Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The 2021 campaign did not go according to plan for Carlos Carrasco and the Mets. Carrasco was a key piece of an off-season trade in which the Mets also acquired Francisco Lindor. However, due to injuries, Carrasco’s Mets debut did not occur until July 30, and he never looked quite right on the mound. The 2022 season, though, has been a completely different story for Cookie.

Carrasco’s traditional statistics look good so far in 2022, including 10 wins (tied for third in the National League) and 100 strikeouts in 99 innings. However, when considering a slightly more advanced metric— Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)— Cookie’s bounce back is even more impressive.

Unless it is hit towards them, a pitcher has no control over what happens once a batted ball is put into play. Instead, he relies on the skill, positioning, and acumen of the eight fielders behind him, and even his own, as a pitcher is counted as just another fielder when computing stats like earned runs. Therefore, a batted ball entering the field of play introduces a considerable amount of luck that can influence a pitcher’s statistics. Commonly used metrics such as ERA, however, do not account for the variability of fielding. Indeed, for the purposes of that measure, all outs recorded by fielders are equal, whether it’s a routine fly ball or one of the greatest catches of all time.

ERA counts Endy Chavez‘s legendary catch as equal to a routine pop-up.

Further complicating matters, a pitcher’s ERA can also be influenced by sequencing, another factor not truly indicative of their skill. For example, we can think about two pitchers, A and B, both of whom allow six hits over six innings pitched, all of them singles, and no other baserunners. Pitcher A scatters those hits equally over the six innings, one per inning, and allows zero runs. Pitcher B, however, allows three consecutive singles in the second inning, and again in the fourth innings, with a run-scoring in both instances. Therefore, while Pitchers A and B were equally effective in preventing baserunners, Pitcher A winds up with a perfect 0.00 ERA for the start, while Pitcher B earns an ERA of 3.00. FIP is therefore a handy tool because it only considers outcomes that a pitcher has complete control over, namely strikeouts, unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. It simply ignores balls hit into play, since those results are not believed to be as accurate a reflection of a pitcher’s performance.

How is FIP calculated? According to the MLB Glossary, the formula is ((HR x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) – (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant. The ‘FIP constant’ at the end of the formula is simply a number used to put FIP on the same scale as ERA and adjust the league average FIP to match the league average ERA. This allows us to look at a FIP value and interpret it the same way as an identical ERA value. For example, a FIP below 3.00 would generally be quite strong.

Since, like ERA, a higher FIP is bad, and a lower one is good, we can now understand more clearly how the formula works. As homers are quite damaging to a pitcher, FIP punishes them quite severely for allowing one, to the tune of 13 for each. Walks and hit-by-pitches are also bad for pitchers, but not nearly as much as a home run, so each one only counts as 3 in the FIP calculation. Meanwhile, strikeouts are a huge asset for pitchers, often representing a best-case scenario, since they prevent bad things from happening, not only hits, but also other events that can harm a pitcher, such as errors, misplays, and sacrifice flies. This makes strikeouts a crucial component of the FIP formula, and they are assigned a negative number, given their many benefits to a pitcher.

Jumping back to the topic of Carlos Carrasco’s rebound, it turns out that solely considering ERA actually understates his improvements in 2022. Cookie’s 4.27 ERA, inflated recently by a few tough starts versus Houston, may seem a bit underwhelming. His FIP, however, is a solid 3.51. Why is there such a large gap between ERA and FIP? Well, this tells us that Cookie has overall pitched quite effectively, and perhaps received some bad luck. In terms of what he can control, Carrasco ranks among roughly the top 25% of pitchers in walks issued, is allowing fewer homers than the league average and is striking out more batters than average. Thus, Carrasco has likely been victimized by some poor luck this season.

Indeed, a few big innings have inflated his ERA, such as a six-run inning for the Phillies, in which five of the runs were charged to Cookie, the final two on a Garrett Stubbs three-run homer allowed by Chasen Shreve. Indeed, had some of the batted balls that inning been turned into outs, or had Shreve not allowed the inherited baserunners to score, Carrasco’s season ERA would be lower. As a result of all this, we can conclude that if he continues to throw the ball this well and stay healthy, Cookie should continue to pitch like an upper-end starter for the Mets, and his ERA should decline.

Like all statistics, FIP has its limitations. By ignoring batted balls, we are removing some key metrics that can predict a pitcher’s success, namely the quality of contact he allows. If a pitcher consistently gives up hard hit balls, they are more likely to fall as hits, which should result in more runs allowed and a poorer outcome for his team. It can be challenging, however, to distill batted ball statistics down into a single number, as several metrics, including average exit velocity, expected batting average, and barrel percentage, all contribute. So, if you are trying to quickly assess a pitcher’s effectiveness, FIP is an excellent tool to use. Plus, for Mets fans, here is a handy way to end a debate: The active leader in career FIP, by a wide margin? One Jacob Anthony deGrom.

The post Analytics Corner: Carrasco’s Rebound Season Showcases Context of FIP appeared first on Metsmerized.

When the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz along with Robinson Cano from the Seattle Mariners in December 2018, there were a lot of fans that were frustrated with the package of prospects sent to Seattle, but at the same time excited about the potential Diaz brought to the back-end of the Mets bullpen.

He had an incredible 2018 season in Seattle, when he led the league with 57 saves while also posting a 1.96 ERA, 1.61 FIP, and 15.2 K/9.

Mets fans hadn’t seen a reliever with this kind of stuff since Jeurys Familia was making opposing hitters look silly with his 95 MPH splitter back in 2015-2016.

Diaz’s first season in Flushing obviously didn’t go as planned, with the then 25-year-old blowing big spot after big spot, finishing the year with a 7.23 ERA and 15 HR allowed over 51 appearances in the 9th inning.

And after another rough start in 2020, it seems like Diaz is slowly getting back to that pitcher we all loved watching highlights of in a Mariners uniform.

The Puerto Rico native is currently ranked in the Top-5 among National League relievers in FIP (1.86), K/9 (19.2), K-BB% (38.2), and FangraphsWAR (0.8).

A lot of those numbers likely have to do with the fact that Diaz was demoted to low-leverage situations for a good portion of the season, but it also has plenty to do with him rediscovering that electric slider.

In 2018 with Seattle, Diaz threw the slider 436 times, and had an incredible 54.0 whiff percentage and .234 slugging percentage.

He was still getting a lot of swing and miss on that pitch in 2019 (43.2 whiff percentage), but the .622 slugging percentage shows that it just wasn’t the same.

But in 2020? This might be the best it’s ever been for Diaz.

He has thrown the slider 153 times thus far in his 21 appearances, and it’s produced a 62.2 whiff percentage, .171 slugging percentage, and an average exit velocity of 81.6 MPH — all career-highs for the 26-year-old.

The 4-seam fastball, however, still isn’t where Diaz wants it to be. A .273 batting average and and .485 slugging percentage are both career lows.

So he will need to get that pitch back to where it was 2-3 years ago if he truly wants to be that elite closer again in New York City.

Just because Diaz looks good now, does that mean we have seen him blow his last game in a Mets uniform?

Most likely not, due to the natural volatility of relievers, and a much more steady diet of high-leverage situations coming his way with Seth Lugo locked into the starting rotation.

But if he can continue putting hitters away with that slider and work on his fastball command a bit more, I’ll bet that we’ll all be  doing a lot more cheering than booing of Diaz’s name in the Citi Field stands for years to come.

The post Diaz Looking More Like His Old Self appeared first on Metsmerized.

Sliders are all the rage nowadays. We have Rob Friedman to thank for that.

Friedman, more commonly known by his Twitter handle Pitching Ninja, has made a name for himself by posting GIFs of physics-defying pitches during the last couple of seasons. On his account, he’s highlighted certain hurlers that he’s found interesting.

Chaz Roe owes Friedman a bottle of wine.

Roe, a reliever for the Tampa Bay Rays, has found himself at the center of multiple viral tweets sent from Friedman’s account.

Chaz Roe is not your typical fireman. He’s a slider-heavy monster in the scientific experiment that is the Tampa Bay Rays relief corps. The righty has been worth 2.4 fWAR over the course of his career, posting a 3.85 ERA and 3.59 FIP.

Roe’s repertoire consists of a fastball, a slider, and a cutter; all three pitches have fared well in the majors. It’s his slider that sets him apart from other late-inning relievers.

Every slider is unique. Some bite. Others cut. Some others act like frisbees. As one of MMO’s resident Ultimate Frisbee players, I can confirm that Chaz Roe’s slider has frisbee-like qualities.

It’s movement is off-the-charts. Earlier this season, David Adler of MLB.com noted that one of Roe’s sliders moved two feet to the left. That’s almost humanly impossible.

A physics-breaking slider is nothing new for Roe; his name has routinely appeared atop slider movement leaderboards.

I spent a lot of time watching Chaz Roe’s breaker this quarantine (Don’t judge me). While scrolling through his GIFs, I started to think about what makes a slider successful. Do all successful sliders have fantastic movement qualities? Or is Roe just an anomaly?

Jacob deGood.

Jacob deGreat.

Jacob deGod.

Throw any and every moniker on Jacob deGrom; the point still stands he’s a God among mortals.

Right now, there’s no better pitcher on Planet Earth than deGrom. And yes, that includes Gerrit Cole.

DeGrom’s modest beginnings as a pitcher started midway through his tenure at Stetson University. He was initially recruited to play shortstop but fully transitioned to the mound by his junior year.  Once he committed to the mound full-time, he became a staple under Friday night lights.

The lanky right-hander was drafted by New York in the ninth round of the 2011 draft, but underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after. DeGrom gradually rose up the Mets’ system as a starting pitcher, while being more well-known for his flow than his pitching. Boy, that opinion quickly changed once he reached the majors.

Within a year, every Mets fan knew the name. Within two years, every baseball fan knew who the hairy, Queens-based right-hander was. Wins be damned, he certified himself as the best pitcher in baseball.

The average velocity on both his fastball and slider are tops in the majors. The velocity on his change-up ranks second, only behind the Rays’ Tyler Glasnow. His simple, repeatable motion generates elite extension, which has allowed him to develop into one of the most dominant pitchers of this generation. His raw stuff is very good.

And I haven’t even mentioned his back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards, his NL Rookie of the Year award, his three All-Star nominations, or his 42 career starts with double-digit strikeouts, a mark that ranks second all-time among pitchers with 175 starts.

And the scary part for the league is that he’s only getting started.

Former Mets analyst Andrew Perpetua posted this graphic on Twitter a couple of weeks ago.

I took deGrom's FF velo, rounded it to nearest integer, and took each of those integer buckets as a fraction of his total FF thrown. pic.twitter.com/BA4mBevIAH

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) August 4, 2020

Matt Kelly of MLB.com recently analyzed this phenomenon and concluded that few pitchers have approached the trajectory deGrom is on. Since 2008, only eight other pitchers have increased their velocity for four consecutive seasons. As deGrom’s growing older, he is adding on velocity at an unprecedented rate. Many pitchers lose effectiveness as they get older; deGrom’s an anomaly.

How is Jake doing this?

The scary thing is, no one really knows. DeGrom might be an exception to the rules of science; he is baseball’s answer to Black Holes. We don’t know how they exist; we just take them for granted.

For someone who didn’t start pitching until college, his arsenal is earth-shattering. It consists of a high-90s four-seam fastball, thrown at a 12:40 tilt with a 95% spin efficiency. He complements his fastball with a pair of devastating off-speed deliveries: a slider and a change-up. His slider is thrown at 11:20 tilt with a 50% spin efficiency while his changeup has a 2:20 tilt with a 92% spin efficiency.

As deGrom’s career has progressed, he’s relied more on his slider, with its usage rising from 16% in 2014 to 35% in 2020. As it’s velocity has increased, batters have been chasing it more often.

Even though the pitch had a pVAL of 21.8 last season, it’s still a work-in-progress. Tim Healey of Newsday described deGrom’s efforts in spring training to improve the pitch by adding a “backdoor” element to it. By backdooring the slider, he hoped that lefties would have a tougher time picking the ball up.

So far, it’s working. Through five starts in 2020, lefties have only mustered a .063 wOBA against the pitch.

It’s been deGrom’s main offspeed weapon this season. It’s a beautiful thing to watch every fifth day. Insanely fast and it tunnels extremely well with his fastball.

Good luck hitting this.

Jacob deGrom, 3 Pitch K Sequence vs Freeman.

94mph Unfair Slider.
100mph Fastball.
85mph Curveball.

Amazing when a 100mph Fastball is the most hittable pitch in a sequence. 😀 pic.twitter.com/ken7KG2Ww9

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 3, 2020

But his slider isn’t good for the reason you think.

It isn’t thrown with the demonic movement qualities that Chaz Roe’s slider is. If we glance at the slider movement leaderboards available on Baseball Savant, deGrom’s name is absent.

Then why is it so nasty?

Well, because it’s technically not a slider.

Ethan Moore of Prospects 365 posted this fascinating visual on Twitter a couple of weeks ago.

"Jacob deGrom's Slider is faster than the average MLB Fastball!"

This is because his Slider profiles more like a Cutter (which is a type of Fastball). The pitch has far greater vertical movement and less horizontal movement than the average MLB Slider.

It's a really good Cutter pic.twitter.com/kGUPeM8Hsy

— Ethan Moore📈 (@Moore_Stats) July 30, 2020

The pitch’s definition shouldn’t be ambiguous, but it is. It’s only characterized as a slider because deGrom says so and who are we to argue with the two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner. It has some qualities that profile as a slider, but others that designate it as a cutter.

If we look at its velocity, spin axis, and movement, it’s a cutter. DeGrom’s average velocity on the pitch ranks first among all sliders thrown in the majors this season. If we look at the spin axis of the pitch, it’s 11:20 tilt is consistent with other cutters.

Its vertical and horizontal movement values also correspond more with an MLB-caliber cutter. It drops less than the standard MLB slider but still has above-average run.

This Google Sheet has the vertical/horizontal movement values for every MLB pitcher who threw a cutter in 2020. DeGrom’s “slider” fits in much better in this categorization, compared to his ranking in the slider movement leaderboard.

Still, the spin efficiency on the pitch portrays it as a slider. As baseball analyst Jeremy Maschino pointed out on Twitter, deGrom’s spin efficiency on his slider is around 40%, a mark that’s very similar to other sliders.

DeGrom’s not the only Met with a slider that confuses pitch-tracking systems. When Dan Warthen gained the reins to the Mets’ pitchers, he taught his pupils a new slider, “The Warthen Slider”. Instead of a slider that runs, he emphasized his pitchers to throw one that rose more. The pitch has a high amount of gyro spin, which allows the pitch to have more natural cut.

“A Warthen Slider” has more velocity and less drop than the average slider, which allows it to tunnel better with a properly-designed fastball. It’s a pretty unique pitch with Warthen telling Fangraphs‘ Eno Sarris in 2015:

“It’s a different spin, it’s a different grip. The whole idea is not to use your wrist to try and spin the ball, you want your fingers to spin the ball. You’re thinking fastball and just kind of cutting through the ball,”

DeGrom’s embraced the pitch. He’s grown extremely comfortable with it, throwing it more often every year. It’s helped him transform from the ace of the Mets’ staff into one of the best pitchers in Mets history.

DeGrom’s parlayed his success with “The Warthen Slider” into two Cy Young Awards. Many think that Jacob deGrom has developed into one of the majors’ best pitchers thanks to his fastball and slider combo. But the question still remains: is that truly the case?

Previous iterations in this series:

Edwin Diaz

J.D. Davis

Jeff McNeil

Marcus Stroman

Noah Syndergaard

Michael Conforto

Seth Lugo

Wilson Ramos

Rick Porcello

The post Statcast Breakdown: Jacob deGrom appeared first on Metsmerized.

Sunday, July 26, 2020 • 7:08 p.m.

Citi Field • Flushing, NY

LHP Sean Newcomb (2019: 6-3, 3.16) vs. RHP Rick Porcello (2019: 14-12, 5.52)

ESPN • WCBS 880 AM • WQBU 92.7 FM

We are only a few days into the new season and I’m going to offer my controversial Hot Take from yesterday: I think Díaz threw a good pitch, and sometimes you get beat.

It’s hard saying that in the backdrop of what happened last year and his performance this spring/summer. As you know by now, Díaz allowed the tying run in the ninth and the Mets went into extras with Hunter Strickland – who performed exactly like his numbers suggested he would – and the Mets couldn’t recover.

Heartbreaking losses are now 2.7 times more heartbreaking in 2020, and I don’t know about you but I forgot how to lose so it was a rough night.

But now we’re back. The Mets have one of the Sunday night games as they finish off their series with the Braves. Since teams are essentially playing in geographic divisions, Sunday night baseball is now a double header, moving the Mets to a much more normal 7 p.m. start rather than 8 p.m. start.

Mets Lineup

1. Amed Rosario – SS
2. Jeff McNeil – 3B
3. Pete Alonso – 1B
4. Yoenis Cespedes – DH
5. Michael Conforto – RF
6. J.D. Davis – LF
7. Robinson Cano – 2B
8. Tomas Nido – C
9. Brandon Nimmo – CF

Braves Lineup

1. Ronald Acuna Jr. – RF
2. Ozzie Albies – 2B
3. Freddie Freeman – 1B
4. Marcell Ozuna – LF
5. Matt Adams – DH
6. Dansby Swanson – SS
7. Austin Riley 3B
8. Ender Inciarte – CF
9. William Contreras – C

Rick Porcello will make his Mets debut tonight! Porcello is coming off an awful year, pitching 174.1 innings over 32 starts with a 5.52 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 87 ERA+, and 1.394 WHIP.

The only time his FIP has ever been higher was in his rookie year, where he posted a much better 114 ERA+ (his ERA+ has been above 100 four times in 11 seasons). The last time he faced the Braves was in 2018 and it was a good start, allowing only one run on two hits over five innings.

The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Freddie Freeman 5-11, BB, K
• Adam Duvall 3-4
• Matt Adams 1-3, K
• Adeiny Hechavarria 4-22, 2B, HR, 2 K
• Charlie Culberson 1-4, 2 K
• Ender Inciarte 0-3
• Ozzie Albies 0-2, K
• Ronald Acuna Jr. 0-3, K
• Johan Camargo 0-2, K

Sean Newcomb returns to the rotation for the Atlanta Braves. He made his debut in 2017 at 24-years-old and made 19 starts over 100 innings with a 4.32 ERA. The following year he made 30 starts and pitched 164.0 innings with a 3.90 ERA.

Last year, the Braves moved him mostly to the bullpen, and he pitched in 55 games with four starts totaling 68.1 innings with a 3.16 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.317 WHIP, and 144 ERA+. Last year was his best in ERA+, ERA, and WHIP and his worst in FIP.

His numbers against the Mets were not good last year. He logged only 6.1 innings despite pitching in relief for six games and starting one, allowing eight runs from nine hits and three walks.

Despite that stat line, for the most part, the Mets’ numbers against him are not that scary:

• Robinson Cano 1-2
• Pete Alonso 1-2, 2B, K
• Amed Rosario 5-10, 2 2B, BB, 3 K
• Rene Rivera 4-6, 2 2B, 2 BB,2 K
• J.D. Davis 0-2, 2 BB
• Jeff McNeil 2-6, 2B, K
• Dominic Smith 1-5, 2B, BB, 3 K
• Yoenis Cespedes 1-8, 2B, BB, 3 K
• Michael Conforto 0-7, 3 BB, 3 K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-7, 2 BB, 3 K

Game Notes

New York starters have allowed only one run after two starts, tossing 11.0 innings and allowing three hits and two walks while striking out 15. In 2019, the Mets starters owned a 3.84 ERA (402 earned runs/941.1 innings) with 273 walks and 964 strikeouts. The team’s 3.84 ERA ranked seventh in the majors and fourth in the NL, while the 964 strikeouts ranked fourth in the majors and second in the senior circuit.

Rick Porcello is tied for 11th among active pitchers with 149 career wins. He’s earned at least 10 victories in all but one of his 11 major league campaigns. He is one of just five pitchers with at least 10 seasons with double-digit wins since his rookie year in 2009, joining Zack Greinke (11), Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Jon Lester.

Porcello tonight will make his fifth career start against Atlanta. In his previous four starts, he’s 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA (eight earned runs/24.0
innings). He has won each of his last two starts against the club, both in Atlanta, in 2016 and 2018.

Let’s Go Mets! Check 213 Miles From Shea!

The post MMO Game Thread: Braves vs Mets, 7:08 PM appeared first on Metsmerized.

Let’s try something a little different this week and look at who the top Mets pitchers are not in ERA or WHIP, but FIP.

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching

Measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play to put a pitcher’s performance on a level playing field for purposes of a fair comparison. Essentially, it’s a better version of ERA.

So on that note can you name the Mets’ Top 20 Career Leaders in FIP?

Qualified pitchers will have a minimum of 500 innings pitched.

You have FOUR minutes… Good Luck!

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The post So You Think You Know The Mets: Top 20 FIP Leaders appeared first on Metsmerized.

Last week, I unveiled the 2020 ATC projections for New York Mets hitters. I am the creator of the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projection system, which has appeared on FanGraphs since 2017.

As a quick refresher, ATC is a “smart” aggregation model of other projection systems – a methodology similar to what Nate Silver does with his presidential forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com. The Average Total Cost Projection system (ATC) has been one of the most accurate projection systems available to the public over the past few seasons.

Today we will take a look at some early findings for Mets pitchers.

Before getting to the 2020 ATC projections for the Mets, let’s look at some individual results from last year.

Player                        FIP
Brad Brach              2.67
Jacob deGrom        2.67
Seth Lugo                2.70
Zack Wheeler          3.48
Noah Syndergaard 3.60
Justin Wilson          3.91
Robert Gsellman    4.13
Marcus Stroman    4.15
Edwin Diaz              4.51
Steven Matz            4.60
Jason Vargas          4.70
Jeurys Familia        4.88
Daniel Zamora        4.94
Luis Avilan              4.96
Chris Flexen            5.56

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a statistic that estimates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the performance of their defense. FIP is formulaically based on strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs allowed. FIP is an ERA approximator – which is more indicative of a player’s true skill than ERA alone.

Jacob deGrom in 2019 was of course the NL Cy Young award winner. His 2.67 FIP was a bit higher than his 2.43 ERA indicated, but still in elite territory. deGrom clearly has the goods to carry the team as an elite ace.

In the bullpen, Seth Lugo’s FIP was at career best levels. He improved upon his FIP in every single season of his career thus far. Last year’s 2.70 FIP was identical to his 2.70 ERA – so Lugo was every bit as good as his skills indicated.

As for fireballer Noah Syndergaard, his ERA increased last year to an all-time high of 4.28. That is over a full run higher than in any one season of his career. He may have had some bad luck in ’19 – his LOB% (strand rate) was below 70%, and his FIP was markedly better at 3.60. If the Mets defense can improve and Thor can limit the home runs given up – Noah could ascend to all-star levels once again. Limiting his stolen bases allowed would help too.

What encourages me the most about Syndergaard was that he threw a career high of over 197 innings last season – after only throwing 184 combined innings in the two seasons prior.

Let’s now take a look at the 2020 projections. Below are the 2020 ATC Projections for New York Mets pitchers:

Player Name            IP  BB  HA  W  S  K  ERA  WHIP

Jacob deGrom         200 46 162 14 0 248 2.80 1.04
Noah Syndergaard   186 46 177 12 0 191 3.80 1.20
Marcus Stroman      173 58 176 11 0 152 3.87 1.35
Rick Porcello           167 42 174 12 0 150 4.61 1.29
Steven Matz             153 51 152 9 0 147 4.19 1.33

Michael Wacha        76 30 76 4 0 68 4.41 1.39
Seth Lugo                 73 17 61 4 6 85 3.19 1.07
Edwin Diaz                63 21 46 3 29 100 3.24 1.07
Dellin Betances       54 26 38 3 3 86 3.02 1.18
Justin Wilson            54 25 44 4 1 65 3.38 1.27
Jeurys Familia          54 28 49 3 1 58 4.17 1.42
Robert Gsellman      46 16 45 2 0 42 4.25 1.33
Brad Brach                44 19 42 2 1 47 4.26 1.37

Player Notes

The top 5 starters are projected to be deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Porcello and Matz. Michael Wacha is currently projected to be the sixth starter and long reliever.

Closer Edwin Diaz is expected to bounce back from his atrocious 1 st season as a New York Met. In 2019, although Diaz saved 26 games, he compiled a 1.38 WHIP to go along with an astronomical 5.59 ERA. He did manage to strike out 99 batters last season but gave up 15 homers in the process. For 2020, ATC is projecting a return to form with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP to go with 29 saves.

Only Seth Lugo is projected to be a better arm out of the Mets bullpen. ATC projects 73 innings for the curveball spin master – pitching to the tune of a 3.19 ERA. Lugo is likely the most valuable arm that Mets will deploy and will be used in high leverage situations.

Dellin Betances could turn out to be the Mets best free agent signing. ATC is projecting Dellin to strike out 86 batters in 54 innings (14 K/9) as he moves over to the Queens side of town. ATC projects a bullpen best 3.02 ERA for Betances in 2020.

Each of the remaining top bullpen arms project to be high strikeout pitchers. ATC projects Wilson, Familia, Gsellman and Brach to have close or above a 9 K/9 ratio – throwing a strikeout per inning.

Jacob deGrom is projected to have another ace-like season. ATC projects the back-to-back Cy Young award winner to strikeout 248 batters in 200 innings, including a sub-3.00 ERA. Obviously, if the Mets intend to make a playoff push, they have to count on deGrom to be healthy all season long.

Noah Syndergaard’s strikeout rate has been in decline over the past few seasons. He used to sport a 10+ K/9 rate, but it has hovered closer to 9 K/9 in recent years. ATC is projecting the same skill set as last year for Thor, but we are hoping for a bit more luck.

Marcus Stroman is a big key for the Mets’ pitching depth this season. He sported a 3.22 ERA last season (with 2 teams). This season, ATC projections model deterioration – Stroman is projected for a 3.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. We are hoping he is able to beat those figures, but even still, 173 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball for Stroman would give this rotation excellent depth.

Finally, the Mets’ rotation is rounded out by the veterans Steven Matz and Rick Porcello. ATC is projecting 21 wins between the two. It was important for the Brodie Van Waganen to invest in team rotation depth in the offseason.

The Mets also added Michael Wacha for depth as the sixth starter. Wacha projects for a better ERA than Porcello, so if Rick struggles early on – don’t be surprised to see Wacha step up and fill in.

You can find the full 2020 ATC projections for pitchers on the FanGraphs website under its projections section, or by clicking here.

The post Mets 2020 ATC Pitchers Projections appeared first on Metsmerized.

In the first half of 2019, Steven Matz struggled with 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The underlying metrics also reflected poor results, as his 5.40 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ranked second worst in the National League among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.

But something suddenly clicked for Matz in the second half. Once he returned from a temporary bullpen stint, the southpaw turned his season around with a 3.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He also lowered his FIP to 3.78, which shows that his post all-star break resurgence likely wasn’t the result of mere luck or his fielders playing better behind him.

The most significant change for Matz was that he started relying more on his slider. He increased his slider usage from 6.4 percent to 21.0 percent.

After this repertoire change, batters had a harder time squaring up against Matz. He dropped his hard-hit rate from 39.8 percent to 32.5 percent, and he stopped getting hammered with the long ball.

Matz got shelled with 18 homeruns allowed in the first half. But he sawed that total down to nine in the second half, thanks in-part to reducing his fly ball rate from 35.4 percent to 30.5 percent.

According to Fangraphs, Matz also experienced an uptick in his velocity. In the first half, his fastball speed was 92.9 MPH, but in the second half, his fastball velocity increased to 93.9 MPH.

Additionally, Matz increased his strikeout rate while reducing his walk rate. He struck out 21.6 percent of batters in the first half, compared to 22.8 percent in the second half. He also cut his walks down from eight percent to seven percent.

These are all encouraging signs for Matz, but are they sustainable? These trends come in a sample size of just 14 starts, so it’s important to not get too carried away. In the past, Matz disappointed fans many times before, so skepticism is justified.

A second round pick out of high school by the Mets in 2009, Matz always impressed scouts with his potential. He was ranked inside the MLB’s top 15 prospects in 2016 by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. He also shined in both his rookie and sophomore campaigns with a combined 13-8 record, 3.16 ERA, and 3.44 FIP.

But multiple arm injuries have plagued Matz and limited his upside. For example, a bone spur ended his 2016 season, and when he returned the following year, he posted a career worst 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. He told reporters at the time that he was “pitching through pain” all year.

Since his woeful 2017 season, Matz has made 30 starts in consecutive years, which has helped quite concerns about his durability. While hasn’t pitched at a dominant level with a combined 4.09 ERA over the past two years, his second half surge should give the Mets cautious optimism for Matz in 2020.

Even if he never lives up to the hype he received as a prospect, he should be in line for a solid season as the team’s fourth starter.

The post Can Steven Matz Build Off His Improved Second Half? appeared first on Metsmerized.

In a year where the Mets bullpen was mostly in shambles, there remained one constant breath of stability: Seth Lugo.

New York ranked fifth worst in all of baseball with a bullpen ERA of 4.99, 12th worst with a FIP of 4.71, eighth worst with an xFIP of 4.75 and seventh worst with 0.7 fWAR.

However, Lugo was worth 2.2 fWAR, had an ERA and FIP of 2.70 and an xFIP of 3.24 through 61 games (80.0 innings pitched. The right-hander also had a robust 11.7 K/9, 74.5 percent strand rate and a career low 1.80 walk percentage.

Going forward, Lugo could be a valuable asset to the Mets bullpen for years to come. Only thing is, he wants to start again and the Mets aren’t opposed to the idea.

“I’m a starter who’s in the bullpen. All my personal goals are starter-based,” Lugo told Anthony Reiber of Newsday last month. “I’d like to win 20 games. I’ve still never had a nine-inning complete game […] All my goals are starter-based; everybody knows it.”

Former manager Mickey Callaway seconded Lugo’s notion and agreed that he could see the Louisiana native start again.

“I think you can definitely see him as a starter at some point. I think it depends on the makeup of the team; what does the team need? He can excel in any role out there because he’s a great pitcher.”

“He can be a multiple-inning reliever, he can be just a closer, he can be a starter. I think he could fulfill anything you want and whatever the team needs.”

For New York, they have several needs in which to address this winter. Two of the big ones are fixing their bullpen, and likely replacing Zack Wheeler in the starting rotation.

Wheeler, 29, will likely have a qualifying offer extended to him this winter, but since he is one of the more appealing names on the open market, it seems as though the Mets are unwilling to dole out a huge contract to him.

Though Lugo has thrived as a reliever (2.52 ERA in 178.1 career innings) and has had mixed results as a starter (4.06 ERA in 168.1 career innings), New York could choose to slot Lugo into the rotation in order to replace Wheeler.

The peripherals show that he could potentially have success as a starter. In 2019, his barrel rate was a career low at 5.3 percent, his exit velocity and hard hit percentages were in line with his career numbers, and his xBA (.178), xSLG (.303), wOBA (.240), xWOBA (.230) and strikeout rate (33.1 percent) all set career bests.

The spin rate on his curveball is one of the best in the game, ranking in the 100th percentile, and his strikeout rate also ranks in the 91st percentile, while his xWOBA, xBA, xSLG and hard hit percentage are some of the best in the game. So there’s definitely strong potential there, especially as Lugo enters his prime years.

But then this raises the question: what do you do with your bullpen?

For the most part, the only other valuable reliever the Mets had out there in 2019 was Justin Wilson, who pitched to a 2.54 ERA in 45 outings.

Edwin Diaz, the Mets prized acquisition of the offseason, did a complete 180 and is far from reliable at this point, while Jeurys Familia, the other Mets key signing this winter also regressed precipitously.

Removing Lugo, the most stable reliever from a bullpen that was one of the worst in the league is nothing but trouble. Especially if the Mets are bogged down financially with little wiggle room this winter.

So what do they do? While Lugo has starter aspirations, for the Mets, it makes the most sense to keep him where he is.

If the team doesn’t want to spend on Wheeler this winter, which they absolutely should, they should add an external fifth starter type and spend on adding to their bullpen to give Lugo pieces around him.

The post What Role Should the Mets Use Seth Lugo In For 2020? appeared first on Metsmerized.

Well, here we are. There are no more regular season games to be played in 2019; the numbers are set in stone. Pitchers can no longer help their case with a strong start, or hurt their chances with a blow-up. What’s done is done, so let’s take a look at the best pitchers in the National League, and how likely they each are to earn the NL Cy Young Award.

Jacob deGrom – 11-8, 32 GS, 204 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 0.971 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 255 K, 7.9 bWAR, 7.0 fWAR

Poised to win his second consecutive Cy Young Award, Jacob deGrom seems to be the front-runner. He led National League pitchers with 255 strikeouts and a 7.9 bWAR, finished second in ERA, FIP, and WHIP, and finished towards the top in all other categories. He went at least seven innings in 19 of his 32 starts, and allowed more than three earned runs only five times.

In his last four starts, he went seven innings in each, racking up 35 strikeouts in 28 innings, allowing only one earned run and holding opposing batters to a .128/.155/.170 slash line. Nobody did a better job to solidify their Cy Young chances down the stretch, let alone most of the season, than deGrom.

Max Scherzer – 11-7, 27 GS, 172.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 1.027 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 243 K, 5.8 bWAR, 6.5 fWAR

A sure-thing Hall of Famer, Scherzer did well to build on his resume for that. Unfortunately, due to injuries (and deGrom being so good), he might not have done enough to build a resume for the 2019 NL Cy Young. Having missed time due to injuries, Mad Max only made 27 starts – five less than deGrom, and pitching 31 2/3 less innings. Despite that, his NL-leading 12.7 K/9 ratio left him with the third-most strikeouts in the NL.

The strikeouts and his MLB-best 2.45 FIP are big reasons why he’s still very much in this conversation despite missing time. This is the first season since 2012 he didn’t pitch at least 200 innings, and it hurt him. This will likely be the second-straight season he finished second in voting to deGrom, and will surely be his seventh straight season finishing fifth or higher in Cy Young voting.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 14-5, 29 GS, 182.2 IP, 2.32 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.007 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 163 K, 5.3 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR

Another pitcher who’s resume is hurt by a lack of innings-pitched, Ryu was the no-doubt front-runner for most of the season. An injury, and later an implosion, hurt his chances, but he is still in the race thanks to his MLB-best ERA and MLB-best 1.2 BB/9. He is at an immense disadvantage to Scherzer and deGrom in many categories including strikeouts, FIP, and WAR, but if he can find voters that don’t care about strikeouts and disregard FIP in favor or ERA, he could garner votes.

These three aces will likely be the top three finalists in Cy Young voting, but many NL pitchers had outstanding seasons. These pitchers include Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 251 K, 6.5 bWAR), Jack Flaherty (33 GS, 2.75 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, 5.9 bWAR), Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.7 HR/9, 5.7 bWAR), and Patrick Corbin (14-7, 33 GS, 238 K, 5.7 bWAR).

The post Final Look At NL Cy Young Numbers appeared first on Metsmerized.

Fresh off some clubhouse controversy, Jason Vargas made his first start since the unfortunate events that occurred at Wrigley Field on Sunday.  The elder statesman of the starting rotation showed no signs of letting the behind the scenes issues get to him as he continues his strong string of starts for the Metropolitans before the bullpen gave it all away, yet again.

Vargas, 36, put forth another quality start on Wednesday night, tossing 6.1 solid innings of ball before handing it over to the albatross that has become the Mets’ bullpen. He allowed two runs on three hits while walking two and striking out ten Philadelphia Phillies in the process.

The 10 strikeouts from Vargas were a season high and also matched a career high for the the veteran pitcher who has been a surprising bright spot for the team after a rough start to his season. His changeup has been a big reason for that and on Wednesday night he threw 29 of them with 12 swinging strikes.

The Mets pulled Vargas after just 77 pitches when manager, Mickey Callaway handed the ball over to Seth Lugo. The rest is history as for the Major League leading 19th time this season the bullpen would give away what could have been a Mets victory.

The Mets manager spoke after the game on what was another disappointing loss for the struggling club.

“They all sting,” Callaway said. “It’s another one, we had a lead with not many outs to go, and we just can’t hold it. If we’d have done that consistently all season, we’d be there right with everybody at the top. It hasn’t happened.” (MLB)

Vargas did not get to speak much on his terrific start on Wednesday night as the majority of questions centered around the earlier fracas that occurred on Sunday. The southpaw was quick to give some further thoughts on the situation.

“I don’t think all the information is out there,” Vargas said. “I don’t think this is a time to get into that, but I think anybody that knows me or has played with me through the duration of my career, there has never been a situation like that, so think it just happened out of the blue would be foolish.” (NY Post)

It was an unfortunate situation that has drawn the attention of many, including the SNY booth who were not afraid to give their disappointments on how the situation has been handled by all, Vargas included.

Vargas has now shown his ability to be consistent on the mound for a good period of time in 2019 as his ERA sits at 3.66 with a WHIP of 1.28 and a FIP of 4.35. His WAR sits at 1.1 on the season.

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