After playing two games last week in Houston, the Mets and Astros are meeting again for another two-game series. The Astros swept the Mets. This time, the Mets have home-field advantage, which will hopefully help lead to a better outcome.

The Mets are coming home off a series victory against the Marlins in Miami. New York won the first two games before losing in walk off fashion in the ninth inning on Sunday. Francisco Lindor had a decent series in Miami, driving in four runs on two hits in game one and going 2-5 while scoring a run in game two. Pete Alonso hit two home runs in game two of the series, which was nice to see after back-to-back hitless games for Alonso–one against the Astros and one against the Marlins.

Jeff McNeil has missed the last five games after tweaking his hamstring during the final game of the last home stand. Buck Showalter announced after the game on Sunday that he was confident McNeil would return against the Astros on Tuesday. And, as confirmed by the lineup, McNeil is set to return to action tonight.

After sweeping the Mets in two games, the Astros went on to face the Yankees in a four-game series. It was a battle of the two best teams in the American League, and perhaps a preview of playoff games to come. The teams split the series: the Astros won games two and three, tossing a combined no-hitter in game three, while the Yankees won games one and four, both coming in walk-off fashion off Aaron Judge‘s bat.

When the Mets and Astros Met last week, Astros star rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña was on the injured list with a left thumb injury. He will be back in the lineup this series against the Mets. He was activated off the injured list on June 26 and played in the last game against the Yankees. Peña has had a solid year for the Astros, with a .277/.332/.472 slash line at the plate.

While getting Peña back is undoubtedly a boost for the Astros, they have other injury troubles to deal with. Star DH Yordan Alvarez is still dealing with a sore hand that he suffered while swinging on June 18. Of course, Alvarez hasn’t let the injury slow him down much, as he’s hit four home runs and driven in seven runs since the injury occurred. The Astros are also facing an injury to star outfielder Michael Brantley, who exited the final game of the series against the Yankees early because of discomfort in his right shoulder. Brantley is batting .288/.370/.416 so far this year, with five home runs and 26 RBIs.

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Tuesday, June 28, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 4.42 ERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.90 ERA)

Carrasco’s most recent start was last week against the Astros. He went 2 1/3 innings and gave up five runs in a game the Mets ultimately lost 8-2. Five days earlier, Carrasco went 6 1/3 innings against the Marlins, giving up three runs in a game the Mets won 10-4. Carrasco’s June has been marked by alternating good and poor starts. Since his last start against the Astros was his worst start in June, hopefully Tuesday’s start is one of his best.

Valdez’s last start was against the Yankees. He went six innings and gave up three runs. Valdez has tossed exactly six innings in all four of his June starts this season. He also has not thrown less than six innings in any game since April 19, when he went 4 1/3 innings and gave up six runs against the Angels. It will be interesting to see if the top of the Mets lineup, which has been forcing opposing starters lately to work hard in the first inning, can manage to be the first team in months to knock Valdez out before the sixth inning.

Wednesday, June 29, 2022: TBD vs. RHP Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.22 ERA)

Verlander made one start in the abbreviated 2020 season before having Tommy John surgery in September of 2020 and missing the entire 2021 season. There were concerns about his age at the time of the surgery (37) and how well he would recover from it, but it’s fair to say that he has exceeded expectations in his return this season. In his most recent start against the Yankees, Verlander gave up one run in seven innings of work. Verlander has 84 strikeouts in 14 starts in 2022 and has given up one run or less in eight of his starts.

Given the multiple off days since the two teams played last week (and another to come Thursday), the Mets have the chance to reset the rotation. The team plays 17 games in 17 straight days ahead of the All-Star break.

Trevor Williams is a candidate to pitch Wednesday, but Taijuan Walker could also go on regular rest. That would allow Chris Bassitt, David Peterson and Carlos Carrasco (or Max Scherzer) to pitch in the weekend series against the Rangers.

Prediction

The Mets are facing tough starting pitching in this two-game series. I would love to predict that the Mets will return the favor and sweep the Astros like they were swept in Houston. Unfortunately, facing Valdez and Verlander makes a sweep by the Mets unlikely. A split of the series seems like a more reasonable prediction.