The Mets Have A Chance To Own Best Rotation In Baseball

After a blockbuster offseason in which owner Steve Cohen flexed his financial might, the New York Mets will enter the 2023 season with a chance to own the best starting rotation in all of baseball.

In recent years, the Mets have seen their success come on the back of their pitching. We saw it in 2015 during their run to the World Series with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey at the top of the rotation. It happened again in 2022 with a group headlined by deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt that finished in the top-five for staff ERA, fWAR and FIP.

This offseason brought upon a changing of the guard for the team’s rotation, as deGrom, Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all left in free agency, but the Mets acted quickly to find suitable replacements in Justin Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. As a result, they have once again put themselves into a position where they can lean on their starters on any given night, and it may all come together to give the Mets the best rotation in baseball in 2023.

Replacing deGrom was always going to be an impossible task, considering both the legacy he created in New York and his reputation as being the game’s best pitcher. However, they did the best they could by signing Verlander, who is coming off a Cy Young-winning season where he registered a 1.75 ERA and 6.1 fWAR in 28 starts on the way to a World Series victory with the Houston Astros. Most of the skepticism surrounding Verlander’s potential production as a Met centers around his age (39) and his recent Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for most of 2020 and all of 2021. But, there are reasons to believe neither will hamper him in the near future.

Verlander has been one of the most durable pitchers in the league since he debuted in 2005, as he made less than 30 starts just once from 2006 to 2019, and his recovery from Tommy John surgery has been rather smooth. He has also continued to sustain his velocity over time and has graded out well analytically as his career has reached its latter stages, and there is no indication that he’s going to slow down over the next few seasons. His workhorse mentality and ability to consistently perform at such a high level should excite Mets fans, and he should be considered as one of the game’s best starters heading into next season.

Joining Verlander at the top of the rotation is his former Tigers teammate in Scherzer, who enjoyed a successful first season in Queens by putting up a 2.29 ERA, 2.62 FIP and 4.4 fWAR in 23 starts. Much like Verlander, Scherzer has exhibited the ability to be a workhorse and eat innings all while remaining utterly dominant. Outside of 2022, the only full season in which he made less than 30 starts since 2009 was in 2019, and he’s done so all while winning three Cy Young Awards and making eight All-Star teams.

Even at 38 years old, he continues to possess elite stuff and put up well above-average strikeout numbers while limiting walks and producing an overall impressive analytical resume. While it’s unknown who’s going to take the ace spot in the rotation, either Verlander or Scherzer would likely profile as the best No. 2 starter in baseball, and the two veterans should continue to find immense success at their ages.

The rest of the rotation is rounded out by Quintana, Senga and Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco slotted in as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets in 2022 after a rough first impression the year before and responded by producing a 2.4 fWAR and a 3.97 ERA over 29 starts. While his expected stats against weren’t positive, Carrasco still showed the ability to get hitters to chase and generate swings and misses all while displaying good command. There have been trade rumors swirling around him recently but, should Carrasco remain a Met, he profiles as an above-average back-end starter that can reasonably be relied upon.

Quintana’s career seemed to be on a downward swing following a season-ending thumb injury in 2020 that limited him to 4 appearances, as well as a 2021 season that resulted in a 6.43 ERA over 29 games with the Angels and Giants. In 2022 though, he looked eerily similar to the version of himself that we saw as a young ace on the Chicago White Sox in the mid-2010s, as he made 32 starts and put up a 2.93 ERA and 4.0 fWAR with the Pirates and Cardinals.

While Quintana is never going to blow anyone away with velocity or plus-stuff, he knows how to effectively pitch to contact and excels at limiting any sort of hard contact, especially the home run ball. In fact, his 0.43 HR/9 rate was the lowest among qualified starters in the league, and his ability to utilize his four-seam fastball as an elite pitch was a big reason why. His curveball also became an important part of his arsenal in 2022, as it recorded a run value of -10 and slugging percentage against of .274 according to Baseball Savant, which was a revelation considering he had struggled to harness it in years prior. Overall, Quintana’s pedigree and prior success coupled with the improvements he made in 2022 make him a fantastic middle-of-the-rotation arm.

Senga is the true wild card of the group, as it’s tough to truly gauge his impact and potential production as a rookie in 2022. Coming over from Nippon Professional Baseball where he carved out an impressive career with a 2.59 ERA over 11 seasons, Senga’s range of outcomes is expansive. There have been reports that he has touched 102 MPH with his fastball, and his “Ghost Fork” secondary pitch has a chance to be devastating. He could ride his electric stuff and high-end velocity all the way to a standout season and quickly become another ace in the Mets rotation, or his control issues and seeming lack of a dependable third pitch could result in struggles and force him into the bullpen. There’s no denying his sky-high potential, and he is a perfect fit as somewhat of a lottery ticket that brings a high-risk, high-reward arm into a rotation that has an extraordinarily high floor. That makes signing Senga a worthwhile gamble for the Mets.

With the Mets rotation being set for the time being, it’s hard to argue against it being one of the best in the league. They have a pair of veteran aces and future Hall of Famers that continue to perform at the highest level to go with a pair of veteran arms in the middle of the rotation that have been consistent throughout their careers and have been among the best in the league at filling their current roles.

Then, when you factor in Senga and the potential that he has, it’s hard not to get excited about the things this group of starters can accomplish in 2023. The added depth in the form of David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also gives the team options and the ability to become creative down the line, which hasn’t always been a luxury the Mets have been afforded. Considering all of that, there simply aren’t many teams that can say they have a rotation that can rival what the Mets are going to put out every night next year.