Well, here we are. There are no more regular season games to be played in 2019; the numbers are set in stone. Pitchers can no longer help their case with a strong start, or hurt their chances with a blow-up. What’s done is done, so let’s take a look at the best pitchers in the National League, and how likely they each are to earn the NL Cy Young Award.
Jacob deGrom – 11-8, 32 GS, 204 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 0.971 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 255 K, 7.9 bWAR, 7.0 fWAR
Poised to win his second consecutive Cy Young Award, Jacob deGrom seems to be the front-runner. He led National League pitchers with 255 strikeouts and a 7.9 bWAR, finished second in ERA, FIP, and WHIP, and finished towards the top in all other categories. He went at least seven innings in 19 of his 32 starts, and allowed more than three earned runs only five times.
In his last four starts, he went seven innings in each, racking up 35 strikeouts in 28 innings, allowing only one earned run and holding opposing batters to a .128/.155/.170 slash line. Nobody did a better job to solidify their Cy Young chances down the stretch, let alone most of the season, than deGrom.
Max Scherzer – 11-7, 27 GS, 172.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 1.027 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 243 K, 5.8 bWAR, 6.5 fWAR
A sure-thing Hall of Famer, Scherzer did well to build on his resume for that. Unfortunately, due to injuries (and deGrom being so good), he might not have done enough to build a resume for the 2019 NL Cy Young. Having missed time due to injuries, Mad Max only made 27 starts – five less than deGrom, and pitching 31 2/3 less innings. Despite that, his NL-leading 12.7 K/9 ratio left him with the third-most strikeouts in the NL.
The strikeouts and his MLB-best 2.45 FIP are big reasons why he’s still very much in this conversation despite missing time. This is the first season since 2012 he didn’t pitch at least 200 innings, and it hurt him. This will likely be the second-straight season he finished second in voting to deGrom, and will surely be his seventh straight season finishing fifth or higher in Cy Young voting.
Hyun-Jin Ryu – 14-5, 29 GS, 182.2 IP, 2.32 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.007 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 163 K, 5.3 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR
Another pitcher who’s resume is hurt by a lack of innings-pitched, Ryu was the no-doubt front-runner for most of the season. An injury, and later an implosion, hurt his chances, but he is still in the race thanks to his MLB-best ERA and MLB-best 1.2 BB/9. He is at an immense disadvantage to Scherzer and deGrom in many categories including strikeouts, FIP, and WAR, but if he can find voters that don’t care about strikeouts and disregard FIP in favor or ERA, he could garner votes.
These three aces will likely be the top three finalists in Cy Young voting, but many NL pitchers had outstanding seasons. These pitchers include Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 251 K, 6.5 bWAR), Jack Flaherty (33 GS, 2.75 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, 5.9 bWAR), Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.7 HR/9, 5.7 bWAR), and Patrick Corbin (14-7, 33 GS, 238 K, 5.7 bWAR).
