What The Betting Markets Are Saying About The 2024 Mets

The saying goes, “Vegas always knows.” Of course, spring training is still 54 days away and Opening Day is not until March 28. However, it is still interesting to see what external thoughts have to say on how the 2024 Major League Baseball season will go, and specifically, how the New York Mets will fair. No better way to see some early projections than using what the betting markets have to say.

As a refresher, betting odds are set based of what that said company or oddsmaker believes the implied probability of that said outcome is to happen. Lines then are adjusted based off how much money is bet on who and what side, and so on and so forth. Odds also try to take into account the future. For example, the San Francisco Giants are slight favorites to land star pitcher Blake Snell. That is likely slightly contemplated in their other future odds; World Series, win total, etc.

With all that being said, what are the markets saying about what to expect in 2024?

Note, all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of the night of Saturday, December 30. For those curious, odds of +150 would net $150 in winnings when $100 is wagered. Further example is +1600 odds would net a winnings of $1,600 when you wager $100.

World Series

As it stands, the Mets hold the 11th-best odds to capture a World Series title in 2024. Their current odds are set at +2800 (implied probability of 3.45%). They top the likes of the St. Louis Cardinals (+3000), Tampa Bay Rays (+3200), Arizona Diamondbacks (+3500), San Diego Padres (+3800), among several others.

Notable other takeaways are the Los Angeles Dodgers having the best odds at +380 with the Atlanta Braves trailing them at +650. The New York Yankees, Houston Astros, and Philadelphia Phillies round out the top five, in that order.

National League Pennant 

How about which team is the most likely to appear in the World Series as the National League’s representative? The Dodgers, Braves, and Phillies own the top-three odds. Then, the New York Mets check in with the fourth-best odds at +1300 (implied probability of 7.14%), a steep drop off from the third-favored Phillies at +600.

That leaves 11 teams trailing the Mets with worst odds. The most notable are the Padres, who won the eighth-best odds, as well as the National League East Miami Marlins, who own the fourth-worst odds in the National League to appear in the World Series.

National League East Title

From the above, one can deduce the predicted order of finishing in the National League East based off the odds is as follows: Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and then the lowly Nationals.

Specifically, the Braves own implied probability of 69.70% to win the National League East for the seventh-straight season. The Phillies have the next best odds at an implied probability of 25% with the Mets trailing them at 11.76%. Miami (+2500) and Washington (+10000) are the real long shots to take home a division crown.

The Braves have the second-best odds league-wide to take home their respective division. The only team with a better chance to win their division is the Dodgers in the National League West at an implied probability of 77.78%.

Player Awards

Starting with National League most valuable player, there are two Mets that appear on the list first with the same odds. Both Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor currently own +2500 odds to capture the National League MVP award. They check in tied with the 10th-best odds. You can also find Brandon Nimmo on the list with the 21st-best odds.

The current favorite to win National League MVP is Ronald Acuña Jr. with National League newcomer Shohei Ohtani owning the fourth-best odds to capture the award.

As for the Cy Young, Kodai Senga has the best odds of any Mets’ pitchers at +1600, this is tied for the seventh-best odds. Spencer Strider comfortably owns the National League’s top odds at +550 while former Met Zack Wheeler trails him in second with +850 odds.

Player Statistical Leaders

The major-league home run race features Aaron Judge as strongly favored compared to his peers with +380 odds (second-best odds are Matt Olson at +750). However, Pete Alonso checks in with the fourth-best odds to lead the majors in long balls with +850 odds. Specifically, Alonso has an over/under of 43.5 home runs. So, the market currently believes Alonso will land on 43 long balls in 2023. Francisco Álvarez is also featured on the potential home run leaders list and is tied with the 41st-best odds.

As for pitchers, the current favorite to lead the majors in strikeouts in 2024 is Spencer Strider (+180). He is a heavy favorite when compared to other pitchers as Kevin Gausman owns the second-best odds all the way at +1000. Mets’ ace Kodai Senga checks in at sixth on the list with +2000 odds (bet $100 to win $2,000).

Another pitching category where a Met is prominently featured is save leaders. Edwin Díaz currently possesses the second-best odds at +800 to lead the majors in saves (tied with current free agent Josh Hader). Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians edges Díaz’s chances with a league-tops +600 odds.

Another interesting special player bet featuring a member of the Mets is Starling Marte holding the 11th-best odds to lead the major leagues in stolen bases. Further, Brandon Nimmo (+10000) has the 30th-best odds to lead the majors in hits and former National League batting champion Jeff McNeil (+20000; bet $100 to win $20,000) owns the league’s 45th-best odds in that same category.