Series Preview: Mets Face Braves for Division Lead

The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves are set to begin an electrifying three-game series on Friday night. Both teams are on pace to win 100 games in the regular season, something that is very rare for two teams to accomplish in the same division. At one point, it looked as if the divisional race was over when the Mets held a 10.5 game on June 1. But the Braves have stormed all the way back to make this final week of the regular season so interesting.

Last night, reports came out that the Mets were calling up Francisco Álvarez, the number one prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline. That decision just adds to the hype around this series, as Mets fans have been waiting to see what he can do at the Major League level.

If the Mets want to control their own destiny heading into the final series of the year, all they need to do is win one of three games in Atlanta. That may seem like an easy task for a team that has won 98 games already, but their last trip to Atlanta resulted in losing three of four back in the middle of August. The Braves will provide a tough test for this Mets team, one they are more than prepared for at this stage of the year.

Earlier this week we examined what the different outcomes of the series would mean for the Mets drive to win the division.

Friday, September 30, 2022: RHP Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA)

Jacob deGrom was originally slated to take the ball in the second game of the series, but the Mets opted to move their ace up a day. The reasoning for that decision was never confirmed by manager Buck Showalter, though shuffling the rotation would allow deGrom to start the final game of the regular season if needed. With the Braves sending their best pitcher to the mound to open the series, the Mets felt they needed to do the same.

The right-hander is coming off his worst start of the season against the Oakland Athletics last Saturday. DeGrom allowed five runs to score on six hits in just four innings of work, raising his ERA from 2.32 to 2.93. A misjudged ball in the outfield by Jeff McNeil did not help his case in the first inning (four runs would score in the bottom of the first), but deGrom was still unable to pick it up after that.

DeGrom may have struggled in his last outing, but he has always pitched well against is the Atlanta Braves. The Mets starter has made ten starts at Truist Park in his career, owning a 4-3 record with a 2.86 ERA in 66 innings at that ballpark. His overall numbers against the Braves are even better, as he is 10-8 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 27 career starts. DeGrom will be making his third start of the season against the Braves, pitching to a 1-1 record with a 3.65 ERA in the previous two. Austin Riley has the best overall numbers against deGrom, hitting .294 with two home runs and five runs batted in across 17 at-bats.

Max Fried is having a sensational year at the front-end for the Braves rotation, as he continues to be one of the more underrated starters in the game. The left-handed starter earned his first All-Star selection of his career thanks to a 10-3 record with a 2.64 ERA in the first half. Fried has even better individual numbers since the All-Star break, owning a 3-4 record with a 2.21 ERA in ten starts.

The 2012 first-round draft pick out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, California had a very solid performance in his last start, despite taking the loss. Fried surrendered one run on five hits while striking out eight in five innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on September 22.

The 28-year-old starter has dominated when pitching at home in 2022, as he is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA in 17 starts. Fried starter is set to face the Mets for the fifth time this season, owning a 2-2 record with a 3.00 ERA across 24 innings in the first four outings. Mark Canha has great numbers against Fried in a small sample size, hitting .400 with two home runs and four runs batted in across ten at-bats.

Saturday, October 1, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (11-4, 2.13 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Wright (20-5, 3.18 ERA)

Max Scherzer is having one of his best statistical seasons of his career, despite only making 22 starts up to this point. His ability to go out there and give his team a chance to win each time he takes the mound has been critical to the overall success of the rotation. Scherzer could not have asked to be in a better position heading into the final week of the season, as he looks to help this group get over the hump.

The veteran right-hander does have better numbers at home (4-2 with a 1.67 ERA in ten starts) this season, but his performances on the road have been great as well. Scherzer is 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA in 12 starts across 75 innings away from Citi Field. His last two outings on the road were some of his best, as Scherzer only allowed one run to score in 12 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland Athletics.

The 38-year-old has made three starts against the Braves this year, owning a 3-0 record with a 2.21 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. Scherzer has made a total of 30 appearances against his divisional opponent over the course of his career, going 13-9 with a 3.69 ERA in 178 innings. A majority of the Braves hitters have struggled against Scherzer in the past, although Marcell Ozuna is hitting .255 with two home runs in 47 career at-bats against the former Washington National.

Kyle Wright has gone from a guy who was on the outside looking in to one of the key components of the Braves pitching staff in less than twelve months. Prior to this season, the most amount of innings the right-hander had ever thrown in any given year was 38 innings during the shortened 2020 campaign. Wright has not only thrown 175 1/3 innings in 29 starts this season, but leads all of baseball with 20 wins.

The 26-year-old starter performed really well in his last start, allowing two runs to score on just two hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies last Saturday. Wright is having the best season of his career, but one team that has been able to dominate the Braves starter is the Mets. In two starts against his divisional opponent, the former first-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt University is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings. Jeff McNeil has the best overall numbers against Wright, hitting .467 with three runs batted in across 15 at bats.

Sunday, October 2, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.27 ERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.29 ERA)

Chris Bassitt has separated himself and the clear number three in the Mets rotation throughout the second half of the year. The 33-year-old has not only been able to stay healthy, but has shown the ability to pitch deep into games. Bassitt has thrown a career-high 179 innings this season, which is exactly what the Mets were looking for when they acquired him in the offseason.

The right-hander was excellent in his return to Oakland, allowing two runs to score on six hits in eight innings of work last Friday. Bassitt has solid numbers on the road this season, as he owns a 9-2 record with a 3.68 ERA in 78 1/3 innings. The Mets pitcher is set to make his third start of the season against the Braves, pitching to a 1-1 record with a 2.77 ERA in the previous two appearances. The Braves have a lack of experience against Bassitt, as nobody in their lineup has more than six at-bats against him in their career.

Charlie Morton has had quite an interesting year, despite making a total of 30 starts. The 38-year-old has 200 strikeouts and is averaging 10.7 strikeouts per nine, but the home run ball is what has really hurt him. Morton has given up a career-high 26 home runs in 167 2/3 innings, eight more than any other season.

The right-hander struggled in his last start, as he gave up six runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies last Sunday. The Braves would go on to win that game 8-7 in 11 innings, but the team would like to see Morton pitch deeper into games heading into the postseason.

Morton is set to make his fourth start against the Mets this season, pitching to a 1-2 record with a 4.67 ERA in the previous three. The Braves starter has thrown a total of 91 2/3 innings against the Mets in his career, owning a 4-5 record with a 3.53 ERA in a total of 17 appearances. Pete Alonso has the best overall numbers against Morton, hitting .313 with three runs batted in across 16 at-bats.