Five Potentially Effective Bottom-Of-The-Rotation Free Agent Options

There is no secret what the New York Mets and new president of baseball operations, David Stearns, main priority will be this offseason. Pitching, pitching, and some more pitching. Right now, the team only has two starters locked into their 2024 rotation; Kodai Senga and José Quintana. This leaves three spots to be filled, with only a couple, mediocre (Joey Lucchesi 5.48 xERA last season, Tylor Megill 5.89 xERA last season, and David Peterson is injured), in-house options available.

Let’s just say the recent report of the Mets being “all over” arguably the top free agent pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is true and the team is indeed able to land him. That would fulfill the top two spots in the rotation, Yamamoto and Senga, leaving the last three to figure out. Quintana surely cements one of those last roles, still leaving two up in the air.

Who would be some of the current pitchers on the market that would fill a bottom-three starter’s role well?

Note, the below are not flashy names, nor are they suppose to be. This list is meant to focus on the more under-the-radar names who can still be effective bottom of the rotation starters (No. 3 through 5 roles).

Kenta Maeda

The now 35-year-old is a very intriguing under-the-radar option. Kenta Maeda is now entering his eighth year in the big leagues boasting a solid 3.92 ERA over his career. After missing the 2021 season due to injury (Tommy John surgery), Maeda came back last season and tossed 104 1/3 innings across 20 starts.

In 2023, he posted a 4.23 ERA and allowed 94 hits to go along with only 28 walks. All his underlying metrics painted a prettier picture, as his xBA and xERA both ranked above the league’s 65th percentile at 3.77 and .231, respectively. Maeda did a good job not walking batters (78th percentile), inducing swings and misses (66th percentile whiff rate), and getting chases (76th percentile chase rate). He had himself a very, very strong season in return from his year-long injury.

Throughout his career, Maeda has always been effective. In each of his seven seasons, he has posted an xERA below 4.00 according to Baseball Savant. Last season, he still showed the ability to pitch very strong and would automatically be a huge boost to the Mets’ rotation in a No. 3 or 4 role. Consensus for a new contract appear to be in the two-year range worth between $12 and $18 million per season.

James Paxton

The new 35-year-old James Paxton has tried to recover to full health since 2019, and finally returned to the mound for 19 starts and 96 innings last season. On the surface, the numbers do not look extremely encouraging given the 4.50 ERA. However, his underlying numbers paint a picture of an effective No. 4 or No. 5 starter.

Paxton owned an xERA and xBA last season that sat in the 64th percentile and 68th percentile, respectively. His xERA of 3.82 was 0.68 less than his actual figure showing he was likely a victim of some poor luck or lackluster fielding. His xFIP of 3.98 further highlights that claim. The Canadien also ranked above the league’s 50th percentile in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. When reviewing the full body of work, and taking in account the underlying metrics there appears to still be an effective bottom of the rotation starter.

Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projected contract is only a one-year deal worth $8 million. With a deal like this, if Paxton is able to remain healthy and replicate similar numbers to 2022, he would be extremely valuable. Especially to a team like the Mets who desperately need to fill out the bottom part of the team’s rotation.

Domingo Germán

Former New York Yankees’ starter Domingo Germán had the definition of an up-and-down season in 2023. He threw the 24th perfect game in major-league history, but still ended the season with a subpar 4.56 ERA and 5-7 record. However, like Paxton, the 31-year-old’s underlying metrics paint a much better season than indicated on the surface.

Germán’s xERA and xFIP last season are both lower than his actual ERA and FIP figures, once again indicating some poor luck. He also featured two pitches, his breaking ball and offspeed, that had run values ranking better than the league’s 75th percentile. Lastly, Germán did a good job striking hitters out (chase rate and whiff rates above the league’s 78th percentile) and limiting walks (61st percentile walk rate). All these characteristics paint a picture of a serviceable bottom of the rotation starter.

Throughout his career, Germán has always put up effective No. 4 or No. 5 starter numbers, posting xERAs of 4.09, 3.78, and 4.33, respectively, over the past three seasons. He may not be the most flashy name, however, at the likely contract he will receive given he was just outright for assignment by the Yankees, versus the likely performance he will put forth, will likely garner strong value as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

Seth Lugo

The former New York Met was finally given a full season as a starter and performed decently. Seth Lugo made 26 starts tossing 146 1/3 innings posting a 3.57 ERA. Both his ERA+ and FIP came in at solid numbers, 115 and 3.83, respectively. It was a good first year as a full-time starter for the 33-year-old.

Interestingly enough, in the opposite direction of the three listed above, Lugo’s xERA of 4.48 signified he may have posted results a tad more deceiving than he deserved. However, the 4.48 mark is still a decent figure and Lugo got the actual performance worthy of a starter’s gig going forward.

Of course, it yet remains to be seen if the former 34th-round pick by the Mets in 2011 would welcome a return back to New York. If he did, contract projections vary in the two-to-three-year range between $12-to-$14 million. A deal that would line Lugo up as a decent No. 4 starter.

Mike Clevinger

The 32-year-old Florida native is now three-to-four years removed from strong runs as a part of that young stable of really strong Cleveland Indians’ starters. However, he likely still possesses the ability to be an effective bottom of the rotation starter. Last season, Mike Clevinger threw 131 1/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox, posting a 3.77 ERA. This one year after 114 1/3 innings with the San Diego Padres in 2022 where he struggled posting a 4.33 ERA and 87 ERA+.

Last season, Clevinger’s solid 3.77 ERA and 110 ERA+ indicates there still is an effective starter there and shows that the lackluster 2021 season shouldn’t be the baseline. In 2022, he posted an xERA and an xBA in the league’s 52nd and 53rd percentiles, respectively. He also posted run values of the three main pitch types – fastball, breaking, and offspeed – above the leagues 65th percentile. The big right-handed pitcher did a good job limiting walks (65th percentile), avoiding opponent’s barrels (63rd percentile), and avoiding hard contact (72nd percentile hard hit rate).

The contract projections for the former Indian vary in the two-year range for $11-to-$13 million per season. This would be very solid for a No. 4 starter, especially if he is able to replicate the season he put forth last season.

Contract projections from Fangrpah’s crowd-sourced projections as well as MLB Trade Rumors‘ projections.