8
2011
Phoreshadowing The Phillies’ Phuture
An article by 
In making the final out of the Phillies’ season for the second straight year, Ryan Howard suffered an apparent Achilles injury, falling to the ground and writhing in pain as the Cardinals celebrated their unlikely division series victory. In a worst-case scenario (torn ACL), Howard would miss nine months or more while recovering from surgery to repair the tear. In other words, Howard’s 2012 season would be kaput.
Although Ryan Howard batted only .253 for the Phillies in 2011, he was their main power source, providing 33 HR and 116 RBI in 152 games. For a team that plays half of its games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Howard was the only player to hit over 20 HR. Free-agent-to-be Raul Ibañez was second on the team with exactly 20 HR and 84 RBI. Take out Howard and the soon-to-be 40-year-old Ibañez, and no Phillie hit more than 17 HR (Shane Victorino, of all people, hit 17 bombs) or picked up more than 63 RBI (accomplished by Jimmy Rollins, another free-agent-to-be who has already gone on the record as saying he won’t accept a hometown discount to re-sign with the Phillies).
So if Howard doesn’t play in 2012 and Ibañez leaves via free agency, the Phillies’ lineup will look an awful lot like the Mets. Even with those two players in the everyday lineup for Philadelphia in 2011, the Mets still scored more runs (718) than the Phillies (713), produced more doubles (309 to 258), triples (39 to 38), hits (1,477 to 1,409), stolen bases (130 to 96) and even led them in walks (571 to 539). That’s right. The Mets, who used Daniel Murphy as their cleanup hitter for 33 games, were walked 32 more times than the Phillies, who supposedly have a more fearsome lineup.
Now take Howard and Ibañez out of that lineup and what do you have left? A declining and oft-injured second baseman in Chase Utley, an as-yet unsigned shortstop who will be 33 in November and who has a career OBP of .329 primarily out of the leadoff spot in the batting order, and a 36-year-old third baseman who produced a .277, 5 HR, 50 RBI season in 122 games played (numbers eerily similar to Justin Turner’s 2011 season). Basically, the Phillies offense will be led by Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. I mean, catcher Carlos Ruiz led all Phillies’ starters (minimum 100 games played as a Phillie) in batting average with a .283 mark. When your most consistent hitter over a full season is Carlos Ruiz, that says a lot about your offense.
Does anyone really think Chase Utley is going to return to his All-Star caliber form? Utley played in 103 games in 2011 and hit .259 with 11 HR and 44 RBI. Think about that. Batting in the middle of that lineup and playing in that bandbox of a ballpark, Utley managed only 44 RBI in 454 plate appearances. To put that into perspective, Daniel Murphy drove in five more runs (49) than Utley did in 31 fewer plate appearances (423). Even Josh Thole (40 RBI) drove in more runs per plate appearance (386 PA) than Utley did in 2011. Since 2007, when Utley hit .332, his batting average has gone down every year. He hit .292 in 2008, .282 in 2009, .275 in 2010 and bottomed out at .259 in 2011. The Phillies will have to deal with his declining production for the remaining two years and $30 million of his contract.
Like the rest of his teammates, Chase Utley is literally down and out.
If Jimmy Rollins doesn’t return, who will be the Phillies’ starting shortstop? (It better not be Jose Reyes.) Surely, they can’t entrust the position to Wilson Valdez, he of the .294 OBP in 2011? But maybe his defense is better than Rollins. Uh, actually it’s not. Rollins played in 142 games and made only seven errors, while Valdez played in 99 games and committed nine errors.
Ever since Scott Rolen showed his brotherly love for Philadelphia by leaving the city in a trade in 2002, the Phillies have been searching for his replacement. They tried David Bell from 2003-2006 and got nothing. They employed a trio of third sackers in 2007 (Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms, Abraham Nuñez), all of whom started at least 50 games at the hot corner. They tried Pete Happy (Pedro Feliz) for two seasons in 2008 and 2009, before finally settling on Placido Polanco in 2010. This is the same Placido Polanco who was acquired in the Scott Rolen trade in 2002 and replaced him at third base for the remainder of that season before moving over to second base in 2003 and 2004 to accommodate David Bell. Once Chase Utley was called up to the team, Polanco was out of a job and was traded to Detroit in 2005, where he blossomed, hitting .311 in four seasons with the Tigers. So of course, the Phillies re-signed him prior to the 2010 season and have seen his numbers wilt.
As of right now, Hunter Pence is the only regular position player on the Phillies who isn’t north of age 30. The pitching staff of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt might be truncated by one in 2012, as Roy Oswalt has a $16 mutual option for the 2012 season. However, Oswalt went 9-10 for a team that won 102 games, finished the year with his second-highest ERA over a full season in his 11-year career, and spent almost two months on the disabled list. If the Phillies think that’s worth $16 million, who am I to stop them?
Vance Worley might be able to replace Oswalt in the rotation, but is he for real? In parts of two seasons with the Phillies, Worley is 12-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 starts. But this great start wasn’t something that could have been predicted after looking at his numbers in the minor leagues. Worley started 76 games over parts of four seasons in the minors. In those starts, he was barely above .500, going 25-23. His ERA was unimpressive (3.80) and his WHIP (1.25) wasn’t exactly among the league leaders. He also wasn’t a strikeout pitcher in the minors, averaging 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Then he comes to the major leagues, where hitters aren’t familiar with him and he lowers his ERA by a full run, while upping his strikeout rate to 8.1 K/9 IP. At least Cole Hamels’ major league success followed an impressive minor league career, one in which he went 14-4 with a 1.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and registered 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
You didn’t think I’d mention Cole Hamels and not show his photo, did you?
There are too many question marks surrounding the Phillies in 2012. Their position players are getting older and piling up more injuries. Their main source for power might miss the entire 2012 season, a season in which his new five-year, $125 million contract kicks in. Their left side of the infield might consist of Placido Polanco and Wilson Valdez, two players in their mid-30s, who combined for six home runs and 80 RBI in 2011. If John Mayberry (15 HR, 49 RBI in 104 games) becomes the Phillies’ main power source in 2012, their lineup won’t look very scary at all.
Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee might continue to be All-Star-caliber pitchers for years to come. Or maybe they’ll both realize that they’re entering their mid-30s and will suffer the same setbacks the other thirty-somethings on the Phillies are. The Phillies are in more trouble than people think. Their seasons are ending earlier year after year (World Series losers in 2009, NLCS losers in 2010, NLDS losers in 2011), and that may be a sign of things to come.
For a team like the Mets, the gap between them and the Phillies might be as wide as it’s going to get. The Mets might not have to shorten that gap on their own. The Phillies might be helping them do it with their multiple albatross contracts and their inevitable meeting with Father Time. And it all began last night, when Ryan Howard’s Achilles decided to go kaplooey. Because of it, the Phillies’ dominance in the National League might soon be going kaplooey as well.
About the Author: Ed Leyro
Ed Leyro was hatched in the Bronx, but spent most of his youth in Queens at Shea Stadium. Apparently, all that time spent at Mets games paid off as Ed met his wife (The Coop) for the first time at Citi Field during its inaugural season. Guess the 2009 season was good for something after all. In addition to his work at Mets Merized Online, Ed also owns, operates and is head janitor at Studious Metsimus, where he shares blogging duties with Joey Beartran. For those not in the know, Joey is a teddy bear dressed in a Mets hoodie. Clearly, Studious Metsimus is not your typical Mets blog.
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good points on the offense, which i though would suck before the season. Rollins and Utley have both become injury guys. Anyone who signs Ibanez to any real money is a boob. I wonde rhow much money they have to spend??
I worry every day about them swooping in to get Reyes. Like you said that better not happen
The Phills have given up an awful lot of top prospects in getting to and staying on top. Those include Outman and Cardenas in the Blanton deal. Bourne for Lidge. Gose and Happ for Oswalt. D’Anaurd and Drabek for Halliday, and a raping of the Phillies in the Pence deal. Domingo Santana, Jonathon Singleton and Jarred Cosart.
All together that’s a lot of talent given up. Two decent LHP, a decent CFer (who they then traded to Atlanta for another LHP prospect, two tremendous OF prospects, three top RHP prospects and a top catching prospect.
In fact the Phillies in recent years have traded away more of Baseball America’s top 20 minor leaguers (in the league in which they compete) then we have at this very moment, and they have nine left over.
They have tread that slippery slope and now have only pitching on the way up when Halliday/Lee/Hamels deals are done and very little depth to replace those that fail and other than Ruiz replacement/backup are really deficient at position players because of those trades.
The Howard deal is a disaster, Rollins not worth the money going forward, Utley two more years to go before they need a 2nd basemen and nobody even close in the minors. 3B their best chance in is low A- and that’s the good news for them. OF is tapped so they’ll have to tread water with Pence/Victorino until their deals are up and if Brown/Francisco don’t come on their offense will just fall apart totally.
It’s very hard to keep a team going when it spends so many prospects and a couple of high draft choices on free agents but they’ve gotten more than fair value from most of their moves and now have to regroup. Hope guys can stay healthy until they can start replacing them. Live on pitching for a couple of years the way they lived on hitting in the first few years of their run.
It probably makes the most sense to let Rollins go and sign someone else’s free agent. Lose a late first round pick but get another one and a supplementary rounder too, and get younger at the same time. Take another rule 5 this year and a good long look at the non tender list and see if they get lucky like with Werth.
Their in a maintain and build underneath mode right now and whether or not they can pull it off will determine how quickly they come back to the pack. Amaro has only had to tinker and upgrade to this point, and had plenty of cash to do it with. Now he has to scramble and we’ll see how he does.
Overall eleven straight seasons with just one of them under .500, and that by just one game is pretty decent in and of itself but their run has so far included missing the post season by 1 game (2005), five consecutive NL eastern Division titles, two World Series appearances and one World Championship but I would bet anything that if that one World Championship is all they get, they’ll feel that they shortchanged themselves and the clock is ticking. Their coming back to the pack and Atlanta and Washington on on the way up and hopefully we are too.
Tick tock.
first of all you of all people shouldn’t be saying “we”
The Phillies have finished in 1st place the last 5 years with one World Series. You gotta give to get and if it takes prospects to do this than that’s the way it goes.
you can’t have your cake and eat it too. You want to win? And be successful for a long period of time? It’s gonna COST YA! That’s how life works – you pay the piper.
Talk to me after the Hot Stove season is done to see if this downward spiral continues. Some downward spiral..they were in the playoffs this year
I say “we” because I’m a Met Fan. Being a Met Fan doesn’t mean that I’m not entitled to point out things we’ve done that cost us the chance to win or point that things that helped other teams win.
If you don’t like it tough ****.
Most Met fans are fed up with having losing seasons. We’ve lost more games than we’ve won 12 times in the last 21 years. That’s why we’re advocating a more successful approach to building a winner than the one that has cost us those 12 losing seasons in the last 21 years.
The Phillies offense was good until their every day position players hit 31. Now that their over that age their collectively struggling. Injuries are starting to take hold, guys are slowing down and at some point the problem areas are not going to be able to be addressed with prospects and money. This team is teetering right now going forward and could go either way and that’s with Halliday, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt. Obviously there is only so far they could slip with those guys in the rotation but if every game is a one run affair……
Keeping it going is totally dependent on how their few “younger” guys like Pence, Victorino, Mayberry and Francisco do, how their young prospects like Brown, Worley, Colvin, Valle, May, Pettibone, Rodriguez, Aumont, Cisco and Rizzoti do and how well/long their older position players stave off injuries and decline.
There’s not a lot of position playing depth in their minors and their pen is springing a couple of leaks so if they don’t get enough offense their going to be playing an awful lot of one run games and that can burnout a bullpen faster than anything else turning a weakness into an achillies heal.
Some Met Fans don’t share your love of the fantasy baseball approach and have started to point out how unsuccessful it has been over a fairly long period of time. That doesn’t mean that we’re rooting for other teams, what it means is that we’d like the Mets to follow a similar approach as those more successful other teams so that someday maybe we’ll win five consecutive NL Eastern Division titles.
That’s not possible playing fantasy baseball every off season for 13 or so guys.
Hmm…since 1962 the Phillies have appeared in only ONE more WS than us and have the same number of WS wins as us.
And as many if not MORE losing seasons than us during that period of time!
Sounds to me like you see success more due to lack of long term memory than any insight you percieve in their success!
They are the flavor of this decade but more because the Braves and Mets suck these days than anything to do with the Phillies greatness!
When everyone in your division sucks it’s easy to win it and go to the playoffs every year!
Agee your anti-Omar fangs are showing again. You’re not going to develop a minor league system with two clowns like Depodesta and Alderson running the show. You’re only FOOLING yourself. Firing Omar was the DUMBEST thing we’ve ever done. Take the checkbook away and Omar would have been the best guy suited to bring us upper echelon talent thru drafts and IFAS.
Yeah, take the checkbook away and he would have been…… Too late now. People like you would have been killing him “for not doing anything to help this team.”
And I’m not anti-Omar, I’m anti Omar’s approach. Those are two completely different things and there is no question in my mind that if Omar didn’t have the checkbook he could have done a fantastic job. a job that would have lasted and won a few World championships.
Opportunity squandered. We finally got the right guy and he went all Harazin on us. Typical Mets. Even when you hire the right guy the results are still Harazin like.
Hey Harazin got a few good players too you know. Ordonez, Alfonzo, signed Endy, Dotal, drafted Izzy, Pulse, didn’t kill the farm like Phillips but yet they both wind up in the same place.
Only difference is that Minaya could have done it.
Opportunity squandered. Twenty five more years of lies on the way.
Does this signal a REVERSAL of your previous stance that the Phillies were GREAT team builders compared to Omar?
You see they didn’t BUY most of their talent as you blamed Omar for they Traded for it (Which you called a positive for them at the time) and now you seem to be going back and revising those moves as Negatives!
Omar did Buy talent to hold him over and compete while he was rebuilding the Minors which left his Minors in tact and now we have a ton of Kids who came up and did quite well just at the time most of those big contracts meant to compete and hold in the meantime ran out!
Phillies would seem to have not only mortgaged their payroll to win but also their farm system, While Omar only spent money to hold him while he was rebuilding!
And now all those kids he collected are poised to play and contribute regularly!
Truth is as much as you tried to paint Omar as a guy who made bad signings there really were only TWO you could say that were truly horrible!
Alou (which was not as horrible as you seem to suggest) And BAY who he was goaded into signing by the fans the media and just about EVERYONE ELSE who insisted Omar needed to make a move to gain credibility and keep his job!
it’s funny to me how one season seems to make people say the opposite of what they claimed a mere 7 months ago!
And interesting that the Two teams suggested as DOING IT THE RIGHT way are no longer looking like such genius anymore!
Our team ws better than the Braves except in the area of Pitching…
pretty much the same holds true for the Phils as well when you look at the player by player matchup.
And now those supposed genius’ seem to have painted themselves into a corner and we go on poating as if we knew this all along…
Well SOME did!
But they were painted as LOONS by the same folks who painted the Braves and Phillies SMART!
I didn’t change course. The Phillies made their deals AFTER they had their everyday eight and yes I’m a big believer in trading from the farm. When do that your not restricted to whoever is a free agent. When you have the farm to get the goods everyone’s available.
It didn’t just cost money. Minaya spent 3 #1 draft choices, two 2nd rounders and a third rounder just to get us/keep us competitive and that cost us down the road. Each hole we had/have could have bee filled for years to come.
When he kept the picks he drafted for right now. College relief pitchers. Five of them in the first 3 rounds. College Sr.’s too. Lesser talent but closer to the bigs. What kind of thinking is that?
Philly spent a LOT of good prospects but they still have more than we do and their results are better than ours too over the last five years. Even drafting behind us and trading so many good prospects they still have more than we do. Twice as many.
And Omar signing Alou because his job was on the line? What kind of buullll ssshhiiittt are you trying to make up now Metsie? His job wasn’t on the line. he was the toast of the Town. Signed Alou before the non tender lists even came out. Before the Giants even had to offer arb. just handed it over. Then chased Zito, signed Schowenweiss and Mota despite the suspension and spent the picks he kept on college relief pitchers.
Basically he inherited two of the eight position players and developed one other. You can claim Fern and Havens but when you count on just one guy for every position……
The Phillies built the nucleus of their team and THEN added to it. Minaya bought the nucleus and added it what he inherited and had nothing left to sustain it.
you’re just a flat out phoney/nutcase.
You have everything figured out and explain the reasons for every organizations failure or success without missing a beat. You truly are remarkable.
Oh, I forgot one thing, you figure out every organizations failure or success without missing a beat……..AFTER THE FACT.
It’s really unbelievable reading this guy’s words
Never disagrees with the specifics of what I write, just complains that I write it.
You really should get out of your cave more often mutton head.
Ok specifics….
List all the top Phillie Prospects and then List ours and PLEASE DO include, Tejada, Turner, Davis, Duda, and Murphy since they are all Omar guys!
Just because Sandy promoted them should not mean they are not still PROSPECTS of ours!
None other than Davis has actually won a full time position yet!
I just did. Today. In this very thread, check it out.
And how did they get their everyday 8 considering they only have 4 drafted by them players?
By trading away all the youth you just said in another thread left them Minors bare!
They spent money AND Kids to go for WIN NOW!
Something you have railed against at almost every turn!
They drafted Rollins, Hamels, Utley, Howard and got Victorino in the rule 5 and Werth off the non tender list and Ruiz as an IFA.
They had them all together at the same time while they were all in their prime for 5 years. Seven guys who fit in together and did the heavy lifting.
We had a multitude of transients surround Reyes and Wright.
Some teams can bring in a guy who immediately raises his game. Either an older guy like Furcal or Berkman or a younger guy like Cano and Gardner. Some how these guys all of a sudden start playing the way you hoped they might.
We bring guys in here and there’s nothing for them to fit into. No minimum standard. Nothing. Even a guy like Clemmens talked about just wanting to fit in with the NYY. Jeter and Knoblauch broke the ice with wearing catchers equipment but none of that exists with the Mets.
We saw signs of it changing this year and hopefully it will but the way the Mets have been for a long time is that they don’t stand for anything. There’s no soul or substance around the team. Just a new mercenary with his own priorities every year and collectively they all escape accountability.
This year was refreashing in that no one was coming over the hill in a white horse. They had to stand there and fight it out, out gunned or not and I think they grew a set of balls.
Finally.
We saw signs of it changing because it was year 6 in Omar’s development plan and all the guys he drafted performed and did BETTER than many of the Phillies you say were so smartly selected!
You mean like having 12 losing seasons in 21 years?
And how long did it take from the day they drafted Rollins till they got Ruiz to assemble that core?
Hint Rollins was drafted in 1996!
They made their first WS in 2008!
Omar took over the team on 2005!
Nearly made the WS in his second year!
So it basically took the Phillies 12 years to build that core (with lots of losing to pick above us! 796-823 from 96-08)
and you call them genius yet complain about Omar who didn’t even get HALF that time to build a winner and yet was in the playoff hunt 3 of the first 4 years of his tenure!
How long has it been since we won a World Series?
There is no reason why you can’t build up, and compete but our only method of competing is to spend top draft picks on right now. That precludes us from building up.
Sure there is no reason to not DO BOTH!
Which is precisely what Omar was doing!
He didn’t mortgage his Minors to WIN NOW!
He didn’t ship off all his GENIUS picks like the Phillies to get the pitching they FAILED to develop!
He went and bought talent to hold him while he also was drafting the Davis’ and Murphy’s, Turner’s and Tejadas, Harvey’s and Familias!
And made a competitive team in his SECOND year that was competitive for two more years WHILE he was WINNING and picking low in the draft he still managed to draft all the guys who showed great promise this year and not have to trade them away like the Phillies did!
Omar WAS doing BOTH!
But you seem to harp on that SINGLE 27th overall pick and the sandwich one for Wagner when he did what you applaud the Phillies for doing when THEY needed pitching to try and win a series!
You know 27th Overall can hardly be considered a TOP draft pick!
Phillies gave away far more in their quest to get pitching!
Even gave away two picks for some guy who isn’t even with them anymore he was that bad!
No where in anything i said could it even be remotely said that I was applauding them. All I did was report on what they did. I did state that they got good value out of it, which we didn’t, but other than that it was just a dispasionate accounting of what they did.
It does make sense to do things the way they did though. Six everyday regulars in their prime plus an ace to go and add pieces.
We did that with two guys and no ace and where did it get us?
Dude you act like no one has read anything you have posted before today!
You were applauding the Phillies before the season started and most of the time during.
Today was the first time this season you even hinted they were making mistakes by trading for all those guys you HAD BEEN claiming was the way to get those guys because they were smart!
Show me where I claimed they made mistakes.
I just stated what they did. I think they did the right thing. Try to keep it going. After all they did have a solid team.
Everyone with a functioning brain cell knows baseball is anything but a sure thing. They’ve won 5 consecutive NL East titles. We’ve won 7 in 50 years
Dude they just did EVERYTHING you complained about Omar doing!
Dude. They did it after they had a team, not in order to get a team.
Please don’t pretend that your dumber than a rock.
What did they win before Cliff Lee got there?
A Team that took them 7 years of losing miserably to build!
“What did they win before getting Cliff Lee?”
Umm, The World Series.
What does that have to do with how the Phillies built better than Omar?
When was the last time we had 12 years without a WS like the Phillies?
From 86-2000?
Who was running the show during that time?
Your idol McIlvane!
And it should be noted the Phillies went a lot longer than 12 years it was more like 15 since their last win before 2008 was in 1993!
Mcilvaine ran the team for 3 and a half years. Not ’86-2000 and the conversation is about how the Phillies built up, and then built out. Something we haven’t ever done.
Eleven straight years with only one sub .500 season and even that was just one game under (80-81)
Slough it off all you want, we’ve never gone 11 straight years with just one sub .500 season.
You cannot make our current situation any more palatable by disparaging other teams accomplishments.
“Slough it off all you want, we’ve never gone 11 straight years with just one sub .500 season.”
And niether have the Phillies!
And you know why we have never built up?
Look at how long any GM has lasted here!
Because we are not a ONE TEAM town like Philadelphia and Atlanta!
They can lose for more than a decade and still draw fans because there is no place else to go to see baseball where they play!
Here they go see the Yankees!
It took the Phillies 12 years to build what they did!
Took Atlanta even longer than that!
We were on the verge of doing that but then the guys who seem to have a problem with Omar buying players (mind you buying not trading and mortgaging youth for them) and you were all happy with that until a few guys got hurt and wanted heads to rioll REGARDLESS of how well they were actually doing by BUYING to be competitive while building the Minors so at some point they wouldn’t have to buy as much!
All the kids that just came up and the few still on the verge are all timing out at just about the time all those Signings you hate expired INCLUDING Wright and Reyes’ contracts!
So far Sandy has done NOTHING to help us within the next 5 years unless you count Wheeler!
His top overall pick is 18 years old, never played organized baseball and will not be ready for at least 3-4 years!
And by then we will have lost a few more seasons (especially if we play it your way and forsake the MLB squad for the Minors) and then you know who will be the one who sucked and didn’t do it the right way?
It will be Sandy!
It may not be fair but patience only goes so far!
Omar took a truly DECIMATED MiL system and made it MUCH better!
And while doing so also managed to make Three runs at the playoffs!
And as unfair as it would be to expect Sandy to repeat that feat, You argument about how WRONG Omar was will fall flat!
Beacause he didn’t have SUB .500 seasons until players got hurt!
Not because he didn’t build his team correctly because how the hell much can you build with only 3 years under your belt?
Phillies sure couldn’t do it and neither did the Braves!
But you seem to only count their SUCCESS not the 15-20 years of suck they had to GET all those players you think they were smart to take!
While WE were the team competing they were drafting and doing well because they picked on the opposite end of the round than we did!
The Phillies did go 11 straight season with just one losing season (80-81 2005) and the guys they drafted were avaiable to at least half the teams in MLB, or everyone. Multiple times.
Disparage their success all you want, it’s not going to put a trophy in our museum.
T agee for purposes of accuracy it was 2002 not 2005.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=zK6qR
Thanks MNJ for the correction. I think I was confusing the year they missed the playoffs by 1 game, no excuses but appreciate the correction.
Eleven straight seasons, one losing one, five straight Division titles, two World Series, one World Championship and people are disparaging them.
LOL.
You can’t make this **** up.
And all with players either half of teams or every team could have acquired.
Jeez.
Ummm 2011 – 2002 is 11 Years?
That must be Sabermetric years or something!
And that was preceeded by 7 losing seasons!
MNJ could you now correct his Math as well?
Nice post Ed. In Philly the talks already have begun about needing to get younger.
http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/phillies-talk/post/Its-time-for-the-Phillies-to-get-younger?blockID=574348&feedID=10156
A bit biased, but a lot of good points.
A couple comments:
–Polanco blossomed his 1st time in Philly, actually, posting a higher OPS almost every year compared to his Tiger years.
–It’s entirely possible that Utley moves to the less-stressful 1B spot (something talked about ever since he hit the Bigs) and they fill the 2B spot instead.
–To think that Ruben Amaro, Jr. won’t re-shape this team to keep it in contention — maybe not a dominant team, but a contender — is misguided.
–If Amaro brings back Valdez as anything close to a starter, the entire fan base will cover him in Cheez Whiz.
All that said, I do think the Phils have some tough years ahead, and a lot of work to do.
valdez won’t be the starter. Most likely if not rollins, they roll with the dude out of the minors, or hedge their bets with a 1 year veteran stop gap (like a Furcal type?)
“To think that Ruben Amaro, Jr. won’t re-shape this team to keep it in contention — maybe not a dominant team, but a contender — is misguided”
You hit the nail on the head. Before all this alleged doom and gloom for Phillies that’s anticipated in this post let me see Ruben Amaro NOT rise to the occasion this off season before I believe the Phillies are on the way out. And after a 5 consecutive years at finishing in 1st place I don’t care if the players were young OR 40. They won and that’s all that matters. EVERYBODY wants to build their farm as best they can but younger isn’t always better either. No team can win without seasoned veterans IN THEIR 30s.
unless he is just going to throw wads of money at a FA (and it seems that the only difference maker that fits one of their needs is Reyes), the trick is, what does he have to trade? Not much left in the system, and very little tradeable off the ML roster
Also, they technically need a closer also, since theirs is a FA (along with LF and SS).
Having to replace their clean up hitter and 1B just has to hurt, since that sure as heck wasn’t on the agenda before yesterday!
Without Howard, and with Utley a shell of what he used to be (assuming he doesn’t have a miraculous recovery), the only 2 legit ML hitters on the team (proven as starters) are pence and Vicky, and that isn’t exactly Ruth and Gehrig!
Anyway, the oint I was hitting at is that they actually have quite a bit of work to do, and not much in the way of chips to work with (and it remains to be seen how much can be done out of the FA pool, and what their budget is).
and look out if Houston runs out of good players to gift them!
Also, they technically need a closer also, since theirs is a FA (along with LF and SS).
They traded for Pence, Brown replaces Ibanez. Bastardo is their closer of the future and he’s better than Madson right now. Rollins will re-sign if not they go after Reyes. They just cleared 30 mil in payroll after this season.
howard gets a raise, and Lee jumps up about 10mill, so a good chuck of that 30 is spoken for.
Bastardo hit the skids in September, to the extent there was serious talk about leaving him off the playoff roster going on.
and you never know what happens when a guy just fof rookie year that pitched Middle relief and some set up suddenly is “the man”.
Brown had a terrible year overall. is he ready?
Sure, they have names to plug in. But they are definitely unproven or unknowns for now. No different than saying the Mets don’t have a hole at 2B, Havens is going to play it.
Oh, and if bastardo does go to closer, they have no other back end guys really.
And the SS in AAA is more likely to replace Rollins than Reyes is. Just a hunch! But I think Rollins comes back.
Same thing was said about them in 2008. Moyer, Burrell, Gordon, Stairs were getting old or sucked. Oh hello Cliff Lee, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Madson, Roy Halladay. They lost Feliz and Werth, oh hello Polanco and Pence.
as H.D. said, the real wild card is what the FO does to bring new guys in. But, keep in mind, their farm system has little to offer in immediate help, and their primary farm team (the Astros) are out of good players to gift them!
so a lot will have to do with how much of an impact rookies make most likely. Will Dom Brown finally show why he was a highly rated prospect? If Rollins goes, the dude they have in the minors for SS (that only finally hit at all this year), will he be able to survive in the majors?
losing Howard for the year is a huge blow of course. Utley has been sabotaged by his bad knees (taking away his power base).
anyway, most likely even more so than this year, the phils are going to live and die with their rotation. A couple problems there (one of the big guys gets hurt, or any slippage) and the wheels can come totally off!
I cannot disagree with anything you wrote, but I would caution everyone on one thing. From what we know about Ruben Amaro Jr. it’s that ever since he became GM, he’s never sat on his hands in the offseason and he always addresses the team’s needs whatever those needs are. We should be so lucky.
He also has no problem recharging his team at the trade deadline either. Last 4 trade deadlines deals: 2008 Blanton, 2009 Lee, 2010 Oswalt, 2011 Pence. As I said, we should be so lucky.
good thing Houston ran out of talent. He won’t have anything available this year!
Amen.
If Met fans SERIOUSLY think they wont go after Jose Reyes if Rollins bolts, they are living in La-La land…….
I agree! He will most likely be thier top target!
This was the Phillies year. Most sportswriters had them penciled in as WS champs when they came out of spring training. They were cocky and so were their fans, but life throws you curves and like the Yankees and the Braves and Red Sox they are all trying to figure out what went wrong. Big changes are coming to these clubs and in the meantime teams like the Mets and Nationals and D Backs and Rays and other teams are catching up. I think in ’12 we will have a lot of close races right to the end but we’ll know a lot more after the winter meetings and free agency signings. To end this post it is hard to bet against a LaRusa team but I like Rangers and Brewers in the series and the Rangers in six.
Lets not forget that as the Phils are getting older and less productive offensively, the Braves are getting more seasoned and established. The Mets have a chance here to sneak in a division title and get the trust of their fans back but it won’t be easy. Oh and the Nats are spending money like they are mad at it. This division has been tight for years and is getting tighter the Mets will have to become a more balanced team in the future and cannot have pitching like they did this year.
Nathan – I think it’s obvious to all that the Phillies are aging and the offense isn’t what it was. And while every team has a shot in the NL East, each has some big question marks:
PHILS = Is Howard’s injury major? If so, how do they replace him? Even if not, will he and Utley and Polanco and Victorino stay healthy? Who plays left – DomBrown, Mayberry, other? Does Rollins stay, and is it a good thing or bad thing if he does?
METS = Can Santana come back the way he was? Who are the other 4 SPs? Gee, Dickey, CYoung, Pelfrey and Niese aren’t exactly aces. Is Bay a complete bust? Is the outfield awful? The future of Reyes and Wright? Is Ike Davis going to be OK?
BRAVES = Can young pitching continue to develop (and rival the Phillies’ rotation)? Is Heyward going to reach his potential? How long can Chipper last? Where does Prado play?
MARLINS = Can starting pitching stay healthy? Is Javy Vazquez gone? Is Ozzie Guillen a genius or just plain crazy (and funny)? What is the real name of their closer? What is the deal with Hanley Ramirez? Is Matt Dominguez ready to take over at 3B?
NATS = Is 2013 their year – when Strasberg, JZimmermann and others have another year of experience? Is Bryce Harper ready now? Is that the real Jayson Werth? Are Desmond and Espinosa at their peak? Was Mike Morse a mirage?
We’ll have to check back after the GMs do their wheeling and dealing. But even as a Phillies fan, I see very clearly that the East could be full of beasts.
I like your assessment and very insightful and forward thinking (enjoy it, it may be the last compliment I give you) Only kidding! Rather than go team by team let me make a cople of highlights. I think if first reports are through, Ryan Howard could miss all of ’12 but the Phils could try to move Pence to first and put Mayberry in the outfield. There big question is will Rollins stay. That will be their key. I like the Nats, an up and coming team that surprised you whenever you watch them. Like you said they are spending (they draw from the DC area with mostly fed employees that make a lot of moneY) and seem to get the most from their players (Werth will be better in 2012 I believe). The Braves need a big bat and a 3rd baseman. Jones is hanging on and if they get a 100 games out of him they’ll be lucky. I think they may trade Heyward. It appears they have soured on him, like they did Francour. They have two legitimate closers in Kimbrel and Venters that could attract a big bat. There starting pitching nis real good. I like the Mets to improve in 2012 especially if Reyes stays and Bay bounces back. If Reyes goes or Wright gets traded I still think we’ll have a good defensive team but the offense will be significantly altered and I see Ike Davis as our clean up guy and Tejada leading off. I think we can be an 85 win team next year with a little luck and a few breaks along the way.
Mayberry will be playing 1B until Howard gets back.
As Met fans we should be concerned about what the Phillies will do in the off season now that Ryan Howard will be out for quite a while. As stated, Ruben Amaro Jr has never sat still in terms of recognizing his teams needs. With a team that a year ago was scoring runs with power, he now finds himself without Howard, with an even older Ibanez and of course no Jason Werth again. Werth’s replacements did not work out well initially and then got hurt.
Why wouldn’t Amaro make a big offer to Jose Reyes?
And Amaro still has another chip to play….if he resigns Oswalt to a slight raise and then trades him. Oswalt could still bring back a good bat. Would we trade David Wright for Oswalt and a prospect? Roy could well be what we need to get us some good starts for a few years so that we don’t rush Wheeler or Harvey too fast. Roy instead of Mike Pelfrey is a no brainer!
Ibanez is a FA and they won’t be resigning him.
and no, a team is not going to give up prime talent for Oswalt (and no chance they pick up his option to trade him IMO)
Last hurrah for Phils.
Good Piece Ed!
I have been trying to make comparisons of the Mets to the Phillies all year long to show everyone who wrongly looks at the standings alone and assumed that because they had such a lead that the Phillies must have the key to team building.
When you look at our players head to head, we match up quite well with all of them with the exception of SLG which has a lot to do with the bandbox they play in.
They will be big bidders in the Jose Reyes sweepstakes and if we don’t come close I would not be surprised to see Reyes take thier offer if for no other reason than to stick it to Rollins for his comments about Reyes leaving the last game of the season!
The Phillies also could use Murphy to play 1st base until Howard gets back and then take over 3rd when Howard returns!
Odd isn’t it how the Phillies could be improved by guys many here said were not worth squat!
it was all about the SP and closer.
if you had switched pitching staffs, they Mets would have won as many if not more games as the Phils did.
Exactly!
We actually scored more runs than the Phillies (5 more runs but more is more!)
The difference was our pitching gave up a ton of runs their Pitching did not!
Thats why I say our focus should be to get Pitching as once Davis and Wright start hitting like Wright and Davis all those run scoring problems should be solved.
I would even be open to going and buying one Ace (if there are any but doubtful) to hold us for two or three years until all those kids in the Minors are ready to come up.
By then if the Ace is in decline he at least can mentor the kids and still be at least a 4th or 5th starter!
I also still think making Santana a Closer is not such a bad idea but I doubt highly he goes for that.
With the Mets pitching as dire as it is, do you really want to take the guy who could be the best starter on the team and remove him the rotation already? I can see it if he makes ten or twelve starts and loses it after 75 pitches and doesn’t show any signs of getting stronger. But I think it’s too early to do make that move.
The point is WHO KNOWS how many innings he can go as a starter every 5th day?
Gonna wreck your pen while he builds up his strength as a starter?
OR
Do you throw him in the pen as a closer where at most he has to pitch and inning a day, Builds up his arm strength while giving you the option of resting him whenever needed, and then when he has shown he has whatever stuff he is going to get back after the surgery consider extending him to become a starter again if needed?
It would solve our closer situation for a year, Give Santana time to ease back into playing a whole season and get his stuff back.
Wouldn’t overwork him more than an Inning a day and keep him healthy for an entire year so that if needed can be put bak into the rotation just around the time Harvey, Familia, Mejia and maybe by then Wheeler will be ready and then let Santana compete for the rotation against them!
If he wins a spot so be it. If not he already has a year of Closing under his belt.
The Shoulder will have had another year to heal
He will have had a year to show exactly what he has as far as stuff is concerned and his contract will not be a total waste if he can earn as a closer when who knows if he is still the ACE his salary says he is!
I don’t expect him to go any further than the 5th inning for the first two months of the season.
And if thats all we get I would rather have one or two as a closer until we find some other kid that can handle it!
At least we will have a guy with the right attitude in critical situations closing and maybe that will get us the few wins we didn’t this year late in games.
You can’t start Santana in the bullpen. Can’t pull your potential best starter from the rotation under any circumstances, until he’s proven he can’t do it. If he goes five inning, so what? They’ll be five better innings than whatever 5th starter you scrape from the heap to fill that spot. The Mets have bullpen issues, so fill them with relievers. What do you think it’s going to do with the problems in the rotation to then take Santana out of it?
You take Santana out of the rotation if he proves he can’t do it. You don’t start him in the pen and let him prove he can start.
Potential goes both ways doesn’t it?
Potential to be the best starter has the POTENTIAL to be the worst!
What will the pen do having to cover 4 innings every 5th day?
So now not only are you wasting a pen on every 5th day they are tanked the other 4 days when the POTENTIAL is not pitching!
I don’t know Metsie if trying to switch Santana from starter to closer coming off surgery is best. Experimenting with Santana to see how he handles pitching back to back days is not something I would like to see.
Santana who is due to make about $24M in 2012 would prob be the most expensive closer experiment in MLB history.
I give you credit for thinking outside the box but personally I would not want to see Santana closing in 2012.
You would rather see him try and pitch 5 consecutive innings and run the Pen down every 5th day so they are ineffective for all 5 starters?
I would rather see him try to do what he is best known for rather than experiment with him closing yes.