In the first half of 2019, Steven Matz struggled with 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The underlying metrics also reflected poor results, as his 5.40 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ranked second worst in the National League among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.
But something suddenly clicked for Matz in the second half. Once he returned from a temporary bullpen stint, the southpaw turned his season around with a 3.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He also lowered his FIP to 3.78, which shows that his post all-star break resurgence likely wasn’t the result of mere luck or his fielders playing better behind him.
The most significant change for Matz was that he started relying more on his slider. He increased his slider usage from 6.4 percent to 21.0 percent.
After this repertoire change, batters had a harder time squaring up against Matz. He dropped his hard-hit rate from 39.8 percent to 32.5 percent, and he stopped getting hammered with the long ball.
Matz got shelled with 18 homeruns allowed in the first half. But he sawed that total down to nine in the second half, thanks in-part to reducing his fly ball rate from 35.4 percent to 30.5 percent.
According to Fangraphs, Matz also experienced an uptick in his velocity. In the first half, his fastball speed was 92.9 MPH, but in the second half, his fastball velocity increased to 93.9 MPH.
Additionally, Matz increased his strikeout rate while reducing his walk rate. He struck out 21.6 percent of batters in the first half, compared to 22.8 percent in the second half. He also cut his walks down from eight percent to seven percent.
These are all encouraging signs for Matz, but are they sustainable? These trends come in a sample size of just 14 starts, so it’s important to not get too carried away. In the past, Matz disappointed fans many times before, so skepticism is justified.
A second round pick out of high school by the Mets in 2009, Matz always impressed scouts with his potential. He was ranked inside the MLB’s top 15 prospects in 2016 by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. He also shined in both his rookie and sophomore campaigns with a combined 13-8 record, 3.16 ERA, and 3.44 FIP.
But multiple arm injuries have plagued Matz and limited his upside. For example, a bone spur ended his 2016 season, and when he returned the following year, he posted a career worst 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. He told reporters at the time that he was “pitching through pain” all year.
Since his woeful 2017 season, Matz has made 30 starts in consecutive years, which has helped quite concerns about his durability. While hasn’t pitched at a dominant level with a combined 4.09 ERA over the past two years, his second half surge should give the Mets cautious optimism for Matz in 2020.
Even if he never lives up to the hype he received as a prospect, he should be in line for a solid season as the team’s fourth starter.
