Jan
10
2012

Temper Your Expectations

Hey MMO readers, I’m not looking to be a Debbie Downer with this post, but I wanted to draw a bit of a comparison to my colleague Clayton’s post yesterday about the Mets offense being better than we think in 2012.

I think Clayton drew some fair points, but the bottom line is that it will take a lot of offense to make up for the losses of Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes.

Here is a chart I created thanks to some data from Fangraphs, that will show how daunting a task it will be to duplicate last season’s offense:

Click to Enlarge

It will take 9.6 of Wins Above Replacement to replace what Beltran and Reyes brought to the table in 2011. That’s a huge number for any team, but more so for the Mets who have added little this offseason to the offense. It represents more than 50% of what all the other Mets players did combined in 2011.

Even if you expect Ruben Tejada to put up a third of what Reyes gave you, I doubt that Ronny Cedeno can duplicate the 1.8 WAR Tejada had off the bench and as a part time starter.

For now, Andres Torres and Angel Pagan are just a wash.

Lucas Duda will get a shot to replace Carlos Beltran, but will he be ready for the adjustments NL pitchers will make against him now that the book is out on him? Remember that while Duda was a pleasant surprise for the Mets last season, he was never a highly regarded prospect and he never even appeared on a Mets Top 10 Prospect list. In fact John Sickels never ranked Duda on his Top 20 in 2010 or 2011.

This is baseball and the best thing about the game is it’s unpredictability. Like I said, I’m not trying to be negative, I’m only saying that our expectations should be tempered.

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About the Author: Craig Lerner

I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.

21 Comments + Add Comment

  • I think the best way to look at this year is to have zero expectations and set the bar as low as it can go. This way the Mets will not dissapoint you this year. Lets face it this is a “Bite the Bullet” year, as we wait for bad contracts to expire in two years.

    I would highly suggest that Met fans make it to Spring Training this year, as it will be the only meaningful basball played.

    If you think the winter “Hot Stove Season” is long, wait till the real season starts and we are officially out of it in mid May!

    • I’m with you on this. First year in a long while I’ll have no allusions about where we’re finishing going in…..

    • I thought last year was the year to set no expectations and wait for bad contract to come off the books. Strange how are back in the same position this year, but it’s worse!

      This Offense has the potential to be better than expected, but then again they can completely bomb out just as easily.

      I really feel that they’ll be about average, I think at times, they’ll look great…but I expect a ton of slumps and weeks when this team will be luck to score any runs at all.

      We gotta remember; Wright and Bay are very streaky, even when they are having good seasons. Duda and Tejada are both young and will probably slump and don’t forget that Ike only has a 183 games under his belt and hasn’t faced MLB pitching for about 11 months (at the start of the season) There’s a very good chance that he’s gonna struggle. Even many of the best seasoned star vets have a period on adjustment when coming back off of an extended DL stint.

      I expect very little from Torres and Thole…

      Muprhy will probably be the most consistent, but that’s assuming that he’s playing everyday.

      • USMF – well done. Good piece of analysis.

  • So just out of curiosity when did you first realize that Met ownership had decided to field a non competitive team?

  • Is Mettle the Mule coming back for a return engagement? Grandma the clown is now also available. Make alternate plans for things to do this summer, it’s going to be a veeery looooong season. :(

  • Wait a second, this is the lineup that your almighty one has put out there, you claim he’s have excellent offseason in back to back season, yet you’re telling us to lower our expectations?? i thought if a GM has a great offseason is because he puts the best team on the field to have a chance to win every night, or a least be competitive…

  • OK so again does this answer the question of how did the Mets average more runs per game in the 2nd half without Beltran and with Reyes missing a significant part and playing chicken when he returned?

    • Must have been Tebow magic.

      • Seriously those 2 were great players but we have some pretty decent players who came on in the 2nd half last year to pick up the slack. Combine that with the changed dimensions and the offense is the LEAST of my concerns.

        • This. Because the biggest concern has to be the starting rotation. IMO, it’s by far the worst in the NL east and probably in the lower bottom across all 30 teams.

          • It could be, of course it could be a surprise as well… We have no idea. There are a LOT of if’s which makes it one of the worst. However, what IF Johan returns and is able to pitch at even a semi-decent level, Dickey continues to do what he has done for 2 years, Niese puts it together for a full season, Pelfrey just returns to 2010 and Gee continues what he did last year? Then you have at least a chance at a decent staff. That being said, of course those are too many if’s to depend on at all.

            • Anything is possible in baseball. If those things happen, I’ll be doing the Snoopy dance.
              On paper right now though, it’s not looking good…..

              • Agreed, although on paper, (not to start the 200 innings debate again) I do see at least 4 pitchers capable of tossing 200 innings if they stay healthy. At least that with a “better” bullpen will be something…

  • WAR counts defense, Clayton’s post was only about offense, so why are you using WAR? And i think the loss of Beltran(keep in mind that he played under 100 games for us) and Reyes will be offset by having healthy seasons from Davis and Wright.

    • Very true, those 2 can help. Also having full seasons from Duda and Murphy should help that.

    • Vin you’re right,Beltran played less than 100 games and amazingly he still led the team in HR’s and RBI’s.

      • Not really that amazing when you consider the injuries to Wright, Davis, Murphy and Duda getting more playing time when Beltran left.

  • I’m really not sure how my expectations could be any more tempered.

    • NJstuck — You speak for a lot of us. We’ve been hammered and we’ve been tempered.

  • Reyes with two stints on DL, still scored over 100 runs. I can’t see anyone on roster doing that.

NL East Standings

TeamWLPct.GB
Braves4230.583 -
Phillies3537.4867.0
Nationals3436.4867.0
Mets2740.40312.5
Marlins2248.31419.0

Last updated: 06/19/2013

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