Wild Card Series Preview: Mets Host Padres

The San Diego Padres beat the New York Mets four out of six times during the regular season in 2022 but that means nothing going into their best-of-three Wild Card Series on Friday at Citi Field.

The Mets have a welcome boost to the Wild Card roster with outfielder Starling Marte able to give it a go despite his finger injury. Mets‘ top prospect, Francisco Álvarez, is also on the roster.

Both teams are headed to the playoffs with a veteran manager at the helm, Bob Melvin for the Padres and Buck Showalter for the Mets. Though, neither of them have had much success in the postseason.

The Padres were aggressive at the deadline trading for young superstar Juan Soto, shutdown closer Josh Hader, lefty bat Josh Bell, and infielder Brandon Drury. Soto’s numbers have been subpar by his standards during his time in San Diego as evident by a 130 OPS+ that includes a very low .390 slugging percentage. Hader has struggled overall all with the Padres to the tune of a 7.31 ERA, but he has returned to form over the last month with a 0.87 ERA down the stretch.

Padres also have superstar third baseman Manny Machado and versatile All-Star Jake Cronenworth in the infield. Ha-Seong Kim gives San Diego another versatile player that is great defensively and on the base paths.

In the bullpen, the Padres have decided to carry four left-handers including starter Sean Manaea. Of course, on the Mets side in the pen, they have the best closer in baseball with Edwin Díaz after his incredible season in which he had a 1.31 ERA and struck out 50.2% of the batters he faced.

The Mets, with Marte healthy, will bring a deep lineup headed at the top by on-base machine Brandon Nimmo. This followed by some combination of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, NL RBI leader Pete Alonso, and MLB hitting leader Jeff McNeil. Daniel Vogelbach has been terrific for the Mets against right-handed pitching with a 150 OPS+ them since coming over from the Pirates.

Interestingly, the Mets decided against carrying Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker for length in the bullpen and Trevor Williams is not on the roster as well after pitching six innings on Wednesday. Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo will have to play key roles in front of Díaz.

The other big question out of the bullpen going into the series is who will come into that key spot to face Soto? The Mets are carrying two lefties David Peterson and Joely Rodríguez. Neither of them has faced Soto a ton, but both have handled him in a small sample size. Specifically, Peterson holding him 1-for-6 and Rodríguez holding him to 0-for-3. The Mets’ relievers that Soto has faced the most are Lugo (3-for-10, HR) and Díaz (2-for-8, 2 HR) with some success against both.

One thing that could play a role in the Mets versus Padres series is San Diego pitchers/catchers being the worst in baseball against stolen bases. Padres allowed 89 stolen bases with only 13 caught stealing. The Mets aren’t a team that runs a bunch, but due to the San Diego struggled, we could see them being more aggressive.

Friday, October 7, 2022 – Game 1, 8:07 PM: RHP Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) vs RHP Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA)

The best-of-three Wild Card Series gets kicked off with a battle of veteran right-handers that have fared very differently in the postseason. Darvish has a 5.18 ERA in his seven playoff starts and then, on the flip side, Scherzer has a 3.09 ERA in 21 playoff starts.

Darvish has completely dominated the Mets this season with two starts of seven innings allowing only one run in total. For his career, Darvish has a 5-0 record with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts against the Mets.

Scherzer faced the Padres once this season, at Citi Field in July. He went six innings of two-run ball and eight strikeouts. Scherzer has been, well, Scherzer against the Padres in his career with a 2.88 ERA in 17 starts.

An interesting note for Game 1 is the contrast in ERA between the two starting pitchers with umpire Adrian Johnson behind the plate. Darvish has a 5.25 ERA and Scherzer has a 2.08 ERA, both in five starts.

Saturday, October 8, 2022 – Game 2, 7:37 PM: LHP Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA) vs Chris Bassitt (15-9, 3.42 ERA) or Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.08 ERA)

The Mets have said that the outcome of Game 1 will influence their decision on who will pitch Game 2. This potentially mean that Bassitt may pitch the second game of the series if the Mets take the first game, and deGrom would go if they lose Game 1.

The lefty Snell has a 2.73 ERA in his career against the Mets, but they did rough up the former Cy Young winner on June 6 this season with four runs in four innings. The trouble for the Mets this season has been hitting left-handers and the addition of Darin Ruf, then the promotions of Mark Vientos and Francisco Álvarez haven’t done much to alleviate those struggles. With Ruf and Álvarez on the Wild Card roster, it will be interesting to see which one gets the start against Snell.

Bassitt is coming off one of his best seasons in which he posted a 3.42 ERA over a career-high 181 2/3 innings. Bassitt has a 6.60 ERA in three career starts against the Padres with two of them coming this season. They were completely different results. The Padres scored seven runs off Bassitt in June, but conversely, he had one of his best starts of the season in July at Citi Field. Bassitt allowed only two runs in seven innings and struck out 11.

DeGrom is still one of the best pitchers on the planet, but he’s allowed at least three runs in four straight starts. For the 2022 season, deGrom had a 3.08 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings. The two biggest concerns for deGrom have been the nine home runs he’s given up and a blood blister that has been an issue in recent starts.

The two-time Cy Young winner didn’t face the Padres this year, however, he has completely dominated them in his career to the tune of a 1.28 ERA in 10 starts.

Sunday, October 9, 2022 – Game 3, 7:37 PM (4:00 pm if Rays series is over): RHP Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA) vs Bassitt or deGrom

The 29 year old Musgrove completed his second-straight season of making at least 30 starts and going at least 180 innings. Musgrove has a 5.83 ERA in six appearances (five starts) against the Mets in his career. The Mets scored four runs off Musgrove in July, including a three-run homer by Pete Alonso.

Again, the Mets could go either way with this game depending on how the first game pans out.

Prediction

My initial prediction for the MMO Roundtable had the Mets in two games when I thought they were simply going with Scherzer and deGrom in the first two games, but that has changed with Bassitt potentially going in Game 2. I believe the Mets will still win the series, though it will take three games assuming they go with that strategy.