Series Preview: Cardinals Head to Town for First Time Since Brawl

The St. Louis Cardinals (19-15) are coming to New York to face the Mets (23-13) in a four-game series. At the time of their last meeting back in April, the Mets were in the middle of their series win streak to start the season and they took two of three games from the Cardinals.

This time, the Mets are coming off their first series loss, after falling to the Mariners 2-1 in a three-game series. There was also some bad blood between these two teams in April, as the Mets took offense to multiple hit-by-pitches and then Nolan Arenado took offense to an inside pitch in his general vicinity.

The Mets were rolling up until their series loss to the Mariners, which broke a streak of ten unbeaten series. The series was tied at one game each when the Mets starting pitching and bullpen faltered in game three. The offense managed to score seven runs, but they ultimately fell to the Mariners 8-7.

Brandon Nimmo continued his solid start to the season. He has an 11-game hitting streak and a 26-game on base streak. He had five hits in 12 at-bats against the Mariners and was our Player of the Week. Starling Marte had a great game in the Mets only win, going 3-for-4 and ending up only a home run short of the cycle. He did strikeout in an inopportune moment on Sunday, in the bottom of the ninth with the tying and winning runs in scoring position, but on the whole he had a solid series.

The bullpen faltered for the Mets against the Mariners. Drew Smith gave up his first run of the season in game one, and Chasen Shreve faltered in games two and three. The Mets offense was able to overcome the bullpen woes in game two, thanks in part to a go-ahead home run off the bat of Patrick Mazeika. But there was no such luck in game three, and the four runs the bullpen gave up after starter Carlos Carrasco exited in the fourth inning proved insurmountable.

The Cardinals are coming into this series off a series win against the Giants. Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are the Cardinals’ hottest hitters, with slash lines of .312/.374/.600 and .312/.394/.496, respectively. The Cardinals did lose a series to the Orioles prior to facing the Giants, which was surprising, given the Orioles are 14-21 and are in a rebuild.

In the rubber game of their series against the Giants, the Cardinal’s bats exploded, crushing the Giants 15-6. They were able to knock out Giants’ starter Carlos Rodon, scoring eight runs and limiting him to 3 2/3 innings. Goldschmidt and Arenado both homered in the game, as did Yadier Molina. The blowout was large enough that Albert Pujols made his first career appearance as a pitcher, closing out the ninth inning for the Cardinals. He gave up a three-run homer and a solo home run, but still managed to get the final three outs.

Monday, May 16, 2022: RHP Trevor Williams (0-2, 5.73 ERA) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (3-1, 1.49 ERA)

Tylor Megill was supposed to start game one of this series for the Mets, but he was placed on the injured list on Sunday with biceps tendinitis. Williams has been serving as the long man in the bullpen, and will get the spot start in Megill’s place. Williams has pitched in 19 games against the Cardinals and has started 14 of them. He has a 5.64 ERA in those games. The Cardinals have good numbers against Williams, especially Arenado, Goldschmidt, Molina, and Harrison Bader.

Mikolas started against the Mets on April 25. He pitched seven scoreless innings and took a no-decision. Mikolas has only faced the Mets three times in his career, but he has a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings against them. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are the Mets with the best numbers against Mikolas, but their numbers are admittedly in a small sample size. Starling Marte has faced Mikolas the most of any of the current Mets, and has not fared well against him (.143/.171/.382 slash line in 35 at-bats).

(UPDATE: Monday’s game was postponed, so this matchup will likely take place Tuesday during the scheduled doubleheader.)

Tuesday, May 17, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. LHP Steven Matz (3-3, 6.40 ERA)

Walker pitched well in his last start against the Nationals, tossing seven scoreless innings and giving up only three hits. It was a nice bounce back from his previous start against the Phillies, where he lasted only four innings and gave up seven runs. Walker looked uncomfortable during his start against the Nationals, but insisted after the game that he was fine. Walker has started four games against the Cardinals in his career, and has a 2.52 ERA in 25 innings.

Matz has had a rough go of things since signing with the Cardinals, as his ERA attests. He has tossed a couple of great games, including scoreless efforts against the Brewers and the Royals. But he has also thrown some clunkers, including a two-inning eight run start against the Giants and a three-inning seven run start against the Pirates. Matz pitched against the Mets back in April and gave up four runs in four innings. He was bailed out by the Cardinals offense in that game, and though he took a no decision, the Cardinals won 10-5.

Wednesday, May 18, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (4-1, 2.66 ERA) vs. RHP Jordan Hicks (1-3, 4.15 ERA)

Scherzer took a no decision in his last start against the Mariners. Although the Mets ultimately lost the game, Scherzer had a solid outing, giving up one run in seven innings of work. He also pitched well in his game against the Cardinals back in April, tossing seven scoreless innings. Scherzer has pitched well against the Cardinals in his career, with a 2.55 ERA in 14 starts against them.

Hicks is still in the process of converting from a reliever to a starter. His numbers reflect this, as his longest start so far this year has been five innings against the Giants, which is also the longest outing of his career. Hicks has had a couple of scoreless outings this season, but, in general, he has not been as effective of a starter as he has been as a reliever. In his outing against the Mets in April, he went two innings and gave up two runs. In five other appearances against the Mets as a reliever, he has only given up one run.

Thursday, May 19, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (4-2, 2.34 ERA) vs. RHP Dakota Hudson (3-2, 3.06 ERA)

Bassitt started the only game the Mets won against the Mariners in their last series. He pitched 5 2/3 innings and gave up one run. He took a no decision because the bullpen faltered behind him. He pitched decently, but allowed too much traffic on the bases by giving up five hits and three walks, which upped his pitch count and ended his night early. In his April start against the Cardinals, Bassitt went six innings and did not give up any runs.

Hudson threw five shut-out innings against the Giants in his last start, which helped put an end to the Giants 6-game winning streak. Hudson has only faced the Mets twice in his career, and he has a 4.91 ERA in 11 innings in those two starts. Starling Marte has faced Hudson the most of any current Mets player, and he has .400 average in 10 at bats with one home run and three RBIs.

Prediction

The Mets and Cardinals will likely split this series. The Cardinals have the clear pitching advantage in game one and will likely win that game, but the Mets have the advantage in games two and three and should be able to take those two games. Game four will be close, and will decide whether the Mets win the series, or settle for a series split.