16
2012
The First Cuts Are The Deepest
An article by 
Yesterday, was a big day in at the Mets Spring Training Complex at Digital Domain Park as the team made their first round of cuts and reassigned 13 players to minor league camp. The move left the Mets with 42 players in camp which will eventually be pared down to 25 before Opening Day.
There’s no telling who if any of the players cut will be back again in 2012, but let’s take a look at them and consider their place in the organization.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis: Captain Kirk never really got a chance to strut his stuff in St. Lucie thanks to a strained oblique. Injuries continue to plague the promising center fielder and for now it looks like he’ll be heading back to Buffalo for a third season at Triple-A. At 24 years old, he’ll have to reestablish himself all over again and hope that something opens up in Flushing. A solid season by Andres Torres will keep Nieuwenhuis in the minors until rosters expand in September, but a slow start by Torres could hasten his arrival.
Matt den Dekker: Dekker got a small sampling of rubbing elbows with his major league counterparts, but he is below Nieuwenhuis on the depth chart and is at least two years away from being a legitimate option. He’ll have to master Double-A Binghamton, where he batted .235 last season, before he even becomes a factor. He struck out 91 times in 234 at-bats in Bingo, and he’s not goping anywhere until he turns that around.
Josh Stinson: The Mets have been pushing Stinson through the minors and he got a small cup of coffee last September, but I’m not sure why. After posting a 3.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Binghamton, the right-hander was promoted to Buffalo where he hit a brick wall. Stinson started 13 games and finished with a 7.44 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 61.2 innings pitched. He walked 33 batters while striking out 31, and somehow he was on the September callup list where he continued the same disturbing trends.
Jenrry Mejia: The one-time, top pitching prospect of the Mets continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery which wiped out his 2011 season. He’s not expected to pitch in games until late May or early June barring any setbacks. He may have to reestablich his value to the organization all over again before we’ll see him in Flushing again.
Juan Lagares: He burst onto the scene last season with a .349/.383/.500 slash in 505 plate appearances. And he actually got even better when he was promoted from High-A to Bingo. The former shortstop plays the outfield exclusively now, and he oozes with potential. You wanna bet we’ll see Lagares before Nieuwenhuis this season?
Reese Havens: Oh man, not again… What is it with this guy? Seriously though, I feel bad for him because the talent is there, but he continues to deal with back related issues. He’s still ailing and until that changes, there’s really nothing to talk about here. Get better, Reese.
Wilmer Flores: Slip, sliding away… Slip, sliding away… You know the nearer your destination, the more you keep sliding away. Paul Simon must have been thinking of a player like Flores when he penned that song. Did anyone see how awkward he looked in the field? Is anyone surprised he was among the first cuts? Still young, but he’s lost a lot of shine.
Armando Rodriguez: Why was A-Rod Lite even added to the 40-man roster to begin with? Yeah, I’m still trying to figure that one out. I’d bet the ranch he would have never been invited to major league camp if he wasn’t on the 40MR. Of course I don’t own a ranch, so there’s that…
Robert Carson: Okay so I was wrong when I said Carson had a real shot to be the second lefty in the Mets bullpen this year. Hey what the heck do I know. I thought hard-throwing southpaws were the new market inefficiency. He’ll be back, folks. Bank on it.
Val Pascucci: I think the only reason the Mets keep Scooch around is because of a clause in Ted Berg’s contract. Seriously, he’s a great guy to have around in Triple-A. He’s become the Crash Davis of the Buffalo Bisons, and the kids love him.
Zach Lutz: The heir apparent to David Wright? Lutz has a good eye at the plate and surprising power. However, he’ll be 26 in June and he’s still hovering in Triple-A. He deserves a shot, and I would have opted for him over re-signing Scott Hairston who is now injured. Never mess around with Karma, Sandy.
Hey, this was fun… We’ll do this again next week after the second wave of cuts.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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Good job, Joe.
No real surprises. Kirk was competing with Adam Loewen, who is a little older, a little more experienced, a little healthier, a little bigger and having a decent spring. Kirk looked really good defensively. He just needs another half season of AAA and he’ll be ready.
You forgot Matt Harvey. Yep. He was actually annoyed that he got cut – I love that!
You also forgot Jose Reyes…(I became physically ill watching the Mets first batting champ, a home-grown potential HOF talent in a division rival’s uniform knowing he was let go without any sensible compensation – don’t you think the Giants would’ve traded Gary Brown to get Jose last July?).
den Dekker looked great in the outfield. We all pray for Reese Havens. Have this silly notion of Reese at 2nd base, Dan Murphy at 3rd and DW moved to LF.
Valdespin did make the cut and he looks like a legitimate talent. I believe the more he’s challenged, the more mature he’ll become.
Thanks Tommy! I left off Harvey because I weighed in on his being cut yesterday in another post. I like what I’ve seen from ‘Spin too.
July 1st? Yeah it was possible to net a good return for Reyes. July 30th, I don’t see it.
I agree about Reyes.
Reyes was hurt on July 2nd so I don’t know any team that was going to count on him helping them get to the post season coming off another hamstring injury. Those things are tricky to know when there fully healed.
The injury cost any potential trade but I don’t know that Alderson really was looking to trade him. At that time Einhorn was coming in with 200 M and the 2012 was payroll was expected to be around 110-120 M.
Numerous things changed between July 2nd and Jan 2nd. Unfortunately as bad as some people want to blame Alderson for not resigning him I think it had a lot to do with the Wilpon’s changing terms agreed upon with Einhorn and him subsequently stepping out that cost the best chance at Reyes. Of course the owner’s comments about him didn’t help either but that was just a a display of how Fred privately feels about the players he talked about in the New Yorker.
I think that could have played a large role but the Marlins going nuts and offering that ridiculous contract played a larger role in Reyes leaving.
Joe — “(Robert Carson) will be back, folks. Bank on it.”
Joe, I’ll sell you a Brooklyn Bridge. Having seen Carson several times on MiLB, you’re making a bold statement. He must throw straight as an arrow, because he keeps getting lit up in AA baseball. He throws hard but the balls keep coming back harder. That he was in camp surprises me. Maybe if he develops great command, he’ll be back. Otherwise he’ll be back and gone even faster. He’s a good kid though.
Des, I believe he was miscast as a starter. He’ll thrive as a lefty specialist mainly because his fastball bores in on leftys and he’ll be tough for them to get around on. At least that’s the hope.
Joe D — I hope you’re onto something. Here’s some video to support Carson as a flame thrower?|:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fTP_hh2XgU
I am most bummed about Havens. I really like him, and thought his time had come (again). But yeah, he really has to get over these chronic back/oblique issues and soon to ever have a chance..
Kirk? Will be back. Hard to think with torres and Bay manning 2 outfield spots there won’t be a glaring need for him at some point.
Pascucci seems like a guy to groom for coaching or managing.
If DW has a setback and can’t make opening day, Lutz probably ends up getting the starting 3B job by default, assuming they really want to keep Murphy at 2B.
Carson could be back. Expect a decent amount of churn in the pen. But, I think Edgrin will be up before he is.
Flores, I think just send him back to PSL (Bingo? wherever), stick him at 3B every day, and forget all about him. Let him get comfortable at whatever spot you think he can ultimately stick at, and see if the bat finally develops more.
and finally, would not surprise me to see Legares (or Puello? I get those 2 confused as to skill set and level!) up by the end of the year. Again, hard to see torres sticking as a starter all year, and something will happen with Bay (gut feeling).
Heck, I can easily see an OF by September of Duda in left (going to be a beast!), and Kirk/Lagares/Puello (Did I forget anyone?) covering CF and RF.
If Wright can’t go then it will be Murphy and Turner playing 2B and 3B. No idea which one in which spot.
I think they’ll commit to Murph at 2B unless Wright is completely out the door. Turner’s bat is marginal and makes no sense to completely destroy any progress Murph is making defensively for a couple weeks at 3B.
Oh I agree if its a 2 week thing then Turner will play 3B. If it is long-term they may make the move.
Stick — Regarding Havens, I’m bummed out too. This kid had a can’t miss label. But his mid-section (ribs, obliques) won’t cooperate. He may never play an MLB game. But it’s too early to say at this time. He fortunately has his head screwed on and is a gamer, so time will tell.
Another 2007 First Round pick was LHP Nathan Vineyard. He had some arm/shoulder injuries and dropped out of baseball. Some folks questioned his will to win and maturity to endure setbacks. He was drafted by the Mets ahead of Lucas Duda, Dillon Gee and Robert Carson. Drafting is really a game of spinning the roulette wheel. The latest word I’ve read is that Vineyard is trying a comeback.
Des!
Vineyard was drafted ahead of Mike I mean Giancarlo Stanton and Freddie Freeman as well. I think we took Scott Moviel 1 pick after Stanton and 1 pick in front of Freddie Freeman even after Vineyard was picked. Talk about bad luck.
All the young guys are going to get innings and at bats in minors. Will see a couple during the year, I am sure.
always do really, for every team.
And with the way the Met roster currently is, there will probably be even more opportunities than normal.
LF, CF, 2B, 3B and the rotation are all positions that could easily have a massive opening at some point during the year. And of course, you always get churn in the pen.
Love ST when I get the chance to look at some of these prospect guys.
So surprised on this list for me.
*No surprises on this list for me.
Damn tablet….still trying to get used to using it for these blogs.
Get yourself a BlueTooth keyboard with trackpad…
I have three, One for home with my docking station, One handheld one and one that sits in my case for when I’m on the road!
This is the handheld one I have and I love it!
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=200707951283
Stinson is a classic example of why when someone tells me about how great a prospect is based on his A, and AA Stats I pretty much tune them out!
Anything below AAA is pretty much just an instructional league and success or failure there really says nothing about the player other than is he ready to be challenged in AAA where the batter may have or be near having MLB experience and should know everything they need to know to become an MLB player already!
That said I wonder yet again why we are not looking to make trades with guys like Flores, Legares and Lutz to get the Catcher, SP, or some other position we have a need at since neither of those players would seem to have a place to play anytime in the next 3 or 4 years.
None of them seem to be potential CORE candidates,
Only one is actaully playing in his natural position, and he’s 26 already!
Everyone knows that if Wright goes it will be either Turner or Murphy playing 3B (most likely Murphy at 3B Turner to 2B)
It’s time to start making trades for all these guys who seemingly are not part of the future core to get some players in positions of need that CAN be part of said core.
As it stands we have Davis and Duda as the only two potential FTURE CORE guys with a longshot chance Wright might stay with them and Tejada sticking to that. Maybe you can add Niese to that if he takes his next step the way Halladay did at his age…
If Kirk is the CF of the futre then it’s time to make some moves with the kids we can’t seem to use to get something we can use.
We certainly can’t just rely on our drafting ability to get the core everyone is so convinced we need to have before it’s worth having/buying veteran stars again.
I agree that they are at the point where the deck needs to be reshuffled, in terms of converting some resources that might be in excess, into areas of need. Even if it is a 2-1 type deal (mets getting the 1). I certainly hope that is in the game plan as the next step, since it is the logical way to go. But again, it depends on having guys showing enough to get other teams to pony up something you want back.
I disagree though about AA and AAA. I agree that A ball stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, but believe the theory that AA is the toughest jump. If you can put up serious #s in AA, then you have to be considered a real prospect. AAA is just a different look (more old retreads, fewer young prospects).
Look at it this way (an academic analogy): A ball is high school, but AA is college (a huge jump). But AAA is more like grad school (a much smaller jump)
And I look at those leagues like this:
A Ball – You perfect what you already have! Correct some flaws that exist.
AA – You work on using what you have and start to add to your skills
AAA – You take what you learned and apply it, tweak what needs tweaking and get all of it consistent enough to make the MLB.
But once you get to age 23 if your not in AAA already (or close to getting there) then your probably not going to be much in the MLB and should be part of a trade to get someone who can be!
We instead tend to just move them to a new position where they could make it due to the lack of having anyone who naturally plays that position being good enough to do so!
The studies have all showed that a player who makes the MLB before 24 will have a longer career (full career) and be a more successful MLB player than someone who comes up after age 23!
You can’t keep these guys down in AAA too long because they will take up space other kids who deserve their shot need to get promoted!
The Yankees and Phillies have all done quite a few multi player MiL swaps to get guys they need. And they only hold onto their best and most promising or get much more back for them either in the name of an All Star MLB player or some other position they will neded to replace one!
The time for us to start doing that is NOW
! We already had issues protecting them all from the Rule 5 thats a classic sign you are holding onto too many maybe’s and you need to convert them into something you really want to keep!
You don’t want to start doing it AFTER harvey and Familia are ready to come up…
You want to have the starting regular 8 behind those guys set and backed up before they come up otherwise you will only be wasting what could be great years of the two most promising hopes, and possibly ruining them because despite all their skill they are losing wholesale because they have no one good playing behind them!
You ruin their Psyche, you ruin their confidence and can even ruin their arm when they try to get three outs on a single pitch because they feel they HAVE to in order to win!
The thing about 23 year olds getting up to the Majors is that it pretty much precludes all but the very best college players since the vast majority of them are already 21 when their drafted. Den Dekker’s already 24 with just two years in the minors. Vaughn’s 22 starting A+ next year, Duda made it up here at 25, not including his Sept. call up. Muno’s 23 starting out this year in low A. Havens is already 25. Harveys a guy who’s rocketing up here but he’s 23 next week. Right on pace but with just one season in the minors. It’s a lot tougher for the college kids cause one or two bad years or injury plagued ones really take a toll. On the other hand even a lesser talented HS kid like Stinson has a little more time to develop and maybe have a career where experience meets peak and he can get the most out of himself.
Then again the HS kids cost anywhere from 100 G’s to 1 M more and that’s why we’ve been avoiding them for the last 15 years even though the slotting ‘guidelines” didn’t come out until about 2003.
And Tag what does that tell you about who to draft and when?
You see if your going to take College kids they had better be a hell of a lot more MLB ready and keeping them in the MiLs through all three leagues unwise!
Put them directly into AA and or AAA since they have had that extra A/AA type experience and make them perform!
They shold be ahead of the curve not merely safe picks because you know more about them.
As for costing more for HS kids well the only reason for that is they can easily go to college instead!
You know this is why the NFL has a far fewer bust rate than the MLB, Joey D posted a good comparison on those two but the reason that comparison is the way it is comes from the fact that the NFL restricts all kids who have not gradated from sophmore from entering the draft!
That said 100G – 1 Mil is not an awful lot to pay if the Kid is worth it and worth developing. Your going to spend a hell of a lot more than that on developing him. That bonus is peanuts in comparison!
I say only draft college kids who are AA or AAA ready. If not they are likely a waste of a pick anyway! By the time you hone their skills they will be too old to make the investment worth it!
What it tells me Metsie is you should strive for a 60/40 split or better in favor of the higher end HS kid who you could have snagged in the 15th round who would in fact be a first or 2nd rounder 3 years down the road. That is a lot more difficult under the new rules but is certainly something we should have been doing all along. If we had done this 10 times a draft there is no question that we would have 5-10 fully developed players at various spots and much more to trade as well.
That would have cost us about 25 M more over the last decade but we’d have 3 or 4 All Stars making league minimum for 3 years and still under team control for 3 more at no more of a cost than Luis Castillo.
Almost all college kids start out in the short season NY Penn League and go to instructional beforehand. A reasonable projection would be Savannah to St. Lucie the 2nd year, St. Lucie to Bing the 3rd and Bing to either a callup or Buffalo the 4th. That’s very reasonable, even hopeful for a college kids advancement but that doesn’t leave a lot of room for stagnation or injury. Those guys have to move fast like Ike did or their leaving parts of their prime in the minors. The difference between college and AA is huge only perhaps the most advanced pitching prospect with balls to the wall stuff could manage that. Hitters would be abused their first pro season although there would be exceptions here and there.
Maybe 10% of college kids get drafted and only half of them are considered realistic prospects while even in the NY Penn league everyone’s been drafted so the competition is much better even in A-. then it was in college.
Even though the bust rate is higher for HS kids the one’s who do make it, make it a lot bigger to make them, even with the leverage of college commanding more of a committment, a beter value in the long run since they can combine experience with all of their prime and as athletes are better simply because they are deemed worthy of being drafted out of HS as opposed to many college kids who weren’t.
Again though, need and speed has constantly robbed our system of difference making prospects as has the reluctance to pay a premium price for them. When you look around at the best players we’ve had all came to the pro’s right out of HS or as 16 yr old amateurs. Reyes, Wright, Alfonzo, Straw, Gooden, Piazza, Hernandez, Dykstra, Wilson, Hundley. Sure we’ve had the Darling’s, Olerud’s, Ike’s and looks like Harvey fit that category but when you add it all up…………
I’m more in agreement with Stick on AA and AAA.
I agree with you though about the future core and supporting players for this team. At some point shuffling the deck will be in order. I just don’t expect to see it this year, unless an opportunity with trading Wright presents itself. Or maybe trading prospects to try and bring a creditable catcher in, even if that catcher is still a prospect himself.
I’m not convinced that Kirk is the CF of the future. Just my opinion but I’d like to hang onto the next prospect or two in line for CF. I’d have no objection with trading someone like Flores for pieces.
If you don’t do it now then what happens next year when you bring up Harvey and Familia but have no run spport?
How long do you hold onto a Flores knowing full well even if he keeps jitting the problem is going to be getting that bat into the linep becase he is playing out of position like Duda and Murphy?
Well, what is his position and what are they doing with Wright?
he’s a SS by trade….But they are toying with the idea of turning him into an OFer…
Wright’s status doesn’t matter, Murphy should take his spot as that is HIS natural position and we have a ton of other 2Bs like valdespin and Havens to throw in at 2B!
Flores could be part of that too but the reason they were even toying with the OF spot is he doesn’t have the greatest IF glove either!
Flores isn’t one of those can’t miss guys but he does have some skills, Why not trade him and some other guys we really have no plans for in the next 3-4 years and get someone we CAN make plans with is what I’m getting at!
My impression was that they are turning Flores into a 3B as he is playing that position this season.
I hear ya and I’m not ruling it out this year.
Still think though won’t see much of this until the off season.
Well maybe they become factors in what we get at the trade deadline!
If Wright goes (and I think it is likely) then throwing in a Flores might get you three top guys you won’t get with Wright alone as a rental!
We can’t make another Beltran type trade one for one we will never get ahead that way with the potential bust factor!
I still think Wright stays here the whole season but I won’t rule out a mid season trade.
Metsie — I think AA ball is where the men and the boys go their separate ways. In Triple A we see a lot of older guys who have time in grade but won’t go anywhere. They make a decent paycheck so they keep on playing. It beats the local beer league.
Well I look at AA ball as where the coachable seperate from the non coachable!
They are all boys until they get to AAA and maybe not even till they get to the big show!
If you do well in AA then it is more a sign that you can take what the coaches tell you and utilize it!
Once you learn it you take it to AAA where you make it consistent and learn HOW to use what you have learned.
More and more teams are starting to skip AAA and pull their prospects straight from AA. Under Omar our AAA was used as a retirement league full of last chance guys to plug in for emergency. That is starting to change but it isn’t just the Mets that did that.
Agree. I’ve been seeing this for many clubs, not just ours.
Isn’t that what we did with pelfrey?
Didn’t say it works just that teams have been doing it more.
Stinson was never considered a top prospect. Top prospects don’t start in low A ball three consecutive years. He’s basically the best of a bad lot, I mean hpw many relief pitchers have we developed in the last 20 years? Heilman, Feliciano, Parnell and who else? Joe Smith? He had 30 innings in the minors when made his debut.
The thing with Flores, Lutz and Lagares is we really don’t know what we have yet and neither would anyone else so what are they going to give us for any of those guys? Besides teams are really up against the 40 man crunch already with their own guys, their not going to lose a spot in a 2 for or two spots in a 3 for 1 deal for guys their not sure of.
We’re really not as deep in the middle IF as it seems. Murphy and Turner are probably not long term solutions at 2B, Tejada may be but he’s at SS right now. Valdespin could be a player at either spot but has big questions about his defense and strike zone knowledge and Havens is no sure thing either. Looking farthur down the road there are Tovar, Gamboa (best chance at SS), Muno and Evans but those guys are 3 years away at absolute best, if ever and Flores looks bored of baseball if you ask me and hasn’t had a chance to stick in the middle for years now.
It’s a hold the fort year and hope for some breakouts. That’s about the best we can hope for.
Good to see that the team has decided to let Harvey keep pitching again against MLB clubs after all – like I was hoping for. He’s a man, he’s not a boy so let him keep going. If he doesn’t have it than fine send him down no harm no foul.
If he continues to impress then let him keep pitching and maybe gain some confidence.
The exact right move was made to let him keep pitching.