The Mets have more than their fair share of terrific young pitching, and with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, they would have pocket aces should they get a chance to play a series in October.
But what if the Mets earn a Wild Card spot, and find themselves in a one-game playoff with a trip to the NLDS on the line? Joe D raised the question, so I’ll attempt to tackle it.
Before doing so, I must state the obvious (but often taken for granted)— both of these pitchers are phenomenal. If the Mets are running either of these guys out there, their chances to win are very good, and life will be very tough for the opposition. If there is a better option, the lesser option is still pretty damn good.
In addition, the Mets might not find themselves faced with a choice. If they end up with a Wild Card spot, they will likely have been fighting for it until the very end, which means they won’t have had a chance to rest their top pitchers at the end of the regular season to prepare them for the playoffs.
New York’s final three games are against the Nationals, so even if they fail to win the division, that might not be confirmed until the season’s final days. If one ace is unable to go, the decision will have been made easy for the Mets.
If deGrom and Harvey both pitch too close to the date of the Wild Card Game (which will likely be almost immediately after game 162), the Mets will have to go with a third option— assuming the strategy of having them split the game on short rest is off the table.
But for the sake of the argument, let’s say both are fully rested and ready to go with a win-or-go-home game against the other NL Wild Card team. Who should get the ball?
The Stats:
2015:
DeGrom: 10-6, 2.05 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 127 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, 0.6 HR/9 2.56 FIP (19 GS). Team is 12-7 in his starts.
Harvey: 9-7, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 125 IP, 8.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.6 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.69 FIP (19 GS). Team is 11-8 in his starts.
Career:
DeGrom: 19-12, 2.39 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 268 IP, 9.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 6.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.62 FIP (41 GS)
Harvey: 21-17, 2.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 363 IP, 9.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.0 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.80 FIP (55 GS)
The Argument for deGrom:
DeGrom has been the better pitcher this season— better than Harvey, and probably better than anybody not named Zack Greinke. DeGrom also has a slight edge in terms of their career numbers. If the game is at Citi Field, deGrom’s 1.59 career ERA at home would only help his case. And Harvey might have more risk. How effective will Harvey still be come October in his first season back from Tommy John Surgery? Harvey has been very prone to the long-ball this year, how do we know it won’t come in a killer spot? Harvey has given up 4+ runs 5 times and 7 runs 2 times— how do we know he won’t pull a Tom Glavine with the season on the line? DeGrom has only allowed 4+ earned runs twice this year, and gives up fewer home runs.
Jacob has been the team’s best pitcher in 2015, so why not run him out there with the 2015 season on the line?
The Argument for Harvey:
Harvey hasn’t been as good as deGrom this season, but he has been good. His ERA is solid but not great— it would be great if not for a few catastrophic games. When he’s on top of his game, he’s better than deGrom, despite what the stats from their respective peaks (2013 for Matt, 2015 for Jacob) might suggest. Harvey’s 2013 FIP shows that he was even more dominant than his ERA would show, while the opposite is true for deGrom. And anybody who saw Matt pitch in 2013 can tell you that when Harvey has his best stuff, he’s the best pitcher East of wherever Clayton Kershaw happens to be at any given time.
Harvey hasn’t lost velocity, and he hasn’t been wild, but he has had struggles with his command in the zone at times since his return, which is why he hasn’t been able to put up the dominant stats we saw two years ago, and which is why he has made mistakes that have ended up in the seats. If Harvey can keep the ball in the park, he’ll win— his ERA in his 9 starts without a HR allowed is 1.35.
DeGrom isn’t without risk. How good will he be as he reaches the end of his first full season? How will he handle the big moment on the mound? Harvey has more of a bulldog mentality, which would likely serve him better with the season on the line (although deGrom certainly didn’t shrink from the spotlight in the All-Star Game).
Matt Harvey is the ace of this staff. For me, “Ace” carries a greater meaning than “best pitcher on the team” (which I think Harvey is, anyway). Unless he’s really struggling heading into the game, I’m giving him the ball when it matters most.
So…?
If the Dodgers had one game that determined their fate, they would almost certainly go with Kershaw over Greinke, even though Greinke has been better this year. For the same reason, I would go with Harvey— he’s our guy, and if he brings his best stuff, he’s our best option. That being said, the argument for deGrom is certainly very valid, possibly more so than the case for Harvey. As I said in the beginning, you really can’t go wrong with either pitcher. Harvey has more risk, but you don’t skip over your ace because of what might happen if he doesn’t have his best stuff. Give me Harvey.
Who would YOU start, and why?
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