Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 35 (11/17/1989)

2025 Traditional Stats: 19 G (19 starts), 113 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 7-5, 99 K, 33 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 139 ERA+, 22% K%, 7.3% BB%, 4.56 xERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 1.2 fWAR, 2.8 bWAR

Contract Status: $15 million player option for 2026

Rundown

For much of his time in New York, Seth Lugo made a living as a high-leverage reliever. He struck out as many as 104 batters in a season and even got occasional reps as the team’s closer. However, after the 2022 season, Lugo set out to become a starting pitcher like he was when he first debuted. He signed a two-year deal with a player option with the Padres, and after posting a solid season over 26 starts, he opted out and inked a three-year contract with the Royals.

Since joining Kansas City, Lugo has been one of the more effective pitchers in baseball. He made his first All-Star Game in 2024, finishing second in Cy Young voting with a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts over a career-high 206 2/3 innings. In 2025, he got off to a decent start to the season, but has posted a 2.38 ERA in 53 innings since June 6. Lugo currently ranks 10th in the AL in ERA and opponents’ batting average, and ninth in WHIP.

On the surface, Lugo is keeping pace with his magnificent 2024 season. However, his underlying metrics seem to indicate he may be due for regression. He has a FIP of 4.28, an xERA of 4.56, and an xFIP of 4.06. His 22% strikeout rate is slightly higher than his 2024 mark, but his walk rate has increased from 5.7% to 7.3%, the highest it’s been since 2021. Furthermore, his 45.7% hard-hit rate and 90.5 mph average-exit velocity are the highest marks of his career. His ground-ball rate has fallen to a career-low 38.7%, while his 28.3% fly-ball rate is the second-highest of his career, only behind his 2019 season. His opponents’ .245 BABiP is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. Lugo gave up just 16 homers in 2024, but he’s already served up 17 long balls in 2025. However, 12 of those home runs have come with no one on base. Lugo has an 85.3% strand rate, and hitters are batting just .203 with one homer against him with runners in scoring position.

Part of the reason Lugo is still effective is his deep arsenal — he’s thrown 10 different pitches at least 10 times this season. His velocity is down across the board, but his sinker and slider have both shown improvement. While his sinker doesn’t generate whiffs at a high rate (only 13.8%), it has registered just a 36.5% hard-hit rate, and he’s allowed just two home runs on the pitch. His slider, which he uses less frequently, has a whiff rate of 30.2% and hitters are just 4-for-26 with two extra-base hits against it. Six of the home runs Lugo has allowed have come against his four-seam fastball, which opponents have tagged for a 50% hard-hit rate and .529 xSLG, and opponents have a hard-hit rate of 48.3% against his curveball.

While he might have sacrificed the mid-to-high 90s fastball he had in Flushing, Lugo has transformed into a workhorse. He has pitched at least six innings in 13 of his 19 starts this season, working into the seventh inning six times. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in 16 of his starts as well. In 2024, Lugo threw at least six innings 25 times, completing seven innings on 13 occasions. So far in 2025, Mets starters rank 24th in the majors in innings pitched and are averaging just over five innings per start.

Package

Despite his strong production over the last two seasons, Lugo might not cost as much as other arms on the market. He’s in his age-35 season and seems likely to decline his $15 million player option for 2026, making him a rental.

Mets Receive

• Seth Lugo

Royals Receive

• RHP Jack Wenninger (No. 11 prospect per Mike Mayer)
• OF Eli Serrano III (No. 12 prospect per Mike Mayer)

Recommendation

The Mets have just one starting pitcher–David Peterson–who has averaged six innings per start in 2025. Lugo can provide the team with a veteran arm that can go deep into games and likely won’t cost any of the team’s top prospects. This is a move the Mets should strongly consider to give the starting rotation some stability for the rest of the season.

The post Trade Profile: Seth Lugo, SP appeared first on Metsmerized.

With a slew of needs, the New York Mets are expected to be major buyers. As things stand right now, the Mets figure to be one of the busiest teams at the deadline.

Therefore, now felt the perfect time to rank all of this team’s needs in order of importance. Granted, all of the holes the Mets have to fill by the Trade Deadline are important, but some are more urgent than others.

To that end, let’s dive right in…

Ranking The Mets’ Trade Deadline Needs

Jul 8, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller (23) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

1. A FRONTLINE STARTER

The Mets currently have the fourth-best team ERA in baseball (3.56). The starting rotation is also getting a lot healthier with Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas all back. However, there are still a lot of question marks over this current group. Health will always be the big variable, obviously. It remains to be seen how reliable Montas can be, and Clay Holmes has already reached a career-high in innings pitched, meaning he will need to be managed incredibly carefully down the stretch.

Therefore, if the Mets want to go on a deep postseason run, I think they will need to add a top-of-the-market frontline starter. Minnesota’s Joe Ryan, who has pitched to a 2.72 ERA this year, would be a home run option if available. Pirates RHP Mitch Keller is a workhorse who can go deep in games. He has logged 119 innings this season. Pending free agent Seth Lugo, who is 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA for the Royals, is another enticing option. All in all, the Mets need to add another top arm to the rotation in order to become a true contender.

2. CENTER FIELD PRODUCTION

There has been little production from the bottom of the lineup in 2025. The abyss out in center field has hardly helped that matter. Tyrone Taylor is a very fine defensive outfielder, but he’s been a net negative offensively. He has a 65 wRC+ on the year, while hitting just .213/.267/.313 with two home runs and a .580 OPS. Furthermore, a .374 OPS so far in July shows that Taylor’s bat isn’t trending in the right direction. Therefore, the Mets need to make a big move in order to correct what has been a deep, fatal flaw to this point.

Now, with that said, the potential options aren’t perfect. Twins outfielder Byron Buxton is a pipe dream, given that it seems he isn’t going anywhere. White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. has long been linked to New York, but he’s hitting just .190/.275/.325 in 2025. Orioles veteran Cedric Mullins could be intriguing given his speed, but he’s also having a down year. Now, Jarren Duran would be the home run option, but I doubt the Red Sox would want to sell, given they’ve just ripped off 10 straight wins. Back to Mullins, the one-time All-Star does have 13 homers and 41 RBIs this year. He would be a clear upgrade on Taylor offensively. New York can’t continue to get zero production from center field if the goal is to go deep in October.

Quinn Harris/USA TODAY Sports

3. HIGH LEVERAGE RELIEVER

The Mets have been in need of a lefty reliever ever since A.J. Minter was lost for the year. That will no doubt continue to be a priority at the Trade Deadline. However, it has to be said that this team just needs a high-leverage setup man, period. Lefty or righty, the front office needs to find someone who can help to support Edwin Díaz. Díaz has been outstanding, but he will need help. Brooks Raley‘s return will be a boost, but the Mets arguably need another high-end lefty reliever anyway. In all, the front office should probably be looking to add two swing-or-miss arms that can come up clutch in later innings. The good news, and why we have this need at No. 3, is the fact that relievers tend to be available in large bunches at the deadline. That’s a positive for the Mets.

4. ANOTHER BAT

The Mets are currently getting a .650 OPS from the catcher, center field, second base, and third base positions in 2025. There is no way the front office will be able to improve all four positions externally. Nor will they need to. Francisco Alvarez has looked good in Triple-A, and I’m still convinced that Mark Vientos will explode at some point down the stretch. That leaves center field, which we covered above. But, you can also make a compelling argument that the Mets need another bat to help solidify the bottom of that lineup, which has been ice cold.

Furthermore, Jesse Winker has been unable to stay healthy, so who knows what you will get out of him the rest of the way. In order to get past the Dodgers in the National League, this lineup will need everyone to contribute. It won’t be able to afford passengers. Therefore, another bat – and it doesn’t need to be a huge name if center field gets addressed – would be hugely beneficial. It would help to deepen and lengthen this lineup. How about a player in the ilk of Adolis Garcia? His power would be a perfect fit for the bottom of the lineup, and he could get some reps at DH too.

The post Ranking The Mets’ Trade Deadline Needs appeared first on Metsmerized.

Holmes had a solid year from the bullpen in 2024, tallying a 3-5 record with a 3.14 ERA. His FIP was an outstanding 3.02. He didn’t walk a lot of batters, keeping his BB/9 down to a 3.14 and he tallied a lot of strikeouts as illustrated by a 9.71 K/9.

Below is a statistical analysis for Holmes’s 2024 season out of the bullpen. 

Holmes’s go-to pitch was his sinker which he threw 56.3% of the time with an average velocity of 96.6 mph. His control of this pitch was impeccable. He earned a 21.6% called strike rate for this pitch, meaning this pitch landed in the strike zone and batters did not swing. Another piece of information to note is the sinker’s effectiveness at inducing ground balls, with an average launch angle of -1.2 degrees. Holmes ground-ball rate, overall, was in the league’s 100th percentile last year. This pitch was almost automatic in keeping the ball on the ground. Look for Holmes to rely heavily on his sinker when in a jam with runners on this season.  

Holmes’s off-speed pitches were effective as well. He almost split the amount of times he used his tight slider compared to his sweeper. The tight slider was a very effective pitch. It resulted in a 17.8% swing-and-miss rate, as well as a 20.8% called strike rate. This means that Holmes had great control of this pitch by placing it in the zone as well as fooling batters by making them chase this pitch and not allowing batters to make contact. His sweeper had the highest spin rate as well as the best average exit velocity against, meaning that batters were not making great contact against this pitch.  

The most obvious question mark regarding Holmes is, “Will he be able to handle the volume of innings pitched by a starter? ” It’s been seven years since his last start, and as he nears age-32, will his body allow him to take this role? Looking optimistically, there have been many relievers that have made the transition to starter, as mentioned earlier Seth Lugo, John Smoltz, Adam Wainwright, and Johan Santana, to name a few.  This is a low-floor, high-ceiling situation.

President of baseball operations, David Stearns, has been known for pulling the right strings to get the most out of pitchers, and it will be interesting to see how this Holmes move will pan out at the back end of this rotation for the 2025 season. It was a great first step on Saturday as Holmes went three perfect innings with three strikeouts.

The post 2025 Mets Pitching Preview: Clay Holmes appeared first on Metsmerized.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

While Yamamoto is the big fish, the Mets have made virtually no other moves outside some low-level bullpen additions and Luis Severino on a one-year deal. Joey Wendle hardly qualifies as a move.

Meanwhile, the Mets still have multiple needs. Even if they consider third base set with their current depth (which is less certain due to Ronny Mauricio‘s ACL tear), they still have needs in the corner outfield, at designated hitter, and potentially at second base. They also need a reliable eighth-inning man and a minimum of one more starter besides Yamamoto, even if they were to acquire him.

Essentially, the Mets seem to be holding up their entire offseason to see what happens with the Japanese pitcher. The problem is that it may make him less likely to come.

As much money as Steve Cohen can put on the table for Yamamoto, winning means something to most players. If the money is pretty close, why would Yamamoto choose the Mets over the Dodgers or even the Yankees? Can the Mets honestly say that they plan on competing this season if they have not added any other players by the time he is ready to make his decision?

Of course, some posit that Yamamoto will simply follow the money, which gives Cohen an immediate edge. He can (and seemingly will) blow any offer out of the water. The Mets can also guarantee that Yamamoto will be the featured superstar, something he will not have with the Yankees or Dodgers.

Still, even with Yamamoto, this Mets club presents as a wild card team at best. Some of the Mets’ possible free-agent and trade targets, including Seth Lugo, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Jung-Hoo Lee, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tyler Glasnow, have already gone elsewhere. The Mets’ needs are going nowhere. If they wait to see where Yamamoto winds up, they’ll be behind the eight-ball.

Much of the market has yet to heat up, likely waiting for Yamamoto as it did for Ohtani. Still, even if some players sign, those are players the Mets cannot acquire. Gurriel might have been a good fit in New York. The Mets reportedly had some interest in Lugo, Rodriguez, Glasnow, and Lee. Even if the pitching market is tied up by Yamamoto, the team should not wait to acquire at least one more power bat.

Perhaps there is a trade market that will develop only after Yamamoto signs. Or maybe the Mets plan to stick with the pitching market and go to the bargain basement in the hitting department. Or maybe some of the hitters are sticking around to see what Yamamoto gets, too.

The post Opinion: Mets Should Not Wait for Yamamoto to Bolster Team appeared first on Metsmerized.

The Kansas City Royals, who already signed former Met Seth Lugo to a 3-year, $45 million deal, inked veterans Michael Wacha and Hunter Renfroe to multi-year deals today.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that Renfroe signed a two-year, $13 million deal, with an opt-out after the first season. The first year of the deal with be worth $5.5 million, and the second year $7.5 million.

Renfroe will now be heading to his seventh team in six years. After spending parts of the first four years of his career with the San Diego Padres, Renfroe had stops with the Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels and Cincinnati Reds before getting his new deal 2-year deal with Kansas City. However, with the opt-out in the contract, he could still find his way to a different team in 2025.

Renfroe, who will be 32 in January, had the worst season of his career in which he played at least 100 games in 2023. In 504 plate appearances with the Angels, he hit .242/.304/.434 with 19 home runs before being placed on waivers near the end of August as part of a salary dump for Los Angeles. He was claimed by the Reds but hit just .128 over 14 games before being released. On the season, he had a -0.6 bWAR and 0.6 fWAR over 140 games, mainly as a right fielder.

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

A little under an hour later, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Royals were adding Wacha on a two-year, $32 million deal. Like Renfroe, this deal also comes with an opt-out after the first season.

For Wacha, this becomes his sixth team in six seasons after spending the first seven years of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. He spent the shortened 2020 season with the Mets and posted a career-worst 6.62 ERA over 34 innings before moving on to the Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres.

Wacha has had a lot of success over the past two seasons, posting a 3.32 ERA with Boston in 2022 and a 3.22 ERA with San Diego in 2023. However, he made just 47 starts in those two seasons and averaged about 130 innings. Now 32, he will turn 33 on July 1.

The post Royals Sign RHP Michael Wacha, OF Hunter Renfroe appeared first on Metsmerized.

According to Anne Rogers of MLB dot com, the Kansas City Royals are finalizing a deal with right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports it’s a three-year deal worth $45 million.

The Mets, Braves, and Red Sox were among the teams that showed interest in the starter.

Original Post – Dec. 12 at 12:46 PM

As the offseason continues, the Mets are continuing to watch the market for starting pitchers. One potential arm they have their eyes on could potentially lead to a New York reunion for a former Mets’ starter.

Per MMO‘s Michael Mayer, the Mets have interest in bringing former Met Seth Lugo back to New York.

The Mets drafted Lugo in the 34^th round of the 2011 MLB draft and he spent the next 11 years with the organization—seven of which he spent at the major league level. Once he became a free agent, he signed a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres that also included a player option for 2024, which he did not pick up.

During his seven seasons with the Mets, Lugo was 32-24 with a 3.48 ERA over 275 appearances. Lugo came to the majors as a starter, but the Mets utilized him as an effective reliever starting 2018. He made just 12 starts over his final five seasons with the Mets.

Lugo, though, consistently said he wanted to be a starter. He found a team in the Padres who’d pay him to be one. Over the course of the 2023 season, the 34-year old went 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 26 starts and 146.1 innings for the Padres.

Now, with a new regime and a need for starting pitching, Lugo coming back to the Mets would make sense. He is getting quite a bit of interested as a free market, too. Per Mayer, the Braves, Royals, and Red Sox are all showing interest in Lugo, and the Padres have expressed interest in bringing the righty back as well. Some reports show that the Giants are interested in Lugo as well.

In addition to Lugo, the Mets are seen as a lead contender for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. , and they’ve also been connected to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. It would make sense, especially with David Peterson injured, for the Mets to sign more quality starters this offseason—something David Stearns has acknowledged is part of the offseason plan.

Read our free agent profile of Seth Lugo here.

The post Report: Royals Sign Seth Lugo to Three-Year Deal appeared first on Metsmerized.

The Mets started to make their initial free agency signings Wednesday as they added depth to both the starting rotation and the infield. They started the day by bringing in a player who spent his first eight season in the big leagues just a borough over, as they signed former Yankee Luis Severino to a one-year deal. The former Yankee is expected to be more of a middle-to-backend  piece for the Mets rotation as they continue to fill out their staff, but has some potential upside if he can rebound from a poor 2023 season. For a more in-depth look into the signing, click here!

Next, the Mets added some infield depth as they agreed to a one-year deal with former Marlins utility infielder Joey Wendle. Wendle, who can play many spots around the diamond, has garnered the reputation of being a reliable glove throughout his career. Despite having career lows in almost every offensive category last season, Wendle has shown the ability to be a good contact hitter when he is right and will hopefully fill the role that recently released Luis Guillorme was in. For a closer look into the Mets signing of Joey Wendle, click here!

Luis Severino. Photo credits USA Today

Latest Mets News

The Mets are reportedly going “full bore” in trying to land Japanese pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shōta Imanaga, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that the Mets are “not messing around” and might not have it in them to completely fold to a year or two turn around. 

Luis Severino seems to be just the beginning of the Mets pitching signings as they are reportedly interested in former Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodríguez, per Mike Mayer of Metsmerized Online. To learn more about the report, click here!

Latest MLB News

Former Minnesota Twins reliever Emilio Pagán signed with the Cincinnati Reds, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The two-year, $16 million deal (the second year is a player option) makes Pagán the highest-paid player on the Reds. For more on the signing, click here!

The Reliever of the Year Awards were announced for both leagues Wednesday night as Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers won in the National League and Félix Bautista of the Baltimore Orioles won in the American League. 

Nelson Cruz has found himself a new job as he is joining the Los Angeles Dodgers organization as an advisor, per Tenchy Rodriguez of Z Digital. The recently retired slugger stays in baseball after playing for 19 seasons and being the Dominican Republic’s general manager for their past World Baseball Classic run. 

Trade talks circulating around Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease have started to heat up in the last 48 hours according to a report by Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Morosi noted that some sources believe a deal could be done prior to the start of the winter meetings and that the Atlanta Braves are among the finalists. For more information on Cease, check out our trade profile on him!

Ryan Flaherty is expected to be named the Chicago Cubs’ new bench coach, per Brett Ghiroli of The Athletic. Flaherty was in the mix for the Padres head managing spot before they chose Mike Shildt, so he will now move to Chicago to join new manager Craig Counsell‘s staff in the same role he was in with San Diego. 

The Kansas City Royals agreed to a one-year, $2 million deal with utilityman Garrett Hampson, per Robert Murray of FanSided.com. Hampson played in 98 games for the Marlins last season after spending five years in Colorado and has proven to be a plus defender in several positions. 

Former Mets and Padres pitcher Seth Lugo‘s market is heating up and the Dodgers are one of the teams interested, per Ari Alexander of KPRC2 of Houston. Alexander mentions how 2/3 of the league has shown interest in Lugo and that the Houston Astros are not one of those teams. 

Right-handed Reliever Penn Murfee and the Atlanta Braves came to an agreement on a major league deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. Since being waived by the Seattle Mariners, Murfee has been claimed and waived by the Mets and claimed and non-tendered by the Braves prior to agreeing to this deal. 

Bob Klapisch of the Newark Star-Ledger reported that any deal that would take place for San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto would be a one-year rental. He added that an MLB executive told him, “Scott Boras clients don’t do extensions.”

Veteran right-handed pitcher Jaime Barria agreed to a minor-league deal with the Cleveland Guardians, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Barria spent his first six seasons in the big leagues with the Los Angeles Angels before being granted free agency last month. 

The Major League Baseball Players Association elected two Minor League Association Player Representatives and two Alternate Association Player Representatives to serve two-year terms, per MLBPA. The elected Association Player Representatives are Cameron Junker of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Williams Simoneit of the Oakland Athletics; the alternate selections are A.J. Lewis of the Colorado Rockies and Jake Walters of the Miami Marlins. 

Liam Hendriks was selected as the recipient of the 2023 Tony Conigliaro Award, per Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. This award is given out by the Red Sox to the “major leaguer who has overcome adversity through the attributes of spirit, determination, and courage that were trademarks of Tony C.”

Latest on MMO

Michael Mayer previewed the next matchup in Mets Madness as the 1973 Mets take on the 2007 Mets. 

Check out the update on Juan Soto’s trade situation between the Padres and Yankees. 

On This Date in Mets History

2012: David Wright signs an eight-year, $138-million extension with the Mets, which was the highest paying deal in team history at the time. 

2007: The Mets trade Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals and receive Brian Schneider and Ryan Church in return. 

Birthdays: DJ Stewart (30), Matt Lawton (52), Juan Berenguer (69), Craig Swan (73)

The post Morning Briefing: Mets Make First Major Offseason Additions appeared first on Metsmerized.

ALLISON WAXMAN

Justin Turner might be the one who got away for the Mets. He might have also been the one to kick off the current trend of “former-Met-turned-Met-killer” that Mets fans love to joke about. What hurt him in the end was he never had a set position, and that cost him playing time. Once the non-tender deadline came around in December 2013, the Mets made the fateful choice not to offer Turner a contract. He wasn’t a bad player, far from it. In his four-year Mets career, he owned a .265/.326/.370/.696 line. The Mets had to choose what to do, and they chose poorly.

He became a two-time All-Star, an NLCS MVP, a Roberto Clemente Award Winner and a World Series Champion with the Dodgers. Turner became their everyday third baseman and played elsewhere in the field when the time called for it. Now is the time for the Mets to make things right and re-sign Turner. He can help mentor the likes of Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio, and I’m sure he has unfinished business to prove in Queens.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

PATRICK GLYNN

Of all the former Mets the team should try to bring back in free agency, it’s David Robertson. Yes, he pitched poorly in Miami, but it balanced out his results exceeding expected numbers when in New York. The team needs to rebuild the bullpen—again. Robertson could be a good piece to bring in on a one-year deal to do what he was supposed to do last year: set up for Edwin Díaz.

Seth Lugo would be an interesting pick, but it seemed like he wanted out of New York. (Mostly because he wasn’t allowed to start.) Tommy Pham would be nice, too, as Starling Marte insurance. But who knows if he wants to come back after all of the venting he did to the media after he was traded.

The post MMO Crossfire: Which Former Met to Bring Back? appeared first on Metsmerized.

Seth Lugo. Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

There is no secret what the New York Mets and new president of baseball operations, David Stearns, main priority will be this offseason. Pitching, pitching, and some more pitching. Right now, the team only has two starters locked into their 2024 rotation; Kodai Senga and José Quintana. This leaves three spots to be filled, with only a couple, mediocre (Joey Lucchesi 5.48 xERA last season, Tylor Megill 5.89 xERA last season, and David Peterson is injured), in-house options available.

Let’s just say the recent report of the Mets being “all over” arguably the top free agent pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is true and the team is indeed able to land him. That would fulfill the top two spots in the rotation, Yamamoto and Senga, leaving the last three to figure out. Quintana surely cements one of those last roles, still leaving two up in the air.

Who would be some of the current pitchers on the market that would fill a bottom-three starter’s role well?

Note, the below are not flashy names, nor are they suppose to be. This list is meant to focus on the more under-the-radar names who can still be effective bottom of the rotation starters (No. 3 through 5 roles).

Kenta Maeda

The now 35-year-old is a very intriguing under-the-radar option. Kenta Maeda is now entering his eighth year in the big leagues boasting a solid 3.92 ERA over his career. After missing the 2021 season due to injury (Tommy John surgery), Maeda came back last season and tossed 104 1/3 innings across 20 starts.

In 2023, he posted a 4.23 ERA and allowed 94 hits to go along with only 28 walks. All his underlying metrics painted a prettier picture, as his xBA and xERA both ranked above the league’s 65th percentile at 3.77 and .231, respectively. Maeda did a good job not walking batters (78th percentile), inducing swings and misses (66th percentile whiff rate), and getting chases (76th percentile chase rate). He had himself a very, very strong season in return from his year-long injury.

Throughout his career, Maeda has always been effective. In each of his seven seasons, he has posted an xERA below 4.00 according to Baseball Savant. Last season, he still showed the ability to pitch very strong and would automatically be a huge boost to the Mets’ rotation in a No. 3 or 4 role. Consensus for a new contract appear to be in the two-year range worth between $12 and $18 million per season.

James Paxton

The new 35-year-old James Paxton has tried to recover to full health since 2019, and finally returned to the mound for 19 starts and 96 innings last season. On the surface, the numbers do not look extremely encouraging given the 4.50 ERA. However, his underlying numbers paint a picture of an effective No. 4 or No. 5 starter.

Paxton owned an xERA and xBA last season that sat in the 64th percentile and 68th percentile, respectively. His xERA of 3.82 was 0.68 less than his actual figure showing he was likely a victim of some poor luck or lackluster fielding. His xFIP of 3.98 further highlights that claim. The Canadien also ranked above the league’s 50th percentile in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. When reviewing the full body of work, and taking in account the underlying metrics there appears to still be an effective bottom of the rotation starter.

Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projected contract is only a one-year deal worth $8 million. With a deal like this, if Paxton is able to remain healthy and replicate similar numbers to 2022, he would be extremely valuable. Especially to a team like the Mets who desperately need to fill out the bottom part of the team’s rotation.

Domingo Germán. USA TODAY Sports

Domingo Germán

Former New York Yankees’ starter Domingo Germán had the definition of an up-and-down season in 2023. He threw the 24th perfect game in major-league history, but still ended the season with a subpar 4.56 ERA and 5-7 record. However, like Paxton, the 31-year-old’s underlying metrics paint a much better season than indicated on the surface.

Germán’s xERA and xFIP last season are both lower than his actual ERA and FIP figures, once again indicating some poor luck. He also featured two pitches, his breaking ball and offspeed, that had run values ranking better than the league’s 75th percentile. Lastly, Germán did a good job striking hitters out (chase rate and whiff rates above the league’s 78th percentile) and limiting walks (61st percentile walk rate). All these characteristics paint a picture of a serviceable bottom of the rotation starter.

Throughout his career, Germán has always put up effective No. 4 or No. 5 starter numbers, posting xERAs of 4.09, 3.78, and 4.33, respectively, over the past three seasons. He may not be the most flashy name, however, at the likely contract he will receive given he was just outright for assignment by the Yankees, versus the likely performance he will put forth, will likely garner strong value as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

Seth Lugo

The former New York Met was finally given a full season as a starter and performed decently. Seth Lugo made 26 starts tossing 146 1/3 innings posting a 3.57 ERA. Both his ERA+ and FIP came in at solid numbers, 115 and 3.83, respectively. It was a good first year as a full-time starter for the 33-year-old.

Interestingly enough, in the opposite direction of the three listed above, Lugo’s xERA of 4.48 signified he may have posted results a tad more deceiving than he deserved. However, the 4.48 mark is still a decent figure and Lugo got the actual performance worthy of a starter’s gig going forward.

Of course, it yet remains to be seen if the former 34th-round pick by the Mets in 2011 would welcome a return back to New York. If he did, contract projections vary in the two-to-three-year range between $12-to-$14 million. A deal that would line Lugo up as a decent No. 4 starter.

Mike Clevinger. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Clevinger

The 32-year-old Florida native is now three-to-four years removed from strong runs as a part of that young stable of really strong Cleveland Indians’ starters. However, he likely still possesses the ability to be an effective bottom of the rotation starter. Last season, Mike Clevinger threw 131 1/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox, posting a 3.77 ERA. This one year after 114 1/3 innings with the San Diego Padres in 2022 where he struggled posting a 4.33 ERA and 87 ERA+.

Last season, Clevinger’s solid 3.77 ERA and 110 ERA+ indicates there still is an effective starter there and shows that the lackluster 2021 season shouldn’t be the baseline. In 2022, he posted an xERA and an xBA in the league’s 52nd and 53rd percentiles, respectively. He also posted run values of the three main pitch types – fastball, breaking, and offspeed – above the leagues 65th percentile. The big right-handed pitcher did a good job limiting walks (65th percentile), avoiding opponent’s barrels (63rd percentile), and avoiding hard contact (72nd percentile hard hit rate).

The contract projections for the former Indian vary in the two-year range for $11-to-$13 million per season. This would be very solid for a No. 4 starter, especially if he is able to replicate the season he put forth last season.

Contract projections from Fangrpah’s crowd-sourced projections as well as MLB Trade Rumors‘ projections. 

The post Five Potentially Effective Bottom-Of-The-Rotation Free Agent Options appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: Starting Pitcher Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 11/07/1989 (33)

Traditional Stats: 26 GS, 8-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 140 K, 146.1 IP
Advanced Stats: 2.8 fWAR, 3.83 FIP, 4.48 xERA, 6.0 BB%, 23.2 K%

Rundown

It all began for Seth Lugo when the New York Mets selected him in the 34th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. The lottery ticket would toil for several years in the minor league system before making his major league debut in 2016, helping the Mets achieve a wild card berth. In fact, his impressive rookie campaign consisted of 64 innings between starting and relief appearances, in which he accumulated a 2.67 ERA.

This would earn Lugo a spot on the 2017 roster, where he would spend most of his time as a starting pitcher. Consequently, the increase in volume caused a decrease in his production. In 101 1/3 innings, Lugo struck out 85 batters and pitched to a lackluster 4.71 ERA.

Since the starting pitcher position proved to be arduous for Lugo, the Mets decided to transition him to a bullpen role for the 2018 season. This move worked tremendously for the Mets and Lugo, as he had outstanding numbers. In the same amount of innings as the season prior, Lugo struck out 103 batters this time with a significantly lower 2.66 ERA.

Lugo’s excellence as a relief pitcher would translate to the 2019 season, where he thrived as a late-inning option for the Mets. In 61 appearances, he had a 2.70 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 80 innings. He served as a key contributor to the Mets’ hot streak in August that season, as he was indomitable in a number of key innings late in games.

This would be the best of Lugo as a relief pitcher, as he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, with a 5.15 ERA in 16 games. He started in some of those games, mainly due to the lack of depth within the Mets’ rotation.

However, he was quickly jettisoned back to a relief pitcher role in the following season, where he started to regain some of his old form. He pitched to a 3.50 ERA in 46 1/3 innings with 55 strikeouts. Consequently, he put up similar figures in the 2022 season with a little more volume. In 65 innings, he struck out 69 batters while accumulating a 3.60 ERA.

Lugo’s contract expired following this season, and he decided to take his talents to the San Diego Padres in his first time as a free agent. After several long arbitration years, Lugo cashed in on a two-year $15 million contract, with the second year being a player option. He has since declined this player option, again making him a free agent.

While the Mets expressed interest in retaining him during his initial free agency, Lugo’s attraction to the Padres stemmed from their ability to give him a spot in their starting rotation. This was a point of contention with the Mets during his time in New York, as he was disgruntled about being thrown into the bullpen.

As many Mets fans know, Lugo’s repertoire most notably includes his curveball, which has plagued hitters for several years now. In fact, that pitch generated a whiff rate of 26.4 percent, with an average spin rate of 3240 rpm in 2023.

Contract

The gamble of signing a short-term deal paid off for Lugo, as he is now a free agent who has established himself as a reliable starting pitcher option.

He earned $7.5 million last season, but his new contract will almost certainly eclipse that figure. Since he is on the older side at 33 years of age, it’s unlikely he would get a long-term deal. MLB Trade Rumors has his deal pegged at three years, $42 million.

That said, the market for starting pitchers is entirely different than the relief pitcher market, meaning that Lugo’s newly established pedigree as a starting pitcher will pay great dividends for him in the open market. Every team needs starting pitching, and Lugo can provide an instant boost once the large dominoes in the market fall.

Recommendation

David Stearns has expressed an open mind when it comes to pursuing upgrades for the Mets, and it would be advisable to look into a reunion with Seth Lugo. While he would probably not want to return to his role as a relief pitcher, the Mets now can offer a spot in their rotation to the right-handed pitcher. With the recent news of David Peterson‘s hip injury that will sideline him for several months, the need for starting pitching depth has become magnified.

Lugo’s familiarity with the organization could be helpful in negotiating a contract, as he spent more than a decade here. While he was displeased with their inability to convert him back to a starter before leaving for San Diego, perhaps the Mets could rekindle their previous relationship by signing him to play that role.

The post Free Agent Profile: Seth Lugo, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized.