Dylan Cease

Position: SP

B/T: R/R

Age: 27 (12/28/1995)

2023 Traditional Stats: 33 GS, 177 IP, 7-9, 4.58 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, 214 SO, 79 BB

2023 Advanced Stats: 97 ERA+, 27.3% SO%, 10.1% BB%, 4.07 xERA, 3.72 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 3.7 fWAR, 2.4 bWAR

Rundown

Dylan Cease, a player who was once a top-100 prospect, has been a consistent piece of the Chicago White Sox’s rotation for the last four seasons. The right-hand starting pitcher made his big-league debut as a 23-year-old in 2019, making 14 starts that year.

Cease showed glimpses of greatness throughout his first few campaigns, and in 2021, he led the league with 32 starts. Cease was a part of a White Sox team that won 93 games, helping them win the American League Central for the first time since 2008. Cease did not pitch well in his only postseason appearance against the Houston Astors in the American League Division Series, allowing three earned runs in only 1 2/3 innings.

Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito were believed to be the team’s best-starting pitchers going forward, but it was Cease who stepped up as the ace of the rotation in 2022. The former sixth-round draft pick in 2014 had a phenomenal season, going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. If it weren’t for Justin Verlander, who returned from Tommy John surgery and posted a 1.75 ERA in 28 starts, Cease likely would have won the AL Cy Young.

Cease went into the 2023 season with the expectation to remain one of the best starters in the AL, but the year did not unfold that way. He went out and made 33 starts, but he went just 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings.

Opponents had much more success against Cease, owning a staggering .331 BABIP. Batters also had a 34.1% hard-hit rate against him, up from 25.7% in the season before. It should be mentioned that the White Sox had a difficult year, particularly with injuries. There is also optimism for Cease to bounce back in 2024. While he had a 4.58 ERA, Cease recorded a 3.72 FIP and maintained high strike-out totals.

Cease is not only great on the mound but dependable as well. He made 33 starts last season and has made 32 starts or more in three-straight seasons. That is difficult to find, especially when you consider that Cease is a hard-throwing starter (averaged 95.6 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2023).

He will turn 28 before next season, so he is entering what should be the prime of his career. The White Sox appear to be ready for a rebuild or some sort of retooling, which could lead to some of their most talented players being involved in trades. Now would be the perfect time to acquire Cease, and many teams will check in on his availability this winter.

Package

Cease is under team control for the next two seasons, so this is not a scenario where the Mets would be trading for a rental. That means that the White Sox will be looking for one, maybe two high-end prospects in addition to a player that is close to being MLB-ready.

The Mets have a few position players with unclear roles at the big-league level, so this would be an opportunity to move one of them. Chicago is also in a position where they have lost a lot of starting pitchers in recent years, so they’d like to acquire an arm in this deal.

Proposed Deal:

Mets receive: Dylan Cease

White Sox receive: Ronny Mauricio (Mets’s No. 4 prospect), Blade Tidwell (No. 10 prospect), and Justin Jarvis (No. 15 prospect)

Recommendation 

The Mets are in a position where they need to focus on adding quality starting pitching this offseason, either through a trade or free agency. New president of baseball operations, David Stearns, will certainly evaluate all of the team’s options, but given Cease’s age and the fact that he is under team control beyond 2024, the organization should strongly consider acquiring him.

He is not far removed from performing at an elite level with the White Sox, and the Mets would love to have someone with as much upside as him. The asking price will largely determine how deep the talks will go, but if White Sox general manager Chris Getz is reasonable, New York should really look into making this happen.

Cease has the stuff to be one of the more dominant starts in baseball. If the Mets are able to add him into the mix, their starting rotation will look far more complete in 2024.