29
2010
The Sabermetrician In Me All Along
An article by 
The purpose of Sabermetrics, in a nut shell, lay in its constant pursuit of finding the value of player’s most minute components. It’s a pure almost sanitized view of a player’s performance however like it is even admitted to in the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, in human behavior there was always uncertainty and risk.
No matter how accurately you valued past performance, it was still an uncertain guide to future performance. If it were perfect by design then the players would be digital representations of themselves and seasons would be played out on a computer, with Las Vegas putting Johnny’s college fund on the line as to whether David Ortiz would ever regain his pre-performance enhanced game or not. But the game is played on the field and not in some cyberspace vacuum.
Actually I feel sorry for guys like Podesta and Beane. The purest of the Sabermetricians seem to take no joy from the game, for that is subjective emotion and clouds ones’ judgment. I suppose in their positions I can understand their reluctance, but I still find that to be a profoundly sad and lonely place to be. To not allow yourself to enjoy what you want to enjoy so badly is borderline Greek tragedy.
I happen to be someone who appreciates the value of finding…value, especially where it is least apparent. For years I would argue with friends and family about why the mid to late 90′s Yankees were better then any of their later teams.
To me it was obvious that players like Scott Brosius, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez and even Chuck Knoblauch shared a similar trait among them; plate patience with the ability to get on base. They would work the count deeper and battle the opposing pitcher so much that in little time their opponent’s weakness was exposed – their bullpens.
Lets face it if relievers were all that great they’d be starters so to me, it made sense to wear the starter down. Those particular Yankee teams embodied that premise. That’s part of the core of Saber and never once did that dawn on me at the time.
I don’t fully agree with all of Sabermetrics rationale, such as the idea that there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter”, that luck is simply the answer. Some players do well under pressure. Some don’t. Is it any different to see someone like Derek Jeter elevate his game in the postseason as it was when Michael Jordan would at times will the Chicago Bulls into dominance during the NBA Finals or perhaps Joe Montana in the Super Bowl?
Now can it be scientifically dissected and explained? Of course not, if it could I’m sure Alex Rodriguez would be one of the first to feast on the knowledge. Luck certainly plays a part in every game as I’m sure a player like Bucky Dent would admit, but talent tends to rise when need be, exceptional talent that is.
To quantify a player who excels in the spotlight – consistently – by saying his success is pure luck does a disservice to the game. Just like trying to prove the existence of God; in the end you either have faith or you don’t. And to those who argue that it’s simply luck – who would you rather have hitting with two outs, the bases loaded and down by a run in the post season – Derek Jeter or A-Rod?
When you look at the 2010 New York Mets and do a comparison to Team X – we’ll call them Team X for now – you may be surprised to say the least. First off the Mets scored 656 runs, 13th in the NL. Team X scored 697 9th in the NL. The Mets had a .314 OBP raking 14th in the NL and Team X had a .321 OBP for 9th in the NL. The Mets walked 502 times with Team X walking 487 times. Ranking both 12th and 13th in the NL. Comparitively, their pitching were both outstanding. The Mets allowed 652 runs, 11th best in the NL while Team X just 583 which was second best in the NL. Considering the Mets pitching staff from 2010, it’s remarkable.
Which leads me back to the glaring difference being the 41 runs scored differential between the two. If you don’t know by now Team X happens to be the World Champion San Francisco Giants. Just take into account if the Mets had full, average seasons from Beltran, Reyes and Bay, that run differential might be a bit different, no?
The need going into the 2011 season for the Mets will be to acquire a starting pitcher, especially since Johan Santana will be out optimistically until the All Star break. How much are the Mets willing to spend and on whom happens to be the key question. We’ve seen Jon Garland go the Dodgers for a one year $5 million dollar deal and Javier Vasquez go the Marlins for a one year $7 million dollar deal.
I just don’t see the Mets spending that kind of money, period. One of the hallmarks of Saber is finding hidden value in players that others cannot or have not seen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alderson go after a player like Justin Duchscherer.
The former Oakland Athletic has had a barrage of injuries the past few years and has dealt with clinical depression. When healthy he’s one of the better arms in the game – when healthy – and since he’s coming off of an injury he may be willing to accept a lower end deal that’s incentive laden.
Another pitcher coming off an injury that may be affordable is Chris Young formerly of the Padres. Sandy Alderson certainly knows everything there is to know about Young and as long as he’s healthy, he too may be of interest. The bottom line, the Mets are not going to spend their way to a championship, at least not in a flashy Omar Minaya-esque kind of way.
The Mets are going to be in the market for Rick Reed type pitchers and that is more than fine with me. I’m sure we’ll hear names that we’ve hardly heard of before being bantered around to fill out the rotation. That’s where having a front office of executives schooled in the art of finding value in players becomes irreplaceable.
I know MMO has touched on Sabermetrics a few weeks back so many of you might think I’m a bit late on the subject. Maybe so but in all honesty I wanted to read Moneyball for myself before going on the record. Sabermetrics isn’t some new age alchemy, it’s taking existing statistics but looking at them in a different way.
Do I believe that a team of Scott Hattebergs would be good for the Mets? Probably not. But, plate discipline is the foundation to greater success offensively. I wonder what Ted Williams would’ve said about Sabermetrics? I have a feeling he’d actually agree on many of the principles especially when it comes to hitting as I have come to as well.
About the Author: Joe Spector
I'm just your regular Joe. Staff writer @ Metsmerizedonline.com. Happily married and a father to a baby girl. I attended my first Met game at the ripe old age of 3 where my father scored a foul ball and had it signed by Lee Mazzilli, Joe Torre and Joe Pignataro. It was my Holy Grail - 'till I buried it in the backyard.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 17 | .605 | - |
| Nationals | 25 | 17 | .595 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 23 | 19 | .548 | 2.5 |
| Mets | 22 | 20 | .524 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 22 | .488 | 5.0 |
Last updated: 05/22/2012
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http://www.maroon-news.com/sports/the-myth-of-the-clutch-derek-jeter-1.862183
so there’s that.
and to answer your question, who would you rather have hitting with two outs, the bases loaded and down by a run in the post season – Derek Jeter or A-Rod?
A-Rod, because of his higher career OBP and walk rate in the postseason, just like the regular season. That and just because he’s a better player. Give A-Rod 400 more postseason plate appearances like Jeter has and then you would probably see it for sure. Alex Rodriguez doesn’t have the benefit of being a Yankee since 1996.
Unfortunately we have to live in reality and whether A-Rod gets more postseason at bats depends on his team. So far he hasn’t shown the same talent – as he shows during the regular season – in the post season. I give him somewhat of a pass since he hasn’t had that many postseason at bats but it is what it is and I think even the most fervent of Yankee fans would agree.
If you want to get into true blue Saber, Bill James believes there is no such thing as clutch, so in his eyes we’re both wrong.
Joe, I think that’s why the most common answer to your question would be to give A-Rod the at-bat. Since the sabermetric way of looking at it is that there is no clutch, then the crucial at bat would always go to the better player if there was a choice.
Individual seasons are small sample sizes compared to career production, just like say, a month of a season is small sample size to the whole season. In Jeter’s career, his slash line looks like this:
Regular season: .314/.385/.452
Postseason career: .309/.377/.472
Isn’t that amazing? It’s almost identical. Sure, you can take one or two series of great performance and anoint Jeter the same as you can take one or two series of A-Rod and say the Yanks will never, ever win with him, as we all heard Yankee fans tell anyone who’d listen before 2009. Know what’s more amazing that Jeter’s lines? How about the guy that’s never “clutch.”
A-Rod’s career slash line looks like this: .303/.387/.571
His postseason slash line for his career is: .290/.396/.528
Pretty similar, huh? I don’t believe in clutch hitting insofar as I don’t think there’s a magical potion or pep talk one could take or hear before a tough at bat that makes him better. Players play to their ability all the time. If you saw a guy with a .250/.325/.400 career slash line in the regular season and a .350/.425/.500 postseason slash line with a significant number of playoff at-bats, it doesn’t mean he’s clutch, it means he isn’t trying in the regular season.
I’m so SICK and TIRED of hearing people say there is no such thing as clutch….. the more you hear from these people the more you realize how little they know about baseball.
Clutch isn’t your career slash line in the postseason. I can’t even believe I have to say that. Clutch ISN’T stats. You either have it or you don’t. You can have a player that puts up great stats but FOLDS in the BIG SPOTS. You can also have a player that puts up bad stats but does great in the big spots. And that’s just not baseball that’s IN ALL SPORTS.
An example of that would be Rod Barajas. His stats were awful BUT in the most important situations he would get big hits. How many games did he win for us in April and May? He probably got MORE clutch hits in those two months than David Wright or Jose Reyes had in their entire careers.
And I’m sure if you would ask ANY player or manager of any sport they will tell you that some players are more clutch than others.
Rod Barajas in high leverage situations in 2010: .197/.227/.344. His OPS+ was 56. 56!!! Yes, he hit one walk-off home run. I was in the Pepsi Porch that day. Rod Barajas is so bad in the “clutch,” it’s humorous you even brought him up.
clutch isn’t stats. It’s humorous that you even think it is.
Rod Barajas got some of the biggest hits for this team during his short time here. I DO NOT CARE how many times he did it or whatever stupid number you put out here. Rod Bajaras was never a great hitter but and too bad he fell apart here – BUT – early in the year it seems the guy had MORE dramatic hits for this team than David Wright has had his entire Mets career.
Their are people who get nervous when the pressure’s on and their are people who do not – whether’ it’s sports, or you have to make a big speech, or don’t fold when you close a deal. Pressure is LIFE – some can deal with it, some cant’ no matter how many times those opportunities arise.
This saber stuff makes me more nauseating the more you learn about it and the more these soul-less people post on here.
Easy Bayonne lol. I agree with you that some players rise to the occasion and some just don’t. Sometimes you get a player like Edger Renteria who for some odd reason comes through when it matters most. Maybe it’s luck at times but I wouldn’t call it luck when Jordan took over the Bulls or when Montana took over the 49′ers.
Since Sabermetrics does leave a lot of the compensation of results to LUCK (Cosmological Constant) it’s funny that luck is never factored in as a variable.
i.e. Was Angel Pagan good or Lucky this year?
Maybe luck could be valuated by taking the average of a players career and calculating the difference between each year and the average with the difference being the variable LUCK!
I personally think you make your own luck. As they say “Chance favors the prepared mind”.
Those who go up to the plate well prepared in pressure packed situations will perform at a higher level than someone who does not.
Since preparedness doesn’t show up in the scoresheet it can’t be quantized into a metric.
Bill James calls it Luck I call it preparedness! Mental Strength! Fortitude!
Bill says it doesn’t exist because he can’t seem to find a way to put a number to it.
But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. It is in fact the thing that makes the difference between great and average players.
And sure the numbers in clutch and normal situations will not differ.
Because the mindset and preparedness of the batter is usually the same under ALL conditions.
But some are better than others. Some do their best work in pressure situations.
Until somone weeds out and defines what is clutch and success or fail (which is the real problem statiticians have with the concept) they will never agree that it exists.
Because as Xtreeme say they are TRYING to be good scientists and not just throwing arbitrary numbers in to the math the way Einstein did.
But if they would make the attempt to seperate performance based on what they do with pressure and without, the minimal difference could be rated and quantized to create the variable they claim does not exist.
To use Xtreeme’s examples:
Regular season: .314/.385/.452
Postseason career: .309/.377/.472
This player is -.005/ -.008 / + .020
A-Rod’s career slash line looks like this: .303/.387/.571
His postseason slash line for his career is: .290/.396/.528
Arod would be -.013/ +.009/ -.042
Now first off let me say that not all post season at bats are CLUTCH at bats. Thats the first problem with the examples given.
It’s a faulty premise. A Guy can have great numbers in the post season in non-clutch situations and still fail miserably in the clutch such as when Beltran and Howard struck out to end the game with the bases loaded.
A-Rod has quite a few failures in the post season during clutch situations.
But even using the numbers cited (Since they were provided and not able to be maligned by the one who posted them)
Look at the difference between the two players.
Arod would be -.013/ +.009/ -.042
Jeter would be -.005/ -.008 / +.020
Seems that both fall off a bit due to the increase in difficulty of playing against better teams who are likely to be in the playoffs.
But one drops more than the other.
You could even calculate further by adding the respective differences together.
A-Rod would be -.046
Jeter would be +.007
X didn’t say what those stats are (I expect they are OBP/SLG/OPS) so that simple calculation may not be the best. But it does show that some players do actually do better than average when things are more important assuming that all postseason at bats are considered clutch which I don’t really agree with.
See, you can’t make assumptions. That’s why stats are the best. It wasn’t OBP/SLG/OPS. Seriously? .314 + .345 = .452? Come on.
And to show that Jeter’s better in the clutch tha A-Rod because the you decided to add up difference is ridiculous. Know what? I think A-Rod is the bett postseason player. Know why? He has the better OBP. It’s not by much, but it’s there. I’d take A-Rod in a postseason at bat any day of the week and twice on Sunday. There’s a better chance he’ll reach bas and a much better chance he’ll drive the ball.
Extream says – Alex Rodriguez is the better post season ballplayer than Derek Jeter because of his OBP.
That folks – is sabermetric thinking. People who know baseball will look at that INSANE statement and just shake their heads. It’s a shame really that these people are just too lazy to think about baseball and just look at their numbers on pieces of paper and go “see?”
That being said, yes A-Rod in 2009 post season finally broke the stigma of failing in the clutch which followed him his entire career – as most normal, SANE baseball know. You know – the normal baseball reader and the 99.9 % of everyone you see on TV or read.
It’s just a few fantasy people here that probably never stepped foot on a field – that are the vocal saber-nutcases and their orgy of devoid-of-heart, devoid-of-intestinal fortitude, devoid-of-the human interraction that sports requires -numbers that we respond to.
Hopefully not much more, though.
Next time list what the stats you are posting are! Or did you conceal them because you knew they would be used against your argument?
Bottomline is Jeter was + in all categories combined while A-Rod was -!
And getting ON BASE isn’t exactly a CLUTCH hit.
I have never heard of a clutch walk have you?
But run and hide from your own numbers when the rest of the world knows that A-Rod does not rise to the challenge in the postseason!
Well, I didn’t post what stats a slash line shows because I assumed, obviously incorrectly, that a slash line was a very basic premise in baseball. Go look it up.
And I never said A-Rod was the better post-season player. I said I’d rather have him up. At bat. In an offensive situation. What proof do you have that A-Rod is a terrible post season player or batter? Or that Jeter is a great post season player or batter? Give it to me.
I already showed you my proof using your nondescript numbers!
No, you added together the differences in those numbers. You still don’t even know what those numbers are. That’s not proof. That’s whatever you think it is, but it’s proof of nothing.
Hey they were good enough for you to use so I used them as well!
can’t argue with your own numbers!
You claimed there wasn’t much of a difference in the numbers because you were too lazy to SHOW the difference in the numbers.
I wasn’t so lazy!
And proved there was a remarkable difference between the two players in how they performed in what YOU deemed a CLUTCH SITUATION!
Sorry charlie but your numbers proved your assertion that there wasn’t much difference to be wrong!
No, you proved nothing. Know why? Because you don’t know what your analysis means. I never said you were wrong. I said you were without proof. If you think summing the differences between two players regular season and post season slash lines can adequately compare who the better player is, then I suggest you start cracking open some books and doing a little research. You might be on to something huge. You could be a millionaire.
What you need to do is use the same method you just used on two specific players and use it for the millions of players for the hundreds of teams over the thousands of seasons in the modern era. If your theory holds true for a vast majority of the players, you better a hold of Baseball Prospectus post haste and copyright your findings.
See, where you go wrong with sabermetricians is you seem to think they get an idea, and try and twist numbers to make their idea work. That’s what you just did to “prove” your theory. You can’t use numbers like that. You have it backwards. The sabermetricians use the numbers to discover things, not the other way around.
Bill James discovered that the teams with the higher OBPs score the most runs a very, very high percentage of the time. He never woke up one morning, and decided to prove it by adding the difference of the sum of the averages or whatever. He took the rankings of the team in one category (a cold, hard fact) and the ranking of the teams in the other (another cold, hard fact) and found they compare very favorably. And he did this in each league over many dozens of seasons before making a concrete hypothesis. That’s what sabermetrics is and that’s what you need to do with your equation above. I genuinely hope you’re on to something.
My analysis was just showing the DIFFERENCE between the two numbers you said there was NO difference in.
I showed there was PLENTY of difference between the two!
Doesn’t matter what the numbers are or represent! If it mattered you would have described the numbers and weighted them which you did not do!
My comparison was simplistic, I even said so!
Yours was NON EXISTENT!
You said there was no or little difference.
I showed where there was a big difference between the two players!
Sorry but you lose, thank you for playing using your own numbers to prove your statement false!
What the numbers themselves are don’t matter. YOU deemed them important enough and complete enough to determine there was NO difference between the players in post season.
I however showed you there was a clear difference.
One player had MORE positive numbers in the post season while another player’s numbers declined!
rod barajas was so great that he was given away for nothing. he had a three week hot stretch and otherwise he sucked. bad.
Nobody is saying he’s great. It’s just that for the first part of the season Rod Barajas helped CARRY the Mets on the field and OFF. Any person who understands traditional baseball knows that (can’t believe I have to use the phrase traditional baseball)
It’s a shame for him and the team that he settled back down to his career numbers.
Rod Barajas was a joke. He failed when the pressure was on all the time. He hit one walk of homerun. That was all he did.
Absolutely wrong.
Rod Barajas helped carry the Mets during the early season run. Everybody knows that. Normal people know that. Sensible people know what. I can’t be bothered what a couple of anonymous misanthropes who type on a board think.
You guys cannot think on your own because your leader David Kores…..Jim Jones…I mean Bill James directs you not to.
It’s easy – Rod Barajas helped carry the Mets for awhile last year. Too bad he stopped hitting and went back down to his career numbers. That’s just truth – ask any sane person.
And how do you know that? You watched? You remember all 66 at bats he had with the balance of hte game in his hands? Each and every one? You can tell me what he did?
I know I can’t. I mean, I remember one. His walk off home run against the Giants in early May after backup catcher Eli Whiteside tied it in the top of the 9th off K-Rod. I remember everything about that at bat because it was a huge, momentous at bat with a ton of drama. But I have to look up what he did in those other 65 at bats. And he was just completely god awful in every aspect, except maybe facial hair stubble.
What run was this you’re talking about? Barajas started off atrocious, with his .227 BA in April. Were you talking about June, when the Mets were at their high water mark for the season? Barajas hit .183 in June. Pre-All Star break, he hit .238. Barajas wasn’t worth the uniform he wore, which is why the Mets signed him for peanuts, then gave him away for nothing.
Again, mixing the numbers around to suit your argument.
Rod Barajas helped carry the Mets early in the season, Everybody knows that, all SANE people know that.
I watched the games, that’s what I saw and that’s what MOST people saw and then later on he tailed off and then traded.
I don’t call a guy names just because he’s not hitting, I’d rather use the same insults YOU direct at players who try but cannot perform like we hope – and hurl them at you. You see?
Sorry, I didn’t realize terrible performance meant twisting the numbers. I wasn’t aware his .238 BA was good, and it was ME who makes it look bad. Tell me what you saw when he helped carried the team. Help right my feeble brain.
As a matter of fact, I invite all SANE people to do so.
I’m not gonna explain to you what you DON’T want to see.
Guess you didn’t want to post his .309 AVG w/19 RBIs in May either. And then we can take the middle of the previous and next month and tweak the numbers even more.
I’m wasting my time w/you because you’re an anonymous – whatever – who has a twisted outlook on baseball. I know if I spoke to any normal, career baseball professional they would agree that Rod Barajas helped carry the Mets on the field and off early in the season. That’s a fact most people know.
No, I saw what Barajas did in May. But YOU said he helped carry the team on their early season run. In May, the Mets were 12-17. That’s a run? They were 14-9 in April and 18-8 in June. THAT’S a run. So who’s twisting what numbers around? You tell us he helped the team on their run, when he was non-existent in the months they played well, but when the team did poorly, he decided to show up. And that’s carrying the team?
You need to watch more baseball. Maybe read soem books. Learn what you’re talking about.
Rod Barajas belts 9th inning HR to help Mets beat Reds:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2010/05/04/2010-05-04_rod_barajas_belts_ninthinning_home_run_lifts_new_york_mets_over_cincinnati_reds_.html
Barajas belts walk off HR vs. SF:
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/05/mets_catcher_rod_barajas_drill.html
North Jersey.com on June 19:
Behind the success of the staff has been catcher Rod Barajas, whose seamless assimilation into the Mets’ clubhouse is universally identified as a reason for the team’s sizzling chemistry.
“He deserves so much of the credit,” starter Jon Niese said.
Willie Harris makes dazzling catch to rob Rod Barajas of game winning hit:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/clutch_hits_elude_mets_AHFAAPCLCIpdGfsI8pXVeP
Thank God for Rod & Ike – espn.com on May 8:
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/columns/story?columnist=darcy_kieran&id=5172987
Xtream also failed to mention that in the game Rod Barajas hit walkoff HR vs. SF – he hit 2 HRs.
The list of contributions Barajas made to this team offensively, defensively, in the clubhouse, and with the pitchers is well known. Than it all ended when he stopped hitting.
That’s all it was.
I’m gonna say it again.
Rod Barajas was a MAJOR RESPONSIBILITY for the Mets early season run. Now however you want to break that down to suit your silly little way of thinking is your business.
And I’m asking you how, and you can’t tell me. I want to quench my thirst for knowledge and you’re taking your ball and going home. There’s something I need to know about the game that I obviously missed and you didn’t. How’s that good coaching, Coach?
take my ball and go home? You honestly believe that? What a clown besides not knowing much about baseball.
Anyway I have a list of links with all kinds of Barajas headlines from various dates for people to read but it’s awaiting moderation – hurry up fellas.
Can’t believe you want me to explain what most normal baseball fans need know explanation for anyway
That’s the difference between you and I. You tell me the Mets succeeded in part because of what Barajas did. I tell you they won in spite of him (when they won). Whereas I can give the totality of his production to prove my point, you’re going to post individual, cherry picked links of the double he got in 8th ining, or whatever. He had 66 at bats when the game hung in the balance. Do you have 66 links?
Bayonne you’ve been owned on several occasions today. with ACTUAL numbers and proof. as opposed to your “I watched the games” and “everyone knows that”. just stop man, it’s getting borderline pathetic.
Doesn’t matter- you can probably find 66 at bats that Alex Rodriguez failed in the clutch in despite Hall Of Fame career numbers. And he WAS a prolific choker that was going to the HOF before 2009.
You’re not gonna make me research some numbers that “AT FACE VALUE” can support your weak and WRONG assessment.
yes probably, and then you will probably find WAY more than 66 at bats where Jeter failed in the clutch. way more than when he came through. but he’s clutch right?
I have to waste my time with 3 anonymous misanthropes in Xtreemignorance, Chris, & marteen.
Meanwhile Adam Rubin DM me back agreeing that Ruben Tejada is the Mets best defensive 2B at the moment but “can’t hit enough right now to be a starter, it would appear” – that’s a fair statement.
When we watch TV and discuss sports with the people we hang with EVERYBODY knows these things, everybody knows Rod Barajas helped carry the Mets offensively, defensively, with this clubhouse guidance and not to mention – helping the pitching staff.
It’s just 3 anonymous misanthropes and some of their ilk that like to numbers acquired from select portions of the season to help support their bottom line.
But in a real baseball world – their bottom line is just a small part of baseball.
It does matter. I sure can find 66 at-bats of A-Rod failing. I can probably find 100. But what you fail to realize is this. Barajas ONLY has 66 at bats. And he failed in 54 of them. A-Rod’s 100 failures are probably out of 150 ABs. I just looked up A-Rod’s high leverage situation at bats with the Yanks year by year. His LOWEST BA was .264. If A-Rod was a complete failure with that number, what was Barajas?
The Dodgers declined on Tuesday to offer arbitration to Type B free agent Rod Barajas.
Barajas, 35, batted .297 with a .361 OBP and .578 slugging percentage in 25 games after coming to the Dodgers from the Mets in an Aug. 22 waiver deal. He earned $500,000 in 2010.
A 12-year Major League veteran, Barajas is a .239 career hitter with 109 home runs and 402 RBIs in 912 games.
The Dodgers will receive no compensation in Draft choices if Barjas signs with another club. A Type B free agent yields a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds if he is offered arbitration, declines and signs elsewhere.
you guys. forget that bayonne is totally wrong and barajas actually killed the offense. bayonne played the game , so he knows.
Don’t underestimate experience. Bayonne tells us he has a lot of it. Now, onto understanding how to assess the game with modern tools . . . .
hey, did you just call bayone a tool?
If clutch isn’t stats and it can’t be measured then it doesn’t exist. If a player is more relaxed in pressure situations and gets big hits then that should show up in his stats. Sabermetrics folks are arguing that clutch doesn’t show up in the stats and thus isn’t real. They are being good scientists and basing their opinions on the data, not on baseball superstition.
Hence my point on the existence of God. Either you have faith or don’t…period. You can’t prove his existence any more than disprove it.
you can’t see or smell Carbon Dioxide either – therefore it isn’t real….RIGHT!!!
Well Bryan, about 20 years ago OBP was not a stat. I suppose it didn’t exist either!
Just because you can’t find the stat or the number does not mean that the number or concept does not exist.
You have to be willing to look to see if the stat exists!
Not just dismiss it as fantasy because it is hard to calculate and quantize.
Bryan,
some people can’t handle pressure. Not only in sports but in real life also.
“They are being good scientists and basing their opinions on the data, not on baseball superstition”
Basbeall isn’t science ok? Sometimes the numbers don’t always add up – just like in real life.
Do I really have to explain this?… my god.
Actually Vinny, the day will come when the Math will be capable of pre-determining the outcome of a game.
But a grand unified theory of Physics must first be discovered and all the variables of wind speed, opponent, ball anomolies even chaos will need to be factored in.
And even then the results wouldn’t be absoloute because of the Uncertainty principle of Quantum Mechanics!
LOL
By the time the Math is capable of doing this we will no longer be playing baseball as we will be doing much more interesting and constructive things with our free time! LOL
No, there is no difference. Just like you said, I didn’t include it becaue it did not matter. Jeter’s difference in OBP from the regular season to post season is .008. He has 671 post season PAs. To match his career regular season OBP, he would have to have reached base four more times than he did. Four times in 671 PAs. That’s miniscule. That’s non-existent. So you’re right. I didn’t include it because it does not matter and his slash lines are eerily similar in either scenario.
There is a HUGE difference in the last number!
One is positive in Post and the other player’s is negative.
You might have had a chance if you sisn’t cite the last number in the splits but you did and it blew up your comparison that there was no difference!
Wrong again, my uninformed friend. That last number is SLG%, and the .20 spike in Jeter’s post season numbers over his regular season numbers account for the measly total of twelve extra bases per season in his career. Thanks for playing, though.
Yeah and how MEASLY is going DOWN in SLG in the post season?
Doesn’t matter what the number is you just gave us the numbers to show that Jeter does something under pressure A-Rod does worse under the same pressure!
Jeter is more CLUTCH than A-Rod!
Sorry itchy post finger.
Not onl is jeter more clutch but whehn he gets on base in the postseason he gets a lot more bases than A-Rod does making him an even better guy to have come up in a clutch position such as runners on base!
Did you not know how to read stats? A-Rod’s post season slugging percentage is better than Jeter’s by a very wide margin.
I read thestats just fine.
A-Rod’s numbers dived in the post season compared to Regular season.
jeter’s went up!
Arod -.013/ +.009/ -.042
Jeter -.005/ -.008 / +.020
We are not comparing the players against each other only their comparisons between regular and post! and what the difference is between regular season plus or minus of the post numbers.
A-Rod is a homerun hitter, he’s supposed to have a higher SLG than Jeter!
But he is a different player (minus) in the postseason than he is when compared to regular season.
Jeter is a BETTER player than his regular season in the POST!
Jeter is CLUTCH (if you buy the entire postseason as clutch situation) A-Rod is not!
He plays UNDER AVERAGE in pressure packed (or Clutch) situations.
Jeter plays ABOVE average in those same situations!
But I know now that you realized you stepped in it with those stats you will try as usual to change the subject to something else.
You’re absolutely right. Jeter is 100% “clutch” if there was such a thing. So is A-Rod. A-Rod slugs a little less than his regular season numbers and Jeter slugs a little more. But A-Rod’s OBP, which is more important anyway, is better in the post season and Jeter’s is lower. So should I argue that A-Rod is more clutch because Jeter’s better in one stat, but A-Rod is better in the more important stat? I could. If I was you.
But since clutch is a figment of one’s imagination, the point is moot. The very simple fact is that both players, one deemed extremely clutch, and one deemed not clutch at all, have strikingly similar numbers in the regular season and in the post season.
How about another super “clutch” hitter? David Ortiz? He clutch enough for you? Regular season slash line is .281/.376/.543. Postseason is .283/.388/.520. If we used your absurd new theory of summing the differences…..let’s see……..+.002 in BA, +.012 in OBP and wait…..Ortiz is a slugger, right? Just making sure, because he slugs -.023 in the postseason. So he’s a combined -.009 using your formula.
See this is why people should do research. I gave you every opportunity to fact check your little theory, but you insisted it was correct because it showed Jeter was more “clutch” than A-Rod. But now I used it on Ortiz, a guy who is known as the clutchest post season player in recent memory, and your theory would refute that.
So where do we go from here?
As I expected, when you get caught change the subject to something else!
First off talk about research your the lazy a$$ who thought comparing postseason to regular season said something about Clutch not me. I just used YOUR dataset because I didn’t want to argue about the data (which you tried anyway!)
Second, You claimed there was no difference in the players based on what you defined as CLUTCH SITUATIONS which I showed you there WAS! a dufference. Pretty big one! One guy gets on base more while the other guy gets on multiple bases! Now I know you think getting on base is the best thing you can possibly do in baseball but if you have SLG (which you need to fall back on whenever OBP doesn’t jive with RS) not only did you get on base but you got MORE BASES!!!!!
Maybe With RISP A-Rod walked instead of driving in the run. OBP says nothing about what you scored which is why you want to believe that there is no CLUTCH because clutch means to do more than TAKE A PASS!
Jeter does it!
As for Ortiz I see no reason to change the subject at all, just because it didn’t work out as you expected. I suggest if you really want to talk about clutch you should identify what situations exist in the regular season that would be better used for singling out what a clutch situation was and wasn’t!
Cause as it stands A-Rod’s OBP could have gone up in NON-CLUTCH situations and when the clutch at bats were presented to him he didn’t do squat with them!
I know you think getting on base is the most important thing in the world but HOW you got on base and HOW MANY basses you got while getting on are a lot more important to being a clutch hitter or not!
Sorry but I think I just burst your OBP as a religion bubble again but it needs to be done!
You are so tunnelvisioned and single minded about OBP that it clouds all your reasoning in every argument you try to make. And when it gets proved wrong you quickly try and change the subject to hide from the embarassment!
I don’t really care if David Ortiz is clutch or not!
All I know is that CLUTCH hitters exist and are the at bats that help teams win championships!
A-Rod may get on base more but he has never been the MVP or the guy to bat them into the championship in pressure situations!
He Folds!
Like Dave Kingman when he was here…
never hit the home run when we needed him to only later when the game was already lost would he hit the solo homerun that meant nothing because no one else was on base, and when there was he hit into the DP or struck out!
My guess is Ortiz is probably a bit more clutch than that!
Truth is Joe, Bill James is probably the one who is wrong here.
The main problem with mathematical analysis (and the people who try to create them) is if they can’t seem to find the equation/variable to show the results they assume it doesn’t exist.
OR WORSE,
They see that the equation doesn’t work the way they predicted it would and compensate by adding a variable to compensate for the flawed result. This sometimes does however lead to the correct result.
Einstein did something similar with his relativity math. He noticed the equation didn’t work in a steady state universe so he added a variable called “cosmological constant” to it to make the numbers work. This variable was based on nothing but the math and only inserted because he had a bias towards a steady state universe. It wasn’t until Edwin Hubble discovered the universe was not static and in fact expanding that Einstein admitted that the inclusion of the constant was his greatest blunder! The original Math was good but the philosophical bias of the author added variables that were not needed or even REAL. Other variables had already covered the end result properly.
Since Bill James could never find a stat that showed what was a clutch at bat and what was not, (he could never find a variable to ever calculate such metrics), baseball simply doesn’t keep such stats. And as is normal with any attempt to use math to describe reality, when the calculated prediction of performance doesn’t hold true it claims that if a greater statistical sample were to occur, the numbers would pan out.
It claims he was UNLUCKY which is the excuse used whenever Sabermetrics don’t prove out using real world numbers in the equations.
Well if you can be UNLUCKY then you can also be LUCKY, and therefore I propose that you can also be CLUTCH! Clutch IMO is the ability to make your own luck!
Mathematics says a woman could not lift a car to save her baby but the real world has numerous examples of people doing great things beyond their average capability during times of increased pressure and stress.
But Bill can’t seem to quantify this in any way. Since he can’t quantify it in the math he presumes it simply does not exist.
Since Bill can’t provide the conditions for “CLUTCH” he choses to simply ignore what clearly does exist.
If the math held true you would have to wonder just how good would guys like Chipper Jones be rated in sabermetrics.
As it stands now and according to Bill James, guys like Chipper Jones simply do not exist!
I think he is wrong!
“Since Bill James could never find a stat that showed what was a clutch at bat and what was not, (he could never find a variable to ever calculate such metrics), baseball simply doesn’t keep such stats.”
Yes he could, yes he did and yes they do.
How did he find what he has said doesn’t exist?
I mean lets be real here! Either it exists or it doesn’t. Hesays it doesn’t. You say it does.
So tell us all what stats you think tells us what is a clutch at bat and don’t tell me the incomplete RISP stat because that only takes account of runners in Scoring position not guys on first base which is just as important and harder to score than one on second or third. Also doesn’t take into account SacFly’s and RBIs. It is as useless as you claim Batting Average is because it doesn’t take into account everything the guy may have done with runners on any base.
BTW I notice you completely skipped over this challenge to cite the stats you say he found but claims do not exist.
I’m sorry, I misread. I didn’t mean to imply James found stats. Stats do exist, though I don’t believe in the veracity of those stats. Late and close has a specific definition I don’t agree with, and that’s commonly referred to as “clutch.” but no, you’re right James himself did not come up with any definition for a clutch at bat because his theory is clutch doesn’t exist.
“Mathematics says a woman could not lift a car to save her baby but the real world has numerous examples of people doing great things beyond their average capability during times of increased pressure and stress.”
I agree good point Metsie
Did anyone see him early in the year in Philly? I’m not sure the standards for “carrying” a team, but Barajas, at least to my untrained eye, DID in fact help carry the team. I realize I’m not a scout and my “eye test” so to speak, is based on opinion only, but it sure felt like he came up big.
Joe, I agree with a lot of what you said but on a side note it seems as if you may be confusing Moneyball and Sabermetrics. Moneyball only uses Sabers. It is not the Sabermetric Bible as some would have us believe.
Sabermetrics is an attempt to find out things about players that are hidden deep inside the traditional stats. Nothing more and Nothing less.
It is a means of Statistical analysis thats starts off on the premise that the worst thing a player can do is make an out (and this could be debated). And the formulas are devised in many cases to be as comparisons to the “AVERAGE” player/team in the league.
This is why you have things like Pythagorean wins, and WAR.
Moneyball uses many of these Metrics to find players whose traditional numbers don’t draw large money interest but whose numbers may be comparable or “Above Average” when sabers are looked at and therefore identified as an undervalued commoddity.
Moneyball uses sabermetrics but that does not mean moneyball IS sabermetrics.
This is my biggest issue with some Saber religionists who misread Moneyball as some sort of Sabermetric handbook or BIBLE.
It most certainly is not!
Sabers can be used to evaluate big money players just as well as finding undervalued players. Moneyball is really all about finding cheap talent. Sabers is about comparing players to each other and uncovering details lost and buried deep in the traditional stats.
You can just as easily use Sabers to decide who to give the big contract to like say Bay or Holiday.
Moneyball would not even entertain talking to either one!
OBP is an important stat in Sabers but only because of the bias of the premise Sabermetrics is based on. Making outs is BAD!
But not all outs are bad. Certainly not as good as a hit but some outs are worse than others. A Sac Fly is not as bad as a ground out. Strikeouts are more desirable than hitting into DPs. (Sabers seem to recognize this last point.)
The premise is wrong because it assumes that the OUTS are the limiting factor of the game. 27 outs and your done, but thats not really true as you can easily go extra innings and get many more outs than 27.
I won’t debate that here, would take the thread way off topic.
Bottomline is I agree we will be playing some moneyball this year and this year only. Once those bad contracts clear you can all throw that moneyball book and predictions based on what Oakland did in it out the window!
First off because OBP is no longer the most undervalued stat and two because the whole reason to implement Moneyball in Oakland will no longer exist.
I still expect Sandy to use deep statistical analysis to choose and aquire players. But those who have wrongly interpreted Moneyball = Sabermetrics are going to be very disappointed when they see what happens with this franchise!
Some aspects of Moneyball will be used on low level bench depth and fillers, But don’t be surprised when they go after some guy who is getting a big payday and goes against the grain of Moneyball simply because they know you need to have those types of guys to win ballgames and drive in all those guys who do get on base.
Most of what you said isn’t entirely wrong, except for the last part. The idea that Moneyball is simply going for the cheapest players for the sake of it is incorrect. Oakland HAD to do that because their revenue streams were constantly in the bottom 5-8 in baseball. If you think for one second the A’s would have let Giambi walk if they could have afforded him, then YOU misread Moneyball, not the saberheads.
When the Mets open their wallets after next season and sign one or two big-ticket guys, it’s not going AGAINST the grain of Moneyball. It’s the same principal, valuing highest the most important stats. Just with the luxury the A’s never had. A payroll.
This idea that when we have more money we are going to sign big ticket FAs is as old as baseball itself and as old as free agency. You don’t need no stupid book written by some guy to tell you that when the Mets have more money available after next season that they will go after some higher priced free agents that they think will help this team best to win. OF COURSE you get the good talent that you feel are the best for your team. That’s baseball, that’s the business of baseball, and that’s trying to be a winner.
It is beyond SICKENING that these guys, especially this Xtreem fanatic seem to rely on this book so much. Just goes to show you how much these guys can’t make their OWN baseball decisions.
That’s my point! Moneyball is not about signing cheap players because they’re cheap! Whent he Mets have money, they will spend it. I didn’t make up the philosophy and you didn’t make up the philosophy. Moneyball is a documented case of a team with no payroll (NOT THE METS PROBLEM) competeing by using STATISTICAL EVALUATION of what stats lend itself most to scoring runs. It’s as simple as that. Moneyball isn’t a REAL thing, it’s a made up name to give an association to the philosphy of a cash-strapped front office who won a lot.
If you think I rely on Moneyball, you have never read a single one of my posts.
You need to read the book again Xtreem!
“We’re not going to know what the next undervalued stat is until the Pirates vs. Royals World Series. Then we’ll see how teams with no payroll got there and determine what’s undervalued.”
That is probably thre most rediculous thing I ever heard.
Who did Oakland copy to figure out OBP was the undervalued stat during the time of Moneyball!
I think I got you down now…
You don’t know jack about the analysis part of Sabermetrics only that the stats exist and you cherry picked the few that were mentioned in Moneyball as being the most important so you ignore all the rest.
read some Bill James my friend you might learn a little something about how Moneyball was one way of using Sabers but not the science of Sabers itself as a be all and end all approach to using them.
You have really misread Moneyball and this is probably why we have had such long drawn out arguments over Sabers and your religionist approach to OBP which was more important to moneyball than Sabermetrics itself!
If sabermetrics believed in what you believe they wouldn’t bother with all the other Metrics it has created!
But I give up it’s not my hobby to teach the ignorant.
Just steer the rest right when an ignorant tries to play the all knowing genius!
You never cease to amaze. What are you arguing? Oakland didn’t COPY anyone. They used their research and analysis to determine OBP was an undervalued stat and they capitalized. After the fact, someone wrote a book and they spilled the beans on what they did. Then everyone stopped undervaluing OBP. Now when we see a Pirates/Royals World Series, everyone is goinna lose their heads wondering how in the blue hell they got there. Then whatever they used won’t be undervalued anymore. Simple.
Hmmm contradicting yourself as you usually do again…
Quote 1 – “We’re not going to know what the next undervalued stat is until the Pirates vs. Royals World Series. Then we’ll see how teams with no payroll got there and determine what’s undervalued.”
Quote 2 – Oakland didn’t COPY anyone. They used their research and analysis to determine OBP was an undervalued stat and they capitalized.
So which is it slappy? We need to wait for someone else to identify what the undervalued stat is or we can deduce this on our own?
Please get your story straight for once in your life!
Um. That’s the same thing. I said the same thing. Both times.
Know what, I’ll simplify it for you. When teams with low payroll and no expectations succeed, people then inquire about their business model and endeavor to replicate it.
Better? Oakland didn’t copy anyone. People tried to copy Oakland. And now their their method, OBP, isn’t a secret anymore, we’re not going to know the next method until we see ANOTHER low-rent team succeed. Get it now?
Anyone else agree that what he said in both quotes was the same thing?
I doubt it!
Who did Oakland use to find the undervalued stat?
NO ONE!
So it can be determined without some broke team finding success!
All it takes is looking at the cheaper players and finding the qualities that make them good ball players and good contributors.
You don’t need to look at what other teams did other than the fact of how much of a players contributions were team related and fit the situation you intend to put him in to get the same product and results!
But I will put the question I expect you to ignore as usual again to you and see if you bite.
What teams did Oakland look at to determine what the undervalued stat was?
And why wouldn’t they be the inventors of Moneyball and not Oakland?
this is true. you guys are sucking the soul out of the game. perhaps because you yourself did not play the game, like bayonne did.
Again your using Sabermetrics and Moneyball as the same thing. They are not!
Moneyball is about saving money! It only uses sabermetrics.
So like I said signing a big name player is in line with Sabermetrics. NOT MONEYBALL!
MONEYBALL Sabermetrics
You can use Sabermetrics just as well without buying cheap players.
Moneyball is all about saving money so you can hold onto the few expensive players you have but rarely if ever going after new big money players.
Moneyball is about the MONEY!
Sabermetrics is about player comparisons. Just cause Moneyball uses Sabers as the numbers it uses to compare does not mean they are the same thing!
Moneyball is about finding stats that are ignored and undervalued by the league. Is OBP still undervalued? I tend to doubt that.
OBP may still be a central part of Moneyball but it is not the stat where the value is going to be found 10 years after the fact!
Moneyball if taken to it’s logical conclusion will be looking at other things aside from OBP since you will not be saving as much money now as you would during the time Moneyball was implemented and usage described in the book Moneyball.
That’s what I said. Stop with the preconceived notion that you have to argue everything I say just because I say it. It’s getting old.
“OBP may still be a central part of Moneyball…” is a statement made in part because you dont understand moneyball. Moneyball relies on the important, undervalued stat. Back in the day OBP happened to be it. Now it’s not. Everyone knows about OBP. We’re not going to know what the next undervalued stat is until the Pirates vs. Royals World Series. Then we’ll see how teams with no payroll got there and determine what’s undervalued.
moneyball or no moneyball, saber or no saber, Sandy is going to be getting the guys with OBP and Slug%, because he knows those are the two most important predictors of runs scored, no matter if they’re cheap or expensive. So whatever you wanna call that.
Oh, and the reason OBP isn’t undervalued anymore is because everyone has caught on. So now if you don’t value OBP, you had better get some mean pitching (San Fran), because otherwise you are going to lose. Yanks won in ’09 cause they had both, Sox won in ’07 cause they had both, Phils didn’t even have great pitching in ’08 and they still won. because of their OBP and Slug%, with just enough pitching to get by. Pitching, OBP, and Slug% wins.
If you think Ruben Tejada is even sniffing the major league roster this year you are sadly, sadly mistaken. He was an Omar boy.
I will bet you $100.00 CASH that Ruben Tejada WILL be in the major leagues this year. Care to take that bet? You don’t have the guts to.
And duh – yeah – getting guys who can hit for average with power is always a nice thing to do if you have the means. And hey, if they walk a lot, that’s good too.
i wouldnt bet anyone who, like you, has played the game.
…and to even THINK that Ruben Tejada would not be in the majors absolutely convinces me you DON’T KNOW baseball, you DON’T KNOW how it work and you DON’T KNOW what it takes to win in baseball. You’re talking about a young man who just turned 21 and couldn’t even be served in NYC last year while playing for the Met.
Not only will Tejada be in the major leagues next year, that’s the easy part but this kid will most likely have a long and prosperous career and hopefully will play well into the 2020s.
He might make the team. But I’d rather have someone else in my lineup. At least in 2011
I agree with that. It’s funny how the name Orlando Hudson comes up but he could be a nice signing and let Tejada back up 2B and SS.
But Tejada, no doubt, will be in the major leagues next season.
Don’t you think it would better serve Tejada to play a full year in the minors? Let him play 2nd/ss everyday and get 500 at bats. He is not major league ready as a hitter.
I hope he is not on the major league roster.
If I were a betting man, I’d take your bet with 2 to one odds.
as would any smart baseball person my friend.
take the bet at 2 to 1 odds….at worst we have September call ups.
Why would you hope Tejada is not on the major league roster opening day?
Would that mean Murphy succeeded at 2B? I know you like him.
I would have to see that to believe it. I personally cannot see him sustaining 2B at the big league level
Before I think he would be better served playing in the minors let me see how he does in spring training. What if he hits good?He may win the starting job. It’s possible.
I think Tejada would be better off at age 21 with a full year of AAA ball. And yes I like Murphy as a hitter. Defensively at 1st base he was good enough and could have gotten better. I rooting for him to be our starting 2nd baseman.
BTW – I’d take 2 to 1 odds that Tejada doesn’t make the opening day roster. That’s what I meant.
That I won’t do. It’s reasonable to think he may not be on the opening day roster but it’s completely unreasonable and uneducated and just plain stupid to think that he won’t be in the majors next year.
bayonne you are similar to orlando hudson.
Bayoone, aren’t you the guy who way back didn’t like Daniel Murphy because in your mind he didn’t handle himself well while on the bench?
What other startling insights do you have?
Orlando Hudson will more likely be in the majors next year than young Mr. Tejada. Unlike Bayoone, I don’t claim future events with absolute certainty because the future of many players become prologue to what might have been but never was.
By the way, Murphy also played a mean 1B in 2009. See:
http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2010/02/coming-to-daniel-murphys-defense.html
Kind of rightt Des,
I know you’re an old fella and you guys like to embellish old stories but your story is a little off. I did think that Daniel Murphy was brainless – and good of you to remember that way back from last year. But after seeing him interview later on I was completely WRONG on that – notice I capitalized WRONG. I don’t remember saying he didn’t handle himself well on the bench but check with Danny Krieger on that – he may remember it better than me and he’s the resident Daniel Murphy expert.
I DO have an opinion on him though and I still think he does not project to no more than a backup player or AL DH.
He WILL NOT be playing 1B unless Ike Davis gets injured and I will be very surprised if he’s a starting 2B – maybe backup once in a while. Again, it’s my opinion
Well Des,
I DO like to give a prediction on what a player may become. Scouts do it all the time.
Murphy did NOT play a mean 1B. From what I saw he was just – eh. I go by Keith Hernandez who spent all of 2 days with him (I think) and he said on the air that Murphy does not have good range.
He’s not a 1B person. You need to scoop bad throws, leap for bad throws, hold the runner on properly, charge the bunt, etc.
In other words – be able to do what a actual first baseman like Ike Davis does. Ike Davis is our starting firstbaseman. Period.
You already have made Reese Havens a major piece for the Mets next season. Doesn’t he have to stay healthy first? Doesn’t have to play baseball in the minors for awhile first?
He won’t be on the opening day roster. Ruben Tejada – I give a 70/30 chance of being on the opening day roster and a 100% chance of playing major league ball next year.
He will not be a career AA player like YOU said. Especially since he has already made a good name for himself at the big league level already. He’ll get better.
If neither Tejada nor Havens makes the team as a starter at 2B, but both are available for the roster as a pinch hitter (an unlikely scenario I understand), who do you think would be preferred by the Mets? (Disregard sending either out for more playing experience.)
Will Havens even be healthy by the time spring training arrives.
You are drinking the Havens cool aid WAYYY TOO EARLY old man. First thing I want to do is hear that he’s healthy and ONLY then will i begin any discussion about this kid.
Meanwhile, back to reality, if Tejada does not get the starting job w/The Mets he can either be send down or another very possible scenario is him making the roster as a backup for SS and 2B. You can disagree and think I’m wrong but at least I deal only in reality.
Chris “getting the guys with OBP and Slug%, because he knows those are the two most important predictors of runs scored”
Hey Chris is that your mom I hear Calling you?
Ok OBP of .350, SLG of .400
Predict the runs produced and don’t say another thing until you can!
lol, you’re both funny. especially Metsie though because he still thinks I mean you can predict exactly how many runs you can score using two averages.
No Chris your the one who thinks that. You said so!
Chris (and I quote) “Sandy is going to be getting the guys with OBP and Slug%, because he knows those are the two most important predictors of runs scored,”
If they are predictors then make a prediction! You are the one who seems to think they predict, not me.
ok, if you have a high OBP and a high Slug% then you are probably going to score a lot of runs.
there is my prediction.
thats a supposition not a prediction.
Moneyball is defined by how Billy Beane, Podesta, and the rest of his staff used Saber to achieve their goals which were confined by the money or lack of money they had to spend. I got ya Metsie.
I’m glad we agree here.
I just wish more people who want to discuss and support Sabers would read more Bill James and Less Billy Beane.
They might be better able to defend their Sabermetric approach if they read more about the sabers and less about how someone else used them.
They MIGHT even find a better way to use Sabers to build any team regardless of payroll available.
Here’s the question…with a tie game in a swing away situation (runner on 2nd, 1 out, bottom of 7th, infield in) who would you rather have up, a guy w/ a .310 BA/.350 OB/.440 SLG or a guy w/ .260 BA/ .350 OB/.440 SLG? I’ll take the guy hitting .310 even though so many say BA is unimportant…
Here’s a quote from Bill James’ Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame.
“Statistics are evidence about the quality of the player’s ability. They should be treated exactly like any other evidence. When a statistic is given about a player, you need to submit it to a few little tests….
Is it true?
What does it mean?
Is it relevant to the discussion?
How is it relevent to the dicussion?
Is it biased for any reason?
What does it indicate?
What does it prove?”
In my eyes, BA is the only relevant stat here because the others are equal, it’s the only gauge on that slash line. both guys have an even chance of getting on base, but right here I’d rather have the hit b/c I don’t want to set up a chance for a DP, even though obviously a walk would be better than the out. I could talk more about that but I wanted to keep it short.
Also, for the “next big stat” for that Pirate/Royal world series, I think I would try to use Secondary Avg ( {total bases – hits} + walks + stolen bases) / at bats…..I’m intrigued by this stat, especially since all offence but singles are used, and it takes into acount what you do once on base.
I agree Matt. in that situation def I would take the .310 hitter. but that is obvious if all other stats are the same.
Right chris, it is obvious, my point is to say all stats are relevant, OBP may overall be more important, but there are situations that BA or something else may override the OBP.
Plus alot of the “debates” here are very biased so I kind of wanted to throw a wrench (albeit a small one) into the mix.
I don’t get Bayonne Mets Fan’s attempts to seperate sabermetrics from “real baseball” when real baseball executives utilize sabermetrics & saber is the search for objective knowledge about baseball.
Join the club Brian.
Brian, no one gets anything about Bayonne. He just likes to fight, with no real reason.
Brian,
Do all baseball teams have executives that utilize sabermetrics? And I would think those that do utilize them to an extent also have their feet planted on the ground in taking all things into consideration.
I happen to disagree with you that in that a lot of saber seems to be stats that we already know all rolled into one for a quick overview of a player. You’re going to have to convince me how saber minded people have some type of an edge over stand baseball operations that have been ingrained into our culture for over 150 years. I don’t see anything special happening with teams that our known to use saber minded people. Oakland is coming off several bad seasons in a row and Billy Beane has never won a World Series. Boston ALWAYS had slugging teams and high-scoring offense as far back as I can remember – maybe it was someone named Pedro Martinez who had a major role in them winning the World Series, don’t forget their closer too.
How has saber changed baseball for the better? What has it done?
Brian Cashman acquired Nick Swisher due to this alleged “objective analysis” (holds back laughter) because they felt his line drives had an usually high rate of being caught and that would change with the Yankees. And guess what? He hit better in that new small banbox called Yankee stadium and now they’re looking to move him after all because of his failure to produce under pressure in the playoffs.
And like that jackass Xtreemnonsense said – Yeah, I like to fight for no reason, it’s all just random…yeah, right. What a tool.
And Des is some old guy who who had first hand knowledge that Jerry Manuel was on a plane headed to Florida going to coach the college baseball team at William Jessup College, one problem…..they have no baseball team.
I was intrigued by the title of the post and it drew me in. I have to say I was pretty disappointed after reading it. I disagree with a lot here (there is a lot of straight-up wrong information) but I’ll mostly highlight this:
“Actually I feel sorry for guys like Podesta and Beane. The purest of the Sabermetricians seem to take no joy from the game, for that is subjective emotion and clouds ones’ judgment. I suppose in their positions I can understand their reluctance, but I still find that to be a profoundly sad and lonely place to be. To not allow yourself to enjoy what you want to enjoy so badly is borderline Greek tragedy.”
I am not exactly a sabermetrician, in that I don’t invent new statistics. But I am as saber-inclined as they come — and I love baseball as much as the next guy. I love going to games, watching David Wright hit, watching Johan Santana pitch. You’ve created a false argument here by assuming that all saber-inclined people take no joy from the game. I don’t even know why you would write that.
Fandom and objective analysis are not mutually exclusive. If anything, the saber-minded people love the game that much more, as they seek as much information about the game as possible.
Well James there’s actually a line in the book in which Beane himself is described by the author as a man who is almost preventing himself from enjoying the game because of his views which are steered by Metrics. I was extrapolating from that and in my opinion yes, the extreme believers of Metrics come across as cold, calculating and superior to everyone else and they don’t skip the chance to tell people that.
With that said, I don’t disregard the importance of Metrics at all. Sabermetricians by the way don’t invent statistics. Everything that they use is already there. It’s just how you look at things and in what perspective you put them in relation to other statistics.
The thing is as fans everyone is entitled to their opinion. Unlike MLB Scouts who are paid for their skills us fans don’t compare and sadly despite how much some may wish it just never will. Yes speculate try and guess who will do good and who will fail this is what fans that love the game do and imo is one of the great things of the game.
Just remember that in the end that is all we are fans of a great game not MLB Scouts.
How do you know what fans do here? I feel I can scout and give an opinion on a player..is that a problem to you?
I have no idea how Hojo or Dave or Joe D evaluate players – but they have every right to evaluate a player and give a prediction.
I can’t give an evaluation because I’m not a paid scout? That’ baloney. I am going to continue giving my own opinions on players skills based on MY evaluation of them.
Sorry if that bothers you.
You do your best to write a column and do I think you shouldn’t? That you should leave the writing skills to a paid journalist? No. I don’t care what you do.
You must of not read the part that says,
“Yes speculate try and guess who will do good and who will fail this is what fans that love the game do and imo is one of the great things of the game.”
I did,
I don’t like you saying that fans can’t compare. Maybe somebody here would make a great scout and would already do a better job than some other scouts if given the opportunity. You DON’T KNOW THAT. You don’t know what everyone here does for a living so to assume nobody is capable is a bad job on your part and frankly very condescending.
Again, You must of not read the part that says,
“Yes speculate try and guess who will do good and who will fail this is what fans that love the game do and imo is one of the great things of the game.”
Again,
Yes I did. And again, I expounded on it a little more. Is there another way you want it explained? Again – you a very polite way of being condescending. Still condescending.
I understand that you have issues with me and there is nothing I can say that you won’t argue against so I am not surprised by you feeling that i am as you said “condescending”.
Though other than you I don’t have any problems with anyone else on this site and other than having a difference of opinion with a few I find that I never get the reaction from a comment that I get like I get from you.
Despite that I don’t mind since those things don’t phase me. I forgot who said it in the shoutbox (forgive me whomever it was I have always been bad with remembering names)but they lost a dear friend recently and well said how that puts things in perspective when it comes to the silliness that is argued here at times.
A point that was well made so understanding I can’t do anything to help you get over your reactions to what I say I can only hope you eventually see the silliness in some of the items you wish to argue over.
well,
You can rationalize anything you want and you can spend all the time you want placating people here as well.
Just remember watch what you say when you don’t know what people here do for a living or what they’ve done for a living.
I don’t care at all for you, what can i say.
And I have a problem with you making this announcement “If anyone feels they have the skills to be a scout then let them stand up and be heard”
I have a problem with that – in your own way you’re being complicit. I feel I have the skills to be a scout and I think there should more people here that should feel the same way. And like I said…I did work for Major League Baseball in the summer of 2000 but i don’t want your apologies.
Fair enough Bayonne, you feel you have skills to be a scout? OK I will concede that I think you have as much skill at being a scout as does anyone over at Amazin Avenue.
OK? Good.
If anyone feels they have the skills to be a scout then let them stand up and be heard.
Other than that most people writing here never worked for MLB in any capacity and if they have now is the time to let me know and I will apologize to that individual.
I feel I have the skills to be a scout. Absolutely……. and YES I have worked for MLB over at 245 Park Avenue South.
Want to know more? Or do you still want to be condescending and arrogant…but in a nice way..making statements about a fan base not knowing what they do for a living.
OK well with all due respect just because you feel you could be doesn’t mean you have the skills.
You are a fan of the game and unless you worked for a mlb team in a player development capacity your a great fan of the game and that is something to be proud of i know i am but that just doesn’t mean you have the skills to be a MLB Scout.
I am sorry.
That’s your opinion pal,
A person can DEFINITELY have the skills to be a scout and not work for MLB.
No…I am sorry.
“That’s your opinion pal,”
My point exactly. It is all about opinions.
BTW I don’t know if that adress is accurate or not but i punched in the info and i get the location of what appears to be a restaurant by the name SushiSamba Park
http://www.sushisamba.com/index.cfm/id/8/id2/20.html
Maybe Bayonne scouted in a Japanese League. LOL
Well duh,
Naturally it is – otherwise let’s get rid of blogs, talk radio, and sports reports on TV.
Everybody has opinions is a nice, clean, easy cop out for any subject.
Again I am sorry you feel this need to be so argumentative with me all the time Bayonne. I find you can make a valid point at times and have no reservations in saying so when you do.
I take no sides here other than the side I happen to agree with depending on the topic at that time.
You seem to always take any opposite side that I am on.
Something well that is out of my hands.
Hopefully you will get past that but if watching how much you engage in other arguments I know not to hold my breath.
he takes the opposite side of ANYONE on this site. The only one that agrees with anything this dude says is Metsie.