Mets Will Prioritize Pitching This Offseason

Talking to the media for the first time at the GM Meetings in Arizona on Tuesday, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns didn’t hide the fact that the organization needs pitching at the major league level for 2024. “I don’t think it’s any secret that we are a little short on pitching at the moment. That would be a priority in this offseason.”

With this interview and the recent news that lefty David Peterson underwent surgery to repair a torn hip labrum and will be expected to miss six to seven months, let’s take a look at free agent starting pitchers the Mets can target, as well as three potential trade targets that may make sense to fill out their rotation.

Free Agent Targets

Shohei Ohtani (29) – Although Ohtani will miss the 2024 season as pitcher, he would still provide immediate value as a hitter. Ohtani had another strong season on the mound, notching a 3.14 ERA over 132 innings, spanning 23 starts. He struck out 167 batters, walking 55, all while still running a 1.06 WHIP due to his ability to prevent hits. Even if Ohtani returned in 2025 with diminished velocity and limited by innings, his value will be bolstered by his hitting. The potential to get a top-10 hitter and pitcher in the same player doesn’t happen. This wouldn’t be the 2024 fix for the rotation – but if Stearns and Mets owner Steve Cohen are looking to build for the long run, it would be hard to ignore this.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (25) – The most prized free agent not named Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his accomplishments have been mentioned ad nauseam. Yamamoto is 25 years old, coming off of a season that saw him go 17-6 with a 1.16 ERA, striking out 176 batters and walking 28. Yamamoto has the whole package – a four-pitch arsenal with a lethal splitter, the ability to both command and control his pitches, a history of pitching in big games and what is most important for a team looking to develop plans for the future – youth.

Yamamoto’s services will be in demand from many teams, but as Steve Cohen has shown, he is willing to spend to build a winner, and you could do much worse than a 25-year-old, two-time MVP, three-time Eiji Sawamura Award (NPB equivalent to the Cy Young) who seems poised to be the next big pitcher to make the jump from the NPB. If there is one knock against him – it may be his size at 5’10” and 177 pounds and how that may translate to the workload increase of pitching every fifth day. It helps that the Mets already have experience managing Kodai Senga and his workload upon his debut in the MLB.

Lucas Giolito (29) – While not the most attractive option, over the last three seasons, Giolito has shown he will go out to the mound every fifth day, notching over 30 starts in every season. Giolito just came off a mixed season that saw him pitch to a 3.79 ERA over 21 starts for the Chicago White Sox and then tumbling hard with ERAs of 6.89 and 7.04 for the Angels and Guardians, respectively. Giolito can still miss bats, but was victimized by the long ball, allowing 41 home runs.

Given his relative youth at 29 years old, a Giolito contract could take a few forms. He could look to take a one to two-year “prove it” deal with an option in year two to try and regain his value. He could look to get a contract similar to former Mets Chris Bassitt (three years, $63 million) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72 million) – but based on his end-of-season ineffectiveness, a short contract seems more than likely. Read our full profile here.

Seth Lugo (33) – A reunion with the former Met? Sure, why not – Lugo proved he could shake the stigma that his body and his stuff would not be able to handle a starter’s workload. Lugo turned in a 3.57 ERA over 146 innings, striking out 140 batters in 26 starts. Lugo opted out of his contract with the Padres, realizing he could do much better after showing he could be a viable starter. Slotting Lugo in as a fourth/fifth starter would give the Mets a righty starter who they know can handle the pressure of the New York – all while potentially being able to get him for a shorter contract due to his age.

Jack Flaherty (28) – Flaherty would be the biggest risk signing here, a former top prospect who has been both injured and ineffective since the 2019 season that saw him finish fourth in Cy Young voting. This season at least saw Flaherty start 27 games, albeit with a 4.99 ERA, striking out 148 batters over 144 innings while walking 66 batters. Due to his relative youth, it would not be hard to see a team offer Flaherty a three-year deal, hoping he can reclaim some of what made him a top prospect. At worst, if he maintains his health, you could have a fourth/fifth starter type who will pitch 150 innings to a mid-4 ERA.

Kyle Gibson (36) – Kyle Gibson is the definition of a back-end starter who will eat innings. Gibson is coming off a 2023 season that saw him pitch to a 4.73 ERA over 33 starts, striking out 157 batters. He is going to walk some batters, give up some home runs, and give up his fair share of hits. However, throughout his career, he has notched at least 25 starts in every season, minus his 2013 rookie season and the COVID-shortened 2020 season. A one-year, incentive-laden deal may be enough to get his services.

Trade Targets

Dylan Cease (27) – New White Sox GM Chris Getz has made it known that “nobody is untouchable,” – so enter a new candidate in the trade speculation wheel. Cease is coming off his worst ERA over a full season at 4.58, a career-high in walks at 79, and threw a league-leading 14 wild pitches. However, Cease is one season removed from finishing second in Cy Young voting and is only 27 years old. With the White Sox in the middle of a “re-tool” and not a rebuild, obtaining Cease would probably require a few near-MLB-ready players and a player with some MLB experience.

The Mets new and revitalized farm system may offer the kind of relief the White Sox could be looking for to compete in a weak AL Central.

Corbin Burnes (29) – Former Cy-Young winner? Check. Three-time All Star? Check. Facing another possibly contentious arbitration hearing? Check. Mets general manager David Stearns drafted Burnes in 2016 and knows the Brewers system well and their weaknesses and strengths. Burnes, if made available, will be the most in-demand starting pitcher likely to be traded. With the news of starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff all but surely missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery, the Brewers expectations may be tempered.

The Brewers have a lot of talented, young players, but they have not shown the desire to secure Burnes to a long-term contract. Yet again, the Mets farm system has a lot more intrigue and potential than it did at this same time last season. It would also be interesting to see Stearns having trade talks with his former team right off the bat.

Tyler Glasnow (30) – Glasnow has endless upside, but has only pitched over 100 innings twice in his career. His 2023 season was impressive, with a 3.53 ERA over 21 starts spanning 120 innings – striking out 162 batters while walking 37. While the Rays are competitors yearly,  Glasnow will earn 25 million dollars this season, and the Rays always have an eye to the future. Having one pitcher occupy nearly 20% of their payroll and letting him walk at the end of the season with only draft pick compensation doesn’t seem like the Rays way.

The only issue here is that the Rays may look to hold onto Glasnow until the trade deadline – but being under contract for only one more season means the return he’ll net may be lower than you’d expect.