Mike Clevinger
Position: SP Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 33 (12/21/1990)
Traditional Stats: 24 G, 9-9, 3.77 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 131.1 IP, 110 SO
Advanced Stats: 2.2 fWAR, 4.28 FIP, 4.13 xERA, 20.0 SO%, 7.3 BB%
Rundown
The 33-year-old Florida native is now roughly four years removed from a terrific run as a part of a young stable of strong Cleveland Indians’ starting pitchers. From 2016 through 2020, Mike Clevinger posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP with Cleveland. However, he has yet to regain that form as he is still trying to work his way fully back from the Tommy John surgery he had in November of 2020.
After the surgery, Clevinger finally returned in 2022, tossing 114 1/3 innings with the San Diego Padres. He struggled, posting a 4.33 ERA and 87 ERA+. The underlying metrics were ugly, as both his breaking and offspeed pitches had run values below the league’s 20th percentile. His xERA, xBA, K%, chase rate, and whiff rate all ranked below the league’s 40th percentile. However, last season, Clevinger took a step forward, throwing 131 1/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox, posting a strong 3.77 ERA.
In 2023, Clevinger improved mightily across the board. His solid 3.77 ERA and 110 ERA+ indicates that he is still likely an effective bottom-of-the-rotation starter. Additionally, the increases in basically every single underlying metric further indicates there is likely a higher ceiling that can be reached as he continues to work his way back from his debilitating injury.
Specifically, in 2023, he posted an xERA and an xBA in the league’s 52nd and 53rd percentiles, respectively. He also posted run values of the three main pitch types – fastball, breaking, and offspeed – above the league’s 65th percentile. The big right-handed pitcher did a good job limiting walks (65th percentile), avoiding opponent’s barrels (63rd percentile), and avoiding hard contact (72nd percentile hard hit rate). He had a strong season as it compares to a projectable No. 4 of 5 starter
Clevinger is certainly a pitcher that projects to be able to serve a valuable role in any teams rotation 2024. This especially if he continues to get better post-surgery and the fact he is not yet 35 years old.
Note, Clevinger had been under investigation after being accused of domestic abuse by the mother of one of his children. However, the league announced in March of 2023 that he would not face discipline under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Clevinger voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the treatment boards that cover domestic violence and drugs of abuse and also agreed to comply with any recommendations those boards make, according to the report.
Contract
According to Fangraph‘s crowd-sourced projections, Clevinger is being forecasted to net a two-year deal worth $12 million annually. For comparison sake, other pitchers who project to pitch in a similar role as Clevinger this year have already received the following deals:
- 34-year-old Seth Lugo: Two-years, $26 million
- 32-year-old Michael Wacha: Three-years, $39 million
- 36-year-old Kenta Maeda: Two-years, $24 million
- 33-year-old Nick Martinez: Two-years, $18 million
A two-year deal, with potentially an opt-out or team option, worth around $10-to-$14 million makes the most sense. This would allow both for a team to get solid value for a No. 4 starter and Clevinger to cash in while he continues to try to re-establish himself post-Tommy John surgery.
Recommendation
The starting pitcher market is quickly dwindling down. Of the 35 starting pitchers originally on the market who Fangraphs project to post at least 1.0 WAR next season, 18 of them have already agreed to terms. The options are getting limited.
As it currently projects, the Mets’ starting rotation looks as such:
The Mets also has Joey Lucchesi and José Butto as depth. However, as it currently stands, it is a group that desperately needs at least one-or-two more additions.
Clevinger is not a flashy name, however, he would plug the bottom of the rotation much better than the likes of either Houser or Megill. He also comfortably outperformed Severino, who is also trying to work his way back from injury. Of course, if it does not work out, and the Mets find themselves selling once again at the deadline, they can always move Clevinger, who projects as a short-term deal candidate, around at the trade deadline.
With all that being said, Clevinger would be an efficient add to a rotation that desperately needs one.
