13
2011
The Downside To Upside and the Downsizing of the Mets
An article by 
I read a good post this morning from Steve Popper of the Bergen Record who wrote a little bit about seldom discussed return for losing Jose Reyes – the compensatory picks.
He writes that “draft picks have been the lure for this front office” because they are “confident they can rebuild the Mets’ farm system through smart scouting and drafting.”
As I said before, I’m all for that, but still wonder if that by itself is a complete road map to victory. Ultimately it will still take free agents to at least fill in the remaining pieces of a championship caliber team. Since the death of the reserve clause, there has never been a World Series team built solely on the backbone of a farm system. Free agents always have and always will seal the deal for any team’s post season aspirations. That takes money – a resource that is in very short supply these days in Flushing.
The old saying goes, “It takes money to make money”, which is very true especially in a baseball sense. But with the Mets decidedly determined to cut spending and slash payroll by what could be 40%, how can they possibly make money?
To answer that one must first consider the primary source for a team’s revenue – their fans. The more fans you have, the higher your revenue streams – a fact that is undeniable. But how do you maintain and increase the flow of fans to the ballpark? It’s simple and it’s the number one rule in show business and let’s not kid ourselves, baseball is a show business. You have to give the audience a show worth paying for… A product worth watching again and again. Do that and you have a blockbuster hit, fail and you have a big budget flop.
Now on to the draft pick strategy that the front office has undoubtedly embraced. The last time I checked, I was pretty sure these three head honchos now running the Mets, got their street creds in Oakland, where they are currently having a huge fire sale in advance of Black Friday. Here is a franchise drenched in this philosophy of drafting smart and winning, and yet they are a shining example of how prone to failure that can be. Draft picks are a crap-shoot, much like throwing money on a black-jack table in Vegas. You may get lucky once or twice, but the odds are stacked heavily against you – and the house always wins.
There are plenty of other Oakland’s in the league, mostly forced to focus on the farm because of financial restraints, and Lady Luck hasn’t been kind to any of them either. I doubt she will be so kind to the Mets.
Has anyone in the current regime, particularly Paul DePodesta who is charged with overseeing this great undertaking, ever drafted a player as good as Jose Reyes, the one they intend to replace with their draft compensation?
I recently learned that the Brandon Nimmo pick in last June’s draft was more a product of Chad MacDonald than Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta combined. “It was his pick all the way”, a person with knowledge of the situation told me. MacDonald has since resigned after less than a year with the Mets and joined the San Diego Padres. Hopefully, Nimmo will prove to be a nice parting gift, but we have about five years before we get that answer.
What am I leading up to here? I’m not really sure. I’m very skeptical of this whole process largely because it only works 10% of the time and relies more on luck than any inherent knowledge of baseball analytics.
The greatest scouts in the game are great because they spotted one or two future stars in their career among hundreds of flops. As I said, some teams are forced into this draft-only philosophy not by choice, but because of low-revenue streams and smaller markets. I guess I never thought that the Mets would ever find themselves in this situation. But here we are.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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This is so depressing. We’re going to hell in a handbasket.
Ah Joe, i feel your pain…do i sound like Bubba Clinton? Half-joking. What else are we to do? The Wilpons lost $$$$’s and will in the casino that is Wall Street. i take solace that Alderson & Co are smart baseball guys that will use a blended draft / FA approach to rebuild the team. The TWINS have had just 2 losing seasons since ’00; the final 4 teams in the MLB playoffs had payrolls in the $90mm range. It can be done.
i think it takes 3 – 4 years to fairly evaluate a rebuilding GM / FO team. By year 3, they should begin to contend; in year 4 make the playoffs.
Progress can be accelerated by trading some key players (Wright) for guys MLB-ready or close to it. i think Alderson & Co can do it.
We shall see.
progress can also be accelerated by adding key FAs as the nucleus is gelling. That is IMO what the comment one of the FO made (Depo?) meant (moneyball with money). Problem is, they don’t have the money!
letting reyes go isn’t about getting draft picks. It’s about the Mets being broke.
no way you could possibly expect the comp picks to produce a player of that caliber. that logic makes more sense when you are talking about an older guy, like when Wagner netted a pick for the Red Sox. Turning expiring assets into picks is a good thing, turning star players into them falls into the “better than getting nothing” category.
but ti is still true for any team without unlimited funds that you need to build some kind of affordable/controllable foundation 1st before you are in a position to layer on the missing link FAs .
“letting reyes go isn’t about getting draft picks. It’s about the Mets being broke.”
That sums it all up. No need for all this other talk about the subject.
The idea is that when the Mets can boast ten or twelve legit starting players (pitchers included) from the system that are cost-controlled, they can go out and buy the three or four impact players to complement them, plus bench players that aren’t the minor-league deal type. The other “Oakland’s” as you put it can get those ten or twelve players, but still don’t have the money to buy the impact players, which is why it doesn’t work for them. The Mets plan on getting their money situation sorted out, then they’ll be active in buying free agents, buying out arb years of their kids, etc.
It’s a good plan. Let’s hope it works.
Translation – When baeball america lists 10 mets in the top 100 We will play baseball again!
Legit?
Ike Davis isn’t Legit?
Baseball America doesn’t rank major league players. Thanks for playing.
No they rank those “LEGIT” Minor Leaguers!
You failed reading comprehension in school didn’t you?
WHAT CONSTITUTES LEGIT?
Can’t wait to hear how you spin this without using Baseball America as a hallmark!
I failed reading comprehension? I’m talking about ten or twelve legit starting players and you start talking about minor leaguers. Come on, stick to the topic and we can talk.
LOL And what needs to happen before you believe they have them and COST CONTROLLED
Where will those COST CONTROLLED players come from?
And what MUST they do before you believe they are LEGIT starting players?
And lets count now why don’t we…
We have 5 Legit starters and about to have 4 after Reyes goes…
Going in the right direction you say don’t you?
I think we are. Omar left us a few pieces to add to the few already up here. I hope they pan out.
i have been a mets fan since my uncle was paid $8,000 to go try out for them in 1971. i have endured losing seasons but enjoyed watching them and hoping for the best when the best was john don hahn in center and john milner at first. i remember dan frisella coming in from the bullpen to try to close out a game. i remember lute barnes and ron hodges and teddy martinez. i have loved and cheered for the orange and blue for 40 years and even when they traded seaver, but if reyes goes then f- the mets. i mean it. after he goes, david wright is next and what young kid coming up through our farm system is going to stay around when they see what little regard we had for jose reyes ? david wright was right,.. if jose goes then anyone can go. that includes the fans who truly love the team and can’t stand to see it’s fans and the memories be violated as the COUPONS
yes, ‘any’ you make great sense. We can’t afford the market on Reyes, so we’re forced to take the draft pick(s). i agree, that’s a foolish exchange in the case of Reyes but, given our finances, that’s the best we can get. i just hope the new CBA doesn’t clip the draft picks too much the ‘losing’ teams–that’s us in this case, unfortunately..
That doesn’t make sense because if the Mets knew they didn’t have the money to bring him back, then they would have traded him and gotten a better return for him.
vinny, who knows, that may have been the plan at the end of June, but as soon as he went on the DL with a hammy issue right at the beginning of July, and jackpot went out the window.
it was never about draft picks. the COUPONS decided way back in spring not to try to sign reyes when he could have been signed alot cheaper. they did’nt want him at any price even close to what he is worth. they are NOT out to improve the team and alderson is just pushing the best we have out the door to lower our debt to income ratio so that the COUPONS can offer someone other owner wannabe a low cost team in a big market city. to see marlins websites calling our jose the marlins new starting shortstop hurts beyond anything else i have ever experienced as a mets fan. my team is gone and the memories are dead. COUPONS, u have gotten what u wanted. my only hope is that i am correct that thousands of mets fans leave and that many more boycott the team and it’s merchandise until the team is sold. COUPONS, u disgust me.
I’m with you Peter.I have been boycotting since 2009. I went to check out the new park and haven’t been back since.The Tampons are a disgrace.I hope that place resembles Shea in the late 70′s in 2012.If they can’t afford the team MLB should force them to sell it.
Why can’t we sign Reyes, and build the farm system through smart scouting and drafting at the same time?
Why can’t we do both?
It’s unbelievable the amount of fans that just lay down for this Alderson character and succumb to whatever he says.
If you sign Reyes, and who knows? If the relationship was better and they were able to actually talk and you can convince Reyes that you’re trying to win in 2012 and you need him to be a part of that future then maybe he signs for 4 or 5 years w/whatever option or details you want to bestow him with. And maybe you only pay him like 16 million or so for the first year.
So now our infield is Wright, Reyes, Tejada, & Davis, OF is Bay and Duda and pitching is Santana, Niese, Dickey, Gee, Byrdak, Acosta, & Beato.
I say that’s a pretty good start to go and compete for the Wild Card now make whatever trades/signings you have to do with whatever money you have left and let’s go compete.
And tell the FANS that you are aware everybody is aware of the financial situation the team is in but we’re STILL going to going into 2012 fighting for a post season spot. Or say it however best you can to help generate enthusiasm in the fan base = make money sell tickets
More or less that’s the plan I would sell and actually attempt to do.
I just don’t understand what the hell is going on around here, i think a portion of the fan base has lost their minds not wanting to compete
The reason ‘you can’t believe’ is b/c you’re constantly mixing apples and oranges.
None of this is Alderson’s doing – it’s all the Wilpons.
Reyes walking is all about the money, or lack thereof. That’s squarely on the Wilpons shoulders. Sterling Mets are broke. Wilpons went from announcing the Madoff problem wouldn’t affect the Mets operations at all, to secretly borrowing from MLB, to trying to bring in investors, to slashing the operating budget.
Alderson was brought in to do nothing more than tread water while the Wilpons try and climb out of their financial hole all the while keeping their fingers crossed they can hold onto the team.
Hindsight tells me now that if the Madoff scandal was far worse – rather than just bad – for the Wilpons from the get go – maybe the Mets would be well onto their way to new ownership right now. You know, an owner who actually has some money…..
If the Mets can’t afford Jose, or if they aren’t willing to sign him for a lot of money, they made a big mistake by not trading him. Because if they traded him, they would have gotten a pretty good return back, but since they didn’t, they are only going to get two picks in return. And the players the would gave gotten in the trade would be a lot closer to the majors than the two picks.
So, even if what your saying is true(it’s not) but even if it is, they still did a bad job handling this.
You’re right Vinny they should’ve traded him but I think the reason why they didn’t trade him during the season was because they had Einhorn in the wings with a 200 million dollar injection to take care of some off the debt and pay Jose. Once Einhorn was out then we started hearing more about the Mets not wanting to get into a bidding war as oppsosed to mid season reports when we were hearing the Mets are prepared to offer Reyes a 100 million dollar contract,right before he got hurt. Somehow part of the fanbase has forgotten how the Wilpons have always run the Mets and now they want to put the blame on a GM for not spending.I have never seen or heard of a GM who by his own choice does not want to spend any money and does not want to win.I have a hard time believing that knowing the way the Wilpons have run this team.
I mean really is the offseason over already?People are talking about laying down and doing nothing and ripping the team apart.Same old story every day on this site,it’s comical to think that nothing will be done because on November 13th no moves have been made.
I agree with you Vinny. They should have traded him.
I think they ( the Wilpons ) were hoping that the lawsuit would have been settled in their favor by now, and that they would be able to afford him. They also probably figured they would get a little more in ticket sales in the last month or two with Reyes in the hunt for a batting title.
That was a big mistake: thinking that a legal process involving billions of dollars would magically play itself out in a month or two. But that’s what they did, and this is how we the fans pay for it.
Sandy on the other hand is in a tough spot. He knows the team is broke, but he can’t just come out and say that without getting fired. So he has to just sit around and play coy politician until the team has some financial stability.
Just to make this clear, I didn’t want Jose traded….BUT if there was no way whatsoever that the Mets could afford him(like some people here are now saying), and Alderson knew about that, then yes, Reyes should have been traded.
Again, I agree.
I think in July, there was about a 5-10% chance that the financial problems would have blown over by now, and that Reyes could be signed.
Those are pretty long odds – the front office took them and lost.
I really wish that the league or the players union pushes the Wilpons out before the winter meetings.
I’d rather just know that the team is broke, under MLB control, and looking for an owner and a real future. This is NY, the money will come from somewhere, but the Wilpon regime is purgatory, and it sucks.
How do you know? If what other teams were offering Sandy was less than he thought he could get in compensation picks, why would he pull the trigger? This is not a Sandy apologist post, but rather a fact o’ the matter post. If they were going to get something back better than what they thought they would get if Reyes walked, then yeah, the pooch done be screwed. But if the offers weren’t wonderful, this well may have been the best option (assuming the Mets don’t sign him). And I do want them to sign him.
and you can’t trade a guy on the DL.
besides, he is a speed guy, who was absolutely not at full strength (or running much) when he came back. The fans saw it, so of course other teams saw it.
so, who was giving up a couple of prime prospects for 2 months of a guy that was probably 50/50 to go back on the DL?
they might have been right to worry too. thru 7/2 (last game before the DL) he hit .354 with a .927 OPS (huge) and 30 SBs. from 7/19 (off DL) he hit .305 (still good) with a .784 OPS (nothing special) and only 9 steals. Big difference 1st half to 2nd half.
Eggs-actly.
I disagree completely. You can totally trade a guy on the DL if he’s as good as Reyes.
Would you trade two prospects for Ryan Howard right this minute ? I would.
you can theorize all you want.
We have a budget and whatever that budget is WORK WITH IT. That’s all I’m saying.
There’s enough there to compete. And your boys are supposed to be statistical analysis gurus so start finding good players at low cost and start competing. And you or I don’t know what the relationship between Alderson and Reyes is and that means a lot. If you can sign Reyes for what the Mets consider doable than let’s start getting the rest of the roster filled out via trades/free agency and start competing.
SorrySrt but Wilpon might set the budget but it is Sandy determining what he plans to spend it on!
And I have already proposed that he could fill all the holes people seem to think need filling using MiL kids who many think are not worth developing because they are never going to amount to anything instead of spending it on FA losers like Boyer and Crapuano!
They could EASILY resign Reyes, Get two BP arms and fill in the rest of the holes using MiLer like FMart and Misch while they are losing wholesale in the name of building up via the draft!
You might find another kid like Turner who surprises and plays a decent game of baseball for league minimum!
To purge your payroll of PROVEN players in the name of using that money on UNPROVEN reclamation products is NOT SMART SPENDING!
Spend it on the guys who will actually help you win a game and fill in with the league minimum crap everyone suggests is down in our MiL system!
Thats is the SMART SPENDING plan!
Using the money to keep the good players and trying to make the crap you own worth having instead of someone else’s crap to take their place!
So you want to blame the WIlpons for setting the budget fine but it’s all on Sandy how he SPENDS that budget!
And if he signs more like he did last offseason I would rather watch Pat Misch pitch for league minimum than the guys Sandy is intending to use the money he won’t spend on reyes to get!
the owner almost always has final say on the major deals. for every team. So it is likely not accurate to say that if Sandy has a budget of 22mill (to throw out a number) he can spend 18 on Jose and the other 4 on 8 minimum wage guys to just fill out the roster.
besides, they had that last year, and it didn’t really work out too well!
“Or say it however best you can to help generate enthusiasm in the fan base….”
Every day we read your enthusiastic posts. Let’s make them required reading for our fan base. lol.
Good question. Because Wilpons are quasi-broke. Plan B man. wish it weren’t so. But Plan B.
Here is the issue with the draft Joe.
You can’t draft an entire team in ONE of them.
So lets say you get two LEGIT as these Salshers say we will be getting in a single draft (actual is far less one at best)
So you get two this year and lets estimate they take 3 years to get to the MLB level.
Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada will be close to done on exclusivity by then.
(2015) Gain two, lose two
(2016) A year from then you might add two more (we have 4 of 14 players needed)
(2017) Another year passes you add two more, 6 of 14
Do the math!
Hello 2025 before we have the guys they want to have before they are willing to spend a penny!
The Mets will be in another city long before their goal is achieved!
Before Spring training 2011 Alderson said that he needed to see Reyes play before offering a contract. Then as the year progressed it was “well we don’t negotiate during the season, Then in August after the trading deadline it was, “we’re interested in talking with Reyes about a contract
I don’t think the Mets had any intention of resigning Reyes.
But why didn’t the Mets trade Reyes?
Jose Reyes could have been traded for Hunter Pence
Jose Reyes could have been traded for Michael Bourne
Jose Reyes could have been traded for a number of prospects.
What starting pitchers were available at the trading deadline?
I
They didn’t trade Reyes because: 1) we Fans woulda screamed; 2) the thought was we’d get multiple draft picks; 3) we thought we ‘might’ be able to sign Reyes…
And fans aren’t going to scream if the Mets let him walk away in FA?
and they also didn’t trade him because he was on the DL with a bad hammy.
It was also Reyes’ agent that said they did not want to negotiate during the season, not the mets.
Amateur scouting, especially at the high school level, has improved significantly since the beginning of the last decade. The success rate for top prospects to become everyday major leaguers is much higher.
You get more fans spending money on your team if you win, and the Mets aren’t close to winning with Philly and Atlanta both significantly better than them and Washington making big strides as well.
Yet Alderson publicly criticized Washington for signing Werth to such a big contract. Maybe so but the bottom line is winning ballgames and they’re getting better than us.
So an infield of Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Jose Reyes, & David Wright
And OF of Jason Bay and Lucas Duda
the fences lowered and moved in
And staff of Santana (provided he’s good to go and he’s always saying how good he feels on Twitter), Dickey, Niese, Gee, Beato, Byrdak, & Acosta
You don’t want to go to war with that? You don’t even want to try and make trades/sign players with whatever budget you’re assigned?
You just want to lay down and give up and expect fans to come to the park?
You can do all of that other stuff like waiting for the future while competing.
Yeah, that Werth contract is looking soooooo good for them right now. Alderson must be feeling soooooo embarrassed by how wrong he was on that signing.
That rotation, bullpen, and defense is still god awful. Who are you signing and trading for and what are you giving up?
I don’t know who i’m signing and who i’m trading for yet Im not a GM but just because I don’t now who’s out there off the top of my head doesn’t mean there aren’t any players that are out there for the take because there are…. and I disagree with you BIG TIME about the defense.
An infield of Davis, Tejada, Reyes, and Wright is very good w/the exception of your boy Wright who is the weakest fielder of the 4. The other 3 are above average so you can win with that.
The staff of Santana, Niese, Gee, & Dickey can definitely use another HEALTHY starting pitcher or 2 and who knows? Maybe Gee, Niese, or Pelfrey, etc. can be used in a package to acquire one
The bullpen of Acosta, Byrdak, & Beato can be supplemented by signing / trading for a closer depending on your other moves made. I would like to trade/sign for a HEALTHY starter and move Capuano to bullpen but I think Cap is going to go for more money as a starter. We’ll see.
So i disagree with you big time that we don’t have a nucleus to compete vs. Braves/Marlins/Nat. But if the Mets don’t show any attempt to fight then they definitely will fall behind Florida..starting with losing Reyes to them
As for Werth? Sure it was too much money but the Nats are getting better and that’s all that matters. You go ahead and waste time thinking about the money they spent. And oh, Werth can still turn it around and have a few big years starting with 2012. It’s VERY POSSIBLE and it if it does happen than whaddya know? That signing may pay off in the end.
Oh, and if Daniel Murphy proves healthy in ST or plays some winter ball before that and continues to impress with his hitting and even if Wright is healthy in ST if I’m the GM than I explore moving Wright for high quality major league ready starting pitching and replace him with Murphy at 2B. In my opinion Murphy played a better defensive 3B than Wright even though he’s brainless on the base paths. I would designate a coach to work with Murphy a LOT during ST to teach him what and what not to do on the bases. Drill it into him
Anyway that’s another option that can be explored because I believe Murphy is a MUCH better big spot hitter than Wright. Davis and Murphy can be two of the best clutch hitters on the Mets right now but we still need more. You can even move Wright and Pagan in a 3-way deal. There’s a LOT that can be explored.
Is that too much work for Alderson? Or is it easier for him to just destroy things and rely on an uncertain future and unproven prospects.
Is that too much effort and thought being put into trying to win for Alderson? If so than I don’t have the effort to come to the ballpark.
And how do you know any of this isn’t happening? You’re just guessing because someone isn’t tweeting the play-by-play of Alderson’s day. And Wright doesn’t have the trade value to bring back major league ready starting pitching right now.
Go to war with that? Against the Phillies and Braves? Lay off the sauce for a little while, it’s really clouding your judgement.
Right on! What gets me is all the saps that soak all this propaganda up as if any of these clowns have any record of success to show in the last ten years. I dont see any Toronto and San Diego dynastys, does anyone else?
I haven’t seen any Mets dynasties, has anyone else?
I haven’t seen anyone lining up to hire Omar Minaya as GM (or anything else), has anyone else?
I haven’t see any rings on Jose Reyes’ fingers, has anyone else?
Omar HAS had offers from other teams. Read this:
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5932277
“Former New York Mets GM Omar Minaya said he plans to sit down with current Mets GM Sandy Alderson after the New Year to discuss a potential new role in the organization.
Minaya told ESPNNewYork.com that he has multiple offers on the table. He plans to remain in baseball in some capacity next season, though he said nothing is definite.
Well, I’d like to hear from him first,” Alderson said. “But, to reiterate, he and I have been friends for a long time. I have great respect for him as a baseball person. There’s always room for somebody with his capabilities.”
That wasn’t an offer. Minaya is still on the payroll. They simply extended him a courtesy and tried to see if they could get some value out of him.
As for the offers and his being in baseball, what capacity has that been? A talking head?
The organization was making money – about $26 million in 2009. In 2010 FORBES reported the Mets lost $6 million. OK, what happened to that other $20 million? And thus why the need to borrow $25 million from MLB, cut 20 percent of the staff and create this past year’s fire sale of KRod and Beltran when we were right in the thick of the chase for the wildcard?
28,000 paying an average 33% (conservative guess) brings in the same revenue as 42,000 in the old ballpark. Fred and Jeff recognized that attendance figures are nice but making even more money was even better. Unfortunately, they counted on more than 28,000 a game and by catering to the more affluent and not the average fan many stayed away – even when the park was a novelty. Going to a game simply became unaffordable.
The Wilpons said their investments were way too diversified to affect the team and perhaps that means they are withdrawing what they can from the Mets (including jobs) to make up for those other losses. A real nasty accusation to make on my part, but after observing their behavior in building a park catering to those with money to spend and giving little thought to anyone else (don’t forget we’re deprived of seeing a lot of left field from the upper promenade so those sitting in the expensive restaurant underneath could be closer and better angled to see the game) I wouldn’t put it past them. If that is not the case they have only themselves to blame for creating such reputations.
actually, using your numbers, it would be what happened to the 32mill.
2009 was the first year of the park, and attendance was good (lots of tickets sold before the season). 2010? not so much.
they went from about 3.1mill to 2.4 mill. so a drop off 700K (even more counting fannies in the seats).
if the average fan brought in $50 (probably conservative) to the Mets pockets, that is $35,000,000 right there.
that right there explains why the team is so broke. They forecasted based on keeping the park pretty full. having ticket sales fall off a cliff just slaughtered cash flow, and when you are leveraged up the wing wang, that is the kiss of death.
not much different than a 2 paycheck family buying a big house with a huge mortgage, assuming they both would have jobs plus OT. then 1 loses their job, and the other loses OT. Suddenly, you can’t make the payments, and the vacation in Florida is out the window.
right now, Jose is the vacation!
Love the new looks JoeD.
Been away with some health issues but glad I came and saw this post by you and I give the a big THUMBS UP!
How many teams, Royals, Pirates, Oakland, etc in the past few year have re-built their team only on their draft?
The Oakland A’s experiment with Moneyball in the late 80″‘s to early 90′s was a luck cause since then, living on this motto they have drafted good players and wind up losing most of them when the FA time comes up and they refuse to spend the money to keep their core players to build around the young players coming up.
Mets are in a different situation and ownership is mostly responsible for the financial situation that they didn’t see the bubble burst coming and tied up lots of money in real estate and did not have the right baseball people running the team when that window between 2005-2008 was there and the “right” FA’s might have made a difference building around Jose and David but bad relief pitcher investments and no major league ready talent to bring up when people like Alou or Wagner or Pedro or Johan got hurt.
Anyway great to be back and continued luck with MMO and your health JoeD.