2
2011
Mets Secretly Shopped Wright? Almost Traded Beltran?
An article by Hojo's Mojo
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets discussed trading Carlos Beltran to the Angels before they acquired Vernon Wells from the Blue jays.
Adam Rubin added that Angels executives concluded Wells was more capable of playing center than Beltran with knee issues at this point in Beltran’s career.
Beltran is owed $18.5 million in the final year of his contract this season and would have been far more cheaper to acquire than Wells and it would have been a one year salary commitment instead of the four years and $86 million dollars they will pay Wells.
The Angels’ concern over Beltran’s knees and his ability to play a full season, was so great, that they opted for a back-breaker of a deal instead. Now there’s something to think about…
In another report that may have slipped under the radar (at least until now), Gary Armida of Full Count Pitch Magazine had a National League source tell him that the Mets were secretly shopping David Wright this Winter.
That sentiment seems to be corroborated around the league. One National League executive saw a different Mets organization this winter. “They are definitely in cost cutting mode. They tried desperately to unload their big money contracts. Even David Wright was quietly shopped,” said the executive.
Armida recalls that it was also Alderson who presided over the Padres when then-owner John Moores went through a public divorce and ultimately had to relinquish power. Alderson had already navigated one organization through a period of uncertainty and financial trouble, and Bud Selig knew that when he pulled for Alderson to take the Mets job.
“Selig is afraid of the Mets turning into the Knicks under Isaiah Thomas. Once he heard about the second scheme, he immediately called Wilpon in and told him in no uncertain terms that this mess has to go away,” said the league source. “Selig evidently made friends in Congress during the steroids thing because he was immediately aware of it and met with Wilpon last September to discuss it.”
I find the Wright rumor a little hard to believe, but who really knows? It’s obvious the Mets are in cost-cutting mode and they brought in an expert executive to help execute that plan.
Recent comments that Sandy Alderson has made regarding the $140 million dollar payroll, have been the source of some concern. If there is one message that has resonated all offseason for the Mets it’s this:
The Mets payroll is too high.
It has been a recurring theme which would suggest that the current $140 million dollar payroll will be much lower in the years to come, and perhaps “significantly lower” as Alderson alluded to yesterday.
I have a feeling that the team that takes the field on Opening Day in 2012 will be far different than the one that takes the field in 2011.
I’m starting to get a feeling that any Mets player earning more than $10 million dollars is at risk to be traded or not re-signed, and that includes one-time Mets cornerstones; David Wright and Jose Reyes. What was once unthinkable, is suddenly at the very least, very thinkable.
I hope I’m dead wrong.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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Unnamed source? Probably another reporter trying their hand at making the Mets look bad. Fail
Yes, like all those other unnamed sources who said the Mets had financial problems last summer. And the other unnamed sources who said Beltran’s knee was still hurting a year ago and could need surgery.
It’s easy to say I told you so a year after the fact. In all honesty, you can’t say they were right last year since they spent 83 million on Bay.
So many try to make our Mets look bad! It just isn’t fair.
I can handle seeing Beltran go, I could maybe even handle seeing Santana dealt, but Wright? I know Alderson has a different method as to how to handle a team but I don’t think the Mets are at the state where they should sell off the players and start over.
There is too much talent to start over.
I would try and trade Bay in a NY minute if $$ is an obstacle in resigning Reyes.
TRADE BAY? WHAT’S HIS CURRENT VALUE? COMING OFF A TERRIBLE SEASON THAT ENDED WITH SEVERE WHIPLASH? BUYING HIGH SELLING LOW ISN’T COST CUTTING IT’S THROAT CUTTING aka SUICIDE!
desite ALL this fervor if it was as bad as they(press) wish us to fear would they not have dealt the second highest salary(Beltran) the moment anyone sniffed around him? even a demand to pay half wouldn’t stop a desperate team as they depict us as. Not making any of these fantasy deals belies the desperate nature they wish to porttray. Of course, any new GM worth his weight in press clippings is going to need to ascertain the value of his finest assets, just because u may request an appraisal on your home doesn’t mean you’re considering moving. Hell, I’ve had 4 done on this house I’m in 13 years now with no thoughts of selling in less than 5 yrs.
If your not throwing your line in you have no chance of catching a fish.
That’s the problem with cherry picking quotes to support a person’s point of view or a story slant.
Sandy was quoted as saying the following at a 2 hour long Q&A session yesterday during a charity event:
‘We’ve never been this high before [with payroll], so given that fact, it probably wouldn’t be surprising that we might settle at a different number in the future,” Alderson said. “But that’s a function of a lot of different things – who we’re able to sign and not sign. But we’re always going to have a very high payroll, whether it’s $150 million next year or $130 million, that’s a function of a lot of different things.’
*****************
That quote seems to refute ‘The Mets payroll is too high’.
Too high in regards to the product they currently have for that money? I would say yes (re: Perez, Castillo, KRods vesting option, etc. etc.)
But too high as in we’re going forward with a much lower payroll – period? I don’t see it that way.
srt – I think you are the one who is cherry picking quotes to fit your argument.
Sandy has been complaining about payroll ever since he got here.
That quote you sight was him scrambling and backpedaling from another comment he made during the Dickey press conference.
Alderson has given fair warning that just because 50MM is coming off the books, not to expect him to reinvest it because that is not his intention.
He has already decided not to negotiate with Reyes and is willing to let him walk. He refused to talk to any free agent who was seeking more than 1.5 million. You have eyes and ears, why dont you use them instead of being a shill?
Scrambling or backpedaling?
People reacted yesterday to Alderson saying that $140 million and $150 million is “significantly” higher than he’d like to be to it meaning the Mets will no longer be one of the highest teams in payroll.
Now if people read most of what Alderson said they would see this.
“I think that is significantly higher than we’d like to be on an annual basis. That’s a product of adding some additional players that we felt the roster needed as well as some existing [contracts]. The plan and the approach that I’ve taken over the last two months has not been affected at all by any other outside factors.”
Alderson refused to put a number on what he would like future Mets payrolls to be.
“At this point is there a specific number? No,” Alderson said. “Whether that means we drop back in future years to some extent, I don’t know. But we will continue to expend money at very high levels and I think be among the highest payrolls in baseball.”
nypost.com/p/sports/mets/mets_non_cents_5cwyZQs4aUSIPdfPo5wOpI#ixzz1Cpe4nlo7
Hearing/seeing how in the media his use of the word significantly was being reacted to he opens last night at the charity with this.
Alderson: “I think there was a little bit of an overreaction to that statement. I don’t know that we’ve been this high before. So given that fact, it wouldn’t be surprising that we might settle at a different number in the future. But that’s a function of a lot of different things, including who we’re able to sign and not sign.
But we’re always going to have a very high payroll, whether it’s $150 next year or $130, that’s a function of a lot of different things. ”
nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2011/02/more_from_mets_general_manager.html
Now clearly he has said that because 50MM is coming off the books, not to expect him to reinvest it entirely. That would just put him right back where he is now so why would he do that?
His decision to not negotiate with Reyes is a decision that many GM’s have done with their free agents in the past as well.
He didn’t sign a free agent seeking more than 1.5M and yet he signed Dickey to what will be pay him $3.25 million in 2011 and $4.25 million in 2012.
So rather than tell srt to open her eyes and ears you should take your own advice.
My point was I provided the entire quote when Alderson answered that question. Not one sentence. I was making a point that from all the stories, tweets, posts I’ve been reading, depending on the twist the author wants to put on it, they’re cherry picking sentences here and there to make it. Haven’t you all noticed that as well? And my comment wasn’t to pick on this particular post, it was an opinion in general on all stories on this across the board. The only articles I’ve read so far that don’t appear to be trying to slant opinion have been the factual articles the Times have been reporting on this.
I’m not predicting what the payroll will be going forward, be it more or less than this year. I certainly hope Alderson doesn’t spend every dime in his pocket just b/c it’s burning a hole there.
Whatever they Mets do going forward regarding the team and it’s payroll, here’s hoping it’s because it’s the smart decision – period.
I haven’t read where Alderson said he’s going to let Reyes walk.
Stop taking these comments personally. Name calling to disagree with an opinion is not necessary.
that’s the way of the quick hit media these days. Pick out a comment, take it out of context, and run amok with silly speculation.
In this case, everyone knows the wilpons are in the middle of a mess due to madoff, and that they need to raise cash (and are willing to sell at least part of the team to get it).
Beyond that though, everything is some combination of supposition, speculation, and flat out panic mongering!
I would guess that chicken little was definitely a Met fan.
I dont think I’d be able to bring myself to buying another ticket to a Mets game if they were to trade David Wright. I dont care how much better the trade would make us or how many prospects we got. I’ll be rooting from home until another homegrown player like Wright comes up from the minors and plays as good as he does. This would be as bad as trading Seaver in his prime.
I’ve been saying everyday that Alderson will trade Wright.
Alderson is a Havard educated Marine who is very good at evaluating talent.
He will resign Reyes for 5 years and trade Wright.
You think Reyes is more valuable than Wright? Really? That’s ridiculous!
What does being a Marine have to do with evaluating talent??????
Short stop is more valuable to the team than 3rd.
They can’t keep both so somebody has to go. I think it will be Wright.
Marine is a teamwork oriented organization.
Alderson was an officer who evaluated solders under him.
I was a Marine officer also. I wouldn’t have taken Wright to battle in my company.
I am not Havard educated though.
Then why have we had like 150 3B before Wright and only 30 SS before Reyes? Well in that case you should listen to me being I’m a former Marine. Give me 50 jarhead.
Where were you stationed btw?
Squidoo
Hoi An which is an hour south of Danang.ROK Marine.
And Alderson said that the Madoff debacle won’t hinder his negotiation with Reyes the other day.
So you know he is trying to resign Reyes.
How many short stop out of 30 who could run and hit like Reyes?
I don’t believe one word you say, and you are a disgrace to all real Marines.
Dude “disgrace”? Rather harsh don’t you think?
You must be new and not following the vial crap this guy spews.
You’re right JerryG15, but Mets2012 must have been a Marine officer through some affirmative action program. Surely with his behavior he needed some help.
MNJ,
It is OK.
He and Des are my toys.
Jerry,
You and Des are stalking me.
Terry said the other day that Reyes is the best player in NL.
I think he knows BB a little more than you two clowns.
Your love of Wright is unnatural in my opinion.
Get a help.
When you make a swarmy, scandalous, perverted post about any Mets player that is unjustified, you’re fair game. Then you tried to say it was funny.
Move on to better stuff and stay off the sick stuff. It really wasn’t funny and just showed your hate.
Funny – I didn’t even mention Wright or Reyes in my post – just what a fraud you are yet AGAIN YOU bring both names up………..and you call me the idiot…….hahahaha
Jerry,
You were making a snide remark when I was saying Wilpons were crooks? Where are you on that now ,idiot?
Since you were a marine, you know all about the consititution and what it represents, since you fought every day for what it stands for and every man is INNOCENT until proven guilty………right?
One more thing – the first time I posted on this thread was to call YOU a fraud about your so called military service. Never made a comment either way about Wilpons.
You keep making things up, you can’t keep your lies and obsessions clear – pity.
I knew you’d be putting your two cents into this story. You know so little but are clairvoyant about Reyes and Wright. Keep plugging your fantasy.
Whatever.
Of course it’s possible. But guys like Wright and Reyes are not making $18 million a year. If they were afraid of losing them to free agency or ridiculously high contracts, then it would be a surprise. But why bring in Alderson to dump anyone with a farily high contract? You can bring in all the George Theodore, Don Bosch–and even Endy Chavez-types you want as starters….but that’s not gonna win many ballgames or put butts in the seats.
Hey leave “The Stork” out of this!
Don’t think DWright or JoRey are going anywhere. Wonder if these unnamed sources with print the same garbage if there were Yankees…
Not a chance.
Yes they would. It was called the 80′s
actively shopping wright seems to be a bit much.
what is entirely possible (and actually logical, and reasonable) is that a new GM would basically troll the entire team past the other GMs, to see where interest was. Doing that, and even listening to offers, is not the same as trying to trade a guy.
Would Sandy trade Wright? Probably, if an offer that was too good to pass up was dropped on him. No idea what (to him) that was. Same for Reyes. Still, that doesn’t mean he wants to.
ALderson probably would be happy to trade bay to free up payroll (and just as important, open a place to try out some of the prospects coming up). K rod, ditto, since I assume he would be willing to try and manage with a cheaper closer!
Stick,
I don’t think the team can afford two.
And Alderson needs to trade one of the 2 to get some value.
Those 2 are the talents what the other teams want.
of course they can afford 2 guys at ~17mill/year each (Wright is about that, and ballparking on reyes).
after Beltran goes, And K rod is either gone or on his last year, the only other players making “real”money are Johan and Bay, and with any luck, they move Bay!
in # terms, with Beltran, Luis and ollie all coming off the books, they can extend Reyes (adding what, 6-7 mill/year?) and do nothing else, and have close to 30million left to spend/save.
I don’t think they are going to spend the savings.
They are trimming the budget.
They’ve been on the sell the club mode for awhile.
Maybe Alderson didn’t know that was the reason he had to trim the budget.
Stick – Your correct about the room in the payroll to carry them but the issue of paying them, trading them or not really is more tied to the state of the entire team than either payroll or the players being worth that money.
All of those players are worth the money we would have to pay them, In Free Agency they will likely get paid MORE than their worth which is not something we can control anyway so doesn’t factor in.
The chances of them being let go or being traded is directly proportional to the amount of rebuilding that needs to be done here.
If the team BADLY needs to be rebuilt (ie Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Bay, Davis, Thole, and Pagan do not hit (any combination) then it is more likely whoever DID hit from that group will be traded away for prospects that we can rebuild with.
If reyes is the only shining light next year then his chances to be traded go through the roof. Same for Wright!
Beltran I believe is gone no matter what. And it makes sense really to trade him. The stigma from the Minaya Era is so venomous (just read the posts here!), what better way to close out the Minaya Era than to trade away the player that started the Minaya Era which is largely Beltran. he was the first puzzle piece brought here by Omar.
The only way I see both Reyes and Wright being in our future (and we will probably keep at least one of them) is if the team doesn’t appear to be that far away from competition. Beltran goes for players but Pagan takes his place in CF. That leaves room to go buy a top OF slugger to take Beltran’s place at cleanup. Someone younger, less likely to break down Or maybe we get a young prospect who can fill that role and become part of the core we have like we hope Davis and Thole might.
Get a decent hitting 2B and we are playing for something if the pitching is there. Then it makes sense to go out and buy some pitching. 40 Mil worth of pitching would get you two frontline Ace capable Starters and add Santana, Pelfrey and Niese to that and you got a pretty good pitching staff, certainly enough to win a WS!
So it depends on how close we are to competing. If we suck then eveyone who has value will be sent packing in favor of youth to rebuild a core with.
If we are in the hunt for the division then we will hold onto most of it and try to trade Beltran for kids, then make a splash in FA with all the money that comes off the books.
We haven’t fallen off the cliff yet.
But this is the year where we either pull ourselves up and regain our grip or we let go and fall to the bottom selling everything of worth on the way!
Naturally I’d rather keep Reyes and give Wright the boot anyday and here’s why:
Reyes had a lot of dynamic – he’s a leadoff hitter with power, an above average SS who just needs to work on his head not his body (gotta keep that healthy too).
To me, as you all know, Wright is a numbers padder, is a gifted athlete but a terrible competitor. I think he has a big fear of failure and it contributes to his reputation of failing when you need him most. That’s just my opinion. He’s simply not a winner I don’t care what his numbers say so I would prefer to move him instead of Reyes. Wright can get you a LOT back. I’d rather get pitching and/or players with some BALLS and make up Wright’s numbers somewhere else.
But after reading today’s Daily News where Sandy Alderson said he would not have taken the Mets GM job if it were not for Bud Selig’s urging, fear not Wright fans because I asked myself this question:
Would I rather trade Wright? OR see Alderson resign. I would prefer to KEEP Wright and give Saber Sandy and all his google bois a nice boot in the you know what and tell them not to let the door hit them in the keester on the way out.
Moneyball – the Art of Winning at an Unfair Game. THE ART OF WINNING???? THE ART OF WINNING? Winning WHAT???
Billy Beane had a little bit of success at the beginning – guess he inherited some good ballplayers but since 2006 hasn’t been above .500.
The thing that sticks out to me is that when Beane took over in 1998 (?) he’s had plenty of time for his beliefs to ‘infect’ the minor league system. So would you say it’s fair that the A’s minor league system was built under the Moneyball philosophy? If so – It appears that their minor league system HAS GOTTEN WORSE OVER THE YEARS – NOT BETTER.
If this Wilpon/Madoff mess can result in anything positive, I dream of it to leading to getting rid of this Moneyball crew because if the A’s are any indication of what we’re in for..it could be a longgggggggggggggg and depressing several years for us Mets fans.
Sorry to divert – i know that’s an “agee thing” but i had to.
why keep harping on the A’s,a small budget team?
If you want to see the actual model they are following, it is the Red Sox.
The Red Sox with A’s budget.
I think they are trying to trim to 100 mils which is like 70 mils if you count tax and living expences.
you have an interesting way of accounting, I give you that.
absolutely no indication they are trying to cut that much of the payroll. Like everything else being discussed, just a personal opinion.
Wilpons’ve been trying to get a partner (sucker) in secret for a year.
They knew what kind of the sh111t they were in.
Believe me. They’ve been in for sale mode for awhile.
They are trimming their budget aggressively.
As you are doing ,I am just speculating too.
What do I know?
Don’t give me the Red Sox argument because that’s such a cop out. That team has been a slugging team in that ballpark as far as I can remember going back to the days of Fred Lynn & Jim Rice.
Having Pedro Martinez in the prime of his career does help a little and having Jonathan Poppelbaum or whatever helps a little too. The Red Sox argument is a complete waste of time.
The A’s minor league system has had many years to evolve under the PhoneyBall – The Art of Losing at a VERY FAIR game system..and the A’s have GOTTEN WORSE.
So if the Red Sox always had slugging teams, why did it take them 86 years to win a World Series? I guess it was a silly coincidence that Theo and his sabermetric philosophies took over right about the time the Red Sox became relevant again. Interesting way to spin it. But hey, it’s what you do.
Pedro Martinez in his prime may have had something to do with that, Papelbon as well.
The Red Sox argument is ALWAYS the argument these saber goons use when all else fails. Give it a rest.
The A’s have GOTTEN WORSE.
Pedro had a lot to do with. So did Schilling. Papelbon, too. Know what Pedro and Papelbon have in common? The Red Sox have/will let them walk/trade them for prospects. The saber way. Gotta love it.
hmmm,
Don’t know about that – doubt highly based on saber’s past history since A’s are getting worse ever year.
As for Red Sox? Maybe the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford may help a bit.
just sayin….
You’re right, Crawford’s gonna be great for them for the first couple of years till his legs give out. He’s the perfect saber top-of-the-orer player. .350+ OBP his last three full years (just missed with .348 OBP the year before that), 82% succes rate stealing bases for his career. He’s 14th in the last two years (since his injury) in wRAA.
A-Gon has even better numbers. Good thing the Sox had all those top prospects to trade away to get him. I wonder where they got all those draft picks?
X,
Give it up, you’re making yourself look bad. Real Bad.
Moneyball is a FLOP. How many more years do you want to give Billy Beane? Maybe he can get fired, go to another team – feed off what’s given to him, revamp the minors and then drive that team into the ground.
Oh wait, he just did that.
since you like to use broad, sweeping generalities, exactly what is Moneyball, to you, that you think is a failure?
any,
Moneyball is the science of studying mediocre/marginal ballplayers. It’s offers a little help when you’re trying to get the best “fillers” possible.
Billy FullOfBeans has had the A’s since 1998 and they are getting worse. If it was everything his disciples claim it is, Oakland should be generating star after star after star from it’s minor league system by now. 13 years later they’re nothing but another yawn. AND NOW WE HAVE MONEYBALL HERE IN NEW YORK? ISN’T THAT GREAT?
Shoot, and here I though Moneyball was merely the title of a book that investigated one GM’s approach given his unique situation. I had no idea it was a universal baseball strategy. Thanks for clearing that up for us.
Martinez was not in his prime in 2004.
And “saber goons” point to the Red Sox because its pretty much the argument winner.
Just because you can’t counter it doesn’t mean it’s not valid.
Oh Jesus you’re right – he did have a good year though.
Never mind that Pedro is a FIERCE competitor who is one of the most intimidating pitchers of all time. Too bad he was only 16-9 that year (sarcasm).
And I entirely forgot that the Red Sox acquired Curt Shilling during the 2004 off season. What type of calculations were needed for that.
Dude, whoever the hell u are go learn about real baseball then maybe you’ll learn the game a bit more.
The only argument that Sox 2004 wins is steroid use. The so called most cltch player, and the so called best right handed hitter of our generation both juiced up and turned the game into a playstation machine. And sadly that is what most of this moneyball stuff has in common
So, you really aren’t that well informed about the steroid issue, are you?
I’d rather keep them both and move Bay’s contract.
Letting Reyes walk will be the beginning of the end.
Trading Wright will be well, just the end.
it could be a longgggggggggggggg and depressing several years for us Mets fans.
As opposed to the non-stop party it’s been for the past 4…why oh WHY did we ever divert from the plan?!?
You know that’s not what I’m talking about. In the time Billy Beane’s A’s have developed under him they have gotten PROGRESSIVELY WORSE.
Many other teams have had sustained success and World Series championships in the meantime.
How is he a genius? Looks to me that this philosophy has been proven to FAIL.
\PhoneyBall – The Art of Losing at a VERY FAIR game system
And now it has just started with the Mets, like a virus entering a new body.
You mean when the big budget teams adopted his strategies and started winning the World Series, like the Red Sox, the A’s have had a harder time?
Huh, imagine that.
Again….the Red Sox is always the final salvation baseball fans with little baseball intelligence (how I describe saber heads) use in their argument as they go down.
Maybe having Pedro Martinez in his prime, at the right time kind of helped, you can say same thing about Papelbon and top that off with STEROID induced ballplayers like Manny Ramirez and Big Papi.
Ohh sureeeeeeeeeeeee….the science of advanced metrics is at what’s play here…more like the science of mixing top-flight pitching and steroid induced stars.
But, they had most of those guys already and they weren’t winning.
And you obviously don’t get the concepts behind sabremetrics. Anybody with a big enough checkbook and capable GM can bring in the big players.
The trick is to finding the next big guy or the right role players. To find out which attributes are worth pursuing and which are more for show. Not only that Jason Giambi was a great hitter, but why he was so you can look for those attributes in someone else. Hint: it wasn’t just the ‘roids.
And, for the record, Moneyball isn’t really the best representative of the new philosophy. I like Michael Lewis’ work, but its no secret he dramatized things for effect. Also, the story of the A’s is told as an epxeriment, not the new paradigm itself. Read one of the later editions of the book that includes the updated forwards and such.
I recommend Baseball Between the Numbers. Its a drier read, but still reasonably entertaining. It gives a lot better insight and doesn’t need to invent villains for itself.
“Naturally I’d rather keep Reyes and give Wright the boot anyday and here’s why:”
Really good drugs?
I don’t see how you can take that big of an issue with Wright not being “clutch” but not have any issues with Reyes in that regard. Reyes was lousy both the Septs that really mattered, and has struggled in the close/late game situations, bases loaded situations and a majority of “clutch” situations his whole career..much moreso than Wright…its something they both need to work on.
But I really don’t see the need to choose one guy over the other, both should be retained as long term Mets IMO.
And regarding Sandy, he essentially said the same thing when he first got hired…this isn’t any kind of big news. It’s not like he’s saying he was completely opposed to working for the Mets or wanted no part of it..it just wasn’t a job that he would have thought to seek out himself, and he didn’t want to leave the job he was currently doing left unfinished.
LGNMY, better still the NYM organization should long ago have learned to stop burning candles at both ends, meaning stop playing thir most relaible productive studs into the ground as if they were automatons/androids & not flesh & bone in as much I presume u are referring primarily to the ’07 collapse & so called ’08 collapse BTW in ’07 both Reyes & Weright hung in there to play 160 games apiece followed similarly in ’08 with 159 from Reyes & another 160 from Wright. All the while we were fetted to platitudes each ST promising to rest both properly, somehow despite their pre-prime ages & considering the overall output level,responsibility & pressures 2, possibly 3 days of additional rest certainly isn’t obscene or untoward esp when your premere SS, built like a thouroughbred was being run into SB#’s typically reserved for bulkier muscled outfielders than skilled positioned thoroughbreds. Somehow ALL that bumping,bruising toll of sliding headfirst is discounted instead of considered the cumulative detremental abuse that it actually is. Alongside Reyes @ 2B(Castillo) is a Prime example of a skilled middle-infielder beaten & abused by repetitive +sb seasons. In some respects they constitute a warning depiction of BEFORE & AFTER. and it should be especially noted Castillo was never as adept @ SBs as Jose while never compiling 159+ games played sequences. in fact in non-major injury seasons of the 3 Premere SS most often compared the reliability of each favors Reyes:
PLAYER NON-INJURY YRS AVG# GAMES PLAYED
RAMIREZ 5 151.6
ROLLINS 8 155.6
REYES 4 158.3
burning candles on both ends leads to getting burned as thes Mets were in both ’07 & ’08. exhaustion is a factor for even the most gifted athlete in their youth.
I say trade them both for all the talented young pitching you can.
Where do u propose to get the prerequisite runs scored required by tat pitching?
I disagree completely. Pitchers are much riskier than hitters. I wouldn’t trade an accomplished offensive player at a premium position just for a generic “talented young pitcher”.
Besides, the way Citi is built it seems like virtually anyone (save for Ollie P.) can be a good pitcher there. Of course you need to win games on the road too, so you want to have some good pitchers, but if the Mets insist on keeping the dimensions the way they are, I think pitching becomes less important since you don’t need to be a legit stud pitcher to pitch well in Citi.
While Citi Field does eat some home runs, it still has crazy power alleys. Also, if you are walking the world and give up a lot of contact, you’re still going to give up runs.
But, other wise I agree with you. the return on investment with pitchers is far less than position players.
I’m sure every big contract name on our roster got mentioned during the off season to other GMs. How else is Alderson supposed to find out what the market rate for those players is? How else is he supposed to know who can get him the most, who can get him the least and who might be better off resigning than trading?
Some people around here are like Pavlovs Dog you hear the TRADE rumor bell ring and immediatly think we are going to rebuild the pirates!
Doesn’t matter to me what number Alderson thinks the payroll should top out at, and why do I even care?
You know what is important here?
Whatever he decides to spend had better be enough to win games and compete or he will be as unemployed as Omar is right now!
If he can win a world series for the lowly sum of a dollar I don’t really care how much he spent.
Why the rest of you care how much we spend is quite beyond me!
It may be beyond you but I’ll tell you exactly why we care. Because every time we buy a ticket, souvenir, program, apparel, or concession. It’s a bit of our money that the Wilpons should be using to improve the product on the field. And if you live in New York City, its means some of your tax dollars went to building the place where the Mets play, at almost no cost to the Wilpons, so they should be using that money to improve the product. A fan (short for fanatic) makes a lot of unreasonable demands. However to expect is financial support to be reciprocated is not one of them. Especially when the model for how to run a franchise sits about 25 miles northwest.
The Mets are going to have the highest payroll in their history this year, and prove to us again, for the umpteenth time, that money alone cannot buy rings.
How many games did you go to last year?
How much did you spend?
Divide that by 140 Million and tell me how much YOU share the burden and how much right you have to complain about the budget!
yes you support the team and I applaud you for that. But you do not spend enough to insist the payroll go up another 20-50 million.
If you think so, Go buy a share of Microsoft and then take that stock certificate over to MS Headquarters and demand to see Bill Gates…
See how far that share gets you!
I have no doubt that teams asked about Reyes, Wright, and Beltran.
Other than that…I take this as pure unadulturated B.S.
There are just a lot of Met haters out there and they are reveling in the
downturn the team has taken since 2006 thanks to the overrated, inept,
and unqualified Omar Miniya and that street thug Tony Bernazard.
Honestly, in the number one market in the world and with the cost of Citi Field, the Wilpons may have to sell their controlling share if fans don’t come to the ballpark because the team has been stripped of all its good players.
It may be more fun to see what happens off the field then on the field this season.
I know i will be very focused on the going ons down in AA this year.
OK, simple question for the saber is the devil crowd.
what, exactly, is the “real baseball model” a GM should follow to build a winning team, and a successful (sustained competitiveness) franchise, without looking at saber stuff (and if you have time, where do you draw the line between real stats and saver voodoo?)?
In other words how it’s been done all throughout baseball history?
I don’t know what the exact model is otherwise i wouldn’t be here talking to you and all GMs would subscribe to it. I DO KNOW that Billy Beane’s model of settling for mediocrity is the one that I would NOT follow. His teams are getting worse.
I would probably pick Bob Howsam’s brain (GM for Big Red Machine) for starters..you could go on and on.
so basically you have no clue what you are talking about?
That I think we pretty much had nailed down already!
Oh sure, nice attempt at a cheap shot,
That’s a convenient answer but the truth is I’m not about to go into my ENTIRE beliefs on what to do if i was GM and what I would look for.
I can, but I won’t. I’ve been on this board for years and probably a lot of people here could guess what I would do. I have laid out my plan for what I would’ve done for the Mets this year. It’s fun playing GM. Just not now.
I don’t know who the hell you are either and i’m not about explain anything to you. i already have here many times in the past – go searching through the archives. Go back under your rock.
yes, we can guess what you would do. run the team directly in the ground.
He would tell you, get Bench, Perez, Morgan, Conception, Rose, Foster, Griffey and Geronimo. Get some pitchers, a bench and let ‘em play.
You mean the Big Red Machine that was anchored by players like Joe Morgan who was passed over by most of the other teams because he didn’t fit the traditional mold of a second baseman but an innovative front office exec brought him into the fold in Cincinati seeing the potential? You do realize that those Reds teams won because not onyl were they loaded with great players, but ebcause they went against a lot of traditonal thinking, right?
Yeah,
Joe Morgan – a real innovative SCOUT found him using out of the box thinking…sure. So out of the box thinking didn’t exist in the 1920s either?
I think there were 24 other players/pitchers for those teams too…go research another single example that best suits your non-existant argument.
I think I’ll go up and down the roster of the 1957 Milwaukee Braves and pick a guy and spin one example that can suit any argument. Yawn.
Ya, I know there were 24 other guys. And some of those guys did a hell of a lot better than what (at the time)traditional baseball thought they would do.
Innovative thinking in baseball has been around a long time. One of the best excamples is Branch Rickey’s move in 1947. Remember that one? He promoted some second baseman people just assumed couldn’t play baseball on the professional level because he wasn’t what players traditionally looked like.
Now, breaking the color barrier is light years beyond merely finding a new system of talent evaluation.
Babe Ruth is another example. He was the first great power hitter. Prior to him, the home run total really wasn’t prusued in talent evaluation.
Another thing – if this saber stuff has any kid believing he knows the game and I see soooo many people bowing to Mecca for it’s virtues….if it’s THAT easy then it MUST not be good.
I would think success wouldn’t be so easy? But what do I know sitting here arguing with an army of sabernerds sitting in their mother’s basement claiming they NOW know the game.
Give me a break.
Theo Epstein will be disappointed that you think he doesn’t know the game cause he never played the game and is a proponent of sabermetrics.
Oh wait but how can that be? I mean a man that never played the game and uses Saberterics won a W.S.?
“Epstein’s Red Sox have developed a series of metrics that further adjust those statistics by factoring in such things as a player’s age, home-ballpark configuration, minor league region and level, and so on. It’s not groundbreaking thinking, but for a franchise characterized of late mostly by its willingness to just throw piles of cash at underperforming free agents—running up a $108 million payroll, the second highest in baseball—it’s positively radical. “Baseball operations is in a transition here,” says Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino, who last month hired statistical svengali Bill James as a senior adviser. “We will never desert the traditional approaches, but we will mix them into an amalgam that has more modern, quantitative, sabermetric approaches. Undeniably part of the appeal of Theo was to move in that direction.”
sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1027837/index.htm#ixzz1CqePkhU4
Sounds like Lucchino is describing what the Mets are trying to do. I can only hope we could be as lucky.
sabernerds sitting in their mother’s basement
Bill Simmons just called. He wants his joke from 2001 back.
Are you kidding? He even uses Bill Plaschke’s “Google Boy” line.
Because referring to someone as one of the most innovative and progressive companies of the last 50 years, is now worth billions, and one of the most recognizable brands in the world is somehow an insult.
And those who are anti-stats think they “know” the game oh so well and can build a team without relying on stats b/c they played baseball in highschool or are coaching a bunch of little leaguers.
Personally…I like the Minnisota Twins organization model of sustained competitiveness. They are in the playoffs year in and year out and at the least have a chance to win a world series.
I like to see a GM use his brains and strategize to win a world series unlike that weasel Brian Cashman fellow who does NOTHING but bludgeon everyone with Yankee money.
as with the red sox, rays, the big red machine, etc. running a team is all about smart talent evaluation, including scouting and statistical analysis, combined with an obsession about collecting and developing premium prospects, while making value determinations about older players, and cutting them loose rather than overpaying them.
having a large payroll is the cherry on top, allowing you to also jump on the occasional preemo talent that hits the FA market. it also allows you to retain your own stars, IF you want to.
having the strong farm is the key to the whole process, since it keeps the talent flowing onto the team, and (as with A Gon) gives you the excess talent to trade for someone elses guy that they can’t afford.
sabermetrics is simply advanced statistical analysis to try and determine what individual player stats mean to the bottom line (in this case, wins). But no team uses them in a vacuum, and they all scout players too (and consider “grit” factors such as type of player). Hell, the red sox dumped manny, a saber stat darling, and couldn’t get rid of him fast enough.
the essence of what the A’s were doing in the early days (now commonly just called moneyball after the book) was trying to figure out what attributes of a player were undervalued (that is, they lead to more wins for less money). Saber tools happened to be something that helped with this. But all that did was identify guys to consider, it was still up to the team to evaluate players as a package.
For any team, it is hard to see how making it a goal to get players that would earn their money (give more “bang for the buck”) better is a bad thing. And that does not mean signing a lunatic like dukes because he had a slightly higher WAR.
and while it is obvious to any GM that Pujols, A Gon, etc. are studs that you would love to have on your team, the bulk of the roster (and the guys that will make the difference between being close and hoisting a trophy_ is made up of low/medium priced “support” guys. And the better job you do with picking up them, the better the team will be, especially when working under a budget.
OBP (some people obsess over that) is not moneyball. It was something identified at the time as important (and it is) but more importantly, undervalued. Now, it isn’t. So, a smart GM has to figure out what is (speed? A power FB? defense?)
IMO, Alderson is, and should, be cognizant of all this, and will use everything available to find the best players, that he can afford. This year it was budget guys. Next year, it could be much more expensive players.
so to conclude, MB is getting the most wins for your money. A team with more money should get more wins. MB is not, as some here say, about finding mediocrity, and sabermetrics are not the devil.
+1
Just for the record I would like to give my definition of Monkey ball. Monkey ball is the art of addressing last years miscalculations, mistakes and oversights by bludgening a type A free agent or two with the bosses checkbook while failing to see how the soon to be in decline or on the DL newly minted multi millionaire will fit into the big picture.
Surrounding two young (and inherited) cost controlled All Stars with as many aging dinosaurs on their last legs (and contract) as possible and save money by filling the bench will as many other teams rejects as possible. add in a couple not ready for prime time grade A- B+ prospects in order to get their arb clock started. Use 1 roster spot for one of your 36 million dollar mistakes that you failed to acquire a competent replacement for and use another roster spot for a designated hitter you acquired in place of two of the top 40 amateurs in the entire country.
Make sure that TWO of your starting pitchers have a higher OB% than 14 of your handpicked hitters including 4 of your opening day starting 8 and do all this in year 6 of your reign as GM.
Monkey ball is quite simply the art of paying the absolute most possible per win. If you are also able to give away high draft choices that other teams then use to fill the exact needs that you are overpaying for while most of your high draft choices bust and your IFA’s bottom out and your friend undermines your manager and challenges 20 year olds to hit their boss and you trade for a guy everyone knows was hurt and you give 100 million dollars to closers over a 7 year period have achieved full primate status.
i’m pretty sure the yankees paid more per win than the mets did.
Sadly they did not Francis.
using cot’s figures, the yanks spent 2.26 MM per win and the mets spent 1.68 in 2010.
boston spent 2.12 MM per win
i think the mets were 4th, behind NY, BOS, and CHC. LAA were a close 5th.
You pretty much need to exclude the Yankees from any calculation like this.
i guess so, but you can do the same comparison with boston and it still works.
ANY, Most NYY examples really don’t apply to us or anyone else but this is one that fits. Look how close Boston is to them. Philly will be close this year too.
What’s interesting to me is Teams like Atlanta, STL, that are usually in it and with far lower payrolls. They win more and pay less. Sounds like a reasonable competitor would want to find out why.
they do have hall of fame managers in common …
But do the teams win because they are Hall of Fame managers, or are they Hall of Fame managers because the teams win?
LaRussa has 2 WS rings and look at who he had on those teams.
Certain people here wouldn’t call Bobby Cox a success because he only won 1 WS with the Braves.
Great play from inexpensive young talent combined with a couple of well thought out trades and a select few free agents gives you the best chance to win.
Relying on expensive free agents, and then when you run out of money other teams rejects, only leads to sub .500 records
Agee,
“monkey ball” led us to our 1st division title since 1988, and during 06-08 we had the most wins in the national league.
The injuries in 09 is the reason why we did bad that year. Before Reyes and Delgado were hurt we were in 1st place, and one month later, before beltran got hurt we were 1.5 games behind first. After that we fell apart. So there is no way anybody can say it wasn’t because of injuries. And it wasn’t like Beltran and Reyes were old either, Reyes was 26, and Beltran was 32. I’ll give that Delgado was an injury risk, but Reyes and Beltran…no way.
Sure Omar made a lot of bad moves, some were REALLY bad, but those were good teams we had. and now we have a lot of good, young, promising players like, Davis, Pelfrey, Niese, Thole, Parnell, gee, and Mejia because of “monkey ball”
No, Omar inheritted the two best players. Moneky Ball required that Omar trade off all those other young talents for Moises Alou.
What? “Trade off all those young talents for moises alou?” what does that mean? What “young talents” did we “trade” for alou?
wasn’t he an free agent signing?
Just an example. If Omar had the chance, half of our young guns (which aren’t that highly regarded) would have been traded off for someone like Joe Blanton. Or worse, trade a decent relief pitcher for a center fielder so bad, the team he left agreed to pick up over $20 million of his salary. And this was Beltran’s replacement.
Also, when you sign a type A free agent, the team he left gets your next first round draft pick as well as an extra pick. So, you kind of are trading away a prospect.
We consitently have one of the highest payrolls in baseball with one playoff run to show for it. We had high priced has beens or wash outs manning important positions, like left field, second base and starting pitcher.
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHH,
so if Omar would have had the chance he would have traded half our “young guns” for joe blanton or worse. Yeah that’s what he was going to do this offseason – That was his plan.
I’d like to talk about things that you know, can ACTUALLY HAPPEN. Instead of these crazy hypotheticals.
Dude, how can you bash him for a move he didn’t even make? now THAT’S weak.
So, the Gary Matthews Jr trade didn’t happen?
Yes, Omar was going to trade for Joe Blanton…. You know it’s real easy to make any GM look bad if you just make things up. Lets see. “Sandy Alderson sucks, he would trade half of our farm for A.J Burnett if he had the chance.”
It will never happen, but who cares about that? It’s much easier to just make things up, right?
As for GMJ, you’re right it turned out to be a bad move, but lets get a few thing straight here. GMJ was here to bakcup Pagan, GMJ wasn’t Beltran’s replacement, Pagan was. Big difference there. And like it really would have helped if we had kept Brian Stokes and his 8.10 ERA.
Vinny B.
In 2006 the entire NL sucked except us. No one else even won 90 games. St. Louis won the Central with 83 wins. SD won the West with 88 wins and LA the WC with the same. Atlanta has had only 2 losing seasons in the last 16 years. 2006 and 2008. I’d say that had as much to do with us winning the division in 2006 and being in the WC race 2007 and 2008. But you can’t wash it all away with the injury excuse. Omar did not back up our starters effectively either here or in AAA. That cannot be disputed. Ever take a look at some of the names that started games for us in 2006, 2007 and 2008? How do the names Jorge Sosa (14) Brandon Knight (2) Brian Lawrence (6) Alay Solar (8) Dave Williams (6) Jose Lima (4) Chan Ho Park (1) Claudio Vargas (4) and Geromi Gonzalez (3) sound.
Considering we lost in 2007 by 1 game and 2008 by 2 I would say having had competent backups considering the age and injury history of Pedro, El-Duque Glavine and Trachel that would have been the difference between winning the 2007 and 2008 NL East or going home. And that’s before the injury ravaged 2009.
I’m not minimizing what Omar did because sports are a result oriented business and he got Sanchez, Hernandez, Oliver and Bradford and Wagner for the pen. Backed Kaz up with Valentin, got El-Duque Maine and Perez and it all worked out but he kept counting on those guys despite age, injuries and bad play and got rid of the guys who did play well and even though he got 2 picks from both Bradford and Hernandez he blew the draft and gave away a pick on top of it for Alou.
I’ll give you Beltran and Reyes and I’ll even give you Perez. No one could see him being totally useless at any kind of money.
Pelfrey was a high #1 (9) not a big surprise. Niese, a terrific 7th round pick. Ike not a huge surprise but a good pick. Thole will always need a platoon partner, Parnell a solid pick especially in the 9th. Gee a great pick in the 21st and Mejia he cost a year with by dicking around with him last year.
I wish he had not fired the guy who drafted Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell and Thole a few months after because the following years draft was one of the worst of all time. Check out picks 1-7 2007 draft someday. We got 4 extra picks because of losing Bradford and Hernandez and not only did our bullpen cost us in 2007 but we blew the whole draft too. Why? Because he selected college RELIEF pitchers in the high early rounds for immediate and cheap help up here ASAP instead of drafting players we could be turning RF 2B and starting pitcher over to right now.
Monkey Ball has cost us the primes of the best two position players we have ever produced and put this franchise into yet another death spiral by thinking you can solve all your needs by just waiting around until free agency and see who you give an outrageous contract too in order to play like s**t.
T, u never fail to impress me with the depth of your facts regarding the draft results; however, I’d be much more inclined to support your claims if u took the obvious slot restriction effect into account. perhaps, as is likely those college relievers were inked because they were perceived as “easy signings within guidelines”
T, I’ve also been subjected to NYM org bashing by that Rays’ scout I’ve mentioned in the past, whereas he has been critical of the quality of scout the Mets send to the top prospects’ workouts/games. That, in itself, would seem damnable; however in light of the “Guidelines are Biblical” edict from Ownership, it would seem prudent, why waste the time,skills & energies of your topscouts on potentisal picks u know u have no shot at securing due to bonus demands likely to be made, rather it would seem much more justified to asign these TOPGUN SCOUTS to beating the hinterlands for gems in the late rounds.
Again, T, it’s ludicrous to assume the same prospect would sign for guideline money from us when they may have rec’d more e;lsewhere, so to complete your analysis u should also supply an indepth analysis supplying slot info they may or may not have inked for elsewhere. NB Strausberg was inked <Slot!
When I retorted the Rays' scout's disparagements with the Mets' Slot dictate, his ONLY response was "T H A T'S THEIR PROBLEM!"
T, it's nearly impossible to contemplate the absolute ruinous effect the Slot Guidelines have wrought upon our Mets & Omar's initial plans. Sandy Alderson obviously is aware as one of his initial considerations for overall improvement was revealed when he stated"perhaps we need to review/revisit our adhereance to the Slot Guidelines" LET US PRAY!
The Mets were in first place alone for all of 10 days in 2009. They played pretty badly for a good chunk of the time when everyone was healthy too. They were 9-12 in April. They just had a nice win streak in early May (winning 7 in a row) to temporarily get them in first place…but one good week was all they really had even when everyone was healthy.
And then at the end of May after Reyes and Delgado had gotten hurt they had another good stretch where they won 7 of 8…but that didn’t last either.
Those two weeks or so were pretty much the extent of the good baseball played by the Mets in 2009. Yes obviously the injuries were the reason they ended up being absolutely awful that year, but its not like they ever played consistently good baseball that year…they looked bad at times when everyone was healthy.
Greg,
I like the Twins organization as well. The best part about them is they ignore sabermetrics…..Maybe someone should write book about them?
Actually, they do in fact use advanced statistics to aid in scouting and talent evaluation. Just because they don’t dedicate the same amount of resources other teams do and an assistant GM said somethign people seem to be taking out of context, doesn’t mean the team doesn’t take them into account.
The only thing of note is that the Twins are one of few teams that don’t yet have a full sized department dedicated to it. They apparently outsource it. And some things Antony says (defense is still hard to quantify, you should still do traditional scouting) are also repeated by proponents of sabermetrics.
Nobody is taking what he said out of context. He didn’t know what FIP and BABIP was…so how could they use them if they don’t even know what it is?
If they used adavnced stats you think he would know what those stats were, right?
Is talent evaluation in his list of responsibilities? If not, then no, he doesn’t need to understand the nitty gritty of it. His job is more likely to hire people who do understand it.
He has admitted to outsourcing their statistical analysis in the past and using it along with their traditional scouting.
He even claimed last year that they “hired a guy”. Granted, not a ringing endorsement, but I’ll take a grudging one.
The Twins just don’t dedicate as many resources as other teams. We’ll see how long that persists.
He was also aksed if we would rather have a guy with high RBI totals or a guy with a high slug% and he said he’d take the guy with the higer RBI total.
Here’s what he said about that:
“Because you win with runs. And I want that guy because you are probably going to have a better correlation that is going to have a better batting average with runners in scoring position. He’s the guy that’s going to step-up, the guy you want at the plate. There have been so many guys – and I don’t want to name names and insult anybody – guys with 24 home runs and 60 RBI”
And here’s what Ron Gardenhire said about saber:
“Sabermetrics has picked us to finish like fourth or fifth three years in a row. So you figure their numbers out, numbers are good bases to go off things and try to figure things out, but for every number you throw out there that’s not supposed to work, the human element’s always coming. Bad pitch, guy gets a hit. But he’s not supposed to, still rips a pitch in the gap. Those are all great things and, over the course of time probably prove out pretty good. But I like the human element and I like the heart way better than I like their numbers. And that’s what I’ll always stay with.”
Yeah, the Twins are REALLY into saber…come on.
It just goes to show they don’t understand it. I never said they were really into. I just refuted your claim they never use it. Please don’t put words itno my mouth to defend your position. If it’s weak, just accept that it is weak.
Of crouse, Gardy is also proving the concept that managers aren’t all that important during the game.
And I’d like to know who was on a good team that hit 24 home runs but only had 60 RBIs. Maybe we should look at who was hitting in front of him rather than call out the hitter himself.
You said: “Actually, they do in fact use advanced statistics to aid in scouting and talent evaluation”
Okay, so here you say they are using it.
“It just goes to show they don’t understand it.”
Now you’re saying they don’t understand it. So what it sounds like you are saying they use it, but don’t understand it? So they don’t understand it but use it anyway? yeah okay….now I’m confused. you’re not making any sense.
Oh and yeah managers aren’t important during the game, yeah ok…whatever.
Yes, the Twins organization uses advanced statistics. No Gardy and Antony don’t seem to really get the concept to them.
It’s not that I don’t make sense. They don’t.
Like the silly idea that slugging percentage doesn’t tell you anything about the player, but RBIs are a great metric (so they do use statistics).
And that is the funniest part about the whole thing. Its not that you and them don’t like statistics. You use them all the time. Pitching saves, wins, RBIs batting average etc . You just are refuse to using the new statistics.
So, you are forced to invent strawmen to make your argument look better.
When Antony was asked what FIP stand for here is his reply:
“I just saw this one the other day…might have been in a Reusse column. Is it “First-Strike in Inning Pitched?”
All the saber guys on here say how FIP is the most important pitching stat… so how could someone who uses advanced statistics not even know what the most important pitching stat is?
Are you just saying they use adavnced statistics because they “hired a guy?” Well Omar had a saber guy too, so do you think he used adavanced statistics? He obviously didn’t..because then we wouldn’t have gotten Francoeur and Barajas.and he wouldn’t have been interested in signing Bengie Molina. Just beacuse the Twins “hired a guy” doesn’t mean they will change their beliefs on how to evalulate players.
Well anyway, back to my main point, is that the Twins don’t use saber and are a succesful franchise. Somebody should write a book about them.
I found this just a second ago.
Here’s what Terry Ryan said when he was asked if he would consider his style a sabermetric style.
Terry Ryan: “No, I am a little bit of a combination of a lot of things. I will look at raw statistics, sabermetrics, scouting reports, history, injury, league information, and even individual advice from someone who may not even work for us. Makeup and character is a big part of our organization, maybe more than some others. I am not one thing and the Twins organization is not one thing. We take a lot of things into serious consideration when it comes to acquisition, but character is up there pretty high.”
So there you have it. The Twins are more about character than about stats. he’s 100% right. Of course you look at everything like stats, but makeup and character are most important.
“what, exactly, is the “real baseball model” a GM should follow to build a winning team,”
Scouting, Scouting, and BETTER Scouting!
Numbers (any numbers, Sabers, Traditional, any type) are SECONDARY AT BEST!
What the Saber guys need to understand is that the numbers you use are nothing more than Fast Food Math!
They are made, compiled and calculated using the same Traditional stats many Saber guys spit on! Tell someone the traditional stats and they can tell you what the sabermetrics are but give someone a sabermetric and there is no way in hell to determine what the breakdown of stats that caused it were!
Sabermetrics is nothing more than DATA COMPRESSION!
This is MY main problem with it being used as the FIRST stats anyone uses to weed out players from selection. Making decisions based on thrown away data is not a smart thing!
Sabers are fine if your looking at them after you have already examined the traditional, I have no problem mixing and matching to see different things. When used in a DEEP Statistical analysis the more stats you look at the better! Which leads me to the one thing I have argued for months here….
Looking at a guy’s OBP, SLG, WAR, WHIP and OPS+ is not what you could call a very DEEP analysis!
First you scout and find players who have the physical, Then talk to them to see if they have the mental too! Then you look at the stats and find every player that plays his position and look at their numbers. If someone has some better numbers then you go and scout him too if you haven’t already.
And when you have all the candidates you think you want you go down every statistical thing you can find. PA:RS ratio, WHIP, OPS+, AB, BA, 2B, 3B, HR, S, CS, ALL OF THEM!!!
Thats how you find the best team. If you did that then you would have plenty of money to buy what you wanted when you wanted because you did more than look at a guy’s OBP!
getting your star pitcher off the hook when he’s caught with a bag of weed on the dashboard of his car is a start.
fast food math? I thought it was text messaging.
anyway, you missed the part about scouting being key, and numbers a tool.
not sure what you mean by if you have the numbers you can tell the saber, since saber stuff is just calculated based on the standard (BB card stats). And WHIP or OBP are no more saber than BA is.
and the point of saber deep analysis (like WAR) is to compare different types of players. take Werth and Crawford this past off season. Both are good. Both had strong years. They got large contracts.
But, they are different. so with standard stats, tell me which one, put into the same situation (as in, a team looking to sign them) is “better”, or will help a team to more wins?
“not sure what you mean by if you have the numbers you can tell the saber, since saber stuff is just calculated based on the standard (BB card stats).”
OK you have a guy with a 343 OBP.
How many hits did he have? In How many At bats or PA? How many runs did he drive in? How many runs did he score?
Can you tell all of that from OBP and WAR?
NO!
As for using them to compare different players, Well if they are different they should not be selected by a number they should be selected by the best fit for the team needs!
One guy may have a better WAR but he is a leadoff hitter! You need a Base Clearing slugger.
Does WAR tell you which type of player you have? NO! Then it is pretty useless unless used to compare players that are bsically the SAME and fit the SAME need!
and no WAR by itself is not a DEEP statistical analysis!
OK, this is getting annoying. No one has ever said one stat tells you all you need to know. OBP was simply an example of a stat that was apparently under valued. It is best described as a player’s ability to not make an out, which is fairly important. Everyone, agrees however, that the best thign a hitter can do is hit a home run.
OBP is not the be all and end all of player evaluation, especially with ,you know, PITCHERS!
You do need a complete list of stats to figure out a players total contribution. If a guy has a below average OBP, but a very high slugging percentage, that means he’s got lots of power. That means he is valuable (provided the OBP isn’t too low).
And most saberticians agree that WAR is not perfect (it tends to undervalue defense), but its pretty good at figuring out a player’s over all value. It takes into account OBP, power, some defense, and position among other things. Look at the standard MVP voting over the years and compare that to the guys that have finsihed in the top 5 of WAR. You tend to see the same guys on both lists.
Really Donal? SLG tells you about Power? Hmmm Lets see.
What is the SLG of the following players?
And who is the power hitter based on the SLG?
Player A – 10 AB 4S 2D 0T 0HR
Player B – 5 AB 0S 0D 0T 1HR
SLG does not tell you about power it tells you how many bases he got. If he has a BAD OBP then you might be able to say well the one hit he got was a HR. But that doesn’t mean he has power!
Is player B a power hitter or just some fluke who got a fat pitch and drove it home?
The bottom line I am trying to get accross here is the Stats will GLADLY LIE to you if you let them or misuse them to come to a conclusion you want instead of letting them tell the story they were meant to tell!
If I see a guy has 20 HRs then I don’t need the SLG or need to supplement the SLG with some other numbers to know if the guy has power!
It goes back to what I said regarding OBP vs BA.
If I know the BA of the player then I KNOW his OBP is higher than that. So what do I need OBP for?
If the guy has 20 HRs then I don’t need to look at the SLG, Why do I need that stat? Especially when it will tell me a guy with 10 ABs and no HRs is AS GOOD a power hitter as someone who has 5 ABs and one!
SLG goes up wth OBP. OBP goes up with BA. sure there are other things that can happen to raise both but the stat itself can’t tell you what they are! So by using them you LOST DATA that would have told you how REAL the number is and under what circumstances they were created!
Using stats is very much like conducting a murder investigation. You have to take what they say with a grain of salt until you verify the story they tell you.
Using SLG for a POSITIVE power metric only works when other metrics are BAD! If a guy has High OBP and High SLG you can not say if the extra bases he is getting are because he has a lot of singles or because he hits lots of HRs.
It requires you to go look at the component (Traditional) stats that made it up to decipher the story and if you have to do that, My argument is then why bother looking at the 3rd hand knowledge if your forced to go look at the first hand information that created it anyway?
In the example I cited there were two players you could choose from. Both had the same SLG. If thats all you knew you would or could select the wrong player because you got less information than if you just looked at the traditionals and started from there.
If you do that then SLG could be used AFTER the fact such as finding two players with 20 HRs and then looking to see who had the higher SLG between the two. That is a SECOND LEVEL analysis and it is these secondary terciary and beyond that constitute a DEEP statistical analysis.
Not just mashing a bunch of numbers together hoping to come to a single number that you can simply take the higher of and think you got the answer right!
My problem with many Saber guys (Not all mind you) is they don’t want to look at the traditionals the Sabers are made of and by doing that they ignore the KEY information that tells you how true the saber number actually is!
One correction Metsie, I’ve read where you’ve stated a few times that a players OB% cannot be lower than his BA. Although rare it does happen from time to time, in fact we had a player who at one point last year had a higher OB than BA.
To accomplish this “feat” you would have to be a low OB% guy who either sac bunts or sac flies more than he walks or gets HBP.
Figure it out. 4 PA, 2 hits, 1 sac fly = BA .667, OB% .500.
Rod Barajas was our guy who at point point last year had a higher BA than OBP. Benjie is another who is always a threat to accomplish this.
“SLG does not tell you about power it tells you how many bases he got.”
No, it tells you how many bases he gets per hit. Not the most accurate, but pretty good.
“Is player B a power hitter or just some fluke who got a fat pitch and drove it home?”
Considering how you are using 5 ABs and 10 ABs in your example, I’d say it is impossible to accurately say one way or another.
“The bottom line I am trying to get accross here is the Stats will GLADLY LIE to you if you let them or misuse them to come to a conclusion you want instead of letting them tell the story they were meant to tell!”
Numbers don’t lie. People do. I agree people will try and use incomplete numbers or irrelevent numbers to support their point. you’re doing it here.
“If I see a guy has 20 HRs then I don’t need the SLG or need to supplement the SLG with some other numbers to know if the guy has power!”
Yes, you do. You have to consider park factors, who he has faced, how many ABs he had etc etc.
“It goes back to what I said regarding OBP vs BA.
If I know the BA of the player then I KNOW his OBP is higher than that. So what do I need OBP for?”
What do you need AB for? OBP = how often he does not make an out. AB = how often he reaches safely minus certain outcomes (walk, sac etc etc)
“If the guy has 20 HRs then I don’t need to look at the SLG, Why do I need that stat? Especially when it will tell me a guy with 10 ABs and no HRs is AS GOOD a power hitter as someone who has 5 ABs and one!”
Do I really need to explain the concept of sample size?
“SLG goes up wth OBP. OBP goes up with BA.”
Not really
” sure there are other things that can happen to raise both but the stat itself can’t tell you what they are!”
Uh, ya, I said that
” So by using them you LOST DATA that would have told you how REAL the number is and under what circumstances they were created!”
Ya, I said that. You’re arguing against points I never made.
“Using SLG for a POSITIVE power metric only works when other metrics are BAD! If a guy has High OBP and High SLG you can not say if the extra bases he is getting are because he has a lot of singles or because he hits lots of HRs. ”
Ummm, you’re confusing SLG with BA. SLG = Hits/total bases. It can be a little deceptive when you account for base stealers and such, but its an improvement over BA. All BA does is tell you how many hits he got in his ABs. BA is what does not differentiate between the types of hits.
“It requires you to go look at the component (Traditional) stats that made it up to decipher the story and if you have to do that, My argument is then why bother looking at the 3rd hand knowledge if your forced to go look at the first hand information that created it anyway?”
Your argument is based on false premises and incorrect definitions. You’re trying to make me defend things I ,nor anyone really, ever said.
“My problem with many Saber guys (Not all mind you) is they don’t want to look at the traditionals the Sabers are made of and by doing that they ignore the KEY information that tells you how true the saber number actually is!”
No, your problem is you don’t seem understand what is actually being discussed.
“No, it tells you how many bases he gets per hit. Not the most accurate, but pretty good.”
So make that statement jive with this one…
” but a very high slugging percentage, that means he’s got lots of power.”
Both players were just as high, did SLG tell you who the slugger was? NO!
“Ummm, you’re confusing SLG with BA. SLG = Hits/total bases. It can be a little deceptive when you account for base stealers and such, but its an improvement over BA. All BA does is tell you how many hits he got in his ABs. BA is what does not differentiate between the types of hits.”
And neither does SLG. SLG is not hits and total bases it is rated by ABs which also include OUTS!
It is a metric of how many bases he might get PER AB not per HIT!
Do you know the formula for SLG without looking it up?
(1B+(2*2B)+(3*3B)+(4*HR))/AB not Hits!
“No, your problem is you don’t seem understand what is actually being discussed.”
And your problem is you have no clue what the stats tell you because you don’t even know what stats make them!
I can’t help you. Even if we use ABs to figure slugging, it still refutes only one point I made. You conveiently ignore the fact that no one is saying that you only need OBP to determine a player’s worth.
Or that you move the goal posts to go after SLG.
Or that you have no idea what “sample size” means.
Or that you again move the goal posts to tout Batting Average.
Or that WAR actually does an OK (not perfect) job of determining a player’s over all value.
Donal,
Okay so wins above replacement. Now with this stat you’re comparing a real life major league player, with imaginary replacement player.
…..Wow what a great way to evaulate players! Compare them to another player that doesn’t even exist!
What makes WAR EVEN worse (if you can believe that it gets worse from here) is that WAR uses UZR, which needs THREE years of stats to “accurately” judge a players fielding ability.
So how do you accuratly judge a player’s YEAR with with a stat that needs THREE YEARS of stats to be accurate? AND your comparing how many wins he would get you over a imaginary replacement player.
What a TERRIBLE stat!!!!
and it gets better
Chase Headly WAR 4.6
Hanley Ramirez WAR 4.4
wow what a great stat!
I’ve been saying it for years. Instead of paying a fortune for the worst years of some other teams players, put the money into scouting. Triple the number of scouts and make it the most desirable scouting job in MLB.
Pay them a recurring bonus for All Star games, MVP votes or some other criteria that sabermetricians should be able to figure out. WAR perhaps.
Most of all hold the scouting director and his scouts accountable. We have had a staggering number of first, supplementary round, 2nd round and 3rd round pitching busts yet we haven’t developed an All Star LFer in 40 years, a RFer in 25 years, one All Star second basemen in 50 years and one two way SS in 50 years.
Give the scouting director the picks AND the cash to finally assemble a starting 8 and a bench that compliments the starters, some arms for the pen that don’t cost 10 12 17 million dollars and use the surplus position players to obtain the Roy Hallidays, Roy Oswalts and Cliff Lee’s.
Position players bust far less frequently than pitchers. There is no reason we have to import some other teams dinosaurs to ride out their last days on the DL while we are paying them 10 times what their original team did and giving away draft choices on top of it.
Not just more scouts but the best scouts. Tampa Bay does it with a small market budget, KC has 12 minor league top 20 prospects by going OVERSLOT on all their picks and they’ve been doing it for years and it’s about to start paying off.
When you talk about the Mets not taking on more payroll when it’s already 150M and call them small market it’s a joke. When you look at what other teams do to keep or acquire draft picks and what they do with them you are completely accurate. It is a joke.
“Tampa Bay does it with a small market budget, KC has 12 minor league top 20 prospects by going OVERSLOT on all their picks and they’ve been doing it for years and it’s about to start paying off.”
It took them 10 million years. I don’t know the Mets fans can wait that long.
no one is saying the mets have to cut budget to 20mill, and trade everyone on the ML roster with more than 2 years of service time.
Or that they should not continue to have a high payroll.
Just that they need to start putting more time, effort and money into getting more and better prospects into the farm system.
Mets2012, KC’s only been doing this for the last 4 years. We could have been doing the same thing. Their future is bright, ours somewhat less.
Their GM is a moron. Maybe bright is a bit of reach. If KC had a smarter GM then yes they could contend for years.
Moore is probably the worst GM in the Majors but he is now sitting on the best farm system in baseball. We have spent 3 times as much as the Royals and are about 25th out of 30 in the minors and quite possibly entering a re tooling phase.
If Moore can build a great farm system what is our excuse?
T agee
I don’t want to argue with you but KC’s future is bright?
We’ll have to wait on that one.
i agree 2012. plus, imagine having to endure ten years like KC just did. i’d be turned off baseball.
speaking of KC, they should have a statue of denkinger with his arms out in the safe position outside of their stadium.
Francis, KC’s been doing this for the last four years. That’s it. In FOUR years of drafting better because of going overslot they have their first chance in 25 years.
We could have been drafting well and going over slot to get the best players but we didn’t. We spent fortunes on the 25 every single year and even of those prospects we have brought up many are incomplete. Many others are asked to break into a new position when coming up. It’s a joke.
If we had a ML ready second basemen and starting pitcher we wouldn’t have had to reach for Castillo and Perez and we could have used that 60M elsewhere.
LOL,
They don’t care about winning BB in KC.
They want any BB.
Mets2012. I know it sounds crazy. KC? Bright future? Most likely they will begin bringing up their young prospects in June and start creating a buzz. June 2012 more of them and by 2013 they’ll have passed the Twins, Tigers, White Sox and actually be in and win a pennant race.
Building through the farm takes a while and has it’s set backs but “building” through the free agency market has it’s down falls too. Have you noticed?
T agee,
I know it sounds great, but can we wait that long?
4 years plus 2 years are 6 years.
4 years of terrible BB is very long for NY.
And these 6 years of rebuilding doesn’t guarantee winning BB.
I don’t know….
I think in NY you have to mix .
you mix. they have some significant talent on the ML roster that does not have to go anywhere. And they can fill in the gaps with real talent, even if on shorter deals. this buys time for the prospects to ramp up.
Say there isn’t a OF prospect quite ready for 2012 when Beltran leaves. You just spend medium money and get a veteran (like Damon) for a year. Not advocating for him certainly, but that type of veteran.
You don’t have to pull a KC or Pitt, and put a AAA team on the field with a 25mill payroll for 3 or 4 years.
Exactly ANY, Get a place holder for a year or even two so you don’t have to live with a Perez or Castillo.
“Shopping” is just good management. Finding out the exact worth of your assets is the only way to formulate a serious plan over the long term. If they were interested in cutting salary alone, he might already be gone.