Potential Non-Tendered Fits For The Mets

The annual 40-man roster crunch was at center stage on Friday as teams scrambled to make decisions on whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As a result, the free agent pool saw an influx of players enter the market with a chance to reshape their careers after being non-tendered.

Let’s take a look at five players from that bunch who best fit the New York Mets needs heading into the 2024 season.

Brandon Woodruff, SP

The small-market Milwaukee Brewers made the tough decision of cutting Brandon Woodruff loose in his final year of arbitration following a shoulder surgery that will likely hold him out for a majority of the 2024 season. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that Milwaukee engaged in trade talks centered around Woodruff ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline, but nothing materialized, and the club decided against keeping him around at his estimated price tag of $11.6 million in what’s shaping up to be a transition year for the Brewers.

Woodruff, one of the higher-profile players to be non-tendered in recent memory, is a candidate for a multi-year deal that would allow him to rehab at his own pace, similar to the one the Mets handed out to John Curtiss while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery ahead of the 2022 season.

Limited to 11 starts in 2023, Woodruff posted a 2.28 ERA and 3.60 FIP with a 9.94 K/9 and a 1.4 fWAR. He owns a career 3.74 ERA across 115 starts and garnered All-Star honors in both 2019 and 2021 when he finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

While Woodruff would have minimal impact in 2024, he should be a logical target for the Mets this offseason due to the connection and familiarity with David Stearns as well as the pressing need for established starting pitchers in the near future.

Rowdy Tellez, 1B/DH

Another player with ties to Stearns, Rowdy Tellez was non-tendered by the Brewers following a 2023 campaign in which he slashed .215/.291/.376 with 13 home runs and a 78 wRC+ across 351 plate appearances. He saw a drop-off in his numbers across the board from his career year in 2022, where he hit .219/.306/.461 with 35 home runs and a 110 wRC+.

Tellez, whom Milwaukee acquired via trade from the Toronto Blue Jays in July of 2021 following an injury to Daniel Vogelbach, may once again make sense as a potential addition for Stearns in a similar situation. He has proven to be a plus-hitter against right-handers throughout his career with a 103 wRC+, in addition to showing the ability to hold his own against southpaws.

The Mets, yearning for thump from the designated hitter spot, could potentially benefit from a low risk move by banking on Tellez re-gaining his prior form.

Adam Cimber, RP

Adam Cimber is one of the last of a dying breed of submarine pitchers and has leveraged his eccentric delivery into long-term success in the majors. The 33-year-old was let go by the Blue Jays after a disastrous season where he posted a 7.40 ERA and -0.6 fWAR in 22 appearances, but his track record suggests that showing is more of an abnormality rather than the norm for Cimber.

After Toronto acquired him from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline in 2021, Cimber posted a 1.69 ERA in 39 appearances before recording a 2.80 ERA and 0.9 fWAR in a league-leading 77 appearances in 2022.

Cimber typically excels at missing barrels and keeping the ball on the ground thanks to an effective sinker that has emerged as his most consistent pitch. Velocity isn’t a strong suit of his as a result of his delivery, though, as he averaged just over 85 mph on both of his fastballs last season. He has also exhibited impressive control to the tune of a career 2.22 BB/9 rate, making him a seamless fit for a Mets bullpen in need of quality bullpen arms while also carrying two years of control.

Brandon Hughes, RP

Brandon Hughes, despite a down 2023 season with the Chicago Cubs, is among the highest-upside arms who were non-tendered on Friday. Hughes enjoyed a strong rookie year in 2022 where he posted a 3.12 ERA and 3.78 xFIP in 57 appearances, but a 7.24 ERA in 17 appearances last year ultimately coerced the Cubs into cutting bait. The 27-year-old left-handed reliever has struggled with command and been susceptible to hard contact, but there are promising aspects of his profile.

Hughes isn’t a particularly hard thrower and largely utilizes a two-pitch arsenal with a four-seam fastball and slider, the latter of which generated a 53.0% whiff rate in 2023. His fastball finished in the 70th percentile for spin rate to go with a 96% active spin rate, perhaps suggesting there’s untapped potential in the pitch. Hughes has already demonstrated that he can generate swings-and-misses at an excellent pace, meaning it’s just a matter of piecing the whole thing together.

With five years of control left, giving Hughes a shot would be in the Mets’ best interest.

Spencer Turnbull, SP

Once a staple of the Detroit Tigers’ rotation, Spencer Turnbull has been mired by injury in recent years. Turnbull posted a 4.25 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 6.1 fWAR through the first 54 games of his career, but Tommy John surgery kept him out for the majority of the 2021 season and all of 2022. He made his return last season and started seven games with a 7.26 ERA, though he was placed on the 60-day injured list with neck discomfort in May and would end up being demoted to Triple-A towards the end of the year.

It remains to be seen if Turnbull has much left in the tank, but he would be a logical candidate to provide depth at the backend of a Mets rotation that may require six starters depending on the moves they make this offseason. His fastball velocity last season was down a tick from where it was pre-injury and his slider, likely his best off-speed offering, wasn’t nearly as effective as it has been in the past while his home run numbers also saw a spike.

There were some positives to take away, however, as Turnbull’s groundball rate stayed above league-average and he avoided giving up hard contact consistently. Durability is a question mark as is his true ceiling, but Turnbull may be worth a gamble for Stearns and company.