31
2010
Sickels: New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2011
An article by Hojo's Mojo
From the one and only John Sickels of Minor League Ball, his just released Mets Top Prospects list for 2011.
1) Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+: He’s coming around with the bat. How fast will the new regime push him, and what position will he play long-term?
2) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B: I’m concerned enough about his health to lower his grade a notch, but I still like him. Not a technical rookie due to service time, but under the innings limit and people ask about him.
3) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B: Love the power arm, but lingering questions about his command keep him from higher grade at this point.
4) Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B, Grade B-: I am very impressed with his power but concerned about defense and reports of bad work ethic.
5) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B-: Stock is starting to slip. Still young, still has potential, but development hampered by injuries and poor handling by previous front office. May need change of scenery.
6) Cory Vaughn, OF, Grade B-: Tools are excellent. If he maintains the improved approach he showed in the NY-P, he’ll blossom.
7) Juan Urbina, LHP, Grade B-: Highly projectable but a long way from the majors. Grade is somewhat aggressive but I like what I hear about him.
8 ) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade C+: Would rank higher with at least a B- or a B if he could stay healthy.
9) Lucas Duda, OF-1B, Grade C+: Older prospect, turned on the power this year, should be a useful bat.
10) Zach Lutz, 3B, Grade C+: A third base version of Duda; lots of power, other skills marginal.
11) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade C+: Others may rank him higher due to speed and tools. Very young, fast, lack of power is a concern, many similar players have failed and something is making me cautious here.
12) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade C+: Still like the arm, could bloom if control sharpens up again. He’s actually a sleeper again.
13) Armando Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: Scouting reports point to mediocre stuff, but excellent statistics.
14) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade C+: I think he’ll be a useful fourth outfielder.
15) Sean Ratliff, OF, Grade C+: Was Double-A breakout genuine or a fluke? Has always had power, but strikeouts held him back.
16) Albert Cordero, C, Grade C+: Sleeper catching prospect features good glove, power, but needs to tighten strike zone.
17) Matt Den Dekker, OF, Grade C+: I think he can be a good fourth outfielder.
18) Darrell Ceciliani, OF, Grade C+: Younger and faster than Den Dekker and Nieuwenhuis, but less polished.
19) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Improved slightly and very young.
20) Mark Cohoon, LHP, Grade C+: Finesse lefty could reach majors in ’11.
21) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C: He can eat up innings but I think his ceiling is limited.
He also lists about 15 others which you can check out here.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 17 | .605 | - |
| Nationals | 25 | 17 | .595 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 23 | 19 | .548 | 2.5 |
| Mets | 22 | 20 | .524 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 22 | .488 | 5.0 |
Last updated: 05/22/2012
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I am surprised at how low Ceciliani is but still overall I have no complaints.
Whatever happened to Satish Ram? Does he still post here? I can’t recall when I saw his last post.
I have a few thoughts:
-I’ve said that multiple times: Flores will most likely be moved to 3rd base next year because the shortstop position is not for him. For someone of his size, he can make the jump.
-The only complaint about this list is that F-Mart is above Vaughn. Vaughn should be in the top 5, not Martinez.
-Interesting Sickels mentions that Cohoon could reach the majors in ’11. I agree. He could make the team out of Spring Training if they gave him an invite.
Let me ask you Hitman. Don’t you think other than Flores Sickels seemed have rewarded the power hitters by ranking as high as he did?
I believe so. For example, Aderlin Rodriguez. As great as his numbers were during the season, his defensive numbers SUCKED so I believe he should be a bit lower on that list.
Another one is Matt Harvey. I’ve been hearing a lot about how he’s this power pitcher. That’s nice and all but can I see what he can do in the minors before placing him #3 on the charts?
Another thing, why is Cohoon ranked so low yet guys like Nieuwenhuis and Ratliff, who’s K/BB rate was deplorable, are higher?
One thing that stands out to me is how Sickels has Aderlin ranked 4th and Kirk Nieuwenhuis 14th. Aderlin has power but he barely played A-Ball.
Cohoon is ranked low because he doesn’t have much power (His FB tops out at 88-90).
A power pitcher with middling control is always ranked higher than a control pitcher with middling power when evaluating prospects. Doesn’t mean they always go on to make better major leaguers, but that’s how you grade prospects.
I have to say I agree with that thought as well.
Vaughn is 21 old in A ball. F-Mart at 18 put up comparable numbers in A ball. At age 21 F-Mart hit .290/.337/.540 in AAA. How is Vaughn a better prospect than F-Mart?
How is Vaughn better you ask? Vaughn is a bigger, stronger kid than Martinez. You say they had comparable numbers in A ball?
Vaughn: .307/.396/.557/.953 (72 games)
Martinez: .279/.336/.457/.793 (76 games)
These are their numbers in the first year in the minors and Vaughn clearly blows Martinez’s numbers away in every category. The way I see it, Vaughn and Martinez are gonna go in two separate directions. Vaughn may end up the top Mets propect next year should he have a big year & remains healthy.
Yes, Martinez put up a line of .290/.337/.540 in AAA BUT how many games he played that year? 45. Also, his numbers alarmingly went down this year in AAA (.253/.317/.455). Not only that, but he has yet to play a full season in which he could prove that he can be both healthy & durable.
Vaughn may not be a veteran minor leaguer like Martinez, but if Vaughn shortens his swing a bit and doesn’t muscle up too much and try to swing for the fences every AB, he will be a star.
There’s a huge difference between A+ (where Fernando spent the final 30 games of his 76 game first season, and 45 games were played in the Sally which is also a tougher league the than the NY Penn) and A-. So don’t make like Vaughn’s first season at a lower level and 3 years older was better than Fernando’s, because it wasn’t.
F-Mart hit .333/.389/.505 in A ball. He hit .196/.260/.375 in A+ ball which like Evan_S said is much more advanced.
“F-Mart hit .333/.389/.505 in A ball” – TruFan.
This is better – He hit .333 with 5 HRs in 192 ABs the OBP tells you he walks a lot. That’s good. That was one season in A ball in 2006
“He hit .196/.260/.375 in A+ ball”
- In 2 seasons of A+ ball he hit .201, 5 HRs, 134 ABs. One season in 2006, the other in 2010. It’s good to know those things too instead of just throwing out random “numbers”
That’s better right?
What TruFan didn’t tell people is in how many ABs those stats were accumulated and he should have mentioned that the A+ stats were accumulated over 2 seasons, 4 years apart. But that’s saber people, they just give you numbers, never mind the real story.
But I do agree that Fernando Martinez is at a more advanced stage than Cory Vaughn is for the Cyclones but you could say that Cory could possibly pass up Martinez in a few years, just not now.
I don’t know where you get your information from. F-Mart did indeed hit .196/.260/.375 in A+ ball w/ 4 HR in 123 PA’s. I didn’t mention PA before because Evan_S already provided the # of games he played in each level. Plus my point was providing the splits at each level since Hitman provided the number of games he played.
the stats right here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9210&position=OF
Oh, and the time he spent in 2010 in A+ should not be lumped in with his time there during 2006. That’s like saying Beltran’s minor league ABs this season should be lumped with his ABs before he first reached the majors.
you are correct there.
I got my info from Baseball Reference.
Assuming PA’s means plate appearances. I’d rather have the ABs and BBs, and HBPs separated. It tells me more of the true story. PAs i either have to guess or I have to ask more questions, the other way is clear and concise. Also telling me he hit 4 HRs in 123 plate appearances doesn’t tell me if he hit those 4 HRs in 90 ABs, with 30 BBs and 3 HBP. If I knew that i’d be more impressed..but just saying plate appearances is disingenuous to the person reading the stat sheet.
Hits, walks, HBPs are all different outcomes when a batter comes to bat. Separating walks from the other outcomes makes less sense than putting them all side by side in the context of how many times the batter had opportunities to get these outcomes. The # of walks, singles, doubles, triples, HRs a player gets over a # of PAs gives me clear picture of what the player did vs. the opportunities he had. I don’t care about making a stat for the sake of making a player look impressive, I just want the complete, accurate picture of what that player did, and sabermetric stats can help link and compile the individual stats to give an overall picture of the player’s performance.
that’s just overdoing it, man. This is not rocket science it’s baseball. I think the intention to begin with was to never make a stat just to make a stat.
You’re going to HAVE to come to your own conclusions on some stats. You want everything laid out for you in a number and all you’re going to do is wind up back at square one.
I’m sorry but that was just too much, i’m laughing because that last explanation was too ridiculous.
I thought of the Zoo Story – you travel a long and circuitous route only to wind up back where you started.
Huh? This has nothing to do with anything remotely complicated. All I’m saying is that BB’s shouldn’t be separated from the hits, as AB discounts the times the player walks or gets hit. PA gives a clearer picture because walks and HBP are just as much a part of what a batter does as hits. The current use of AB is about as absurd as not counting a single as an AB instead of a walk or HBP.
HITMAN, u do realize Vaughn’s not as vetted as F-Mart don’t u? a few months of pro-level is basrely enough to be recognized let alone vaunted into TOP 5. Does he truly need such pressure? What difference does it make as nost likely EVERYTHING CHANGES NOW as they get measured by MONEYBALL STANDARDS. In most regime changes as extensive as ours prior regime assets tend to alter in perception of FRESH appraisal eyes. Prospects become suspects, suspects become fodder Let’s wait & see what becomes of most of them as Sandy applies his slide rule.
Wow, Matt Harvey is number three? That was fast! And yet his comments about him aren’t glowing.
That rating made me wonder too.
I thought Captain Kirk was ranked very low. Did he have a bad year? I thought I read a lot of good stuff about him in Tej’s minor league recaps.
He had a great year, but the lingering issue with him is plate discipline. If he could fix that, he’d be a B or B+.
Not to go Off Topic but did anyone see the video of Alderson answering a few tweets? The last tweet with a question was from MetsPolice. I am sure that is a little feather in their cap.
I saw it just before I cruised to MMO, and yes it was fantastic. I think we are all going to love the transparency and openness of this new regime led by Alderson.
If the rumors of DePodesta are true and the Mets sign him to the FO. Mets fans will like him even more cause he writes his own blog.
Another thing is Vaughn and Ceciliani were both in Brooklyn yet Vaughn is ranked 6th and Ceciliani 18th.
Yes Vaughn crushed the ball but Ceciliani was a hitting machine and played Solid D in CF plus he has speed.
Ceciliani reminds me of what Jose Reyes was in the minors. He can hit for average, he has the speed and he’s an XBH machine. He could reach the majors in the next 2 years at the most.
I think Ceciliani should be ALOT higher. He ripped the NY-Penn up and can fly with good D like you said, and he’s only 20.
My biggest complaint is that Jordany Valdespin didn’t even make the top 20? That’s just wrong. “Spin” is a very talented kid who has some power, contact skills, and lot’s of speed. He’s also hitting .300 in the Arizona fall League, which is pretty good. I feel he should be ranked somewhere in the 8 to 12 range. What’s the deal? Albert Cordero and Sean Ratliff are better prospects? I don’t think so.
Valdespin gotta work on that K/BB ratio. Drawing only 10 walks while striking out 68 times is not good any way you slice it. Him, Nieuwenhuis, Ratliff and Brahiam Maldonado all have the same problem.
I’m talking about the top 20, not the top 5.
I know, and I agree that Valdespin should at least crack the top 20. He should replace Matt Den Dekker on that list. I never even heard of Den Dekker to be honest.
Den Dekker played for University of Florida, was a 5th round pick this year. had a .346/.404/.471 line in 27 games for Savannah
my takeaway is, Sickels didnt rate anybody an ‘A’ prospect and wasn’t enthused about any of them. Not good. i suppose that fits with a ‘middle-of-the pack’ basket of prospects.
and where the hell is reuben tejada? i know he barely hit his weight, but he played a damn good field and he played 2010 @ 20 yrs of age…and he may play 2B for us in ’11…and where’s daniel murphy? no longer a ‘prospect’ i guess….
LoL, He was wished away to the cornfields.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C34g5mz1ZQ
Ruben Tejeda is no longer a rookie in the MLB. He had more than 130 ABs this year, so he’s no longer a rookie, which means he’s no longer a prospect.
Jenrry Mejia is no longer a rookie either because of service time, but Sickes said he was going by only the ABs and IP requirements, and not the service time. For pitchers, if you throw more than 50 innings, your no longer a rookie. But, Mejia threw somewhere around 30 innings, but he had too much time on the MLB roster to remain a rookie.
And no, Daniel Murphy is no longer a prospect. Niether is Nick Evans.
Sickels usually has no more than 25 or so A, A- prospects in baseball. And C+ isn’t a bad grade, and many of our C+ plus guys are high upside players like Cecilliani, Puello, Havens and Familia.
This list doesn’t carry much credibility with me. Dillon Gee at 21 is ridiculous considering his late season performance in the MAJORS! Mejia at 2 does not seem to reflect that he is injured. FMart at 5 is ridiculous since he has never been able to stay on the field. Harvey at 3 is rather quick for him, are the others that bad? What I’ve seen of Niewenhuis is better than a 14 ranking and certainly more deserving thamn FMart. Given those questionable numbers, I have no confidence in the rest of this list.
I think 21 is about right for Gee. Those 20 guys do deserve their spot over him. Sure, he was good this September but he doesn’t have great stuff at all, isn’t overpowering, and gives up a lot of homeruns.
eddie kunz is a bust
…which is why you NEVER draft relievers early. Because they never pay off for that pick. The mets could’ve drafted Austin Romine, Corey Luebke and a few others who will be competing for MLB playing time by at least 2012. Kunz, if lucky will be a serviceable middle reliever, aka useless.
I am extremely surprised at how Sickels rates some of their prospects. Capt. Kirk at 14? Dillon Gee at 20? He has a rookie ball and a penn league guy ranked higher. Kirk plays a premium position, and even if he shifts he could still be very useful.
The Duda ranking I agree with, because he came out of left field, no pun intended to actually being a useful player.
The true shame is, minus Mejia, F.Mart, Duda and Gee, none of these guys look to be factors in Flushing until 2012 at earliest. The lack of a sure-fire superstar really hurts their trading position, because I don’t think many teams would go wild for some packages. The way its looking though, either Aderlin or Flores may be getting traded. They both project out of position, except Flores appears capable of a move to 3B and Aderlin will need a move to 1B.
Still, its scary to see the position depth in the Mets. At nearly every position on the diamond they have a possible MLB contributor to some extent…just all flaw diamonds. Its either glove, no bat. or no glove, bat.
Dillon Gee reminds me of Rick Reed stuff. Would you take a Reed on this staff?