16
2012
ESPN Ranks Mets No. 26 in Future Rankings
An article by Former Writers
ESPN did it’s first future power rankings and established where each team stands going forward for the next five years (subscription required). They used five categories for ranking the teams: majors, minors, finances, management, and mobility (of contracts) and gave a number grade to each category. They then averaged the five numbers together based on a weighted system: full weight was placed on the majors and minors, finances and management received 2/3 weight, and mobility received 1/3 weight.
When it was all said and done the Mets came in at No. 26, below the Pittsburgh Pirates…
My first problem with this system is that it’s putting equal weight on the majors and minors. Understandably, when talking about the future a good system is extremely important, but the odds of those guys developing as expected and being contributing major leaguers is extremely low. Due to the fact that players in the bigs are much more of a sure thing, full weight should be given to the majors with the minors getting 3/4 weight and then adjusting the rest of the categories accordingly.
It was the heavily weighted farm system that got the Pirates and Oakland Athletics the nudge over the Mets, despite the A’s dismantling their major league team this off-season and the Pirates not having a winning season in my lifetime. That just sits wrong with me.
The subject of trading David Wright is a discussion for another day, but if Jim Bowden is advocating trading him then I am going to believe we should keep him.
About the Author: Former Writers
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Most of what ESPN pumps out should be disregard. It seems like everything is anti Mets. At this point, it’s getting really old very fast.
Yep, read something about that here a few days ago I think. ESPN hates our steenking guts.
Ah ESPN… Using the Mets as the whipping boy for years now, and years to come…
1st off…why does ESPN and other sites think that charging for online content, which is pretty much nothing impressive and other than the “opinions”, their not giving us any information that can’t be found elsewhere on the web…ESPN is already getting my money for ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN News, ESPN-Classic, ESPN-U and ESPN Deportes.
That’s six channels that I don’t watch…but I pay for….Isn’t that enough of my money to weak content?
I don’t even go to their web site that much anymore…too many good blogs and other good sources of info…
Save your money. I use an Over the Air (OTA) antenna and I subscribe to MLB.com and MiLB.com. Everything but the baseball stuff is free. I get all the news that’s really news, especially when I also use the internet for MMO.
I’ve considered that…the cost of streaming all MLB games is about two months worth or cable bill…most other programming I can get online for free. Sadly, the Over Air signal is very weak and dropping down to basic cable wasn’t gonna save me any money (strange).
If was just me, I’d probably do it…but try telling a six year old that she can’t watch Spongebob any more.
It streams on netflix
So I’m assuming you’re not in the SNY viewing area?
Those of us in the SNY and YES viewing area would have Met and Yankee games blacked out even if we had a subscription.
What qualifies as an SNY viewing area? I live in Rochester, we get SNY and YES..I thought that the MLB streaming option didn’t have “blackouts”?
It for sure does have blackouts.
Unfortunately, that is incorrect.
Really gets my goat. I’d pay for the app for my phone – so if I’m not home I can peek at games – but does me no good. It clearly states the Mets and Yankee games are not ‘out of market’ games and will be blacked out.
I’d have to say if you’re getting SNY and YES, you’re in the viewing area and the blackout would apply to you too.
I’m down in Central NY on the Jersey shore, if that helps.
I just checked…all Mets (and Yankees) games are blacked out on MLB.com in Rochester…what a waste of a good option.
I get lucky, the zip code I live in actually has 0 black outs, the ones beside of me (3 miles away) have multiple blackouts…. I guess I live in an area that does not exist.
I just cancelled the DTV baseball package last night, fist time I don’t have it in 10 years. The only time I received blackouts (living in NH) is on Saturdays due to the fox contract and if the game was on ESPN.
Yeah, same thing here. I used the Roku and just streamed it on TV. I would always have to talk to people in India though when I would be blacked out due to where my internet provider was and not due to where I was. We had ATT Uverse and half the time it registers my location in NY instead of NC… LOL. Try getting someone in India to understand that one.
So with the Roku box are you able to stream SNY without any additional costs?
I have a Roku as well.
TRS…I’m assuming you’ve got the MLB subscription and that’s what you’re streaming through your Roku?
I just looked it up MLB.TV is $129 and the DTV baseball package is $215. MLB just added the ability to view HD through the XBOX which I have. So I am probably going to do this. I can stomach $129 for this team, $215 was just a little too much this year.
Yeah, it’s the MLBTV package. I have been getting it since it’s existence. Free radio, free games, ability to watch games on my phone, last year you could add the minor league games for like 15.00 total. It consumes me, especially being a teacher and having much of my summer off.
What is Roku?
Just a live streaming device that you can connect to your TV. You can play your netflix, hulu, MLBTV and a bunch of other things on your TV. They are really cheap and really effective.
That’s the real tricky part…they black out biased on you IP Address which comes from your internet provider. Your IP could have nothing to do with your location. My old company had their own IP address that had nothing to do with geographic location. I’m guessing I could have watched games there put not at my home.
I get the MLB radio for the games, and it can be flacky at times…trying to talk to India is a real pain in the ass. Do they fix you up or not?
For those who have the Streaming feature, how good and reliable is it?
I do think the NFL is missing the boat on the streaming option. I’d pay to watch Vikings games if it was an option. Oh well, is it surprising that the NFL is so greedy that they over price for their TV content and try to force you and cable providers to pay outrageous fees to carry games.
For now the MLBTV package online is still based on address but they use IP to identify the address so if your billing address is out of the blackout area to can argue your way into not being blacked out….
As for quality? It comes and goes, it has a DVR feature and I have found it much easier to wait about 30 minutes and then you can not only fast forward but have less buffering issues. If you want to watch it on just regular resolution instead of HD you have few issues at all on the computer itself. They are really improving things, last year I was able to get it on my Droid as well.. only problem is stuff like that could cause a quick divorce. LOL. It’s bad enough when I watch it every night when I am home but to watch it when I am out to dinner?
The wife totally gets on me when we go out and I start streaming game highlights while she is driving.
TRS,where in NC are you? I’m in Cary,5 minutes from Raleigh. I get blacked out from SNY whenever we play the Nats or Orioles and on saturdays whenever Fox haas the Braves on at the same time as the Mets. If you know a way to get around the saturday blackouts,please share.lol I have Directv.
Saturday blackouts not much I can do either. Sometimes the MLBTV package still lets it come through…
I live in Statesville about 45 min north of Charlotte and 45 min west of Winston.
You’re about 2 hours from me. I used to get the Reds telecast but not anymore. I just get the Nats,O’s and Braves. Nats broadcasters are horrrible and I have to listen to them 18 times a year.Hopefully one dau Charloote gets a team.
Yeah, I have some friends who live in Raleigh and we will be going there for Basketball team camp this summer. I am a UVA fan but we actually put in NC State’s offense for my high school team this year.
Were do you live? I can’t believe that there is this magical line that makes that big a difference.
Would you get these games if you had a cable package?
It sucks for me…the only reason I ever got cable was for the Mets, I never had it growing up as a kid.
I’d hate to live in Canada. Jays games are blacked out in the whole country.
Oh yea, thank MLB for the magical lines. On Saturday’s during 1-7pm the only game that any US citizen can watch on TV is the Fox Game of the week unless you live within a geographical range of another team. I live in Red Sox nation, so I can watch any game for free on NESN since it comes in the basic package for DirecTV. For out of market games you can get the “Baseball Package” which is now over $200 and you can get most out of market games. So I could get any Mets game on WPIX or SNY as long as it didn’t conflict with the fox contract or ESPN game of the week. In those cases you just choose that station.
And THIS is the only reason I probably still have a cable subscription. It’s the only way I can get all Met games since I’m in the SNY viewing area and the only way I can watch the games is if I’m watching on SNY.
(Minus the occasional FOX and ESPN games they pickup for the Mets.)
‘Were do you live?’
Not sure if that question was for me but as I said above….central Jersey shore – Monmouth County.
So New Jersey isn’t blacked out…but upstate NY is. Good for you, bad for me. Could you get SNY if you had cable?
What sucks for me is…a few times last year, Our local fox played other games (like Twins Angles) instead of the Mets game even though we are in a Mets market and Fox had the Mets game.
Oh well, Buck sucks and I usually turn the volume off when he’s doing a game.
I don’t know why he’s Fox’s Golden boy, he’s got a good voice, but he’s a terrible announcer and extremely biased and has a huge ego.
No, I am blacked out where I live. Sorry if I confused the issue.
However, I believe extreme southern NY is not blacked out since most of that area does not get SNY/YES.
Ugh…that should have read extreme NJ….not NY
And yes, I do have cable and I do get SNY and YES.
Saturday blackouts is specific to the Fox contract with MLB. Between 1-7pm the only game you can watch that is not considered “local” is the Fox Game of the Week.
I live in NC and yeah for some reason the Zipcode I have has no blackouts, all the ones around me have anything from the Braves, Nationals, Reds, O’s…
I still have to fight each year when we play the Nats and Braves to get them to understand that my address is in that magical zone. Once they do it I am good for the series but have to do it again each new series. Last year I had to do it the first game because they had me living in NY…
Kill the messenger! The Mets have a lousy farm system but i doesn’t matter. The Mets also have a lousy 25 man roster! The Pirates will win more games than the Mets this year.
Aren’t you a bundle of joy?
On these rankings and the overall impression about the overall suckieness of the Mets…
I know this team isn’t very good and won’t contend, they are filled with 25 “hopes” and “potentials” and no “sure things”. That’s not a good ratio for success.
But I have a hard time believing that they are that close to the bottom. They aren’t that bad, plenty of other teams finished worse than the Mets and several others who didn’t improve or got much worse.
It doesn’t matter much, finishing in 2nd or last still means the same thing at the end.
Unfortunately, the Mets play in the strongest division in the NL (maybe MLB)…if they played in the West or Central, I’d feel much better about their chances to compete.
I don’t subscribe to ESPN so rarely do I read anything over there but…..
What division we play in should have nothing to do with future rankings, unless I’m not understanding the concept of this.
Future rankings should be independent of what the rest of the teams in the division are projected to do or not do – right?
I guess I’m failing to understand fully what ESPN’s rankings are about…but I still think that there is still a lot of negativity that while deserved, is knocking this team down further than what is realistic.
As far as ranking a team five years out, it’s pretty ridiculous. There is know way to predict how teams will perform much more than a year out…even that is a gamble. The 2006 Mets looked like they were going to be strong for years…age and injuries killed that notion.
We have know idea how players will develop and how they will perform going forward.
Pirates have a loaded system so of course they should be ahead of us. Why wouldn’t they be?
Because their ownership will never spend the money to retain all that young talent or bring in free agents to fill holes they can’t internally.
the biggest problem the Mets face right now is no one is really sure where the owner’s finances are. The minors are short on position players, but thet can change over the next few months. The major league roster is weak, no doubt about it, but that is being dealt with and should not be considered against their “future” especially if the Wilpons get a decent judgement this year.
Don’t use denial as an excuse to point fingers at ESPN for this projection. We may not like what they say all the time but they do employ very talented people who would not be where they are without knowing a thing or two. Yes, especially on TV it’s more TMZ style or reporting, but for content on the website, it’s extremely robust.
This team is very bad. If most sources rank their minors at the bottom and most believe they have no shot this season, then why is the above so hard to believe? Where they should rank well is “Mobility” or payroll. They currently do not have one player signed past 2013 except for Bay and Santana’s options of 17m and 25m that can be bought out for 3m (Bays can become guaranteed based on PA’s) and 5.5m respectively. So if they can either get past Madoff or have to sell the team, there is no reason that once the rest of the bad contracts come off, they will be able to actually sign some talent to compliment some of the kids coming up.
“f most sources rank their minors at the bottom”
Actually, most of then national sources I’ve seen rank them middle of the pack and improving.
“ost believe they have no shot this season, then why is the above so hard to believe? ”
Because it is about the team’s future.
For the Mets minors the early developmental stages are starting to trend up and where they get the lowest scores is for the AA-AAA areas. But it is trending up but a long way to go. It is about the teams future but there are way too many unknowns that knowns when it comes to players on this team. They will be bad this year, there is no one that has a contract to 2014, and we just don’t know if guys like Duda and Ike can be the players that they need to be. So there is no reason for ESPN to rank them any higher if they are trying to predict where they will be in 2015.
“For the Mets minors the early developmental stages are starting to trend up and where they get the lowest scores is for the AA-AAA areas.”
Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, Mejia, Nieuwenhuis, Havens, Flores, and Puello. Are all probably gonna be IN AAA/AA this year. All of our top-top guys outside of Nimmo are in the high minors so I don’t really get where that is coming from. And our second tier guys like Gorski, Den Dekker, Lagares, and Valdespin will also be in AAA/AA.
That’s if you look at current analysis. Yes over the course of the year they will move up, but the higher levels are completely depleted at this point and besides Harvey and Familia there is not much in AA that scouts are gushing about. No doubt someone is going to surprise us, but as for known commodities AA-AAA is currently very weak.
It was surprising Buffalo was even fielding a team with so many call ups.
You are sort of saying this when you say there aren’t guys scouts are gushing over, but the consensus seems not to be that the Mets don’t have talent in AAA/AA, it is that they don’t have TOP talent in those levels. They have a good amount of guys who could contribute on those rosters right now, but not a lot of the Montero, D’Arnaud, Arenado’s of the world who have star potential. Collin McHugh and Chris Schwinden are nice guys to have in AAA but they certainly are not as nice as Julio Teheran or Manny Banuelos up there.
Is that along the lines of what you’re trying to say?
I can’t understand why vesting options contain buyouts. It’s not like it’s the club’s option to pick up the extra year, it’s wholly dependent on the players performance and/or health.
Why would a club want to put in a clause that obligated itself to pay anything if a player wasn’t effective or healthy the prior year?
The whole vesting option thing is ridiculous. You can’t tie it directly to performance and even if it’s not “excerized” you still have to pay anyway.
It’s that little extra sugar in the contract to get a player to sign. For the team it’s adding another year with a insurance policy. For the player if he still performs well his option gets exercised, if he doesn’t he gets a going away present.
Think of it more as a delayed signing bonus.
I think of it more like a split contract for the option year, depending on how they play.
“My first problem with this system is that it’s putting equal weight on the majors and minors. Understandably, when talking about the future a good system is extremely important, but the odds of those guys developing as expected and being contributing major leaguers is extremely low. Due to the fact that players in the bigs are much more of a sure thing, full weight should be given to the majors with the minors getting 3/4 weight and then adjusting the rest of the categories accordingly.”
Major leaguers are so not a sure thing. especially when they get past 30. Please refer to Bay, Jason. Also, Joe, think about how much can change in 5 years. How much roster turnover does the average team see, especially when rebuilding?
Also, one of the big things that gets measured when looking at farm teams is depth. So ya, Harvey may be a burn out, but if they handled them all properly, they still have Familia, Mejia, Wheeler, Fullmer, Mazzoni, Leathersich etc etc. There is bound to be 2 good starters in there and a good reliever, at least.
“It was the heavily weighted farm system that got the Pirates and Oakland Athletics the nudge over the Mets, despite the A’s dismantling their major league team this off-season and the Pirates not having a winning season in my lifetime. That just sits wrong with me.”
I think it is more of “the Mets are easy to put down right now”. The As farm system has had its troubles as well. They must be piling on the Madoff thing (which will most likely be resolved one way or another by this time next year).
the A’s also probably have bigger financial problems than the Mets. While NY has debt to resolve, at least they have high (potential) revenue streams. the A’s are always going to be broke unless they finally get a new stadium and move.
Difference over the definition of sure thing. If they are on the 25 man roster they are a sure thing they are at least capable of playing at a level that was able to get them on a major league roster. A ton of guys in the farm will burn out before they hit AA so yeah I consider Jason Bay a “sure thing”. Even with how poor he has played he is still contributing at a higher level than probably at least what 80% of guys in the minors can.
After the Cahill, Gonzalez, and Bailey trades and the signing of Cespedes the A’s have on of the top farm systems in baseball so I won’t knock them for that but they have almost no one left on their major league roster and as any said it is not like they have great finances to work with.
This is where we are for 2014 right now before factoring trades and free agent signings.
C – Thole, Cordero, Centeno, Pena
1B – Davis, Dykstra,
2B – Havens, Valdespin, Muno
SS – Tejada, Tovar
3B – Murphy, Lutz, Marte, Flores
LF – Duda, Lagares, Gomez, Taijeron
CF – Kirk, Den Dekker, Puello, Ceccilini, Pugh
RF – Zapata, Vaughn, Ratliff? Javier Rodriguez
Pitcher: Niese, Gee, Parnell, Scwinden, Stinson, Beato, Harvey, Familia, Mejia, Wheeler, Carson, Armando Rodriguez, Gorski, Mchugh, Schwinden, Montero, Leathersich, Moore, Pill, Peavey, Mateo, Edgin, Verrett, Mazzoni, Holt, Goedell, Whttenden, Carr.
These are the guys that we currently have that will be under team control come ST 2014 that we can reasonably hope will make it up here before you factor in trades or FA signings. some will move up and others will fall by the wayside. Some are performing well right now some aren’t but right now they are potential solutions. Other prospects may be acquired and someone in our system right now is bound to come out of nowhere and force himself into the picture as well.
Those guys will be backed up come 2014 with the following who are really too far away to count on in 2014 but some of these guys will be close:
C – Maron, Jose Garcia
1B – Aderlain Rodriguez
2B – Evans
SS – Gamboa
LF –
CF – Marquez (I hope)
RF – Nimmo
Pitcher – Morris, Tapia, Urbina, Fullmer,
The reality right now is in identifying where we need more depth and upgrading the entire system whenever and however possible. Adding 5 A-B prospects throughout various levels of the system would put us in a position to have a year similar to 1984 in 2014 and those below average performers could very likely be above average bench/role players or AAA depth…….with a chance to be more than that.
Pitcher, Catcher and 5 tool OFers is where I would begin to look at other teams systems and a lot of our ability to compete will be dependent on developing who we already have and significantly adding to our talent level through trades, draft and IFA signings.
5 years out is in the throwing darts category. And with the mets in particular, no one has any clue what the finances will be like. And not quite sure what Mobility is.
And the ML roster for any team will have a huge amount of turnover in that time frame.
anyway, I would wager that the Mets are probably the team that is hardest to predict (or one of them) going that far out.
Ya, the mobility thing is stupid because if Bay’s option doesn’t vest, the Mets have 0 payroll commitments past next year as noted in the other post. If the wilpons don’t get completely hammered by the Madoff ruling (and they shouldn’t) and Alderson slows the bleeding of revenue (and it looks like he can), they will be in great shape in 2 or 3 years, especially if some of the kids develop like we hope and farm continues to improve.
Mobility was defined as the ability to move contracts. So because the Mets have large unmovable contracts in Santana and Bay it was only a 9 even with Wright’s “movable” contract.