Last week, I unveiled the 2020 ATC projections for New York Mets hitters. I am the creator of the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projection system, which has appeared on FanGraphs since 2017.
As a quick refresher, ATC is a “smart” aggregation model of other projection systems – a methodology similar to what Nate Silver does with his presidential forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com. The Average Total Cost Projection system (ATC) has been one of the most accurate projection systems available to the public over the past few seasons.
Today we will take a look at some early findings for Mets pitchers.
Before getting to the 2020 ATC projections for the Mets, let’s look at some individual results from last year.
Player FIP
Brad Brach 2.67
Jacob deGrom 2.67
Seth Lugo 2.70
Zack Wheeler 3.48
Noah Syndergaard 3.60
Justin Wilson 3.91
Robert Gsellman 4.13
Marcus Stroman 4.15
Edwin Diaz 4.51
Steven Matz 4.60
Jason Vargas 4.70
Jeurys Familia 4.88
Daniel Zamora 4.94
Luis Avilan 4.96
Chris Flexen 5.56
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a statistic that estimates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the performance of their defense. FIP is formulaically based on strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs allowed. FIP is an ERA approximator – which is more indicative of a player’s true skill than ERA alone.
Jacob deGrom in 2019 was of course the NL Cy Young award winner. His 2.67 FIP was a bit higher than his 2.43 ERA indicated, but still in elite territory. deGrom clearly has the goods to carry the team as an elite ace.
In the bullpen, Seth Lugo’s FIP was at career best levels. He improved upon his FIP in every single season of his career thus far. Last year’s 2.70 FIP was identical to his 2.70 ERA – so Lugo was every bit as good as his skills indicated.
As for fireballer Noah Syndergaard, his ERA increased last year to an all-time high of 4.28. That is over a full run higher than in any one season of his career. He may have had some bad luck in ’19 – his LOB% (strand rate) was below 70%, and his FIP was markedly better at 3.60. If the Mets defense can improve and Thor can limit the home runs given up – Noah could ascend to all-star levels once again. Limiting his stolen bases allowed would help too.
What encourages me the most about Syndergaard was that he threw a career high of over 197 innings last season – after only throwing 184 combined innings in the two seasons prior.
Let’s now take a look at the 2020 projections. Below are the 2020 ATC Projections for New York Mets pitchers:
Player Name IP BB HA W S K ERA WHIP
Jacob deGrom 200 46 162 14 0 248 2.80 1.04
Noah Syndergaard 186 46 177 12 0 191 3.80 1.20
Marcus Stroman 173 58 176 11 0 152 3.87 1.35
Rick Porcello 167 42 174 12 0 150 4.61 1.29
Steven Matz 153 51 152 9 0 147 4.19 1.33
Michael Wacha 76 30 76 4 0 68 4.41 1.39
Seth Lugo 73 17 61 4 6 85 3.19 1.07
Edwin Diaz 63 21 46 3 29 100 3.24 1.07
Dellin Betances 54 26 38 3 3 86 3.02 1.18
Justin Wilson 54 25 44 4 1 65 3.38 1.27
Jeurys Familia 54 28 49 3 1 58 4.17 1.42
Robert Gsellman 46 16 45 2 0 42 4.25 1.33
Brad Brach 44 19 42 2 1 47 4.26 1.37
Player Notes
The top 5 starters are projected to be deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Porcello and Matz. Michael Wacha is currently projected to be the sixth starter and long reliever.
Closer Edwin Diaz is expected to bounce back from his atrocious 1 st season as a New York Met. In 2019, although Diaz saved 26 games, he compiled a 1.38 WHIP to go along with an astronomical 5.59 ERA. He did manage to strike out 99 batters last season but gave up 15 homers in the process. For 2020, ATC is projecting a return to form with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP to go with 29 saves.
Only Seth Lugo is projected to be a better arm out of the Mets bullpen. ATC projects 73 innings for the curveball spin master – pitching to the tune of a 3.19 ERA. Lugo is likely the most valuable arm that Mets will deploy and will be used in high leverage situations.
Dellin Betances could turn out to be the Mets best free agent signing. ATC is projecting Dellin to strike out 86 batters in 54 innings (14 K/9) as he moves over to the Queens side of town. ATC projects a bullpen best 3.02 ERA for Betances in 2020.
Each of the remaining top bullpen arms project to be high strikeout pitchers. ATC projects Wilson, Familia, Gsellman and Brach to have close or above a 9 K/9 ratio – throwing a strikeout per inning.
Jacob deGrom is projected to have another ace-like season. ATC projects the back-to-back Cy Young award winner to strikeout 248 batters in 200 innings, including a sub-3.00 ERA. Obviously, if the Mets intend to make a playoff push, they have to count on deGrom to be healthy all season long.
Noah Syndergaard’s strikeout rate has been in decline over the past few seasons. He used to sport a 10+ K/9 rate, but it has hovered closer to 9 K/9 in recent years. ATC is projecting the same skill set as last year for Thor, but we are hoping for a bit more luck.
Marcus Stroman is a big key for the Mets’ pitching depth this season. He sported a 3.22 ERA last season (with 2 teams). This season, ATC projections model deterioration – Stroman is projected for a 3.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. We are hoping he is able to beat those figures, but even still, 173 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball for Stroman would give this rotation excellent depth.
Finally, the Mets’ rotation is rounded out by the veterans Steven Matz and Rick Porcello. ATC is projecting 21 wins between the two. It was important for the Brodie Van Waganen to invest in team rotation depth in the offseason.
The Mets also added Michael Wacha for depth as the sixth starter. Wacha projects for a better ERA than Porcello, so if Rick struggles early on – don’t be surprised to see Wacha step up and fill in.
You can find the full 2020 ATC projections for pitchers on the FanGraphs website under its projections section, or by clicking here.
