Luis Severino
Position: SP
Age: 29 (2/20/1994)
2023 Traditional Stats: 19 G, 89.1 IP, 6.65 ERA, 1.646 WHIP, 79 SO, 35 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 65 ERA+. 18.9 SO%, 8.2 BB%, 5.96 xERA, 6.14 FIP, 4.83 xFIP, -0.6 fWAR, -1.5 bWAR
Rundown
The former two-time All Star starting pitcher fell on extremely tough times in 2023 as he tried to come back from a plethora of injuries. However, prior to that, Luis Severino posted excellent seasons in 2017, 2018, and 2022. Now, on the open market, and with rumors ramping up, teams who are pursuing the right-handed pitcher surely hope they get the All-Star caliber pitcher of his past rather than the 2023 version of the former New York Yankee.
Speaking of swirling rumors, according to Will Sammon of the Athletic, the New York Mets are one of the several teams interested in the 29-year-old. Specifically, they are planning to meet with Severino soon.
As mentioned, Severino really started making a name for himself in the 2017 season. During that season, he posted a 14-6 record with a 2.98 ERA. He struck out 230 over 193 1/3 innings and finished third in Cy Young voting while appearing in his first All-Star game. He followed 2017 with another All-Star appearance in 2018 where he posted a 3.39 ERA and 220 strikeouts across 191 1/3 innings. Overall, Severino was one of the best starting pitchers in the game over that two-year stretch.
However, the injury bug struck early in 2019 as he was only able to make parts of three starts. He was shutdown and missed most of the season with shoulder and latissimus dorsi muscle injuries. Then, in February of 2020, he underwent Tommy John surgery, marking the beginning of even more rehab.
Finally, in 2022, Severino returned to the mound and performed well. He was able to toss 102 innings posting a very strong 3.18 ERA to go along with 112 strikeouts. His xERA of 2.94 further exemplified how strong he was. Finally, back from all the injuries, Severino looked as if he was returning to his pre-injury self after the terrific 19 starts in 2022. This, in return, led to the Yankees picking up his $15 million team option for the 2023 season.
To put it simply, 2023 was a disaster for Severino. He began the season on the injured list with a lat strain, something that has plagued him in the past. As a result, he did not make his first major-league start until May 21. Severino was then limited to only 89 1/3 innings before being shutdown with yet another injury, this time a high-grade left oblique strain.
Over those 89 1/3 innings in 2023, nothing went right. Severino posted a 6.65 ERA allowing 113 hits while only striking out 79. His strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and his walk rate was the second-highest of his career. All the underlying metrics confirmed that his season was just as woeful as the traditional numbers indicated; 6.14 FIP and 5.96 xERA, among other poor figures.
If there was even a slight silver lining it may have been the fact Severino was showing signs of life over his last four starts of the 2023 season. He posted two clean outings, allowing only two runs in his final appearance of the season. Over those last four games, he posted a 2.49 ERA over 21 2/3 innings.
Luis Severino. Photo credits USA Today
Contract
Coming off a broken, career-worst season, projections for Severino’s next contract is what you’d expect. That being a one-year, “prove-it” deal. MLB Trade Rumors has their projection set at one-year, $14 million. Meanwhile, Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projections has a deal of one year at $10 million.
Somewhere closer to the MLB Trade Rumor’s projection would make sense, as there is still a chance Severino can mold back into the pitcher he once was, which would be worth much more than that $14 million figure. Regardless, the one-year length of the deal helps bring a lot less risk for an extremely risky player.
Recommendation
There is a lot of risk in the player here. There is no telling if Severino is going to be able to regain the form of his prior self. The 2023 season was not just bad, he was one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Then, to top it off, Severino found himself hurt once again to end the year.
A plus for whatever team takes on this potential project, the deal itself should be relatively low risk. It would be surprising if Severino nets more than a one-year deal, unless there is some type of team option involved. Should the Mets be the team that dishes out the “prove-it” deal?
Well, it is well documented how much work the Mets rotation needs. As it stands, New York only has two of their five rotation spots sorted. That is two-to-three external options new president baseball of operations, David Stearns, will need to address. Would Severino be able to address one of these roles? It comes down to not only if he will be able to stay healthy, but if he does, if he can regain some type of his previous form?
That is a lot of question marks, and for a team who desperately needs to fix their starting pitching, there are definitely a lot more safer options out there. However, if Severino is able to regain his previous form for whatever team brings him in, it may end up being one of the more valuable contracts in the majors next season.
