR LESSER KNOWN “PITCHING SUSPECTS” PKGD ALONGSIDE A MURPHY OR A TURNER COULD CERTAINLY GARNER A SUPERIOR ANSWER TO ONE OF OUR REMANING QUESTIONS @ CATCHER, 2B OR OUTFIELD.
THE BIGGEST KEY TO ANY SUCCESS IS IF BOTH DICKEY & WRIGHT ARE SATISFIED WITH THEIR EXISTING 2013 VALUE, ALLOWING NYM TO COMMENCE THE LARGER EXTENSION VALUES IN 2014 AFTER THE BAY & SANTANA CHOKEHOLD CONTRACTS(41M) ARE DISSOLVED.