The Argument Against The Mets Trading Away Carlos Carrasco

Recent reports have indicated that the New York Mets are open to trading Carlos Carrasco. This certainly would pose a new question mark surrounding the Mets’ rotation. However, if the team are really all-in on the 2023 season, then they should absolutely not trade the veteran starter.

It has been a wild off-season for the Mets. During a winter that has seen owner Steve Cohen really flex his financial might, the front office have worked hard to rebuild the rotation following the departures of Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. Replacing them will be three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, the experienced José Quintana, and Japanese sensation Kodai Senga.

There is an argument to be made that the Mets will have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball in 2023. Verlander is the perfect replacement for deGrom and he gives this team the best chance to win right now, Max Scherzer is an elite number one or number two starter, Quintana is a nice middle-of-the-order pitcher, and Senga’s upside is tantalizing. In addition, Carrasco’s potential role in the rotation shouldn’t be understated either.

Carrasco is coming off a decent 2022 campaign in which he went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.329 WHIP, 152 strikeouts and just 41 walks in 152 innings pitched. Yes, some of his numbers against teams over .500 were not great, but he was largely consistent and was able to stay available when the likes of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer were not. He showed tremendous character in bouncing back from a rough first year in Queens and those intangibles count for a lot inside the clubhouse.

With an average annual salary of $14 million in 2023 (though really $11 million when his $3-million buy out is considered), Carrasco represents very good value and you would struggle to find an experienced and accomplished pitcher for that amount on the open market. A total of $11 million for a fourth or fifth starter is not a large figure at all.

Plus, on the same note, given his team-friendly deal, it isn’t like Cohen and his never-ending wealth needs to trade Carrasco in order to shed some salary and put a stop to what has been a wild spending spree this off-season. After all, Cohen has made it clear he will spend and do whatever it takes to help this team win. Therefore, trading Carrasco would be purely a baseball decision.

That wouldn’t make a lot of sense from just a pure baseball perspective for a number of reasons. As already mentioned, Carrasco was very good in 2022 and he eat a lot of innings too. Granted, the 152 innings racked up last year was the first time since the 2018 season that the right-handed pitcher had surpassed the 100-inning mark. However, Carrasco projects to be the number four or number-five starter and he should be highly effective in either role if he can remain healthy. He started more games than Verlander and Scherzer in 2022, and he’s just a trustworthy arm that would act as a rare luxury at the back-end of the rotation.

There’s also the wild card factor at play with Senga. The Japanese star pitched just once a week back in the NPB and no one knows how quick it will take him to settle in a new country and translate his talents from back home over to the majors. If it proves to be a rough transition in the beginning, then having Carrasco would act as somewhat of a safety net in that the veteran could slot into the number-three spot in the rotation and take some of the pressure off of Senga until he finds his feet. He can also spell Verlander or Scherzer if they need extra rest. That’s the kind of options at manager Buck Showalter‘s disposal with Carrasco on the roster.

Then there’s the depth issue. Did the Mets not learn anything from last year? With deGrom missing for a large part of the year, Scherzer missing time, and the fact that 11 pitchers made one or more starts in 2022, the old adage rung true that you can never, ever have enough pitching. Trading away pitching should always be questioned and then questioned again, especially when the potential trade involves a player of Carrasco’s experience and importance.

It isn’t like there’s a boatload of depth after the starting five. Tylor Megill has displayed his upside in flashes but he went to the injured list twice in 2022 with biceps and then shoulder injuries. David Peterson showed flashes last year as well, but struggled mightily with control issues at times, and Joey Lucchesi didn’t pitch in the majors in 2022 after Tommy John surgery. To compound matters further, the pitching depth after that trio is razor, razor thin.

Bottom-line, outside of Peterson, you cannot rely on any other current Mets to lock down the fifth spot in the rotation. The Mets had to turn to two starters who were not ready in Jose Butto and Thomas Szapucki in 2022, and the results were not pretty. If that happens even a few times next year, that could have huge implications in the race for the National League East.

As a result, it seems somewhat counter-productive to trade away a proven starter you know you can trust just to make room for two starters who have yet to prove that they can be trusted fully as starters in the major leagues. When you are all in to win as much as the Mets are in 2023, you need proven commodities at every single position and Carrasco is just that as a reliable and solid back-of-the-rotation starter.